Suchergebnisse

Population dynamics influencing development were being analysed through the lens of an increasing fertility rate, or at least a fertility rate higher than replacement level. Mauritius is in a post-demographic phase and is presenting a different context compared to most other countries of the region. After facing the risk of a population explosion which was likely to lead to a social crisis in the 1960s and 1970s, Mauritius is now facing the threats caused by a fertility rate below replacement level and a rapidly ageing population. Just as the upward population growth was a source of concern in the 1950s and 1960s, so is the reversing trend to-day. Government and the major actors in the economic sector are viewing the fall in the fertility rate as dramatic with possible adverse effects on the country's future. Population policies which have, up to now, consisted essentially of strategies to curb population growth are no longer applicable, especially if the objective of any intended policy is to focus on a fertility increase.

AbstractThis paper studies the effect of export stability on the adolescent fertility rate. The test results show that the improvement of export stability will decrease the adolescent fertility rate of exporting countries through four mechanisms: raising female labour income, increasing health expenditure, promoting urbanization and strengthening female education empowerment. Compared to developed or high‐income countries, the impact of export stability in developing or low‐income countries is more substantial. The increase in export scale will strengthen the impact of export stability on adolescent fertility rates. The findings of this article can help countries to govern the adolescent fertility rate further.

Demographic change is one of the greatest challenges faced by Germany as well as a large part of Europe today. One of the main drivers of this change is the low fertility level, often referred to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), since the early 1970s. Therefore, on the one hand, while the total population is expected to decline, on the other hand, the relative share of the elderly in the total population is expected to increase. This poses a great challenge for the society in a wide range of aspects, most notably in the statutory pension fund. Therefore, it is important to gain an understanding of the future demographic development, in our case, the course of the TFR. Official forecasts often assume that the TFR will remain at a low level of 1.4 in the long run, which was already proven wrong in the publication of the 2014 data, which shows a TFR of 1.47. However, separate analysis of age-specific fertility lead to expected increases of the future TFR. This study presents a stochastic projection of the TFR based on econometric-statistical modeling of age-specific fertility rates over principal components. Simulation techniques not only generate the expected future TFR until the year 2040, but also provide point-wise prediction intervals which cover the future TFR with a probability of 95\% annually based on the current data set. The age-specific structure of the modeling procedure gives a detailed insight of the future development of the reproductive behavior for women in Germany, and therefore, is very informative with regard to possible political intervention with the scope of increasing the TFR. Moreover, the flexible structure of the model allows more sophisticated estimations of future outcome of certain political measures.