Suchergebnisse

Hurricane evacuation management is very challenging, due to the lack of experience/data for extreme events, the complexity of human decision making and travel behavior, and the large uncertainty in storm prediction. Recent Hurricane Irma (2017) created the largest scale of evacuation in Florida's history, involving about 7 million people on mandatory evacuation order and 10 million evacuation vehicles. Here we reorganize the traditional hurricane-prediction and governmental-orderbased traffic demand generation model into an agent-based mean-field model that considers also human decision making, to perform fast evacuation modeling, using Irma as a study case. With a fast simulation algorithm, the model can be evaluated and calibrated with (often very limited) traffic observation, partially overcoming the problem of data deficiency. The calibrated model is found to well capture the global features of the evacuation process in Irma. The analysis also reveals that people may have put more weight on the predicted hurricane category than the governmental order when making evacuation decisions during Irma, indicating possibly a higher panic level than that in previous storms. The developed model can also be used to help improve evacuation management. ; This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (grant 1652448).

AbstractHurricane Irma was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history before landfall and caused a large evacuation. A total of 155 evacuees at interstate rest areas were asked to rank their concern about damage at their residence for six different geophysical hurricane hazards. Additionally, they were asked about their perceived maximum wind speeds (PMWS) and the wind speeds at which they thought damage would occur (DW) at their residence. These wind speeds were then compared to the actual peak wind gusts (APG) nearest to each resident's location. Results show a significantly greater concern for wind and storm size, compared to other hazards (tornadoes, rainfall/flooding, storm surge, falling trees). The mean PMWS of evacuees was greater than the mean APG, suggesting widespread misperception of wind speeds. Furthermore, the mean APG was less than the mean DW, and the mean PMWS was also higher than the DW. Additional tests found no significant differences in wind perception between residents with previous storm experiences and no experience, and no significant differences between those who resided in mandatory evacuation zip codes and those who did not. These results suggest that wind speed risk is poorly understood, even though it is a high concern for evacuees from hurricanes. The communication of wind speed risk in forecasts should possibly be modified by placing greater emphasis on postlandfall impacts, wind speed decay after landfall, and wind speeds that cause damage to different types of residences.

AbstractMaintaining and restoring electricity after a disaster helps to preserve the health and well-being of the elderly who are at increased risk of heat stress and may be dependent upon life-sustaining medical equipment. Mitigation policies altered in reaction to increased public interest without thorough consideration of industry-specific resources may contribute to delays in implementation and unrealized potential for emergency power coverage within individual facilities. The objectives of this research are twofold: (i) to examine the relationship between preexisting conditions of life-safety systems at facilities and date of implementation of emergency power regulation improvements and (ii) to assess the role of interagency connections—such as emergency management, fire safety, health care administration, and electricity providers—in facilitating compliance with safety regulations. A case study regarding the capacity to implement new emergency power regulations was conducted in Florida with 12 nursing homes affected by Hurricane Irma. The proposals to maintain temperatures and life-sustaining equipment under the updated regulations were not consistent among nursing homes within each county or between counties. Facilities with no preexisting life-safety violations were among the first to comply with new emergency power regulations. Those with prior violations often utilized procedural updates and external resources to comply. Nursing facilities that required additional support for remediation prior to the storm had plans approved earlier or without a second review as compared with those relying on internal resources. These results establish a baseline for the conditions associated with timely compliance including the importance of collective agency to mitigate risk.

Maintaining and restoring electricity after a disaster helps to preserve the health and well-being of the elderly who are at increased risk of heat stress and may be dependent upon life-sustaining medical equipment. Mitigation policies altered in reaction to increased public interest without thorough consideration of industry-specific resources may contribute to delays in implementation and unrealized potential for emergency power coverage within individual facilities. The objectives of this research are twofold: (i) to examine the relationship between preexisting conditions of life-safety systems at facilities and date of implementation of emergency power regulation improvements and (ii) to assess the role of interagency connections—such as emergency management, fire safety, health care administration, and electricity providers—in facilitating compliance with safety regulations. A case study regarding the capacity to implement new emergency power regulations was conducted in Florida with 12 nursing homes affected by Hurricane Irma. The proposals to maintain temperatures and life-sustaining equipment under the updated regulations were not consistent among nursing homes within each county or between counties. Facilities with no preexisting life-safety violations were among the first to comply with new emergency power regulations. Those with prior violations often utilized procedural updates and external resources to comply. Nursing facilities that required additional support for remediation prior to the storm had plans approved earlier or without a second review as compared with those relying on internal resources. These results establish a baseline for the conditions associated with timely compliance including the importance of collective agency to mitigate risk.

Understanding the factors that influence evacuation decision-making among local residents is of critical importance to those involved in monitoring and managing weather-related hazards. This study examined both geophysical and social variables that we believe influenced individual decision-making on whether to stay home, seek out a public shelter, or leave the area entirely during Hurricane Irma. A 23-item survey was administered to a convenience sample of adults (n = 234) who resided within a coastal Florida county that received an evacuation warning during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Results suggested sources of information relied on through media, government, family, and social networks contributed to differences in evacuation behavior. Moreover, potential exposure to weather-related conditions, such as flooding and strong winds, along with the likelihood to use available social resources, also influenced decisions to stay or leave the threatened area. Finally, prior evacuation behavior was significantly associated with the decision to evacuate during Hurricane Irma. The decision to evacuate for Hurricane Irma was shown to impact decision-making to evacuate for major hurricanes in the future. If these findings are applied to future storms, a broader conclusion can be made that residents in vulnerable areas may be more likely to evacuate for major hurricanes than they were in the past. Improved understanding of evacuation decision-making can assist emergency managers in preparation and planning to reduce casualties resulting from a hurricane or other weather-related hazard.

Understanding the factors that influence evacuation decision-making among local residents is of critical importance to those involved in monitoring and managing weather-related hazards. This study examined both geophysical and social variables that we believe influenced individual decision-making on whether to stay home, seek out a public shelter, or leave the area entirely during Hurricane Irma. A 23-item survey was administered to a convenience sample of adults (n = 234) who resided within a coastal Florida county that received an evacuation warning during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Results suggested sources of information relied on through media, government, family, and social networks contributed to differences in evacuation behavior. Moreover, potential exposure to weather-related conditions, such as flooding and strong winds, along with the likelihood to use available social resources, also influenced decisions to stay or leave the threatened area. Finally, prior evacuation behavior was significantly associated with the decision to evacuate during Hurricane Irma. The decision to evacuate for Hurricane Irma was shown to impact decision-making to evacuate for major hurricanes in the future. If these findings are applied to future storms, a broader conclusion can be made that residents in vulnerable areas may be more likely to evacuate for major hurricanes than they were in the past. Improved understanding of evacuation decision-making can assist emergency managers in preparation and planning to reduce casualties resulting from a hurricane or other weather-related hazard.

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of individuals' social connections in their decision to either evacuate or not evacuate in the days preceding the landfall of Hurricane Irma. Using Hurricane Irma in September 2017 as a case study, a survey was conducted on two groups (those who evacuated and those who did not evacuate) to assess people's social connections specifically examining three dimensions: dependability, density, and diversity. These variables, together with socioeconomic variables (e.g., race/ethnicity, age, education), were considered in order to better explain the influences on evacuation decision-making. To collect accurate ephemeral decision-making data from evacuees, the surveys were completed during the evacuation for those who evacuated and shortly after the passage of Hurricane Irma for those who did not evacuate. Through statistical analyses, it was concluded that density and diversity of people's social networks played a significant role in the decision to evacuate or not, with evacuees having more dense and diverse relationships. On the other hand, the perceived dependability of a person's social connections (i.e., their perceived access to resources and support) did not significantly impact the decision to evacuate for Hurricane Irma. This study has important implications for adding to the knowledge base on community-based sustainable disaster preparedness and resilience.

This project uses critical discourse analysis to understand the relationship between U.S. news media coverage on natural disasters like Hurricane Irma and the ideological implications of that coverage. More specifically, in news media discourse, personification of natural disasters alienates humans from their actions, many of which are actively aiding in the advancement of anthropogenic climate change. By taking an in-depth look at how various factors come into play, like the humans vs. nature binary, the polarization of American politics around climate change, and various news media framings, the essay demonstrates that the personification of Irma is both the result of and reinforcement of climate change misrepresentation in news media. 47 pages.

Despite pushes to increase the level of disaster preparedness among businesses, few studies have empirically explored the extent to which businesses benefit from adopting preparedness measures. The present study aims to narrow this research gap by examining whether businesses with higher levels of perceived disaster preparedness experience fewer hurricane impacts and report a higher perceived recovery rating from disasters in comparison to businesses with lower levels of perceived disaster preparedness. Using data gathered from 19 businesses in Florida, United States, affected by Hurricane Irma in 2017, the authors find that businesses perceived they were very prepared for Hurricane Irma. However, businesses with higher perceived preparedness ratings did not always experience fewer hurricane impacts or report a higher perceived recovery rating. Responses from business owners and risk managers provide insights into why higher perceived preparedness ratings did or did not translate into fewer hurricane impacts and a higher perceived recovery rating.

In September 2017, following two catastrophic hurricanes, Puerto Rico's wireline, wireless and cable networks were rendered largely inoperable. As this article will illustrate, the causes of this devasting failure of the telecommunications sector were not attributable to Hurricanes Irma and Maria alone. The hurricanes revealed the fragility of Puerto Rico's telecommunications infrastructure, which failed, leaving the majority of Puerto Rican citizens without a means to communicate by phone or by Internet or to reach 911 for emergency services for weeks or months. This article will also summarize the 33 courses of action (COAs) for rebuilding the telecommunications sector that were proposed by the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) operated by the RAND Corporation and adopted by the government of Puerto Rico. These COAs were prepared as part of the Congressionally mandated Puerto Rico economic and disaster recovery plan. Even though significant progress has been made toward recovery in Puerto Rico, substantial investment is still required to achieve a resilient and robust telecommunications sector. The estimated cost for the 33 COAs was $3.2 billion. The overall cost estimate for the Puerto Rico recovery plan, including all sectors, was $139 billion.

Introduction -- Prestorm Conditions and Operational Challenges -- Water Sector Damage and Needs Assessment -- Water Sector Recovery and Courses of Action -- The Way Forward: Observations on Enhancing Resilience to Future Disasters -- Appendix A: Courses of Action.