Abstract This article aims at introducing some of the methods used in a thesis on the merchants and tradesmen of Bordeaux between 1780 and 1830. As we wish to paint a living picture of these people, from the big shipowners to the small shopkeepers, we want to go beyond the quite dry statistical approach. That is why we will not limit ourselves to the global treatment of notarized contracts, fiscal lists and other almanacs but analyse many individual cases. Thanks to data processing we can now do both. To illustrate our point we have chosen he completely unknown person, Guillaume Nonlabade, whose career is going to come up as if by miracle from the computerized criss-crossing of quantitative sources.
The paper deals with Adam Smith's analysis of and opinions on British colonial policy during the American revolution and its immediate aftermath. Smith was, of course, an opponent of mercantile aims and methods of regu- lating colonial trade. He was equally concerned with the fiscal burdens imposed on Britain by rising public debt and the civil and military costs of maintaining an empire. Unlike many of his contemporaries, therefore, Smith did not regard the loss of empire as disadvantageous from an economic or political perspective ; his « Utopian » proposals for an imperial federation were designed to emphasise to only kinf of empire that could be justified, namely one in which both free trade and fiscal harmonization were achieved. Although Smith's opinions on American economic prospects were as optimistic as thore of Thomas Paine, he refused to make the radical connnection between républicanisme and economic performance and was unsympathetic to colonial constitutional complaints and the neo-Lockean ideas on contract and rights of resistance upon which they were based. Hence the lack of histo- rial basis for those attempts to make Smith an honorary founding father of a « bourgeois » or « liberal » integration of the American national identity.
Is trade with developing countries in Asia a threat to employment in France ? Catherine Mathieu, Henri Sterdyniak Growth rates have been particularly high in south-east Asian developing countries for the last two decades (averaging 7 %), as compared to those of the rest of the world. Asian dynamic economies are sometimes accused to be a cause for the low growth rates in Europe, and some other times considered as an opportunity for industrial countries to export to these areas. Even though trade between Europe and developing countries in Asia has developed over this period, it stills represents a very small part of European imports : imports from this area only account for 1,4 % of the EC GDP. However these imports mainly consist in low price commodities, which means that they represent a more important part of the European production than they seem to. But, besides, low import prices also mean lower inflation rates, thus allowing increases of the purchasing power in the EC. Developing countries in Asia have external trade surpluses both with the EC and the USA, but no global surplus since they are in deficit with Japan. There are only few european direct investment inflows to developing countries in Asia, European firms generally opting for contracts with local firms. The undervaluation of these industrializing countries currencies, as compared to that of the purchasing power parities, reflects both economic underdeveloped economies and export-oriented policies. This strategy has revealed sucessful. It allows Asian economic partners to import low price products and to export investment goods. Yet, the emergence of this area has entailed massive job destructions in several sectors of the French industry. A simulation made with the OFCE-Mosaique macroeconomic model indicates that, depending on the assumptions made, from 190 000 up to 230 000 jobs have been lost in France, because of the increase of Asian industrial exports all over the world (including French imports). Imports from low wages areas induce unskilled workers dismissals, an increase in social inequalities, and in the number of the unemployed in developed countries if no redistribution takes place. However, taxing imports from these countries would be selfishness and has no justification. Europe should find a way to help developing countries to grow, meanwhile having sustantial internal growth rates again. This requires more active economic policies (lower interest rates and expansionary policies), a fiscal reform to compensate for the gaps between social and private labour costs, and redistribution in favour of the workers hit by imports from low wages countries.
Is trade with developing countries in Asia a threat to employment in France ? Catherine Mathieu, Henri Sterdyniak Growth rates have been particularly high in south-east Asian developing countries for the last two decades (averaging 7 %), as compared to those of the rest of the world. Asian dynamic economies are sometimes accused to be a cause for the low growth rates in Europe, and some other times considered as an opportunity for industrial countries to export to these areas. Even though trade between Europe and developing countries in Asia has developed over this period, it stills represents a very small part of European imports : imports from this area only account for 1,4 % of the EC GDP. However these imports mainly consist in low price commodities, which means that they represent a more important part of the European production than they seem to. But, besides, low import prices also mean lower inflation rates, thus allowing increases of the purchasing power in the EC. Developing countries in Asia have external trade surpluses both with the EC and the USA, but no global surplus since they are in deficit with Japan. There are only few european direct investment inflows to developing countries in Asia, European firms generally opting for contracts with local firms. The undervaluation of these industrializing countries currencies, as compared to that of the purchasing power parities, reflects both economic underdeveloped economies and export-oriented policies. This strategy has revealed sucessful. It allows Asian economic partners to import low price products and to export investment goods. Yet, the emergence of this area has entailed massive job destructions in several sectors of the French industry. A simulation made with the OFCE-Mosaique macroeconomic model indicates that, depending on the assumptions made, from 190 000 up to 230 000 jobs have been lost in France, because of the increase of Asian industrial exports all over the world (including French imports). Imports from low wages areas induce unskilled workers dismissals, an increase in social inequalities, and in the number of the unemployed in developed countries if no redistribution takes place. However, taxing imports from these countries would be selfishness and has no justification. Europe should find a way to help developing countries to grow, meanwhile having sustantial internal growth rates again. This requires more active economic policies (lower interest rates and expansionary policies), a fiscal reform to compensate for the gaps between social and private labour costs, and redistribution in favour of the workers hit by imports from low wages countries. ; Les pays de l'Asie du Sud- Est ont connu dans les deux dernières décennies un fort dynamisme économique et des taux de croissance de l'ordre de 7 %, qui contrastent avec la généralisation du chômage de masse et la faible croissance en Europe. Aussi certains ont accusé la politique commerciale agressive des pays d'Asie en développement d'être responsable des difficultés européennes, tandis que d'autres mettaient l'accent sur les facteurs internes de dynamisme de ces pays et voyaient dans leur émergence une chance à saisir pour l'Europe. Si les échanges de l'Asie en développement avec la CE ont crû rapidement, ils restent modestes et ne représentent en 1992 que 1,4 point du PIB communautaire pour les importations, 1 point du PIB pour les exportations. Toutefois, comme les importations sont réalisées à bas prix, elles évincent une part plus importante de la production européenne. En sens inverse, elles induisent des baisses de prix et des gains de pouvoir d'achat en Europe. Les pays d'Asie en développement, pris dans leur ensemble, ont un solde commercial globalement équilibré, mais sont excédentaires vis-à-vis de l'Europe et des Etats-Unis, et déficitaires vis-à-vis du Japon. Les investissements directs des firmes européennes dans cette région sont d'ampleur négligeable : les délocalisations passent surtout par des accords de sous-traitance. La sous-évaluation des monnaies des pays d'Asie en développement par rapport aux taux de change de PPA correspond à la fois à leur niveau de développement et à une stratégie visant à limiter les importations aux biens d'équipement indispensables et à inciter leurs producteurs à se tourner vers l'exportation. Cette stratégie s'est avérée gagnante. Mais elle permet à leurs partenaires de bénéficier d'importations à bas prix et d'exporter des biens d'équipement. Cependant l'émergence de cette zone a entraîné de fortes destructions d'emplois dans certains secteurs de l'industrie française. En tenant compte de leurs exportations, de leurs achats en France, de leur concurrence sur les marchés tiers, une évaluation macroé- conomique, réalisée avec le modèle Mosaïque, chiffre les pertes d'emplois en France à 190 000 ou 230 000, selon les hypothèses retenues. Les importations en provenance des pays à bas salaires évincent de leurs emplois les travailleurs non qualifiés et augmentent les inégalités sociales et le chômage dans les pays riches si aucune mesure de redistribution n'est prise. Aussi, une politique active de subvention aux secteurs et aux travailleurs directement concurrencés est-elle nécessaire. Par contre, la proposition consistant à remplacer des cotisations employeurs par une « TVA sociale » est illusoire. Il est erroné d'accuser ces pays de dumping monétaire, salarial, ou social. Une taxation spécifique des produits en provenance des pays à bas salaires serait foncièrement égoïste et injustifiable. L'Europe doit savoir accueillir les nouveaux pays industrialisés, permettre aux pays de l'Est et du Sud de suivre leur exemple, en même temps qu'elle doit retrouver elle-même une croissance plus satisfaisante. Cela nécessite une politique économique plus active (baisse des taux d'intérêt, relance économique) ; une réforme fiscale pour rapprocher le coût social du coût privé du travail (en particulier pour le travail non-qualifié) ; des mesures pour redistribuer aux travailleurs directement touchés par la concurrence des pays à bas salaires les gains que procure le commerce avec ceux-ci.
