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AbstractA procedure is outlined aiming at testing the bias due to omitted variables in vector autoregressions. The procedure consists first of filtering a vector of omitted variables and then testing the bias. The test does not rely on the availability of the omitted variables, and is based on a comparison between maximum-likelihood with Kalman filter vector autoregression and linear vector autoregression estimates. The empirical part considers two illustrative examples: a univariate regression analysis, based on the rational expectation-augmented Phillips curve; and a VAR with output, inflation and interest rates where a "price puzzle" arises.

This paper examines the problems of symbol
timing estimation and timing recovery for ultra wideband impulse radio signals. Two different approaches based onthe maximum likelihood technique are investigated. The first approach is based on derivative matched filter and the second one takes advantage of the early-late technique.
Furthermore, two non-coherent timing recovery circuits are proposed and discussed. The first circuit is a digital delay-locked loop (DDLL) and the second circuit is based on early-late technique. Finally, performance analysis of the proposed techniques for IEEE 802.15.3a channel models in terms of the minimum squared error (MSE) is
provided.

We study the problem of estimating the overall mutual information in M independent parallel discrete-time memory-less Gaussian channels from N independent data sample pairs per channel (inputs and outputs). We focus on the case where the number of active channels L is sparse in comparison with the total number of channels (L ≪ M), for which the direct application of the maximum likelihood principle is problematic due to overfitting, especially for moderate to small N. For this regime, we show that the bias of the mutual information estimate is reduced by resorting to the minimum description length (MDL) principle. As a result, simple pre-processing based on a per-channel threshold on the empirical squared correlation coefficient is required with a fixed threshold that monotonically decreases with N as 1 - N -1/N , for N ≥ 4. The resulting improvement is shown in terms of the estimated information bias. ; This work is supported by projects TEC2016-76409-C2-1-R (WINTER), Ministerio de Economia y Competividad, Spanish National Research Plan, and 2017 SGR 578 - AGAUR, Catalan Government. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (author's final draft)

In this paper, we proposed a new class of Weighted Rayleigh Distribution based on two parameters, one is scale parameter and the other is shape parameter which introduced in Rayleigh distribution. The main properties of this class are derived and investigated in . The moment method and maximum likelihood method are used to obtain estimators of parameters, survival function and hazard function. Real data sets are collected to investigate two methods which depend it in this study. A comparison was made between two methods of estimation.

In this paper, some estimators for the unknown shape parameters and reliability function of Basic Gompertz distribution were obtained, such as Maximum likelihood estimator and some Bayesian estimators under Squared log error loss function by using Gamma and Jefferys priors. Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted to compare the performance of all estimates of the shape parameter and Reliability function, based on mean squared errors (MSE) and integrated mean squared errors (IMSE's), respectively. Finally, the discussion is provided to illustrate the results that are summarized in tables.

"We present a new specification for the multinomial multiperiod Probit model with autocorrelated errors. In sharp contrast with commonly used specifications, ours is invariant with respect to the choice of a baseline alternative for utility differencing. It also nests these standard models as special cases, allowing for data based selection of the baseline alternatives for the latter. Likelihood evaluation is achieved under an Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) version of the standard GHK algorithm. Several simulation experiments highlight identification, estimation and pretesting within the new class of multinomial multiperiod Probit models." [author's abstract]

Errors in situation awareness (SA) can degrade the decision process. One particularly troublesome SA error is the representational error, which reflects problems with the misinterpretation of information based on a person's current mental model of a situation. This study investigates whether the schema-relatedness of information affects the likelihood that a person will fall prey to a representational error. Using a high-fidelity simulation of an air traffic control task, two hypotheses were examined: (a) Schema-bizarre information will affect SA more than schema-irrelevant information, and (b) schema-unexpected information will impact SA more than the absence of schema-expected information. The results supported the first hypothesis but not the second. These results provide an indication of the types of information that affect SA. Enhancing SA by emphasizing the type of information to which an operator is naturally less inclined to respond is one approach to improving system design and thereby performance.

2005年10月,中國政府發布"國務院批轉證監會關於提高上市公司品質意見的通知"。它允許和建議上市公司探索利用股權補償,以激勵員工。由於中國股市和股權補償的歷史很短,以及對企業的激勵機制的重要性。我們研究和發現公司治理和採納該計劃的可能性之間的關係是混合的。而具有較高的營業利潤/資產比率和淨利潤/總資產比率的公司更可能採用股權補償。我們還發現,通過在企業層面測量累積異常收益率(CAR),股權補償的公佈有積極的市場反應。此外,如果最大的部分限制性股份或購股權授予僱員工會委員或在公司的核心員工,市場反應更是積極。 ; In October 2005, the Chinese government released "Notice about the State Council of China approving China Securities Regulatory Commission to improve qualities of listed firms". It allows and suggests listed firms to explore the use of equity-based compensation in order to motivate employees. In this thesis, we find that the relationship between corporate governance and the likelihood of adopting the scheme is mixed. Firms with higher ratios of operating profits to assets and net profit to total assets are more likely to adopt equity-based compensation. We also discover positive market responses by measuring the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) to the announcement of equity-based compensation at the firm level. Moreover, if a larger portion of the restricted shares or options is granted to the groups of employees which are union committee members or core employees in the firm, the market response is much more positive and the CAR is larger in magnitude. ; Detailed summary in vernacular field only. ; Ko, Ka Yin. ; Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013. ; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-33). ; Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. ; Abstracts also in Chinese. ; Cover Page --- p.1 ; Abstract --- p.2 ; Chinese Version --- p.3 ; Contents --- p.4 ; Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.6 ; Chapter 2 --- Basic idea of equity-based compensation --- p.7 ; Chapter 3 --- Literature Review --- p.9 ; Chapter 4 --- History and Development --- p.11 ; Chapter 4.1. --- Equity-based compensation around the world --- p.11 ; Chapter 4.2. --- Regulations of equity-based compensation in China --- p.12 ; Chapter 5 --- Hypothesis --- p.13 ...

Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data‐dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with , where n is the number of trials.

The purpose of this study is to investigate if the wage setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy influences the wage setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage setting in the sectors exposed to international competition should influence the wage setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created based on assumptions of which sectors are and which sectors are not exposed to international competition. The wage adaptability between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate large wage adaptability between manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate low wage adaptability between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence of the existence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors.

We experimentally test an endogenous-timing investment model in which subjects privately observe their cost of investing and a signal correlated with the common investment return. Subjects overinvest, relative to Nash. We separately consider whether subjects draw inferences, in hindsight, and use foresight to delay profitable investment and learn from market activity. In contrast to Nash, cursed equilibrium, and level-k predictions, behavior hardly changes across our experimental treatments. Maximum likelihood estimates are inconsistent with belief-based theories. We offer an explanation in terms of boundedly rational rules of thumb, based on insights about the game, which provides a better fit than quantal response equilibrium. (JEL C72, D82, D83, G11)

This paper studies the role of business sentiment in the decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) across European Union (EU) member states. Based on the knowledge-capital model, the study employs the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and panel data to examine empirically the determinants of FDI across EU member states during the period 2003-2017. The empirical evidence suggests that better economic sentiment in an EU Member State induces MNEs to undertake FDI in that country, while worse economic sentiment in an EU member state motivates an MNE in that country to invest abroad.

This research suggests a particular probability of default model to
Microfinances Regulated in Mexico (SOFOM ER), based on the use of own mixed
variables (continuous and dichotomous) according to the credit behavior and the
optimization by maximum likelihood. Financial indicators such as savings, assets and
profits were used nationwide to reaffirm an implementation of new and more profitable
model in the sector of Mexico, indicating a yield of about 4% with the optimized credit
model. Within the limitations of the research lies the lack of robust information and
free consultation, due to bank secrecy in Mexico.

AbstractWe expand our previous deterministic power calculations by calculating the required sample size to detect C in ACE models. The theoretical expected value of the maximum log-likelihood for the AE model was derived using two optimisation methods and these gave near-identical results. Theoretical predictions were verified by computer simulation and the results agreed very well. We have developed a user-friendly web-based tool, TwinPower, to perform power calculations to detect either A or C for the classical twin design. This new tool can be found at http://genepi.qimr.edu.au/cgi-bin/twinpower.cgi