Suchergebnisse

The author analyzes the process of the NATO expansion in Europe following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. Paradoxically, after the end of the cold war, the security conditions in Europe have not improved. On the contrary, the danger of military conflicts has increased. That is why most former communist countries, including the newly created states which emerged after the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, have been trying to eliminate this danger and strengthen their security by joining NATO. The Russian Federation is the main opponent of the NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, particularly on the states which came into being after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The author describes in detail the geostrategical and geopolitical implications of the admittance of the first group of Eastern-European countries into the NATO (Poland, Czech Republic and Romania), as well as the prospects of the NATO expansion onto the other countries in the region. He sees the American initiative for the cooperation in Southeastern Europe as a complement to the process of the NATO expansion. In the end he criticizes NATO's process of selection of new members, the process which has left Croatia (for the time being) in a sort of a geostrategical void. (SOI : PM: S. 118)

Monitoring the readiness of countries for the application of information and communication technologies (ICT) has a long tradition. It is reflected through the application of various synthetic indicators - indexes, which were created for these purposes by various organizations and associations. These indicators are expected to reflect new trends in the field of ICT, and also to measure the readiness and achievements of individual countries in the ICT usage. The aim of this paper is to show significant changes in the structure of one of the most well-known indices in this area - Network Readiness Index, which has been in use for almost two decades. The paper emphasizes the application of this index in monitoring the process of digital transformation at the level of economic and social development of individual countries, especially in the COVID crisis. Also, the tendencies of this process in the post-COVID period are considered. Monitoring the process of digital transformation at the country level is characterized by a multidimensional approach. In this sense, the complex structure of the NRI latest version is presented. It is based on 60 indicators grouped in four areas: technological trends, human resources capacity, government regulations and the impact of new technologies on the economy, quality of life and achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals adopted in 2015. Also, the paper discusses the position of Serbia and other Western Balkans countries measured in the context of the newly created index, and presents a comparison of these countries with European Union countries. ; Praćenje spremnosti zemalјa za primenu informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija (IKT) ima višegodišnju tradiciju. Ona se ogleda kroz primenu različitih sintetičkih pokazatelјa – indeksa, koje su za te svrhe kreirale različite organizacije i asocijacije. Od ovih pokazatelјa se očekuje da, sa jedne strane, odražavaju nove trendove u IKT oblasti, a sa druge strane, da mere spremnost i postignuća pojedinih zemalјa u primeni tih novih tehnologija. Cilј ovog rada jeste da prikaže značajne promene u strukturi jednog od najpoznatijih indeksa za praćenje spremnosti zemalјa za primenu informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija - Network Readiness Index (NRI), koji je u upotrebi skoro dve decenije. U radu je posebno naglašeno sagledavanje primene ovog indeksa u praćenju procesa digitalne transformacije na nivou ekonomskog i društvenog razvoja pojedinih zemalјa, posebno u uslovima kovid krize. Takođe, sagledane su i tendencije ovog procesa u postkovid periodu. Praćenje procesa digitalne transformacije na nivou zemalјa karakteriše višedimenzionalni pristup. U tom smislu prikazana je složena struktura najnovije verzije ovog indeksa koja se zasniva na 60 indikatora, a koji su sintetički povezani u četiri oblasti: tehnološki trendovi, kapaciteti lјudskih resursa za primenu novih tehnologija, značaj vladinih regulativa, kao i uticaj novih tehnologija na ekonomiju, kvalitet života i ostvarenje Održivih razvojnih cilјeva Ujedinjenih nacija (UN Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs) prihvaćenih 2015. godine. Takođe, u radu je razmatrana pozicija Srbije i ostalih zemalјa Zapadnog Balkana merena u kontekstu novokreiranog indeksa, i prikazano je poređenje ovih zemalјa sa zemlјama Evropske unije.

Пољопривреда са производњом хране је једна од најважнијих стратешких грана привреде која има за циљ производњу и снабдевање становништва квалитетном и безбедном храном. Oрганскa пољопривредa и производњa хране датира са почетка 20. века када се због прекомерне, неконтролисане и нестручне употребе хемијских средстава у производњи хране јавила потреба за алтернативним поступцима. Према дефиницији, коју даје Codex alimentarius oрганска пољопривреда је холистички систем управљања производњом хране, којим се избегава употреба вештачких ђубрива, пестицида и генетски модификованих организама, смањује загађење ваздуха, земљишта и воде, и оптимизује здравље и продуктивност биљака, животиња и људи. Заснива се на четири принципа: принцип здравља, екологије, правичности и бриге. Органска производња са једне стране обезбеђује јавна добра, која доприносе заштити животне средине и добробити животиња, а са друге доприноси развоју сеоских подручја (Регулатива ЕC 834/2007). Површине под органском производњом у Републици Српској у 2019.години су износиле око 560 ha (обрадива површина, ливаде, пашњаци), односно само 0,06 % од укупне обрадиве површине. Број сертификованих произвођача хране у Републици Српскоj варира из године у годину, али се креће до 50. Циљ рада је да се укаже на значај органске производње и могућност пласирања хране на тржишту Европске уније и других развијених земаља. Биће описано која висококвалитетна храна се органски производи у Републици Српској, сертификација производње, законска и подзаконска регулатива која се примењује, као и подстицајне мере које су значајне да би се органска производња унапредила у Републици Српској. ; Agriculture accompanied by food production is one of the most important strategic branches of the economy, it has the production and supply of quality and a safe food. The idea of organic agriculture and food production dates back to the 20th century, when due to excessive, uncontrolled and unprofessional use of chemicals in food production, appeared a need of an alternative procedures. Organic farming is an integrated system of high quality food production based on the highest environmental practices that are socially accepted and economically profitable. According to the definition given by the Codex alimentarius, organic agriculture is a holistic food production management system that avoids the use of fertilizers, pesticides and genetically modified organisms, reduces air, soil and water pollution, and optimizes the health and productivity of independent plant, animal and human communities. It is based on four principles: the principle of health, ecology, fairness and care. Organic production, on the one hand provides public goods, which contributes to the protection of the environment and animal welfare, and on the other hand contributes to the development of rural areas (EC Regulation 834/2007). Areas under organic production in the Republic of Srpska in 2019 amounted to about 560 ha (arable land, meadows, pastures), which is only 0.06% of the total arable land. The number of certified food producers in the Republic of Srpska varies from year to year, but ranges up to 50. The aim of this paper is to point out the importance of organic production and the possibility of placing food at the market of the European Union and other developed countries. It will be described which high-quality food is organically produced in the Republic of Srpska, production certification, applicable laws and regulations, as well as incentive measures that are important to improve organic production in the Republic of Srpska.

More than a decade has passed since the momentous events of 1989 that changed the world order and redefined the geopolitics of Central Europe. This is just the right moment to assess the results of these changes and discuss the future of that region. Based on the past comparative studies or those currently going on, we may say that Central Europe differs from the post-communist East (the former Soviet Union) and the South-East (the former Yugoslavia with the exception of Slovenia) and Albania. First, Central-European states overthrew their communist regimes earlier and in a more decisive manner than the USSR; second, the economic transformation of Central Europe, though not completely smooth, is nevertheless much smoother than the transformation of the member countries of the CIS; third, the post-communist societies differ in the pattern by which their systems of social stratification have changed after the collapse of their communist regimes; fourth, there are big differences between the Central-European post-communist states, including the Baltic states on the one hand, and the CIS members and Serbia/Montenegro-Yugoslavia on the other regarding their international orientation. The author highlights three significant events that are going to leave their trace on the regional geostrategic situation: NATO's eastern expansion, NATO's campaign against SKY and the election of Vladimir Putin for president of Russia. The regional geopolitical picture may become more stable with closer ties between the states of Central Europe and Germany. (SOI : PM: S. 11)

Sistem nacionalnih računa (SNR) nastao je i više puta unapreĎivan na meĎunarodnom nivou sa ciljem da omogući, izmeĎu ostalog, što potpuniju osnovu za analizu ekonomske politike. Polazeći od činjenice da će se u Srbiji nakon pribliţavanja standardima Evropske unije izraĎivati celokupan SNR, što trenutno nije slučaj, i od teze holandskog autora Bosa da će vlade sve manje koristiti SNR, u radu je ispitano koju ulogu nacionalni računi trenutno imaju u analizi ekonomske politike. Cilj istraţivanja je bio da se utvrde načini unapreĎenja upotrebe nacionalnih računa u Srbiji nakon njegove dopune, po oblastima upotrebe. Korišćenjem postojećih podataka, intervjua i kvantitativne analize, to jest ekonometrijske analize vremenskih serija, utvrĎeno je da se u tri oblasti upotrebe SNR, analizi putem indikatora, analizi tokova sredstava i makroekonometrijskom modeliranju, moţe ostvariti napredak već i sada, a posebno nakon dopune statističke produkcije. Posebno je vaţno da će biti moguće unaprediti makroekonometrijsko modeliranje u Srbiji, što je pokazano na primeru funkcije potrošnje. Komparativna analiza imovinskog efekta u Srbiji, Sloveniji, Češkoj i Holandiji pokazala je da varijabla stambene imovine nije značajna u funkciji potrošnje u Srbiji jer ne dominiraju hipoteke u svojinskoj strukturi stambenog fonda i nema finansijskih inovacija kao u razvijenim zemljama. SNR i njegovo stalno unapreĎivanje je potreban ali ne i dovoljan uslov dobre ekonomske politike. SNRje bio dovoljno razvijen za analizu za potrebe voĎenja ekonomske politike u sprečavanju neravnoteţa koje su u poslednjoj krizi imale udela, ali je tek analiza podataka nacionalnih računa eks-post omogućila unapreĎenje analize putem indikatora i standarda na osnovu kojih se mogu sprečiti neki budući mehurovi i neravnoteţe. ; The System of National Accounts (SNA) was designed and has been improved several times on the international level with the aim to provide the best possible complete basis for the economic policy analysis. Starting from the fact that after the transition to the standards of the European Union in Serbia the whole system of national accounts will be compiled, which currently is not the case, and from the thesis of the Dutch author Bos that SNA will be less used by the governments, in this dissertation the current role of the SNA in economic policy analysis has been analyzed. The aim of the research was to establish the ways of improvement in different areas of the use of SNA in Serbia, after its completion. By using the existing data, interview and quantitative i.e. econometric analysis of the time series, it has been concluded that in three areas of the use of SNA - indicator analysis, flow of funds analysis and macroeconometric modeling, the improvement is possible even now, and especially after the completion of statistical production. It is especially important that it will be possible to improve the macroeconomic modeling in Serbia, which has been shown on the example of consumption function. The comparative analysis of the wealth effect in Serbia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and the Netherlands has shown that the housing wealth variable is not significant in consumption function in Serbia, because mortgages are not dominant in the ownership structure of the housing wealth, and there are no financial innovations present, as it is the case in the developed countries. The SNA and its constant improvement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a good economic policy. The SNA has been developed enough for the economic policy analysis to prevent imbalances which took part in the last crisis, but only the ex post analysis of the SNA data has enabled improvement of the indicator analysis and standards as the basis which may prevent future bubbles and imbalances.

U sklopu internacionalizacije političke podrške porodici i roditeljstvu značajna uloga pripada međunarodnim organizacijama, kao što su Svetska banka, Organizacija za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj i Evropska unija. Cilj ovog rada predstavlja analiza konceptualizacije roditeljstva u zvaničnim dokumentima i relevantnim publikacijama ovih organizacija u poslednje dve decenije, kao i njene pedagoške implikacije razmatrane sa stanovišta kritičke teorije. Metodom analize sadržaja u istraživanju je utvrđeno da se roditeljstvo konceptualizuje kao skup veština usmerenih na postizanje predvidivih ishoda dečjeg razvoja. Roditeljske veštine sagledavaju se kao jedna vrsta socijalne investicije. Ulaganje u učenje roditeljskih veština donosi dugoročne koristi pojedincima i društvu koje prevazilaze inicijalne troškove. Iako se teorijska orijentacija ne eksplicira u međunarodnoj političkoj agendi, jasno se može zaključiti da je zasnovana na postavkama teorije ljudskog kapitala. Na osnovu obavljenog istraživanja može se konstatovati da roditeljska uloga u pomenutoj agendi ima ključni značaj u obezbeđivanju podsticajne sredine za učenje deteta i njegov ukupni budući prosperitet, nezavisno od sistemskih ili strukturnih karakteristika društva. Ona je višedimenzionalna i može se opisati kao: (a) instrumentalna, jer predstavlja ključni faktor rešavanja društvenih problema velikih razmera; fokus nije na inherentnoj vrednosti "biti roditelj", već na funkcionalnoj vrednosti – "obavljati posao roditelja"; (b) globalno normativno određena u smislu "pozitivnog" ili "dobrog" roditeljstva i (c) suštinski vulnerabilna, što znači da je svim roditeljima potrebna određena vrsta ekspertske podrške, a ne samo targetiranim grupama. Sa stanovišta kritičke teorije, pedagoška kritika ovih postavki dovodi u pitanje tendenciju instrumentalizacije, dekontekstualizacije i "profesionalizacije roditeljstva". ; Within internationalization of political support to family and parenting, significant role belongs to international organizations such as the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Union. The goal of this paper is the analysis of parenting conceptualization in official documents and relevant publications of these organizations. The parenting is conceptualized as the set of skills directed to fostering the predictable outcomes of children's development. The parenting skills are perceived as a type of social investment. The investment into learning parenting skills brings long-term benefits both to individuals and society, which surpass the initial costs. The significance of parenting competences is of a special importance in the period of early childhood and adolescence for two reasons. The first one is that there are critical periods in encouraging development of certain outcomes in children, and the second one is cumulativeness of learning process due to which the missed opportunities may decrease efficiency of future learning during life cycle. It is viewed that the parenting role is of crucial significance in providing a stimulating environment for a child's learning and his/her comprehensive future prosperity regardless of the system or structural characteristics of a society. It is multidimensional and can be described as: (a) instrumental, since it represents the key factor in resolving large-scale social problems. The focus is not on inherent value of "being a parent" but on functional value – "performing a job of a parent"; (b) normatively specified on the global level in the sense of "positive" or "good" parenting and (c) essentially vulnerable, which means that all parents need a certain type of professional support and not only the targeted groups. Pedagogical critique of these postulates questions the tendency of instrumentalisation, de-contextualization and "professionalization of parenting". ; Zbornik rezimea / 24. Međunarodna naučna konferencija "Pedagoška istraživanja i školska praksa ; Book of abstracts / 24th International Scientific Conference "Educational Research and School Practice"

The policy led by a large number of developing countries, with the aim of increasing indirect taxes, has opened the issue of Value Added Tax (VAT) efficiency. Reforms of tax systems of developing countries generally involve an increase in standard rates in order to increase VAT, which is the main source of public revenues. In such a way, developing countries determine the VAT efficiency and the amount of revenue that could be collected by indirect taxation. The article sums up works of different scientists, dealing with the impact of determinants on VAT efficiency. The subject of this paper is an analysis of the factors that influence the C efficiency ratio. The main objective of the paper is to analize the impact of the change in the standard rate on the ratio. Theoretical analyses of standard rates and other factors that have reflections on the VAT collection efficiency explicitly prove that there are different ways to improve the efficiency of VAT collection, and exclude an increase in the standard rate. An increase in the standard rate provides a balance of negative effects, which can be blurred by recorded tax revenues. We focused on the countries of the European Union: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Croatia, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania during the 2000-2016 period. These countries experienced significant changes in government during economic transformation, and where VAT is the main source of public revenues. The last section analize an increse in VAT rate and C efficiency ratio in Serbia and conteins conclusions. The paper indicates the imperfection of inadequately defined VAT rates on economic growth and development in analized countries. Based on analyses we can conclude that the increase in the standard rate have negative reflections on the VAT efficiency, and that it was one of the factors of the continuous decline in C-efficiency. ; Politika koju vodi veliki broj zemalјa u razvoju, u cilјu povećanja indirektnih poreza, otvorila je pitanje efikasnosti poreza na dodatu vrednost (PDV). Reforme poreskih sistema zemalјa u razvoju generalno uklјučuju povećanje standardnih stopa kako bi se povećao PDV, koji je glavni izvor javnih prihoda. Na taj način zemlјe u razvoju određuju efikasnost PDV-a i iznos prihoda koji se mogu prikupiti indirektnim oporezivanjem. Članak subsumira naučne radove koji se bave uticajem determinanti na efikasnost PDV-a. Predmet ovog rada je analiza faktora koji utiču na racio C efikasnosti. Glavni cilј rada je da analizira uticaj promene standardne stope na racio. Teorijska analiza standardnih stopa i drugih faktora koji utiču na efikasnost naplate PDV-a eksplicitno dokazuje da postoje različiti načini za pobolјšanje efikasnosti naplate PDV-a i isklјučuje povećanje standardne stope. Povećanje standardne stope obezbeđuje bilans negativnih efekata, koji se mogu zamagliti evidentiranim poreskim prihodima. Fokusirali smo se na zemlјe Evropske unije: Bugarsku, Češku, Estoniju, Grčku, Hrvatsku, Letoniju, Mađarsku, Polјsku, Rumuniju, Slovačku, Sloveniju i Litvaniju tokom perioda 2000-2016. Ove zemlјe su doživele značajne promene u vladi tokom ekonomske transformacije, i njima je PDV glavni izvor javnih prihoda. U poslednjoj sekciji analizira se porast stope PDV-a i koeficijenta C efikasnosti u Srbiji i daju se zaklјučci o tome. U radu se ukazuje na nesavršenost neadekvatno definisanih stopa PDV-a na ekonomski rast i razvoj u analiziranim zemlјama. Na osnovu analiza možemo zaklјučiti da povećanje standardne stope ima negativne refleksije na efikasnost PDV-a, te da je to bio jedan od faktora kontinuiranog pada C-efikasnosti.

Based on the experience of former rightist and communist dictatorships in Europe regarding different forms of opposition - both open and hidden within these regimes' structures - the author analyzes the role of the opposition in the process of the sweeping democratic change that has taken place the "new democracies" of Central and Eastern Europe in the direction of the state of law and civil society. His conclusion is, that in today's Central European countries political multi-party pluralism which includes viable parliamentary opposition was given a smooth start and has since taken root. However in the countries with only superficial democracy and an obvious "democratic deficit" - for example Croatia (and Slovakia) - parliamentary opposition plays the second fiddle. The prime movers of the change - and of the democratization as well - are still the ruling parties (not unlike during the communist single-party regimes). Changes occur only when the ruling party or its major fraction opt for them considering them the lesser of two evils, either because they are no longer satisfied with the distribution of power and goods within the existing status quo or because they are aware that it cannot be maintained in its present form. This happened in the Soviet Union , first under Nikita Khruschev and then again under Mihail Gorbachev. Changes, however, when imposed from above get out of hand and backfire against those who have set them off (remember Gorbachev); what emerges is usually a compromise between tbe vestige of the old and the emerging regime. (SOI : PM: S. 92)

The issue of security in the new social and political context has not stopped attracting the attention of strategic security studies, this time with the emphasis on contemporary concepts in response to non-military security issues, such as demographic changes or environmental degradation. It is obvious that we live in a world of fundamental political and economic changes in relations between states and non-state actors. Instability, military threats and conflicts are back in the focus of security policy, although in a completely new way that requires new understanding and a new attitude towards these categories, as well as a new response from the state and especially from the international community towards these kinds of threats or the use of force in a post-Cold-War order. In order to create a system in which all countries can function under the same rules, act in accordance with them and react in certain situations in compliance with those rules, it was necessary to create a single system of collective security. This system is a good basis for all countries to react according to the same rules and standards in certain situations when their safety is compromised. Integration processes and collective security are constants of a modern society and every country seeks to become a part of a specific system, whether it be a security-based, political or economic framework of integration. The main factor that was very important for the member states of NATO was the disappearance of the key danger coming from the East in the form of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. On the other hand, the issue of NATO's existence and future arose, as did the issue of justifying its existence, bearing in mind the absence of threats and enemies that might jeopardize the Western world. Academia and a number of scholars believed that NATO would cease to exist. For them the existence of such an alliance no longer made any sense, and they thought that it would be best for all the member states to stop being a part of such an Alliance. vi By the Declaration of Independence adopted by Parliament on June 3, 2006, Montenegro clearly committed itself to Euro-Atlantic Integration. Montenegro's membership of NATO and the EU is one of the foreign policy priorities of the Government of Montenegro. At a time when all South-East European countries are included in the Euro-Atlantic integration process, Montenegro's commitment to becoming a part of the regional and international security system (UN, NATO, EU, and OSCE) is a realistic and the best solution for achieving long-lasting stability and prosperity in the region. Montenegro's strategic goal is to build a modern and functional security system that has the ability to respond in the most efficient manner to the challenges, risks and threats to the state. For every country, the Constitution is the basis of its future path towards the democratization of the society and membership of international organizations. As the supreme law of the country, it is necessary to include all the standards that will clearly indicate the commitment of the state to the direction it wants to go, how it will develop, and which principles related to human rights and freedoms it must have. The Constitution of Montenegro does not question in any of its parts Montenegro's commitment towards membership of NATO and the EU. This is very important not only from a constitutional point of view, but also from the point of view of the international standards and norms that apply in other countries and represent the democratic standards of developed countries. Also, in this way Montenegro as a country demonstrates that despite any possible change of government it will remain committed to the European and Euro-Atlantic integration processes. At this moment, this determination is very important, bearing in mind all other aspects that could potentially affect Montenegro's path towards the Euro-Atlantic family. Consideration of the changing security environment in Europe and worldwide, as well as the improvement of the security situation by a number of Eastern European countries entering the EU and NATO, which inter alia required a reform of their defense systems in accordance with NATO standards, raises the issue of the future use of the defense capacities of Montenegro. ; The issue of security in the new social and political context has not stopped attracting the attention of strategic security studies, this time with the emphasis on contemporary concepts in response to non-military security issues, such as demographic changes or environmental degradation. It is obvious that we live in a world of fundamental political and economic changes in relations between states and non-state actors. Instability, military threats and conflicts are back in the focus of security policy, although in a completely new way that requires new understanding and a new attitude towards these categories, as well as a new response from the state and especially from the international community towards these kinds of threats or the use of force in a post-Cold-War order. In order to create a system in which all countries can function under the same rules, act in accordance with them and react in certain situations in compliance with those rules, it was necessary to create a single system of collective security. This system is a good basis for all countries to react according to the same rules and standards in certain situations when their safety is compromised. Integration processes and collective security are constants of a modern society and every country seeks to become a part of a specific system, whether it be a security-based, political or economic framework of integration. The main factor that was very important for the member states of NATO was the disappearance of the key danger coming from the East in the form of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. On the other hand, the issue of NATO's existence and future arose, as did the issue of justifying its existence, bearing in mind the absence of threats and enemies that might jeopardize the Western world. Academia and a number of scholars believed that NATO would cease to exist. For them the existence of such an alliance no longer made any sense, and they thought that it would be best for all the member states to stop being a part of such an Alliance. vi By the Declaration of Independence adopted by Parliament on June 3, 2006, Montenegro clearly committed itself to Euro-Atlantic Integration. Montenegro's membership of NATO and the EU is one of the foreign policy priorities of the Government of Montenegro. At a time when all South-East European countries are included in the Euro-Atlantic integration process, Montenegro's commitment to becoming a part of the regional and international security system (UN, NATO, EU, and OSCE) is a realistic and the best solution for achieving long-lasting stability and prosperity in the region. Montenegro's strategic goal is to build a modern and functional security system that has the ability to respond in the most efficient manner to the challenges, risks and threats to the state. For every country, the Constitution is the basis of its future path towards the democratization of the society and membership of international organizations. As the supreme law of the country, it is necessary to include all the standards that will clearly indicate the commitment of the state to the direction it wants to go, how it will develop, and which principles related to human rights and freedoms it must have. The Constitution of Montenegro does not question in any of its parts Montenegro's commitment towards membership of NATO and the EU. This is very important not only from a constitutional point of view, but also from the point of view of the international standards and norms that apply in other countries and represent the democratic standards of developed countries. Also, in this way Montenegro as a country demonstrates that despite any possible change of government it will remain committed to the European and Euro-Atlantic integration processes. At this moment, this determination is very important, bearing in mind all other aspects that could potentially affect Montenegro's path towards the Euro-Atlantic family. Consideration of the changing security environment in Europe and worldwide, as well as the improvement of the security situation by a number of Eastern European countries entering the EU and NATO, which inter alia required a reform of their defense systems in accordance with NATO standards, raises the issue of the future use of the defense capacities of Montenegro.

Ekološke i klimatske promene na planeti postoje koliko i sama planeta, a čovek se od svog postanka prilagođavao ovim promenama. Jedan od načina adaptacije jesu migracije stanovništva u potrazi za hranom, boljim uslovima života i prijatnijim vremenskim uslovima za život. Posebnu pažnju u poslednjoj deceniji izazivaju takozvane ekološke izbeglice. Faktori sredine su oduvek pokretači ljudskih kretanja, a sa porastom svesti o promenama koje se dešavaju u prirodnoj sredini i aktuelnog problema klimatskih promena povećalo se interesovanje za moguće obrasce po kojima će se odvijati kretanja u budućnosti. U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji ćemo se baviti uzrocima nastanka ekoloških katastrofa, njihovim političkim, ali i drugim posledicama. Takođe ćemo proučiti migracije stanovništva koje nastaju pod uticajem ekoloških katastrofa. Uticaj čoveka na promenu uslova života vrlo je veliki, a stepen uticaja se povišavao zajedno sa razvojem civilizacije, kako u pozitivnom tako i u negativnom smislu. Čovek je uspeo da veliki deo prirode vremenom potčini svojim potrebama, što je dovelo i do kumulativnog efekta u vidu neželjenih posledica za životnu sredinu u formi prirodnih i tehnološki prouzrokovanih katastrofa. Uvodna razmatranja u doktorskoj disertaciji biće posvećena globalnom problemu zagađenja životne sredine, ekološkim katastrofama okvirno i problemu migracija, a u prvom delu će biti razrađen metodološki okvir po kojem će se odvijati istraživanje. Drugi deo teze odnosiće se na teorijski okvir istraživanja, sa akcentom na pojmovnom definisanju ekoloških katastrofa uopšte, njihovim potencijalnim uzrocima i posledicama kroz istoriju čovečanstva, kao i uticaju ekoloških katastrofa na pokretanje migracije stanovništva. Treći deo doktorske teze obuhvataće problem miigracija, teorijsko određenje, komparativnu analizu uslova pod kojima su nastale najveće migracije pokrenute ekološkim katastrofama u svetu, političke, socijalne, kulturalne i ekonomske posledice kakve su nastupile u zemljama koje su naselili ljudi izbegli sa tih područja. Četvrti deo ove teze odnosiće se na pripremljenost Evrope za slučaj iznenadne ekološke katastrofe, sa akcentom na empirijskom istraživanju uticaja trenutne krize sa izbeglicama iz severne Afrike, na Evropu kao krajnje odredište ljudi koji napuštaju svoje domove zbog nemogućih uslova za život, politiku koju sprovodi Evropska unija prema izbeglicama; nastale i očekivane političke, socijalne, ekonomske i kulturološke posledice ove tzv. "migrantske krize". Dobijeni podaci će se analizirati i poslužiti u izvođenju zaključaka iz rezultata empirijskog istraživanja. U petom delu ćemo razmatrati uslove pod kojima može doći do pojave konflikta na teritoriji koju naseljavaju imigranti. Šesti deo će sadržati predlog modela za rešavanje tekuće migrantske krize, a sedmi će sadržati istraživanje o tome koliko je javnost uopšte upoznata sa terminologijom i problemima kojima se bavimo u ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji, kao i odnosu javnosti prema trenutnoj situaciji sa migrantima. U osmom delu biće izneta sistematizovana zaključna razmatranja o onome što smo utvrdili i šta smo postigli izradom ove teze. ; Environmental and climate change on the Earth is as old as the planet itself, but the man from its inception adapted to these changes. One way of adapting to these changes is the migration of people in search of food, better living conditions and pleasant weather circumstances for life. A special attention in the last decade has been devoted to so-called environmental refugees. Environmental factors have always triggered human movement, with increasing awareness of the changes that occur in the natural environment and the current problems of climate change, which has increased interest in possible patterns of movement that will take place in the future. In this doctoral thesis we deal with the causes of ecological disasters, but also their political and other consequences. We will also study the migration of population that occured under the influence of environmental disasters. The impact of man on the changing conditions of life is high and the degree of influence has evolved along with the development of civilization, both in a positive and in a negative way. The man managed to a large part of nature eventually submit to its needs, which led to a cumulative effect in the form of adverse consequences for the environment in the form of natural and technological disasters. Preliminary thoughts in this doctoral dissertation will be devoted to the global problem of environmental pollution, ecological disasters framework, and the problem of migration, and in part one the methodological framework will be worked out according to which the research will take place. The second part of the thesis refers to the theoretical framework of research with emphasis on the conceptual definition of ecological disasters in general, their potential causes, and consequences throughout the history of mankind, as well as the impact of environmental disasters on the launch of the migration of the population. The third part of the doctoral thesis will include migration problem, theoretical determination, a comparative analysis of the conditions under which they incurred the largest migration initiated environmental disasters in the world, political, social, cultural and economic consequences that followed in countries that are settled people fled from those areas. The fourth part of this thesis will relate to the preparation of Europe in case of sudden environmental disasters, with an emphasis on empirical study of the impact of the current crisis with refugees from the Northern Africa to Europe as the final destination of people who leave their homes because of the impossible conditions of life, the policy implemented by the European Union for refugees; incurred and expected political, social, economic and cultural consequences of this so-called "Migrant crisis". The data will be analyzed and used in the performance of drawing conclusions from the results of empirical research. In the fifth section, we discuss the conditions under which a conflict may occur on the territory inhabited by immigrants. The sixth part will contain a model for resolving the current crisis, migrant, a seventh part will include research abou how much the general public is familiar with the terminology and the problems we deal with in this dissertation, as well as public attitudes towards the current situation with migrants. In the eighth part there will be presented systematized concluding observations about what we have established and what we have achieved by doing this thesis.

Doktorska disertacija Jugoslovenska politika prema zemljama narodne demokratije u susedstvu 1953 – 1958. godine zasnovana je na jugoslovenskim arhivskim izvorima iz Arhiva Srbije i Crne Gore, Diplomatskog arhiva Ministarstva spoljnih poslova Republike Srbije i Vojnog arhiva kao i na relevantnoj domaćoj i stranoj literaturi. Disertacija se bavi jugoslovenskom politikom prema Albaniji, Bugarskoj, Rumuniji i Mađarskoj u periodu normalizacije odnosa Jugoslavije sa ovim zemljama posle Staljinove smrti tj. posle petogodišnjeg perioda tokom koga su njihovi odnosi bili u gotovo potpunom prekidu. Ona predstavlja pokušaj da se sagleda odnos Jugoslavije prema neposrednom susedstvu u uslovima hladnog rata i sadejstva jugoslovenskih interesa sa jedne i spoljnih faktora poput uloge Sovjetskog Saveza u procesu normalizacije odnosa Jugoslavije sa pomenutim zemljama ili uloge vodećih zapadnih zemalja i njihovih interesa u Jugoslaviji i susednim zemljama "narodne demokratije" sa druge strane. U nekoliko faza kroz koje su od marta 1953. do aprila 1958. godine prošli odnosi Jugoslavije sa Albanijom, Bugarskom, Rumunijom i Mađarskom (od Staljinove smrti do potpisivanja Beogradske deklaracije, od potpisivanja Beogradske deklaracije do XX kongresa KPSS-a, od XX kongresa KPSS-a do izbijanja događaja u Mađarskoj 1956. godine i od događaja u Mađarskoj do kritike novog Programa SKJ) jugoslovenska politika se menjala u skladu sa okolnostima zadržavajući kao konstante izražen interes za normalizaciju odnosa i insistiranje na tome da sve susedne zemlje "narodne demokratije" javno osude svoju raniju politiku prema Jugoslaviji i rehabilituju sve koji su na montiranim sudskim procesima osuđeni zbog špijunske delatnost u korist Jugoslavije. Osnovni cilj rada na ovoj dioktorskoj disertaciji je bio da pruži nova znanja o ovoj temi, nove poglede na jugoslovensku spoljnu politiku i ponudi novi ugao gledanja na odnose Jugoslavije sa SSSR-om i Varšavskim paktom u celini. U vezi sa tim definisan je i drugi cilj ovog rada koji se odnosi na rekonstrukciju jugoslovenske politike prema ovim zemljama i na pokušaj da se uoče specifičnosti, metode i ciljevi te politike koji su se razlikovali u odnosu na jugoslovensku politiku prema ostalim istočnoevropskim zemljama. Treći cilj na temu jugoslovenske politike prema susednim zemljama "narodne demokratije" od 1953. do 1958. godine bio je i sistematizacija postojećih znanja o ovoj temi i njihova evaluacija s obzirom na veći stepen dostupnosti izvora nego što je to bio slučaj pre više decenija kada su nastali najznačajniji radovi koji su se delimično bavili pojedinim segmentima ove teme. Četvrti cilj istraživanja bio je utvrđivanje hronološki jasno određenih faza kroz koje su prolazili odnosi Jugoslavije sa Mađarskom, Rumunijom, Bugarskom i Albanijom u posmatranom periodu i identifikacija faktora koji su na to uticali. U trenutku Staljinove smrti, susedne zemlje "narodne demokratije" bile su daleko od centra pažnje jugoslovenske spoljne politike jer je , između ostalog, i njihov značaj za nju u uslovima prekida međudržavnih odnosa bio mali. Međutim, promene koje su ubrzo posle Staljinove smrti usledile u Sovjetskom Savezu omogućile su početak normalizacije odnosa Jugoslavije i "prve zemlje socijalizma" što je za sobom povuklo i mogućnost da Jugoslavija normalizuje svoje odnose i sa susednim zemljama "narodne demokratije". Kada su u pitanju bile te zemlje, primarni jugoslovenski interes nije se nalazio u sferi politike i ekonomije kao u slučaju Sovjetskog Saveza već u sferi praktičnih međudržavnih pitanja koja su teško opterećivala Jugoslaviju. Na prvom mestu to je bio interes da se što pre otkloni vojna pretnja na granicama i stanje na zajedničkoj "liniji razgraničenja" koje je u godinama posle 1948. iziskivalo velika materijalna i kadrovska ulaganja. Osim toga, Jugoslavija je jasan interes imala i po pitanju poboljšanja položaja pripadnika jugoslovenskih manjina u susednim zemljama "narodne demokratije" kao i po pitanju normalizacije saobraćaja. Razlog što Jugoslavija nije pokazivala izražen interes za političku i ekonomsku saradnju sa ovim zemljama ležao je u činjenici da je ona u međuvremenu, u vreme godina sukoba, uspela da pronađe alternativu kako u sferi spoljne politike tako i u sferi ekonomije i na taj način obesmisli blokadu kojoj je bila izložena sa Istoka. Međutim, cena iznalaženja te alternative bila je visoka i pretila je da ugrozi monopol vlasti Saveza komunista Jugoslavije što je za Tita i njegovo najbliže okruženje bilo neprihvatljivo. Iz tog razloga, mogućnost da se nađe zajednički jezik sa Moskvom predstavljao je za Tita priliku da uspostavi ravnotežu kada je u pitanju bio jugoslovenski položaj prema suprotstavljenim blokovima u zaoštrenoj hladnoratovskoj atmosferi. Odnos Jugoslavije prema SSSR-u, i obrnuto, može se smatrati jednim od najznačajnijih faktora koji su uticali na oblikovanje jugoslovenske politike prema susednim zemljama "narodne demokratije" sa jedne i na kreiranje politike koje su sve istočnoevropske zemlje vodile prema Jugoslaviji sa druge strane. Drugi značajan faktor koji je uticao na jugoslovensku politiku prema zemljama "narodne demokratije" u susedstvu od 1953. do 1958. godine bio je u tesnoj vezi sa jugoslovensko-sovjetskim odnosima a ticao se prevashodno ideologije i s tim u vezi destaljinizacije. Kreirajući u godinama sukoba sa Informbiroom sopstveni model "samoupravnog" socijalizma, Jugoslavija tokom procesa normalizacije odnosa nije pristajala na "jedinstvo lagera" i povratak u njega što je bio glavni kamen spoticanja u njenim odnosima kakao sa SSSR-om tako i sa drugim istočnoevropskim zemljama pa i susednim kao što su bile Albanija, Bugarska, Mađarska i Rumunija. S tim u vezi je i destaljinizacija, odnosno njen napredak i dubina u susednim "zemljama" narodne demokratije kao i njihova spremnost da se distanciraju od staljinističke ideologije, predstavljala jedan od glavnih faktora koji su uticali na oblikovanje jugoslovenske politike prema tim zemljama. Najzad, važan činilac koji je uticao na jugoslovensku spoljnu politiku uopšte pa i na njenu politiku prema delu ili celini Istočnog bloka bili su i njeni odnosi sa Zapadom, koji su iz pragmatičnih razloga tokom godina sukoba sa Informbiroom bili poboljšani do te mere da su Jugoslaviju, iako nevoljno, doveli na rub uključenja u zapadni vojni savez. Zapad je bio taj kome se nije dopadalo jugoslovensko približavanje SSSR-u i istočnoevropskim zemljama i u periodu normalizacije njihovih odnosa svaki korak koji je vodio približavanju dveju do tada suprotstavljenih strana izazivao je na Zapadu sumnje u iskrenost Jugoslavije i zebnju kada je u pitanju bila budućnost odnosa Zapada i Jugoslavije. Kao rezultat sadejstva nekoliko najvažnijih spoljnih faktora i jugoslovenskih interesa u neposrednom susedstvu iz okvira socijalističkog "lagera" nastajala je jugoslovenska politika prema Istoku uopšte pa i prema Albaniji, Bugarskoj, Rumuniji i Mađarskoj ponaosob, onakva kakva je bila. U periodu od 1953. do 1958. godine ta politika je bila aktivna i pozitivna ali ne i bez ograda. Tih godina, Jugoslavija je bez sumnje pokazivala interes da normalizuje svoje odnose sa susedima sa kojima je osim granice delila i ideologiju ali najčešće nije želela da ona bude ta koja će dati inicijativu za konkretne korake u tom procesu. Smatrajući da su međusobni odnosi narušeni ne njenom već krivicom suseda, ona je strogo poštovala načelo (koje je inače zastupala i kada je u pitanju bila njena politika prema SSSR-u) da prvi korak treba da učini onaj koji je odgovoran za prekid normalnih dobrosusedskih odnosa. Imajući u vidu sve interese, želje i aspiracije koje je Jugoslavija imala kada je u pitanju bio prostor neposredno uz njene granice kao i faktore koji su neminovno uticali na njenu politiku, može se reći da je Jugoslavija prema zemljama "narodne demokratije" u susedstvu u periodu normalizacije međusobnih odnosa od 1953. do 1958. godine vodila politiku mogućeg. Ta politika, međutim, iako osmišljena na isti način, nije uvek bila ista prema svakoj pojedinačnoj zemlji u susedstvu iz prostog razloga što u njima nije nailazila na istovetne uslove i mogućnosti. Tamo gde su mogućnosti bile veće, Jugoslavija je postizala više. Međutim, kako je vreme odmicalo i kako je Jugoslavija bivala sve uspešnija u pronalaženju svog sopstvenog "trećeg puta", čini se da joj je sve manje i manje bilo stalo do sadržajnije saradnje sa većinom suseda od kojih je (budući da su sve bile deo Istočnog bloka), u skladu sa svojom novom spoljnopolitičkom strategijom koja je ekvidistancu prema blokovima predviđala kao imperativ, trebalo da napravi određeni otklon. ; The Ph.D. thesis Yugoslav Policy Towards the Neighboring Countries of People's Democracy 1953-1958 is based on Yugoslav archival sources from the Archives of Yugoslavia, the Diplomatic Archives of the Foreign Ministry of the Republic of Serbia and the Military Archives, as well as on the relevant domestic and foreign literature. The thesis deals with Yugoslav policy towards Albania, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary during the period of normalization of relations between these countries and Yugoslavia after Stalin's death, i.e. after a five years' period of almost complete interruption in bilateral relations. It is an attempt at a study of the interplay of Yugoslavia's relations with immediate neighborhood during the Cold War and Yugoslav interests on the one hand, and interests of foreign factors, such as the Soviet Union and the leading Western nations in Yugoslavia and in the neighboring countries within the framework of the normalization of Yugoslavia's relations with the above mentioned countries. During the several phases the Yugoslav relations with Albania, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary went through between March 1953 and April 1958 (from Stalin's death until the signing of the Belgrade Declaration, from then to the 20th congress of the CP of the USSSR, from then until the beginning of the events in Hungary in 1956 and from then until the critique of the new Program of the CP of Yugoslavia), the Yugoslav policy changed in accordance with the situation, preserving the interest in normalizing relations and insisting that all neighboring countries of "people's democracy" should condemn their former policy towards Yugoslavia and rehabilitate all those who had been sentenced as Yugoslav spies at show trials. The main goal of this Ph.D. thesis was to provide new knowledge of the topic, new views on Yugoslav foreign policy and to propose a new vantage point on the Yugoslav relations with the Soviet Union, and on relations with the Warsaw Pact as a whole. Connected with this was another goal of the thesis that concrens the reconstruction of Yugoslav policy toward these countries and the attempt to pinpoint the characteristics, methods and goals of that policy that were different from those of Yugoslav policy toward other east European countries. The third goal of the topic of Yugoslav policy toward the neighboring countries of "people's democracy" between 1953 and 1958 was also to systematize the existing knowledge on the subject in view of better accessability of sources as compared with the situation of several decades ago when the most important works touching upon some aspects of this topic were written. The fourth goal of the research was to determin chronologically clearly defined phases that the Yugoslav relations with Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Albania had gone through during the researched period and to identify the factors that influenced the process. At the time of Stalin's death the countries of "people's democracy" were far from the focus of the Yugoslav foreign policy, because, among other things, their importance was small due to the severed inter-state relations. However, the changes that set in the Soviet Union soon after Stalin's death made the beginning of normalization of relations with the "first country of socialism" possible. This entailed the possibility that Yugoslavia also normalizes its relations with neighboring countries of "people's democracy". When these countries were in question, Yugoslavia's primary interest didn't lie in political or economic spheres as in the case of the Soviet Union, but rather in the sphere of practical inter-state matters weighting heavily on Yugoslavia. Supreme was the interest to do away as soon as possible with the military threat on the borders and to change the situation on the "line of demarcation" that had required much material and human resources in the years after 1948. Furthermore, Yugoslavia had a clear interest in improving the situation of members of Yugoslav minorities in the neighboring countries of "people's democracy", as well as in normalization of trafic. The reason why Yugoslavia showed no great interest in political or economic cooperation with these countries lay in the fact that she had in the meantime, during the years of conflict, found alternative solutions in the spheres of foreign policy and economy, reducing thus to insignifficance the blocade imposed on her from the East. However, the price of that alternative solution was high and it threatened to endanger the power monopoly of the Union of the Communists of Yugoslavia, which was unacceptable for Tito and his innermost circle of collaborators. For that reason, the possibility of finding common grounds with Moscow was for Tito an oportunity to balance Yugoslavia's position between the two competing blocs in a worsened Cold War atmosphere. Yugoslavia's relation to the USSSR and vice versa, can be seen as one of the most important factors influencing Yugoslav policy toward the neighboring countries of "people's democracy" on the one hand, and on the other, one that was decisively shaping their policy towards Yugoslavia. Another important factor influencing Yugoslav policy toward the countries of "people's democracy" in the vicinity between 1953 and 1958 was closely connected with the Yugoslav-Soviet relations and it concerned primarily ideology and, in that context, destalinization. Having created her own model of "self-managing" socialism during the years of conflict with the Cominform, during the process of normalization Yugoslavia didn't accept the unity of the Eastern Bloc and the matter of her return to it was one of the main stumbling blocks both in her relations with the USSR and with the neighbors such as Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. In that context, destalinisation, i.e. its progress and depth in the neighboring countries of "people's democracy" and their willingnes to distance themselves from the Stalinist ideology was one of the major factors influencing Yugoslavia's policy toward those countries. Finally, the important factor influencing Yugoslav foreign policy in general, including part of the Eastern Block or it as a whole, were Yugoslavia's relations with the West that had been so improved during the years of conflict with the Cominform, that they led Yugoslavia, although unwillingly, to the brink of joining the western military alliance. The West was unhappy with Yugoslav rapprochement with the USSR and eastern European countries and every step that brought closer the two once confonted parties during the process of normalization of their relations, caused the West to doubt Yugoslavia's sincerety and cause fears for the future relations between the West and Yugoslavia. As a result of interplay of several major foreign political factors and Yugoslav interests in the imediate socialist block neighborhood, the Yugoslav policy toward the East in general and toward Albania, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary individually, emerged in the given form. Between 1953 and 1958 that policy was active and positive, but not without restrains. During those years Yugoslavia clearly showed interest in normalizing her relations with the neighboring countries with whom she shared not only borders, but ideology too, but in most cases she was not willing to be the one to initiate concrete steps in that process. Deeming that it had not been her fault but that of her neighbors that the bilateral relations had been spoiled, she observed strictly the principle (that she also championed in her relations with the USSR) that the side that had been responsible for the interruption of normal good neighborly relations should also make the first move. Having in mind all the interests, wishes and aspirations that Yugoslavia had concerning the space imediatly bordering on her territory as well as the factors necessarily infuencing her policy, it can be said that Yugoslavia led the policy of what was possible toward the neighboring countries of "people's democracy" during tthe period of normalization of bilateral relations 1953-1958. However, that policy wasn't always the same toward all these neighboring countries, for simple reason that it didn't meet with the same conditions and possibilities in them. Where possibilities were greater, Yugoslavia acheived more. However, as the time went by and as Yugoslavia became increasingly more successful in finding her own "third way", it seems she was increasingly less interested in substantial cooperation with most of the neighbors from whom (since they were all members of the Eastern Block) certain distance should be kept – in keeping with the new foreign political strategy that foresaw equidistance towards both blocs as a must.