Suchergebnisse

To understand the fiscal position of a country, contingent liabilities and other sources of fiscal risk need to be considered. The authors develop a framework to assess and manage fiscal risk in Bulgaria. Bulgaria's Currency Board Arrangement has effectively imposed fiscal discipline, but leaves only limited room to accommodate potential fiscal shocks. Through risks embedded in the portfolio of government contingent and direct liabilities, significant fiscal pressures could arise in the future. Major sources of risk include environmental liabilities and investment requirements, collection capacities of the social protection institutions, and further engagement in off-budget programs, such as government guarantees. To limit the Government's exposure to risks, yet accommodate investment needs crucial to growth and development, Bulgaria must find an optimal strategy for liability management, fiscal reserves, and risk mitigation. Priorities for dealing with existing risks and limiting further accumulation of risks include: 1) Mitigating currency and interest rate risks in the government liability structure. 2) Implementing proposed institutional and finance reform of the country's pension and health care systems. 3) Building adequate contingency reserves. 4) Introducing risk-sharing arrangements. 5) Prioritizing and placing strict limits on the amounts of new guaranteed obligations. 6) Developing government capacity to analyze and manage risks. 7) Fully integrating fiscal risk management with other policy considerations in fiscal management, as part of an integrated asset and liability management strategy.

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity. --Abstract

This article intended to describe and enumerate. Fiscal risk of Local Administration Organization and to consider the fiscal risk management approach of Local Administrative Organization.The study was documentary survey method, including Fiscal risk managerial concepts and theories. Local Administration Organization Fiscal and Strategic Management Articles related to fiscal risk management to compile and interpret, enumerate, and draw conclusions.The results were as follows; implementation of the internal control system. Implementing risk management measures. Prediction of periodic instability and local government organization strategies, structures and systems. Corporate culture, acceptance of risks, Fiscal transparency, and including the establishment of local tax sources Reforming the tax management, model local tax improvements, such as property taxes.

Government fiscal risk can be defined as a source of financial stress that could face a government in the future. The traditional cash-based accounting and reporting systems used by many governments provide inadequate information within the executive for the management of fiscal risks. They also do not produce enough information for the legislature and the public to hold governments accountable for the management of fiscal risks. The traditional focus on cash has been consistently associated with fiscal management practices that are short term and reactive. Poor information has interacted with poor incentives to discourage decision makers from taking a longer-term view of fiscal risks and their management In same time, conventional budgeting processes are deficient on two ways. First of all, they have a short time frame-one year in countries that have only annual budgets, three to five years in countries that budget within medium-term fiscal frameworks. These time horizons are too short to account for the downstream risks taken by governments when they establish pension systems and other entitlements, issue or guarantee loans, or promise to make good on shortfalls in financial performance. Second, conventional budgets record only cash flows; they do not account for the build up of liabilities, contingent obligations, or the future cost of past commitments. In this paper, we will analyze how can solve traditional accounting and budgeting systems shortages to cover all kind of fiscal liabilities either direct and indirect or implicit and explicit. ; İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has shown that sovereign default risk can be a serious issue also in advanced economies. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the factors that lead to the crisis in the euro area. We find that, the global financial crisis of 2008-09, which hit all euro-area countries, uncovered persistent weaknesses in some countries. In others, which started from a seemingly strong fiscal position, the crisis was triggered by a strong decline in revenues. Responding to the incipient recession with structural rather than cyclical measures also contributed to the emergence of a debt crisis. We then discuss the use of advanced statistical methods to evaluate fiscal sustainability. One approach is the estimation of fiscal limits and fiscal space, the other the construction of government balance sheets using a model-based approach to the valuation of government assets and liabilities. We show that the two approaches are closely related. We suggest that the use of such approaches can help governments to identify fiscal risks and improve fiscal transparency. In Europe, this could be a useful activity of the newly created fiscal councils. ; The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.