Suchergebnisse

Dužnički financijski instrumenti su specifične zbog komponente dospijeća koju sadržavaju te stoga konvencionalni pristupi u procjeni njihovih volatilnost mogu biti neprimjereni. Rad je usmjeren na modeliranje i prognoziranje volatilnosti cijene dužničkih vrijednosnih papira uzimajući u obzir komponentu njihovog dospijeća. U radu se uzima u obzir ovisnost volatilnosti dužničkog vrijednosnog papira o njegovom dospijeću i predlaže jednostavna i primjenjiva tehnike procjene volatilnosti uz željeni interval pouzdanosti. Korištenjem predloženog pristupa u radu su provedene procjene volatilnosti dužničkih vrijednosnih papira denominiranih eurima kao i u kunama koje je izdala Republika Hrvatska. ; Debt-based financial instruments are specific due to the maturity component and conventional approaches in estimating their volatility may not be applicable. This paper focuses on modeling and forecasting price volatility of sovereign debt instruments while taking into account their maturity. In doing so we propose a simple and useful technique for obtaining the desired confidence of volatility estimates. The proposed approach provides price volatility estimates for debt instruments issued by Croatian government denominated in HRK and in EUR.

Vier Aufsätze zum Themenbereich Ernährung in Entwicklungsländern (Selbstversorgung, Ernährungssicherung, Nahrungsmittelproduktion und Weltmarkt, Nahrungsmittelhilfe der Industrieländer)

Hrana kao esencijalni sastojak ljudske egzistencije oduvijek je igrala važnu ulogu u međudržavnim odnosima i diplomatskoj praksi te je bila korištena kao medij kroz koji se projicira utjecaj, komuniciraju kultura i identitet te poruke koje izražavaju prijateljstvo ili neprijateljstvo. Uloga hrane sve je istaknutija u javnodiplomatskoj praksi različitih država, dok su akademska razmatranja gastrodiplomacije, kulinarske diplomacije ili diplomacije hranom do sada bila ograničena unutar discipline međunarodnih odnosa. Cilj je članka predstaviti različite aspekte ovog novog interdisciplinarnog polja istraživanja široj akademskoj zajednici, polazeći od hipoteze da hrana u sve većoj mjeri postaje prepoznata kao službeno sredstvo meke moći i javne diplomacije. U članku se prezentiraju rezultati inicijalnog istraživanja provedenog među diplomatima akreditiranima u Republici Hrvatskoj te anketnog istraživanja provedenog među studentima Fakulteta političkih znanosti Sveučilišta u Zagrebu. ; Food as an essential ingredient of human existence, has always played an important role in interstate relations and diplomatic practice. It has been used as a medium for projecting influence, communicating one's culture, identity and messages that express friendship or enmity. Its role is becoming increasingly prominent in the public diplomacy practices of various countries, while academic accounts on gastro diplomacy, food diplomacy or culinary diplomacy within the International Relations (IR) discipline have so far been limited. The aim of this article is to introduce different aspects of this new, developing field of interdisciplinary research to the wider academic community, building on the hypothesis that food is becoming more recognized as an official soft power or public diplomacy tool. The article contains an analysis based on an initial survey conducted among the diplomats accredited in the Republic of Croatia as well as among the students of the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb.

Hrvatska narodna banka ne temelji monetarnu politiku na ciljanju inflacije te devizni tečaj služi kao intermedijarni cilj i temelj vođenja monetarne politike u Republici Hrvatskoj. Inflacija u Republici Hrvatskoj dominantno je određena stopama inflacije u inozemstvu. Na uzorku mjesečnih podataka o indeksu potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj od siječnja 1997. do studenog 2015., prilagođen je ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model koji opisuje dinamiku kretanja indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Procijenjeni model se može koristiti za pouzdano prognoziranje kretanja potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Nadalje, kako bi se istražile karakteristike promjenjivosti indeksa potrošačkih cijena testirano je nekoliko ARCH modela. Provedeni testovi su pokazali da ARCH (1) model najbolje objašnjava promjenjivost indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. ; Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted as the one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

Koncept ljudske sigurnosti prvi put je istaknut u izvješću UNDP-a (United Nations Development Programme: Razvojni program Ujedinjenih naroda) 1994. i bazira se na slobodi od oskudice (freedom from want) i slobodi od straha (freedom from fear). Na Svjetskom samitu o hrani (World Food Summit) 1996. sigurnost hrane je definirana na način koji naglašava dostupnost hrane, pristup hrani te korištenje i stabilnost kao ključne dimenzije sigurnosti hrane. Iako najčešće nije jedini uzrok sukoba, nesigurnost hrane predstavlja sigurnosnu prijetnju jer služi kao pokretač nasilnog djelovanja. Glad i nesigurnost hrane povećavaju vjerojatnost da će doći do prosvjeda i nereda što potiče nesigurnost među stanovništvom i ostavlja dugotrajne posljedice na cjelokupan razvoj zajednice. S druge strane, sukobi uzrokuju degradaciju okoliša, raspad ekonomije i prisilno raseljavanje stanovništva što u konačnici uzrokuje glad i, naposljetku, bolest i smrt. U posljednjem desetljeću mnoge zemlje ulažu napore u provođenje zakona i strategija usmjerenih na rješavanje problema gladi. Nastoji se potaknuti i društvene skupine da aktivno sudjeluju kako bi uz pomoć međunarodne zajednice unaprijedili sigurnost hrane i osigurali pozitivne transformacije. ; The concept of human security was first highlighted in the UNDP report of 1994 and is based on two freedoms; freedom from want and freedom from fear. The widely accepted World Food Summit definition from 1996 emphasizes the importance of food availability, food access, food use and stability of food as key dimensions of food security. Although usually not the only cause of conflict, food insecurity represents a security threat since it serves as an initiator of violent actions. The presence of hunger and food insecurity increase the probability of protests and riots, which further causes insecurity among the population and leaves long-term consequences to the overall development of the community. On the other hand, conflicts cause the degradation of environment, economic disruption, forced displacement of the population which, in the end, causes hunger and ultimately disease and death. In the last decade, many countries have invested their efforts in law enforcement and strategies aimed at solving the problem of hunger. Countries also seek to activate social groups for participating actively in cooperation with international communities in order to enhance food security and ensure positive transformation.

Turizam i djelatnosti povezane s turizmom značajan su čimbenik hrvatskog gospodarstva, s jasnim naznakama nastavka takvih trendova i u budućnosti. Istraživanja pokazuju kako se udio turizma u hrvatskom bruto domaćem proizvodu povećao, a sve su više primjetna nastojanja za podizanjem kvalitete turističke ponude i produžavanja turističke sezone. Nositelji takvih inicijativa od kojih se očekuju povećani povrati u dugom roku zasad su uglavnom turistička poduzeća s najvećim financijskim potencijalom. U ovom radu autori istražuju je li kretanje cijene dionica takvih trgovačkih društava povezano s povećanim prihodima u vrijeme sezone, odnosno je li kretanje cijene povezano sa sezonskim oscilacijama ili je povezano s njihovom dugoročnom poslovnom politikom. Istraživanje je pokazalo da sezonske promjene imaju određeni utjecaj, ali nedovoljan da značajnije determiniraju kretanje cijene vrijednosnica na financijskom tržištu promatranih poduzeća. Unatoč značajnom povećanju prihoda, trend je silazan, a naznake njegovog obrata u kratkom i srednjem roku nisu uočene, što može ukazivati na nepovjerenje ulagača u takav oblik razvoja turističkih poduzeća. ; Tourism and tourism-related activities are a significant factor in the Croatian economy, with clear indications of the continuation of such trends in the future. Research shows that the share of tourism in the Croatian gross domestic product has increased, and efforts to raise the quality of the tourist offer and extend the tourist season are becoming more noticeable. Holders of such initiatives, which are expected to increase long-term returns, are currently mostly tourism companies with the highest financial potential. In this paper, the authors investigate whether the movement in the stock price of such companies is associated with increased revenues during the season, that is, whether the price movement is related to seasonal fluctuations or is related to their long-term business policy. The research has shown that seasonal changes have some influence, but not sufficient to ...

Prema analiziranim podatcima rezervi i pridobivanja nafte u svijetu 1995., 2005. i 2015. godine zabilježen je globalni porast rezervi nafte koje 1995. godine iznose 179,1 × 10^9 m3, 2005. godine 218,5 × 10^9 m3, a 2015. godine 269,9 × 10^9 m3. Prema podatcima koje donosi British Petroleum pridobivanje nafte jednako tako raste u razmatranome razdoblju, ali s manjom stopom porasta. Tako pridobivanje nafte u svijetu 1995. iznosi 10,8 × 10^9 m3, 2005. godine 13 × 10^9 m3, a 2015. godine 14,6 ×10^9 m3. Kretanje cijena nafte analizirano je u razdoblju od 1980. do 2015. godine. Mnogo različitih uzroka utječe na konstantne promjene cijena nafte, ali najutjecajniji čimbenici jesu geopolitičke krize u zemljama Srednjega istoka, velik porast potražnje za naftom i ekspanzija potrošnje u državama s velikim brojem stanovnika poput Kine, Indije i Brazila koja nije praćena odgovarajućim porastom ponude. Suvremeni politički odnosi puni su sukoba, što uvelike utječe na cijene nafte, a najbolji su primjer za to kratkotrajni porast cijena nafte 2011. godine, kada su u Libiji, koja u ukupnome svjetskom pridobivanju sudjeluje s 0,5%, započele oružane aktivnosti, ili onemogućavanje pridobivanja u državama poput Sirije i Jemena koje u 2015. godini jedva bilježe pridobivene količine. Usporedbom podataka o rezervama, pridobivanju te kretanju cijena nafte razvidno je da je gotovo svaki porast pridobivanja nafte, kasnije bivao popraćen padom cijena. ; According to analysed oil reserves and oil production worldwide during 1995, 2005 and 2015, a global increase in oil re- serves is observed. In 1995, there were 179.1 × 10^9 m3, in 2005 there were 218.5 × 10^9 m3 and in 2015 there were 269.9 × 10^9 m3 oil reserves. According to British Petroleum data, oil production is also increasing, but by a smaller ratio. Oil production in the world in 1995 was 10.8 × 10^9 m3, in 2005 it was 13.0 × 10^9 m3, and in 2015 14.6 × 10^9 m3. Oil price trends between 1980 and 2015 were analysed. Many different causes affect the constant oil price fluctuations, but the most influential are the geopolitical crises of the Middle Eastern countries, as well as a great increase in demand for oil and the expansion of the consumption of wealthy countries such as China, India and Brazil, which was not accompanied by a corresponding increase in supply. Modern political relations are full of conflicts, which greatly affect oil prices, and the best example is the short-term rise in oil prices in 2011, when armed conflicts started in Libya, or disablement of production in countries such as Syria and Yemen, which in 2015 can barely capture any production. By comparing reserves, earnings and oil price fluctuations, it is apparent that almost every increase in oil production, after the discovery of oil deposits, was later accompanied by a fall in prices.

Prikazane su prehrambene kartice koje su koristili zatočenici koncentracijskih logora Jasenovac (1941.-1945.) i Stara Gradiška (1942.-1945.). Naime, zatočenici su karticama, koje su izdavane mjesečno, podizali dnevne obroke (doručak, objed i večeru). Gubitak je kartice za sobom povlačio gubitak prava na hranu te su stoga, iako ne u pravom smislu riječi, one bile jedna vrsta platežnoga sredstva unutar logora. Prikazano je devet kartica za prehranu, sedam ih je korišteno u logoru Jasenovac, a dvije su prehrambene kartice izdane i korištene u logoru Stara Gradiška ; The article describes the camp food cards that were used in Jasenovac (1941-1945) and Stara Gradiška (1942-1945), the concentration and work camps of the Independent State of Croatia. The food cards were issued monthly and the inmates used them to draw their daily meals (breakfast, lunch and supper). Although the food cards were issued by name and could not be transferred, their loss entailed the loss of the right to food so they could be interpreted as a kind of camp currency, although not in the real sense of the word. The article shows nine food cards that belonged to five prisoners: seven of the cards were used in the Jasenovac Camp and two were used in the Stara Gradiška Camp. Camp currency (coupons and food cards) was very widespread in camps throughout Europe during the Second World War and immediately after it. Camp coupons were also in use in some camps for interned civilians founded by the military authorities of the Kingdom of Italy on the eastern Adriatic coast during the Second World War. Although the use of camp currency (coupons and food cards) was widespread, and has been described in scholarly and professional literature, there has to date been no mention of the prisoners' food cards shown in this article, used in the Ustasha concentration and work camps of Jasenovac and Stara Gradiška.

This study is concerned with the components of agricultural foreign trade of Iraq and the development during the seventies. It analyses the factors of agricultural and food trade balances as well as the balance of production and the degree of agricultural dependency of Iraqi economy on the rest of the world and its effect on Iraq's agricultural policy. (DÜI-Sdt)

Ubrzani razvoj nekonvencionalnih ležišta nafte u SAD-u započeo je 2010. godine, uz naredno petogodišnje razdoblje sa stabilnim i relativno visokim cijenama nafte na tržištu. Tijekom toga relativno kratkoga perioda ekspanzije došlo je do znatnijih promjena u kapitalnim i operativnim troškovima zbog neprestanoga tehnološkog napretka u bušenju i opremanju, rastu pratećega naftno-servisnog sektora te povoljnijega financiranja projekata uz državnu politiku monetarnoga popuštanja. U radu su analizirani trendovi u troškovima razvoja nekonvencionalnih ležišta te ovisnost kretanja cijene nafte (WTI – West Texas Intermediate) o intenzitetu broja aktivnih bušotina i ukupnim proizvodnim kvotama s najvećih ležišta nekonvencionalne nafte. Nakon svjetske financijske krize iz 2008./2009. ekonomski oporavak u SAD-u bio je donekle usporen, što je uzrokovalo ekstremnu volatilnost na dioničkim i robnim tržištima. U takvim nesigurnim uvjetima dnevna kretanja cijena nafte te vrijednosti dionica i roba pokazuju znatno reagiranje na periodične izvještaje o promjenama glavnih makroekonomskih indikatora kao glavnih pokazatelja trenda ekonomskoga oporavka. Prije nego što državne institucije objave takve izvještaje, postoje i predviđanja vrijednosti indikatora temeljem anketa među ekonomskim analitičarima i očekivanim trendovima. Stoga, bilo kakvo pozitivno ili negativno iznenađenje prilikom objave stvarnih podataka u odnosu na predviđeno utječe na dnevno kretanje cijene nafte. U ovome radu statistički su analizi rani utjecaji takvih promjena u makroekonomskim indikatorima na dnevnu završnu cijenu nafte te utjecaj ostalih važnijih burzovnih indeksa u SAD-u. Analiza je pokazala da od makroekonomskih indikatora najveći utjecaj na dnevne pomake u cijeni nafte ima indeks industrijskih proizvođačkih cijena (PPI – Producer Price Index) kao temeljni indeks pokazatelja inflacije. ; Large scale development of tight oil resources in US started after 2010. with following five-year period of favorable steady increase in crude oil price. During this relatively short expansion cycle, operating and capital expenses changed drastically for main tight oil plays due to technological improvements in both well drilling and completion, expansion of service sector as well as loose government monetary policy which allowed favorable financing. This paper analyzed trends in costs during expansion period, as well as correlation of oil price to number of operating rigs and production quotas. After 2008/2009. world financial crisis economy recovery in US was somewhat sluggish and it caused extreme volatile environment in both equity and commodity markets. In such volatile environment intra-day crude oil prices, as well as other commodities and equities, show significant reaction to monthly published macroeconomic indicator reports, which give better overviews of trends in economic recovery. Prior to announcement, these reports always have forecasted value determined by consensus among market analysts. Therefore, any positive or negative surprise in real value tends to influence price of oil. This paper investigated influence of such macroeconomic reports to closing intraday oil price, as well as effect of other important daily market indices. Analysis showed that only Producer Price Index (PPI), among other indicators, has statistical significance of affecting intraday closing oil price.