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MANY QUESTIONS OF INTEREST TO POLITICAL SCIENTISTS MAY BE ANSWERED WITH EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, WHICH STUDIES THE DURATION AND TIMING OF EVENTS. THE AUTHORS DISCUSS THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EVENT HISTORY DATA-DATA GIVING THE NUMBER, TIMING, AND SEQUENCE OF CHANGES IN A VARIABLE OF INTEREST. THESE METHODS ARE ILLUSTRATED BY EXAMINING THREE SUBSTANTIVE POLITICAL SCIENCE PROBLEMS: OVER MILITARY INTERVENTIONS, CHALLENGER DETERRENCE, AND CONGRESSIONAL CAREER PATHS; MANY OTHER APPLICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE ARTICLE IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE GROWING NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS THAT CURRENTLY EXIST IN POLITICAL SCIENCE AND TO ENCOURAGE GREATER USE OF THESE MODELS BY SHOWING WHY EVENT HISTORY MODELS ARE USEFUL IN POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND EXPLAINING HOW ONE SPECIFIES AND INTERPRETS THESE MODELS.

Election forecasting is a growing enterprise. Structural models relying on "fundamental" political and economic variables, principally to predict government performance, are popular in political science. Conventional wisdom though is these standard structural models fall short in predicting individual blocs' performance and their applicability to multiparty systems is restricted. We challenge this by providing a structural forecast of bloc performance in Ireland, a case primarily overlooked in the election forecasting literature. Our model spurns the economic and performance variables conventionally associated with structural forecasting enterprises and instead concentrates on Ireland's historical party and governance dynamics in the vein of testing whether these patterns alone offer solid predictions of election outcomes. Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), our approach, comprising measures of incumbency, short-term party support, and political and economic shocks, offers reasonable predictions of the vote share performance of four blocs: Ireland's two major parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Independents, and the Left bloc combined across 20 elections spanning 60 years.

Turkish history has been presented with a seamless continuity to the Republic of Turkey, starting from the Huns and state-centered narrative. This approach not only offers some cyclical advantages in writing and teaching, but it also carries some structural problems. It can be argued that the way to solve these is a Turkish historical model based on a "mentality-based approach." Although "mentality" is an important phenomenon that has guided the course of Turkish history, it has been ignored both in writing and teaching. The major cause for this neglect is represented by Turkish military schools, which have presented it as a lesson in the military context for the first time in modern history. Further, it was influenced by the state-centered historical narrative determined by the "project to create a modern Turkish nation" that emerged at the beginning of the twentieth century. Another reason for focusing on the impact of Turkey's Cold War military victory in is the existence of a historical narrative. It can be said that these cyclical developments have prevented a realistic and rich approach to the 2, 200-year-old Turkish history in various ways. This study aims to discuss a new historiographical approach that takes into account the great changes in the history of Turkey. To this end, it has been proposed to develop a mentality-based model according to which Turkish history may be written in a realistic way. Turkish history is thus discussed in three main periods: (1) that of the "Old Turks, " (2) that of the "Muslim Turks, " and (3) that of the "Modern Turks." In this new model, the spread of Turkish peoples and communities to Eurasia by migrating from Central Asia is examined through the steppe culture. It then points out the various Muslim cultures created by Turks who converted to Islam differently in different areas as well as the historical developments determined by the mentalities of their established states. Thus, it focuses on the culture(s) built by Muslim Turks and their new political-economic-social-religious structure(s). Finally, it mentions, in the process of modernization emerging as a necessity, the historical events and institutions that had a differentiating mentality in the Turkish state and society. Thus, it is thought that the model will make a contribution to the holistic understanding of Turkish history. © 2021 The Author(s). ; Peer-review: Externally peer-reviewed. Conflict of Interest: The authors have no conflict of interest to declare. Grant Support: The author declared that this study has received no financial support.

In this paper, I will discuss three classic problems in economic history. I label them "classic" because they are problems of general interest that share the central characteristic of classic problems: an extensive literature has not led to general agreement. They are taken from the literature on the history of the United States because of the wealth of data and secondary material on this country's history, but they all have their analogues or reflections in European history. They are the problems of labor scarcity in America, the depression of the 1930's (which Americans call the Great Depression), and the deflation of the late nineteenth century (which the British call the Great Depression).

Malthusian models occupy a central position in the interpretation and analysis of long-term economic and demographic change in preindustrial societies. The models are logically plausible and attractive, but ultimately they will have to be confronted with systematic evidence before being accepted. In this paper results are reported that cast some doubt on these models in the case of prefamine Ireland. The results indicate that the evidence supporting Malthusian views is not strong, and that the modus operandi of the nexus between economic and demographic variables is probably far more complex than is implied in standard Malthusian models.