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We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of news shocks. In addition, we show that neglecting to acc

The starting point of Paul Streeten's book is the dilemma, faced by policy makers in many developing countries: should the price of food be high, in order to stimulate production, or low, in order to prevent poor food buyers from starving? The author goes on to discuss the role of prices in the light of these and other objectives. 'It is the work of one of our wisest scholars on what I consider to be the key policy issue for economic development in the 1980s...this provocative essay will be required reading for anyone working on agricultural price policy.' C.Peter Timmer 'It provides solid and practical guidance to scholars and decision-makers. It is lucid, balanced and, above all, useful.' Robert Klitgaard 'Paul Streeten is well known for his gift of explaining the pros and cons of difficult policy issues in a clear, simple and realistic way, appealing to policy-makers, students and the wider development community, as well as to academic colleagues. This gift is fully displayed in his new book, and readers are bound to emerge with a better awareness of the conflicts and policy reforms which are involved.' H.W.Singer.

In 2007/8 world food prices spiked and global economic crisis set in, leaving hundreds of millions of people unable to access adequate food. The international reaction was swift. In a bid for leadership, the 123 member countries of the United Nations' Committee on World Food Security (CFS) adopted a series of reforms with the aim of becoming the foremost international, inclusive and intergovernmental platform for food security. Central to the reform was the inclusion of participants (including civil society and the private sector) across all activities of the Committee. Drawing on data collected from policy documents, interviews and participant observation, this book examines the re-organization and functioning of a UN Committee that is coming to be known as a best practice in global governance. Framed by key challenges that plague global governance, the impact and implication of increased civil society engagement are examined by tracing policy negotiations within the CFS, in particular, policy roundtables on smallholder sensitive investment and food price volatility and negotiations on the Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries and Forests in the Context of National Food Security, and the Global Strategic Framework for Food Security and Nutrition. The author shows that through their participation in the Committee, civil society actors are influencing policy outcomes. Yet analysis also reveals that the CFS is being undermined by other actors seeking to gain and maintain influence at the global level. By way of this analysis, this book provides empirically-informed insights into increased participation in global governance processes.

Intro -- PRICE DYNAMICS BEHIND CONSUMER FOOD PURCHASES -- PRICE DYNAMICS BEHIND CONSUMER FOOD PURCHASES -- LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1: CONSUMERS AND FOOD PRICE INFLATION -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- CONSUMER DEMAND -- Price Responsiveness -- Income Responsiveness -- Tastes and Preferences -- Summary -- MAJOR STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF CONSUMEREXPENDITURES AND FOOD PRICE CHANGES -- Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) -- Major Uses of CES Data -- Household-Level Expenditures versus National Average DisposableIncome -- National Accounts Data: Focus on Food Expenditure Trends -- CES Household Data: Focus on Individual Consumer Behavior -- Consumer Price Index (CPI) -- Is the CPI's Food Market Basket Representative? -- CPI Categories and Weights -- Historic Price Inflation Patterns -- Overall Inflation versus Core Inflation -- What about Seasonality Patterns in the Data? -- Is the Food-at-Home CPI a Good Measure of Retail Food PriceChange? -- Why Not Use the PCE Price Index to Measure Consumer PriceInflation? -- CONSUMER INCOME AND EXPENDITURES -- Food as a Share of Consumer's Budget -- At-Home versus Away-from-Home Consumption -- International Comparisons -- RECENT FOOD PRICE INFLATION -- Annual All-Food versus All-Items Price Inflation -- The 2009 Forecast for Annual Food Price Inflation -- The Recent Monthly All-Food Price Inflation Pattern -- At-Home versus Away-from-Home Food Price Inflation -- Price Inflation by Major Food Categories -- EFFECT OF HIGH PRICES -- Federal Spending for Domestic Food Assistance Programs -- Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerlyFood Stamps) -- Child Nutrition -- The WIC Program -- TEFAP and Older Americans Act Programs -- Foreign Food Aid -- Author Contact Information -- End Notes -- Chapter 2: FARM-TO-FOOD PRICE DYNAMICS -- SUMMARY

The Pacific Food System Outlook represents the first regionwide coordinated effort to provide the outlook for the Pacific food system. The food system includes not just production agriculture, but also the whole complex of economic relationships and linkages that tie the region's food consumers to producers. The goal of the Pacific Food System Outlook is to help increase knowledge about the diverse components of this vital segment of the global economy.The food system is one of the economic

The global food crisis is a stark reminder of the fragility of the global food system. This book captures the debate about how to go forward and examines the implications of the crisis for food security in the world's poorest countries, both for the global environment and for the global rules and institutions that govern food and agriculture. In this volume, policy-makers and scholars assess the causes and consequences of the most recent food price volatility and examine the associated governance challenges and opportunities, including short-term emergency responses, the ecological dimensions of the crisis, and the longer-term goal of building sustainable global food systems. The recommendations include vastly increasing public investment in small-farm agriculture; reforming global food aid and food research institutions; establishing fairer international agricultural trade rules; promoting sustainable agricultural methods; placing agriculture higher on the post-Kyoto climate change agenda; revamping biofuel policies; and enhancing international agricultural policy-making.

Over the past two decades, the Black Sea region has exhibited significantly growing wheat production and exports. In 2017/18, Russia ultimately became the world's largest wheat exporter, a position that was held by the USA for decades. Mostly serving destination markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Russian grain exports have become vital to ensuring regional and global food security. However, the Russian wheat export market shows several characteristics that can negatively affect agricultural trade, potentially jeopardizing food supply in import-dependent countries. First, in the face of severe harvest shortfalls, Russia and other Black Sea countries have frequently restricted grain exports in the past, which can contribute to price surges on international markets. Secondly, a functioning futures market reflecting Black Sea wheat does not yet exist. Grain traders therefore use established futures markets for price discovery and to hedge price risk in the Black Sea region, which can involve basis risk. Thirdly, previous research has suggested that Russian wheat exporters exercise market power in order to price discriminate among different destination markets. Further, grain exports can be hampered by deficiencies and bottlenecks in the Russian transportation and export infrastructure. Against this background, this dissertation analyzes how the ascent of Russian wheat exports changes the patterns of global physical trade, results in different pricing dynamics on physical and futures markets, and affects futures price volatility by changing trade policy. The methodological focus lies on time series econometrics, and price analysis in particular. Using vector autoregressive (VAR), autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and vector error correction models (VECM), the econometric analyses are conducted using price series recorded at varying frequencies (monthly to intradaily) to account for economic transactions occurring at different speed on physical compared to futures markets. An initial, descriptive analysis depicts the evolvement of Russian wheat exports over time, with respect to main destination regions. The focus on Russia's food trade with four key markets in the MENA region, namely Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, shows that grain trade is the central component in the respective trade ties. The deepening or loosening of food trade relations corresponds to the present state of respective political ties. Further, a market integration and price leadership analysis is conducted using a multivariate VECM approach. Analyzing the Egyptian wheat tender market as a proxy for the world wheat market, results suggest that European export prices play an increasingly important role for international wheat price formation, likely stemming from close regional proximity between European and Black Sea markets. These results are in line with the findings of a VAR analysis focusing on realized volatility relations between Black Sea spot and leading futures markets. Here, prices posted at the Euronext Paris (EPA) futures market are determined to affect the Black Sea physical market, while such an effect is not found concerning the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) market. Further, this analysis provides evidence of asymmetric adjustment to ruble jumps, which suggests that Russian wheat prices are more likely to increase in response to exchange rate movements than they are to decrease. The final ARMA analysis shows that news about Russian grain export restrictions significantly increase intraday seasonally adjusted realized volatility on the CBoT futures market. Further, elevated volatility can be determined in days preceding such news publications. These pre-announcement effects offer important insights into the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the studied market. The restructuring of the world wheat market resulting from the rise of Russian wheat exports is ongoing. Particularly with respect to futures markets, leading exchanges still compete to establish a functioning Black Sea wheat futures contract that could potentially serve as novel global pricing benchmark. Moreover, the Russian government continues to intervene in the grain trade by imposing export taxes or quotas. Against the background of growing world populations and increased likelihood of harvest shortfalls due to climate change, it is stressed that unimpeded food trade is indispensable to ensure global food security. Policy recommendations aiming to prevent the introduction of food export restrictions are provided at the end of the dissertation.