Suchergebnisse

"Like many other assets, housing prices are quite volatile relative to observable changes in fundamentals. If we are going to understand boom-bust housing cycles, we must incorporate housing supply. In this paper, we present a simple model of housing bubbles that predicts that places with more elastic housing supply have fewer and shorter bubbles, with smaller price increases. However, the welfare consequences of bubbles may actually be higher in more elastic places because those places will overbuild more in response to a bubble. The data show that the price run-ups of the 1980s were almost exclusively experienced in cities where housing supply is more inelastic. More elastic places had slightly larger increases in building during that period. Over the past five years, a modest number of more elastic places also experienced large price booms, but as the model suggests, these booms seem to have been quite short. Prices are already moving back towards construction costs in those areas"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

The affordability of housing is a major policy issue that has increasingly become a concern for UK government as house prices have risen dramatically in recent years. This is partly because of the importance of affordability for the recruitment and retention of key workers, many of whom are on national pay scales and earning salaries that do not fully reflect the differences in prices that exist, in particular between London and the South East and the rest of Great Britain. Government policy is to increase the supply of housing in order to improve affordability in the greater South East. However, assuming that this expansion in housing supply is also to be accompanied by an expansion in employment, the outcome is that there will be both an increase in supply and in demand for housing, with the counter-intuitive result that, under one of the scenarios set out in this paper, in some areas affordability will worsen rather than improve.