Suchergebnisse

El comportamiento electoral es un tema relevante en las ciencias del comportamiento; mientras que la Economía Conductual ofrece un marco teórico-metodológico para el estudio de la conducta marcada por el carácter limitado de la racionalidad. Los sesgos cognitivos como categoría científica contribuyen a la explicación de las determinantes del comportamiento económico, al brindar una oportunidad de aplicación al comportamiento electoral. La investigación analiza desde el paradigma cualitativo la influencia de los sesgos cognitivos en el comportamiento electoral, como criterios determinantes de la falta de racionalidad y comportamientos desviados. Se emplea una perspectiva analítica, interpretativa y crítica, garantizando las proposiciones con respaldo teórico y fidelidad hacia la lógica del fenómeno estudiado. Para la recogida de información se realizó una búsqueda bibliográfica a través de la identificación de autores destacados en las categorías: Comportamiento electoral, Economía conductual y Sesgos cognitivos. Los resultados apuntan hacia la influencia de los sesgos cognitivos en el comportamiento electoral, entre estos se encuentran: efecto de encuadre, efecto de anclaje, factores que incomodan, disponibilidad, exceso de confianza, exceso de optimismo, efecto cortoplacista y aversión a la pérdida. Las conclusiones reconocen la necesidad de continuar profundizando en esta temática, así como de realizar investigaciones de campo

Posters have been used in political communication for more than a century, and are still an important element in the election campaigns. However, few studies have been devoted to the way in which text and image work together in order to obtain the rhetorical goal of making voters vote for a specific party. In this study, election posters in the 2002 general election in Sweden from all parties represented in the Swedish parliament are analysed. The context of this specific sample of political communication is described through a sociological approach inspired by Pierre Bourdieu, and through theories of political marketing. The model for analysis of the posters combine semiotics and rhetoric in order to present a model capable of analysing both text and image, and the way in which they are used in order to influence and persuade voters. The conclusions are that Swedish parties favour textual messages and not visual elements, and that when visual elements are used, these are mostly portraits of candidates. So apparently, the predominance of visual elements in advertising does not show in election posters. Neither can one claim that personalisation is a predominant element, as the total percentage of posters depicting candidates is quite low. The tendency towards negative campaigning seen in earlier elections is not present in the 2002 posters, and the rhetoric is mostly epideictic and thus aimed at keeping already convinced voters rather than attracting new ones. This might indicate that the posters have lost their role as means of attracting new voters and have become more of an "internal" affair, telling the party's voters, in a way which presupposes shared points of view, that the party is there to be voted for as always. The posters thus fulfil a symbolic function of binding together adherents rather than attracting newcomers.

El artículo analiza el discurso del candidato Andrés Arauz en la campaña electoral para la Presidencia del Ecuador del 2021 a través de la red social TikTok, durante noviembre 2020-abril 2021. Su objetivo es difundir la investigación y los resultados obtenidos respecto a la utilización de esta red social por parte del candidato en la última contienda electoral. La investigación se basa en una metodología cuali-cuantitativa, en la aplicación de técnicas como la revisión documental y el análisis de contenido y en el análisis en dos momentos, la campaña para la primera vuelta electoral y la campaña para la segunda vuelta electoral. El resultado evidencia que, en primera instancia de quién más se hablaba era del candidato como principal eje, mientras que en el caso dos se evidenció un cambio significativo puesto que se habría incorporado, en igual medida dentro del mensaje, al partido político del presidenciable y al pueblo ecuatoriano, dejando en segundo plano el tema de Arauz como candidato. Entre los principales hallazgos se encontró que se buscó transmitir el mensaje a través de contenidos que le permitieran llegar al público joven, pero sin un equilibrio en la producción de contenidos.

Electoral autocracies have become the world's most common form of non-democratic rule. In hegemonic autocracies in particular, where the president, or his party, always wins by more than 70 percent of the vote, the electoral process comes across as mere window-dressing. Still, both the regime and the opposition take elections seriously. Why? What role do elections play? The article deals with this question while focusing on the Azerbaijani 2013 presidential election, and consists of three parts. The first is a theoretical introduction dedicated to electoral autocracies and authoritarian stability. The next summarizes the election, stressing its purpose for the opposition. The third part analyses whether and how the election contributed to strengthening the authoritarian regime. The study concludes that developments during and after the election year are an illustration of what in previous research is sometimes referred to as the politics of insecurity. Even though the opposition "lost", the relative success of their campaign indicated that change might, after all, be possible. The regime, depending on regular multi-party elections for its democratic alibi, did not appreciate the uncertainty and tried to minimize it by using the "three pillars" on which authoritarian states' stability can be said to rest: legitimacy, repression and cooptation.

This study deals with the issue of democratization in Latin America during the 20th century, and in particular the role of the left in this process. The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of the left as a political actor in the process of democratization toward the deepening of the democratic rule in Latin America. The research questions are: what role did the left have in the transitions to electoral democracies during the 20th century in Latin America? Why did the left have the role it had in the transitions? How does the left's view of democracy affect the transition to electoral democracy, and the further democratization to deepen democratic rule? What structural constraints affect the left's ability to deepen democratic rule? A comparative qualitative method and different theoretical concepts of democracy, democratization, elite perspective, mobilization and organizations have been used, and examples from different Latin American cases are given. One empirical conclusion is that the role of the left in the transitions to electoral democracies varies from participation with active left leaders, collective left actions, to not have any significant role at all. A second empirical conclusion is that in cases where left wing governments have tried to enforce a model of participatory democracy, the result has been " coup d'état" or rebellions conducted by military forces and supported by the economic elite and the United States of America. In other cases when left parties in government instead have remained within the framework of an elite democracy, the result has rather been stabilization of the liberal democratic rule. The main theoretical conclusions are as follows: the theoretical discussion about democratic consolidation and the deepening of democracy have to consider that different actors' (in this study the left) preferences for various models of democracy differ; the actors' view of democracy matter in the game of democratic development and democratic consolidation; and the relations between the elite actors' preferences for different models of democracy determine the outcome of a specific form of democratic model (in this study electoral democracy, liberal democracy or participatory democracy).

How is a hybrid state maintained? Today, several countries undergoing democratic reforms are also backsliding towards greater authoritarianism. This article draws on election data from Macedonia and Albania to show how a country can display elements of democratic improvement and democratic deterioration within the same policy field. The Albanian case shows how the political parties, with an anchoring in legislation, work to make the electoral administration politically dependent. This enables the political parties to exert control over central aspects of the distribution of power. By contrast, the case of Macedonia shows how undemocratic behaviors can become institutionalized and gradually accepted, even as other features of the electoral process undergo improvement. Common to both countries are patterns of patronage that serve to maintain a unique organization of power: the democratic façade is improved, but the undemocratic behavior remains.

During the past two decades right-wing populist parties have made substantial electoral gains in many West European countries. In Sweden the success of such parties has been limited compared to, eg, Denmark & Norway. In 1998 an electoral coalition of local populist parties, "Skanes Val," in southern Sweden gained 4.1% of the votes in the regional elections & six mandates in the regional assembly. However, the coalition was split already a year before the subsequent election in 2002. One of the factions started technical cooperation with the ring-wing extremist party "Sverigedemokraterna" during the period leading up to the 2002 election. The reasons for the split of the coalition & the reasons why one of the factions chose to cooperate with "Sverigedemokraterna" are analyzed using the two dimensions right-wing populism vs right-wing extremism & nationalism vs regionalism. While both factions were clearly populist, they strongly differ in nationalism/regionalism. This is one plausible reason why more Swedish nationalist factions chose to cooperate with the nationalist party "Sverigedemokraterna.". 2 Tables, 1 Figure, 47 References. Adapted from the source document.

This thesis aims at investigating the relationship between citizens' attempts to influence decision-making in a democracy and the representativeness of policy outcome. The question is to what extent the degree of citizen political activity, in terms of expressing policy preferences, affects: 1. The policy agreement between citizens and their elected representatives. 2. The perceptual accuracy of citizen opinions among representatives. It is argued that both policy agreement and perceptual accuracy are potentially important prerequisites to attain responsiveness in a democratic political system. The important normative question of the thesis is based on the fact that citizen's attempts to influence public decision-making often seems to be biased in favour of social groups already rich in resources. If political participation is socially biased the question is if this participation also will cause a bias in the opinions articulated towards decisionmakers and in the end also in a biased political influence. Earlier research on the topic of this thesis has basically been limited to the classical study published by Sidney Verba and Norman H. Nie in 1972: Participation in America. Political democracy and social equality. In order to examine this issue further, a survey was conducted in 40 Swedish municipalities. Included was a random sample of citizen from each municipality as well as a sample including all elected councilors in the municipalities. The effects of four different channels of citizen preference articulation is examined 1) participation in local elections, 2) non-electoral political participation, 3) activities and membership in voluntary associations and 4) everyday contacts between citizens and their elected representatives. The results of the empirical analyses show that electoral participation does not have a positive effect on either policy agreement or perceptual accuracy in Swedish municipalities. The main tendency as regards the non-electoral channels of citizen preference articulation indicates a linear and positive effect on the policy agreement between citizens and representatives but no similar positive effect on the perceptual accuracy.

Up until 2020 Aleksandr Lukashenka's authoritarian regime had ruled Belarus for 26 years without major challenges. Thus, the popular mobilization that took shape in connection with the August 2020 presidential election came as a surprise. It was not the first time that elections in Belarus were not fair – but it was the first time that large sectors of the population reacted openly. Six months later, Belarusians all over the country were still contesting the falsified results. What contributed to this mobilization and politicization of a previously largely apolitical society? Why does that development represent such a serious threat to the authoritarian system? This study sees the Belarusian presidential election and its aftermath as illustrating the 'politics of uncertainty' of electoral authoritarian regimes. Because of the intrinsic insecurity of authoritarian systems, all regular elections in that context entail risks, which in theory might lead to change. In Belarus, the emergence of latent threats to the regime's legitimacy in the form of social cleavages and an economic crisis, combined with the fundamental dynamics of the 'election game', amplified this instability. The election served as the starting point for a process of transformation that became the most serious threat ever faced by the Lukashenka regime.

De senaste valen är det fler väljare som röstar på ett annat parti än det de gillar bäst, och ett skäl till detta kan vara strategi. I denna rapport analyseras förväntningar, olika strate­gi­ska skäl för röstning och väljarströmmar i riksdagsvalet 2018. Kristdemokraterna står fort­farande ut som ett parti som gynnas av strategisk röstning. En förklaring till detta års uppgång är ett lagom osäkert läge runt spärren i valkampanjens slutskede och fokus på regeringsskifte. Samtidigt var det få som "kastade bort" sina röster och vänster­blocket lyckades denna gång lyckades koordinera sina röster bättre än 2014. Analyserna tyder också på en förhållandevis stor grupp röstade strategiskt på Socialdemokraterna. I valet 2018 röstade 15 procent av väljarkåren på ett annat parti än de eller det parti de sade sig gilla bäst. ; Many Swedes vote for another party than the one he or she likes most, and one reason for this is strategic considerations. This report investigates voters' expectations, reasons to vote strategically and party support shifting in the 2018 Swedish general election. In line with the most recent elections, the small right-wing party Christian Democrats benefited from high shares of strategic votes. This behavior was associated with the party's clear focus on shifting government and having opinion poll levels just at the four percent electoral threshold. Relatively few "wasted" their votes on parties that did finally not reach the electoral threshold. In particular, left-wing voters managed to coordinate their votes better than in the previous election (2014). The analyses also indicate that a relatively large share voted strategically for the Social Democrats. In the 2018 Swedish General Election, 15 percent of the electorate voted for another party than the party or parties they said they preferred.

Herbert Tingsten (1896-1973) was one of the leading political science scholars in Sweden during the 20th century. In 1935-1946 he was a professor at Stockholm University. In 1946-1959 he was the editor-in-chief of the leading liberal newspaper in Sweden, the Dagens Nyheter. Tingsten's extensive scholarly production can be summed up in four groups. The first group describes the political institutions and rules, e.g. his doctoral thesis about referendum in the United States (1923). The second group contains analyses of political ideas. The third group combines institutional descriptions and analyses of ideas, primarily democratic and totalitarian ones. The fourth group, lastly, consists primarily of Political Behavior (1937). This book, a classic in the study of electoral statistics, gave Tingsten a lasting international acknowledgement. Adapted from the source document.

In 1973, the Swedish Centre party managed to attract 25.1 per cent of the votes in that year's election. A quarter of a century later the once agrarian party hovered precariously close to the four per cent election threshold. During the long & unbroken decline, the party was a member of the center-right bloc -- yet was intermittently drawn to the Social Democrats. Throughout, it retained a strong focus on countryside, agrarian & environmental issues (with a particular emphasis on the decommissioning of nuclear power plants). By the late 1990s it was clear that the party's electoral strategy needed an urgent & comprehensive overhaul. In this effort we analyze this overhaul (including a rejection of left-leaning tendencies); its structural antecedents; its intrinsic success potential; & its, & the party's, future prospects. Adapted from the source document.

The paper argues that the Swedish 'neo-liberal' party (Moderaterna) has adapted its policies because of the popularity of the 'universal' Swedish welfare state. The party has come to accept that the modern welfare state is irreplaceable. We furthermore argue that the party's moderate electoral platform in 2006 is earnest. In the "short run" the party can only hope to achieve incremental changes & it recognizes this. Simultaneously however, the party in the "long run" wants to gradually change society. Over time the party in its rhetoric & ideological statements has emphasized the short & the long run differently. These differences between the 'neo-liberal' 1980s & 2006 should not conceal that the mechanism of welfare popularity largely remains the same. The party's actual policy proposals tend to suggest incremental changes only in both periods. Adapted from the source document.

In 1959, the Swedish Social Democratic Party prevailed over the bourgeois parties in the great battle for supplementary pensions (ATP). In the 1990's, however, the party leadership decided to abolish the ATP in close cooperation with the bourgeois parties. The thesis poses the following question: "What prospects did the Social Democratic leadership have to gain support for the ATP-reform in the 1950's, and then for the quite dissimilar pension reform in the 1990's, and how can differences between these prospects be explained?" In order to explain the kind of party change pointed out in the problem statement, this thesis proposes a theoretical perspective that focuses on the tension between different roles played by the party leadership on different arenas. The hypothesis, that is tested in the thesis, is that early decisions create different constrains for future decisions on different arenas. The thesis has two main conclusions. The first conclusion is that the decision to implement the generous ATP-system in the 1950's in practice laid the ground for the subsequent abolishment of that same system in the 1990's. The second conclusion is that the pragmatism, always displayed on the parliamentary arena, has not been visible on the electoral arena or on the party arena. The party leadership plays different roles on different arenas, and over time these different roles have become hard, if not impossible, to combine. The result of this was that decisions on the parliamentary arena were decoupled from messages and rhetoric about these decisions on the party arena, and on the electoral arena. The pension reform in the 1990's was quite a different decision compared to the popular introduction of the ATP-system. Both of these decisions, however, were attempts by the party leadership to maximize support on each arena. The possibilities for succeeding in this venture were greatly reduced in the 1990's. Instead of one party striving for one goal, Swedish Social Democracy in the 1990's appeared as two or three parties, with different objectives and goals.