Suchergebnisse

U ovom radu istražuje se odnos između deviznih rezervi (FER) i inozemnog zaduživanja (FB) u okviru upravljanja kapitalnim tokovima. Da bi se istražio ovaj odnos i ispitao učinak kontrole kapitala na devizne pričuve i inozemne dugove za 25 zemalja u razvoju tijekom razdoblja 1985. - 2019.godine, primjenjena su dva pristupa: model autoregresije panelnih vektora (PVAR) i tradicionalni model potražnje deviznih pričuva. Rezultati pokazuju negativnu povezanost između FER-a i FB-a, a smjer uzročnosti je od dugova prema deviznim pričuvama. Kontrola kapitala, kao uspješna politika za ograničavanje kratkoročnih tokova, ne utječe na akumuliranje deviznih pričuva i, suprotno, smanjuje kratkoročne vanjske dugove. Korištenje neto inozemne imovine umjesto deviznih rezervi ukazuje na različite učinke kontrole kapitala i stoga se nameće pitanje o mogućnosti točne procjene deviznih pričuva. ; The study explores the relationship between foreign exchange reserves (FER) and foreign borrowing (FB) within the framework of the management of capital flows. To investigate this relationship and examine the effect of capital control on foreign exchange reserves and external debt of two approaches are applied, the panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) and a traditional model of the reserve demand for 25 emerging countries over the period 1985-2019. The results show a negative association between FER and FB; the direction of the causality was from debts to reserves. Capital controls, as an instrument to reduce the short-term inflows, fail to restrict the accumulation of exchange reserves and conversely, succeed in limiting the recourse to foreign borrowing. Net foreign assets replacing foreign exchange reserves highlights different impacts of capital controls and raise the issue on a correct evaluation of foreign exchange reserves.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati reakcije CROBEX indeksa Zagrebačke burze na odabrane makroekonomske najave u vrlo kratkim vremenskim intervalima. U radu se koriste varijable stopa prinosa od 5 minuta od rujna 2017. do ožujka 2018. kao i 25 makroekonomskih najava. Nakon pažljive provedbe faze pripreme podataka, utvrđena je regresija za koju se koriste dummy varijable koje predstavljaju točno vrijeme objavljivanja. U obzir je uzeta heteroskedastičnost i autokorelacijske konzistentne (HAC) procjene zbog specifičnosti unutardnevnih podataka i robusnosti rezultata. Naši rezultati upućuju na to da su za unutardnevna kratka razdoblja reakcije tržišta statistički značajne. Stoga se zaključuje da se makroekonomska politika (monetarna ili fiskalna) odražava na stope prinosa hrvatskih dioničkih indeksa. Navedeno potvrđuje hipotezu učinkovitog tržišta i u skladu su sa zaključcima sličnih studija razvijenih gospodarstava. ; The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati reakcije CROBEX indeksa Zagrebačke burze na odabrane makroekonomske najave u vrlo kratkim vremenskim intervalima. U radu se koriste varijable stopa prinosa od 5 minuta od rujna 2017. do ožujka 2018. kao i 25 makroekonomskih najava. Nakon pažljive provedbe faze pripreme podataka, utvrđena je regresija za koju se koriste dummy varijable koje predstavljaju točno vrijeme objavljivanja. U obzir je uzeta heteroskedastičnost i autokorelacijske konzistentne (HAC) procjene zbog specifičnosti unutardnevnih podataka i robusnosti rezultata. Naši rezultati upućuju na to da su za unutardnevna kratka razdoblja reakcije tržišta statistički značajne. Stoga se zaključuje da se makroekonomska politika (monetarna ili fiskalna) odražava na stope prinosa hrvatskih dioničkih indeksa. Navedeno potvrđuje hipotezu učinkovitog tržišta i u skladu su sa zaključcima sličnih studija razvijenih gospodarstava. ; The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.

The author looks into Buchanan's contribution to the contemporary political economy. His starting point is that Buchanan's concept of economy as exchange links political science & economics, showing that this is feasible, since Buchanan has rejected the theory of allocation, a standard in economics, & promoted the market theory based on exchange. The theory of allocation is dubious for Buchanan since it reduces the subject of economics to a set of problems & not to a characteristic form of human activity. That is why he uses the concept of the symbiotic, meaning the attitude based on the study of links among various actors that are beneficial for all. Buchanan's basic concept evolved & was shaped in the 1980s in the form of the constitutional political economy, which is an attempt to explain the possibilities of different legal-constitutional rules that determine the basic framework for selecting economic & political actors. The author claims that for political science, particularly important is the fact that Buchanan defines this type of political economy as a redux of the political in economics. In this way, on the one hand, it became questionable in economics as a discipline, & on the other, more acceptable for political science. However, the fact that Buchanan's work transcends the rigid boundaries of social disciplines does not mean that he unreservedly paves the way for political science. On the contrary, Buchanan is pursuing such a fundamental revision of the rigid boundaries among disciplines in social sciences that it may challenge the present status of political science. 31 References. Adapted from the source document.

The informal economy is today the reality of all countries in the world, including both those in transition & the developed ones, but to a varying degree. The author makes special reference to the situation in the Russian Federation, discusses some policy options for reducing the informal economy. The author argues that the implementation of the basic aim -- the policy of reintegration of the grey economy into legal system -- is through rounding-off a market-oriented economic order, full protection of property, implementation of the policy of macroeconomic stability, stable exchange rate, foreign trade liberalization & the development of financial markets. Tables, Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.

According to the author, the introduction of the euro has created the second largest economic space in the world. However, this economic space is not without its quandaries. For example, the author predicts that the exchange rate for the euro is going to increase only after the conditions for investments within the euro space have improved. All the EU governments must work on structural reforms of the labor market & the social policy. This will be facilitated once the euro has become an international currency equal to the dollar. For this to occur, a political union in Europe must be created since a successful currency needs political clout as a back-up. Adapted from the source document.

The author explores the evolution, functioning, similarities & differences between the original Bretton Woods international monetary system that operated from 1945 to 1973 & the present modified institution, which is symbolically called Bretton Woods 2 System. The existing international financial architecture keeps on being based on the hegemony of the US dollar, as a dominant reserve currency. However, in spite of the fact that in most cases the present international monetary system implies the regime of flexible foreign exchanges rates, a characteristic of this system is that many countries in different degrees refuse to accept the appreciation of their national currencies to the US dollar. At the same time, the domination of the USA, the most indebted country in the world, is becoming a very serious threat to its sustainability. However, as the author concludes, the creators of the international monetary system, being aware how serious could be the consequences of its cessation, endeavor to extend its operation accepting less expensive consequences of keeping it alive. Tables, References. Adapted from the source document.

The theory of public choice is a major link between political science & economic science. It includes economic research into the issue of non-market decision making, ie, the application of economic analysis to political decision making. The champions of the theory of public choice have the most confidence in the market & market institutions. They try to explain political decision making by means of the standards operating in the market. The public choice theory approach is based on the concept of methodological individualism & homo oeconomicus, since individuals try to promote their own interests both in the market & in politics. Theoreticians of public choice investigate voters' behavior, the roles of politicians, political parties, & interest groups in complex democratic societies. Central for their research is the political process in which voters behave as buyers, & politicians as entrepreneurs, while bureaucrats are prone to self-aggrandizement; their ambition is to boost the significance of their office. The theory of public choice emphasizes the category of exchange (political exchange) & the catalectic approach to economy. 12 References. Adapted from the source document.

Protectionism is a system of measures used for the purpose of protecting domestic manufacturers from foreign competition. It has emerged simultaneously with the international exchange of goods. The contemporary protectionist policy and practice imposes the necessity of studying this phenomenon in the light of the current situation and conditions. Agricultural protectionism seems to be a particularly significant issue in the international exchange of commodities. ; Protekcionizam označava sustav mjera ekonomske države sa ciljem zaštite domaće proizvodnje u odnosu na konkurenciju inozemnih proizvođača. Javlja se nakon pojave međunarodne razmjene. Međutim, suvremena protekcionistička politika i praksa obavezuje da se istražuje fenomen protekcionizma u suvremenim uvjetima. Posebno je u suvremenoj teoriji za međunarodnu razmjenu značajan agrarni protekcionizam.

Based on Paul Feyerabend's distinction between guided & free exchange, the author argues that the accession of the post-communist states to the European Union took the form of the former kind, i.e. the form of communication where all participants in the process voluntarily embrace the meaning of law developed through inter-institutional discourse within the European Union. However, due to the nature of European law which does not apply to the purely internal situations in the Member States, a completely guided exchange between the EU & candidate countries is not possible. The author holds that the unity of, & loyalty towards, the European constitutional framework in an enlarged European Union is best served by the discoursive construction of the meaning of constitutional choices, principles & rules. References. Adapted from the source document.

U ovome radu istražujemo utjecaj makroekonomskih politika na prerađivačku industriju u Hrvatskoj. Koristeći model višestruke regresije, ispitujemo kako osobna potrošnja, investicije, kamatne stope, realni efektivni tečaj, državna potrošnja, fiskalni deficit te inozemna potražnja utječu na proizvodnju 22 prerađivačka sektora. Analiza je provedena na tromjesečnim podacima za razdoblje od prvoga tromjesečja 1998. do trećega tromjesečja 2008. godine. Rezultati pokazuju da su prerađivački sektori s niskim razinama tehnologije pod snažnijim utjecajem promjena fiskalne politike, realnog efektivnog tečaja i osobne potrošnje. Proizvodnja prerađivačkih sektora s visokom razinom tehnologije u pravilu je elastična na promjene investicija, inozemne potražnje i fiskalne politike. Čini se da je fiskalna politika posebno važna za prerađivačku industriju, kako zbog veličine fiskalnih elastičnosti, tako i zbog kratkih vremenskih pomaka djelovanja. U slučaju deprecijacije kune u prosjeku raste proizvodnja sektora s niskom razinom tehnologije, dok se kod sektora s visokom i srednje visokom razinom tehnologije ona smanjuje. ; In this paper, we analyse the impact of macroeconomic policies on manufacturing production in Croatia. We use multiple regressions in order to assess how personal consumption, investments, interest rates, the real effective exchange rate, government consumption, fiscal deficit and foreign demand affect the output of 22 manufacturing sectors. The analysis is conducted on quarterly data from 1998:1q to 2008:3q. The results suggest that changes in fiscal conditions, the real effective exchange rate and personal consumption mostly affect low technological intensity industries. Production in high technological intensity industries is, in general, elastic to changes in investments, foreign demand and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy seems particularly important for manufacturing output, both in terms of the magnitude of fiscal elasticities and shorter time lags. Production in low technological intensity industries on average increases with the exchange rate depreciation, while in high and medium-high technological intensity industries it contracts as a result of depreciation.

U ovom istraživanju ispitana je realna ekonomska aktivnost i monetarna politika SAD-a u usporedbi s vanjskotrgovinskom bilancom i valutnim tečajevima, primjenjujući modele Qual VAR i nelinearni VAR model. Ustanovili smo da međunarodno poslovanje s Brazilom, Kanadom i Meksikom ne dovodi do moguće recesije u SAD-u. Vrijednost domaće valute Brazila, Kanade i Meksika u odnosu na američki dolar ne pridonosi mogućoj recesiji na deviznom tržištu. Također smo pokazali da će kontrakcija američke ekonomije i kontrakcijska monetarna politika dovesti do aprecijacije američkog dolara vodeći do priljeva kapitala. Iako negativna stopa federalnih fondova (shadow interest rate) može imati asimetrične učinke na vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu s Kanadom i USD / CAD-om, smatramo da će vanjskotrgovinska bilanca s Meksikom i USD / MXN biti pozitivno ili negativno uvjetovana povećanjem odnosno smanjenjem stope federalnih fondova. ; In this study, the real economic activity and monetary policy in the US are examined in comparison with the foreign trade balance and exchange rates, using Qual VAR and nonlinear VAR models. We found that the foreign trade with Brazil, Canada and Mexico do not lead to a possible recession in the US. The value of the domestic currency of Brazil, Canada and Mexico against the US dollar does not contribute to a possible recession over the foreign exchange market. We also show that a contraction in the US economy and contractionary monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar by leading to capital inflows. Although the shadow interest rate may have asymmetric effects on the foreign trade balance with Canada and USD/CAD, we find that the foreign trade balance with Mexico and USD/MXN will be affected positively/negatively by an increase/decrease in the shadow interest rate.

Upravljanje financijskim tokovima iziskuje odgovarajuću povezanost deviznih rezervi, inozemnog zaduživanja i kontrole kapitala. Ove politike smatraju se alatom za predviđanje naglih zastoja (SS). Stoga se u ovoj analizi utvrđuje pojavljivanje naglih zastoja / prekida financijskih tokova na uzorku od 200 zemalja u periodu od 1985. - 2019. godine. Vjerojatnost SS-a određuje se pomoću logit modela. Rezultati ukazuju na činjenicu da efektivno upravljanje smanjuje vjerojatnost naglih zastoja. Provedena je analiza utjecaja rizika prelijevanja na bruto domaći proizvod, potrošnju, investicije i nezaposlenost. Rezultati pokazuju štetne utjecaje na ove makroekonomske varijable. Nalazi potvrđuju da zemlje sa zadovoljavajućom razinom deviznih rezervi, malim inozemnim zaduživanjem i koje započinju s kontrolom kapitala prije pojave naglih zastoja financijskih tokova manje pogađa rizik prelijevanja nego li gospodarstva u nastajanju, jer su znatno ranjivija od bogatih gospodarstava. ; Managing capital flows needs an appropriate association of foreign exchange reserves, foreign borrowing, and capital control. These policies are considered as a tool to predict sudden stops (SS). Consequently, this analysis identifies the occurrences of SS for a sample of 200 countries within the period 1985 - 2019. The probability of SS is determined through a logit model. Results suggest that effective management reduces the probability of sudden stops. A spillover risk influence analysis was conducted on the gross domestic product, consumption, investment, and unemployment. The results show harmful impacts on these macroeconomic variables. The findings demonstrate that countries with a satisfactory level of exchange foreign reserves, small foreign borrowing, and initiating capital controls before the occurrence of SS, are less touched by the spillover risk than emergent economies which are more vulnerable than rich economies.

The author deals with the problem of adjustment to the Bologna process, using the philosophical-political distinctions between open & guided intertraditional exchange, & between utopian & piecemeal social engineering. In his opinion, the process might be perceived as a sort of cultural imperialism that need not be disastrous for its victims. The reform should create the conditions for the organization of serious multidisciplinary studies at the university level (European studies, American studies, gender studies, peace studies, etc). Should changes at the U of Zagreb be implemented systematically, though prudently, the results could be positive. However, the author warns that the role of tradition should not be underestimated nor the possibility of serious quandaries in the implementation of the reform of higher education excluded, even if the changes are introduced gradually. 4 References. Adapted from the source document.