Suchergebnisse

Since 2004 (Ethiopian Fiscal Year (EFY) 1997), Ethiopia has experienced strong and generally broad-based real economic growth of around 10.6 percent on average between then and 2011. Growth over the last nine years was far beyond the growth rates recorded in aggregate terms for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which on average only reached 5.2 percent, less than half of Ethiopia's average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate during that period. Inspired by the East Asian experiences for a comparison of selected indicators and policies of Ethiopia and China/Korea), growth was induced through a mix of factors including agricultural modernization, the development of new export sectors, strong global commodity demand, and government-led development investments. The initial double digits growth rates have now manifested slightly lower but remain at high single-digit levels. The economy is expected to stabilize at around seven to eight percent in 2012, largely owing to improved performance in the agriculture sector. GDP growth is likely to stay around that margin up until 2016 (EFY 2008) driven by rising foreign investment and exports (Economist Intelligence Unit 2012). High inflation persists, but is on a slightly decreasing trend. Economic growth brought with it positive trends in reducing poverty, in both urban and rural areas. Ethiopia follows a strategy of increasing exports to facilitate growth. This is appropriate given the currently limited size of its domestic market and it is consistent with the development experience of some of the recently successful countries, particularly in East Asia. Export of goods growth is to a good extent driven by volume growth across a variety of product groups, which indicates that this growth is a result of recent efforts to increase and diversify the export base. Overall export and import developments result in a significantly increased trade deficit by 43 percent, up from US$5.5 billion in 2010/11 to US$7.9 billion.

The World Bank's Mongolia quarterly economic update assesses recent economic and social developments and policies in Mongolia. It also presents findings of ongoing World Bank activities in Mongolia. The Mongolian economy is continuing to grow at a very rapid pace, expanding by 16.7 percent year-on-year (yoy) in first quarter (Q1). This high growth however, is also fuelling inflation which touched 16 percent in April, well above the Bank of Mongolia's (BoM) inflation target of 10 percent. Increasing government spending on wages and salaries, large cash handouts to the general population, and burgeoning capital expenditures are adding to the demand pressures. Meanwhile, the worsening global economic outlook, in particular a faster than expected slowdown in China, Mongolia's largest trading partner, has negatively impacted export growth, resulting in deterioration in external balances. Under these circumstances, the advice to Mongolian policy-makers is to 'hold your horses' and adopt a more cautious macro-economic stance, tightening both monetary and fiscal policy to prevent further over-heating of the economy. The global economic outlook has deteriorated considerably in recent months. Financial conditions in high-income Europe, higher oil prices, and, most importantly, the slowing Chinese economy pose risks for Mongolia. The channels through which these operate include financial and trade linkages namely volatility in commodity prices and through demand from China for its mineral exports. Indeed, signs of these are already visible as demonstrated by the decline in exports in April. Other financial market linkages should also not be discounted: Mongolia's banking system, which has shown signs of overheating over the past year, is highly dollarized, with about a third of deposits denominated in dollars and easy convertibility out of the Mongolia Togrog. A sharp economic slowdown and/or an increased macroeconomic instability could expose the liquidity and asset quality vulnerabilities in individual banks and system overall.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.

In the last few years, Vietnam's macroeconomic situation has followed a predictable pattern. When faced with external shocks the authorities have opted to protect the country's rapid growth rate, even if it meant tolerating higher levels of macroeconomic instability. This has meant modest growth slowdowns and frequent episodes of overheating. So when the economy started to overheat in late 2010 following the delayed withdrawal of the fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place in 2009, few expected a determined response from the government to stem the ensuing macroeconomic volatility. The current episode of macroeconomic instability has been as severe as the previous overheating episode of mid-2008. The author constructed a summary measure of macroeconomic instability, Vietnam Index of Macroeconomic Stability (VIMS), based on the movement of four variables, namely nominal exchange rate, international reserves, inflation rate and nominal interest rate. Our measure shows that the degree of macroeconomic instability during the current episode did come quite close to mid-2008, but has not surpassed it yet. But unlike 2008, when the level of instability increased sharply and fell immediately, instability has persisted over a longer period of time during the current episode, from November 2010 to February 2011, exposing Vietnam's economy to a prolonged period of nervousness and uncertainty.

Mongolia's prospects in the medium term look excellent from a growth perspective as well as a fiscal management perspective. Staying the course in the medium term means implementing the landmark Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) passed last year, and adopting a supportive integrated budget law this spring session of parliament. The economy grew 6.1 percent year-on-year (yoy) in 2010, following a contraction of 1.3 percent in 2009. The last quarter of 2010 ended with a broad-based recovery, supported by transportation, construction and wholesale and retail trade. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in March 2011 revealed no changes in the total number of casual workers compared to December. Mongolia has promising growth prospects. It has the opportunity now to exercise prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies so it can steer clear of the mistakes made by other resource rich economies and achieve its potential.

The objectives of the Costing Adaptation through Local Institutions (CALI) study were (a) to identify the costs of adaptation through local institutions, and (b) to investigate which institutions help households adapt to climate variability, which efforts and costs are needed to realize the adaptation options, and how they facilitate adaptation to climate variability. The study was carried out in Ethiopia, Mali, and Yemen. This report discusses the results for Yemen. In Yemen, village surveys were conducted in six villages and two expert workshops were organized to discuss the main framework of the study and to evaluate the draft results. The study assessed household vulnerability, analyzed the strategies households adopt to reduce the impacts of climate hazards, and evaluated the assistance households receive from different institutions. The analysis was based on household surveys, focus group discussions, and institutional stakeholder interviews. Vulnerability profiles, developed on the basis of field survey results, show that household vulnerability differs substantially between and within villages. The results show that the vulnerability and agro ecological potential in Yemen are related to rainfall, which is related to altitude. This study is a reflection of the insights that (a) poor, rural households are facing most of the climate variability- related hazards; (b) adaptation also has socioeconomic aspects; (c) understanding local adaptation processes is important for informing macro-policies; and (d) for prioritizing future adaptation, it is crucial to analyze historical adaptation strategies. The study involves an assessment of the adaptation options rural household pursue. The study also considers the differential access of various vulnerability groups, as well as the drivers for adopting particular strategies or constraints for not adopting other strategies. For this, households and institutional stakeholders were interviewed in six villages in Yemen, focus group discussions were organized, and experts were consulted.

A major problem in the transition countries of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) during the transition was the breakdown of the relationships of farms with input suppliers and output markets. The simultaneous privatization and restructuring of the farms and of the up- and downstream companies in the agrifood chain has caused major disruptions. The result is that many farms and rural households face serious constraints in accessing essential inputs (feed, fertilizer, seeds, capital, etc.) and in selling their products. The problems are worsened by the lack of public institutions necessary to support market-based transactions, such as for enforcing property rights and contractual agreements. The objective of the study is to analyze Vertical Coordination (VC) in agrifood supply chains in ECA and to identify options for improved policies, institutions, and investments which Governments could make, and which the World Bank could support, in order to improve links in the agricultural marketing and processing chain and increase access of farmers to input and output markets. This is especially important in those countries where contractual arrangements are slow to develop. It is also important if farmers are to be lifted out of subsistence farming and into a modern agrifood economy.

After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011. Slower third quarter (Q3) growth of 3.2 percent was the result of significant contractions in exports and public investment. The contraction in exports largely reflected weaker demand in advanced economies while public investments continued to shrink in part because of measures to improve accountability of public spending. On the production side, industrial and agricultural activities were sluggish, leaving the services sector to buoy growth. To improve growth outcome in the remainder of the year, the government announced a PHP 72 billion (about 0.7 percent of GDP) disbursement acceleration plan to ensure that budgeted items are spent by year end. After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, bringing year to date growth below the government's revised target of 4.5 to 5.5 percent for 2011. Q3 growth of 3.2 percent was driven by private consumption and inventory build-up, which grew by 7.1 and 147.7 percent respectively. The country's slower expansion places it behind its neighbors with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore growing above 6 percent, Malaysia at 5.8 percent, and Thailand, which was devastated by massive flooding in recent months, at 3.5 percent.

Inclusive growth (IG) analysis involves analyzing the available data in a country to determine the best course of action for accelerating growth and or improving the distribution of the opportunities and benefits from the growth process. In economies in which international migration is a significant trend, that determination may be especially challenging. The international migration phenomenon can contribute to (or detract from) growth and its distribution through myriad number of complex and sometimes divergent channels, and these effects can change substantially over time. The ability to analyze these impacts, however, is often significantly handicapped by a lack of appropriate data. Moreover, because the migration decision is inherently a private decision made by households in the best interest of their welfare, determining the policy conclusions based on the results of inclusive growth analysis is often unclear. Governments are rightfully wary of interfering with the migration process. This paper examines the issue of international migration in inclusive growth. The aim is to provide the practitioners of inclusive growth diagnostics a useful framework for assessing the nature of the international migration phenomenon, and to highlight the key tools utilized in evaluating its current and potential impact on shared growth.

Since 2005, a growing number of vulnerable communities and nations have used the human rights lexicon to argue their case for an urgent and ambitious response to climate change. The purpose of this Social Development Department Working paper is to examine the emergence of a new discourse linking climate change and human rights, and to assess its social and political implications, particularly as they relate to development practitioners. The scope of this paper is to explore what relevance this new discourse has on what David Kennedy calls the 'vocabularies, expertise, and sensibilities' of development practitioners (Kennedy 2005). The methodology for this paper involved interviews with academics and policy practitioners who have shaped this emerging discourse; a wide-ranging literature review of texts relevant to the fields of development, climate change and human rights; discussions with development professionals who have the daily responsibility of operationalizing approaches to reducing vulnerability and building resilience; and finally drawing upon the author's own experience leading the Maldives' government's initiative on the Human Dimensions of Climate Change and as a consultant within the Social Dimensions of Climate Change Cluster of the World Bank's Social Development Department. It is important to stress that this paper is not a legal piece. Human rights are as much about ethical demands, calls for social justice, public awareness, advocacy, and political action as they are concerned with legal norms and rules. Sen has pointed out a 'theory of human rights cannot be sensibly confined within the juridical model in which it is frequently incarcerated' (Sen 2004, 319). Consequently this piece will focus on the wider, political economy aspects of the interface between human rights and climate change. It is further appropriate to state that this is not an advocacy piece. The paper deliberately avoids being normative or prescriptive in recommending a human rights-based approach to developing climate change operations. It does examine why vulnerable populations chose to embrace this approach, why they continue to view it as a transformative strategy, and what some of the successes and challenges have been.

This semiannual report, a product of the Office of the Chief Economist for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region of the World Bank, examines the nature of the very good overall performance of the LAC region in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and presents a comparative analysis of the post-crisis recovery patterns in the region vis-a-vis other regions. The first part of this report provides an overview of recent economic developments, an in depth look at the drivers of the post-crisis performance in the region, analyzes the external and domestic risks that could drag down growth performance in LAC, and discusses policy response options. The second part of the report documents the adverse impact of the crisis on the Caribbean region as well as its slow recovery. It distinguishes the poorer performance of English speaking Caribbean nations vis-a-vis non-English speaking ones, and highlights the dependence of the region on countries in the epicenter of the crisis, especially the United States, and the limited fiscal space that disabled a counter-cyclical policy response. The report concludes by emphasizing that skillful cycle management is necessary although far from sufficient to be able to turn what has to date been a cyclical recovery into a higher rate of trend growth. Moreover, countries experiencing a formidable windfall from the high commodity prices are in a unique position to seize the opportunity by judiciously saving and investing out of the windfall, they could relax the structural speed limits that have so far kept economic activity from rising to a higher long-run growth path.

Weather is the term used to describe the atmospheric conditions (heat, wetness, wind, etc.) prevailing at any one place and time. Climate is the sum of the prevailing weather conditions of a given place over a period of time, typically summed over many decades. This paper seeks to provide strategic directions for mainstreaming support for climate change within the World Bank's broader program of assistance to Vietnam. It does so by reviewing the current understanding of climate change in Vietnam and likely impacts, outlining principles to guide the Bank's engagement in this field, and applying these principles across a range of sectors, taking into account both near- and longer-term considerations. The report identifies elements of the Bank's current and planned portfolio of projects and analytical work that are contributing or will contribute to improved knowledge, planning, and actions, and it points to additional areas where new or more work seems warranted. The report represents a first iteration of a strategy for supporting Vietnam in managing the challenges posed by climate change. As more experience is gathered and as our understanding of both the science and the economics of climate change impacts in Vietnam improves, this strategy will need to be revisited and refined. While the process of climate change is expected to be a long-term phenomenon-with predictions for considerable changes through the second half of the twenty-first century, the focus of this report is on decisions and priorities that should govern the Bank's assistance during this decade. Given an array of uncertainties, extending the developing assistance planning vision much beyond 2020 is not practical. This time frame also corresponds to the government of Vietnam's own planning horizon.

This global report examines the opportunity for special economic zones to promote women's economic empowerment and boost zone and enterprise competitiveness in developing countries. The research covers Bangladesh, China, Costa Rica, Egypt, El Salvador, Jordan, Kenya, and the Philippines. The study focuses on women's economic empowerment in the context of zones at three levels: (i) fair employment and working conditions for female employees; (ii) equal access to opportunities for professional advancement; and (iii) investment opportunities for female entrepreneurs. The study also examines gender-friendly policies and practices that support these three main goals, which include a wide range of options around laws, regulations, labor policies, gender-sensitive professional development programs, family support mechanisms, women's health programs, and supplier diversity and capacity-building initiatives. This study establishes the business case for investments in women's economic empowerment in SEZs, and identifies good-practice examples of recommended enablers to address this investment opportunity. Enablers are defined as efforts to counteract the negative impact of the obstacles women face in economic participation, and can include policies and programs at the government, zone, and enterprise level. The study provides background, evidence of challenges and success stories, comprehensive recommendations, and a suite of tools and tips to implement the recommendations successfully.

Over the past 25 years, Uganda has experienced sustained economic growth, supported by a prudent macroeconomic framework and propelled by consistent policy reforms. Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 7.4 percent in the 2000s, compared with 6.5 in the 1990s. Economic growth has enabled substantial poverty reduction, with the proportion of people living in poverty more than halving from 56 percent in the 1992 to 23.3 percent in 2009. However, welfare improvements have not been shared equally; there is increasing urban rural inequality and inequality between regions. Revitalizing economic growth and tackling persistent poverty will require addressing a number of challenges. These include alleviating infrastructure bottlenecks; increasing agricultural productivity; managing land, water and other natural resources; addressing demographic challenges; and confronting governance issues. The development and management of water resources is intimately linked to Uganda's continued development ambitions. Water can be both a positive force-providing productive input to agriculture, industry, energy and tourism, and sustaining human and environmental health-as well as a destructive one-to which the devastating consequences of floods and droughts can attest. The National Water Resources Assessment (NWRA) estimates that Uganda's total renewable water resources are about 43 million cubic meters (MCM), less than was estimated in the Ministry of Water and Environment's (MWE's) Sector Investment Plan (SIP) in 2009. About 13 percent of this is sustainable groundwater (5.67 MCM) and the balance is surface water (37.41 MCM). About one half of all districts in Uganda experience annual rainfall deficits-the difference between evapotranspiration and rainfall-ranging from slightly above zero to 400 mm. The frequency of rainfall anomalies below normal (or long-term annual average) is significantly greater than the frequency of rainfall anomalies higher than normal. The Uganda water Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) aims to assist the Government of Uganda (GoU) in identifying priority actions for building on successful outcomes, tackling remaining challenges, and exploiting opportunities in Uganda's water sector. The objective of the water CAS is to define the World Bank's strategic role in supporting GoU to better manage and develop its water resources. The recommendations of the water CAS are complementary to the World Bank Uganda Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) 2011-15 priorities for Uganda and consistent with the country's development objectives as defined in the National Development Plan (NDP) and water and related sector plans and strategies, which form the foundation of the World Bank Uganda CAS.

This report reviews the status of Maghreb countries' economic integration with the world, with the Arab world, and within the Maghreb itself. It focuses on trade in goods and services, labor and capital flows, financial integration and cross-border infrastructure integration. It discusses the potential benefits of and key constraints to greater integration. The focus on trade liberalization with the European Union (EU) provides an opportunity for individual Maghreb countries to lock in policies that would eventually help them harmonize policies within their own region. The same argument can be made regarding accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Maghreb countries would reap significant additional benefits if, in parallel to reforms undertaken to improve trade liberalization with Europe, they improved conditions for streamlined trade among themselves. There is significant potential for trade in services in the financial sector, transportation and logistics, and communications and information, among other sectors. According to some studies, comprehensive services reforms that involve increased competition and regulatory streamlining would yield benefits that are at least twice the magnitude of those achieved through tariff removal alone.