Strategic delay and information cascades
In: Journal of economics, Band 114, Heft 1, S. 63-74
ISSN: 1617-7134
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In: Journal of economics, Band 114, Heft 1, S. 63-74
ISSN: 1617-7134
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 121, Heft 553, S. 763-792
ISSN: 1468-0297
The precise mechanisms by which the information ecosystem polarizes society remain elusive. Focusing on political sorting in networks, we develop a computational model that examines how social network structure changes when individuals participate in information cascades, evaluate their behavior, and potentially rewire their connections to others as a result. Individuals follow proattitudinal information sources but are more likely to first hear and react to news shared by their social ties and only later evaluate these reactions by direct reference to the coverage of their preferred source. Reactions to news spread through the network via a complex contagion. Following a cascade, individuals who determine that their participation was driven by a subjectively "unimportant" story adjust their social ties to avoid being misled in the future. In our model, this dynamic leads social networks to politically sort when news outlets differentially report on the same topic, even when individuals do not know others' political identities. Observational follow network data collected on Twitter support this prediction: We find that individuals in more polarized information ecosystems lose cross-ideology social ties at a rate that is higher than predicted by chance. Importantly, our model reveals that these emergent polarized networks are less efficient at diffusing information: Individuals avoid what they believe to be "unimportant" news at the expense of missing out on subjectively "important" news far more frequently. This suggests that "echo chambers"—to the extent that they exist—may not echo so much as silence.
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In this talk I introduce Transcendental Information Cascades, a method to understand the temporal dynamics of naturally occurring complex systems through the lens of a specific kind of spatio-temporal network that represents information token recurrence. The method suits very well for exploratory data analysis when it is unknown what is going on at the very low levels of a system's dynamics, and allows switching between looking at individual events or accumulated event sequences. I will present one application of this method in a digital humanities project where we analysed the entire corpus of Charles Dickens's novels and discuss the potential it has for other application areas such as the analysis of brain wave recordings, patent mining or the study of online communities for example. These are the slides of a talk at the RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Computational Social Sciences and Humanities (Germany, date of the talk 06-03-2018) {"references": ["Popper, K., 2013. Knowledge and the Body-Mind Problem: In defence of interaction. Routledge.", "Berners-Lee, Tim; Mark Fischetti (1999). Weaving the Web: The Original Design and Ultimate Destiny of the World Wide Web by its inventor. Britain: Orion Business. ISBN 0-7528-2090-7.", "Luczak-Roesch, M., Tinati, R., Simperl, E., Van Kleek, M., Shadbolt, N., & Simpson, R. (2014). Why won't aliens talk to us? Content and community dynamics in online citizen science. Proceedings of the Eighth AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, {ICWSM} 2014, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA, June 1-4, 2014.", "Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch. \"A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades.\" Journal of political Economy (1992): 992-1026.", "Cheng, Justin, et al. \"Can cascades be predicted?.\" Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on World wide web. International World Wide Web Conferences Steering Committee, 2014.", "Markus Luczak-Roesch, Ramine Tinati, and Nigel Shadbolt. 2015. When Resources Collide: Towards ...
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Abstract Through a content analysis of 8,800 news items and six months of front pages of three Brazilian newspapers, all dealing with corruption and political transgression, the present article documents the remarkable bias of media coverage toward corruption scandals. Said bias is examined as an informational phenomenon, arising from key systemic and commercial factors of Brazil's news media: an information cascade of news on corruption formed, destabilizing the governing coalition and legitimizing the impeachment process of Dilma Rousseff. As this process gained momentum, questions of accountability were disregarded by the media, with harmful effects for democracy.
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International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
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International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
BASE
International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
BASE
International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
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In: Entropy ; Volume 15 ; Issue 11 ; Pages 4553-4568
We analyze information diffusion using empirical data that tracks online communication around two instances of mass political mobilization that took place in Spain in 2011 and 2012. We also analyze protest-related communications during the year that elapsed between those protests. We compare the global properties of the topological and dynamic networks through which communication took place, as well as local changes in network composition. We show that changes in network structure underlie aggregated differences on how information diffused: an increase in network hierarchy is accompanied by a reduction in the average size of cascades. The increasing hierarchy affects not only the underlying communication topology but also the more dynamic structure of information exchange ; the increase is especially noticeable amongst certain categories of nodes (or users). Our findings suggest that the relationship between the structure of networks and their function in diffusing information is not as straightforward as some theoretical models of diffusion in networks imply.
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In: Network science, Band 9, Heft S1, S. S157-S174
ISSN: 2050-1250
AbstractCritical cascades are found in many self-organizing systems. Here, we examine critical cascades as a design paradigm for logic and learning under the linear threshold model (LTM), and simple biologically inspired variants of it as sources of computational power, learning efficiency, and robustness. First, we show that the LTM can compute logic, and with a small modification, universal Boolean logic, examining its stability and cascade frequency. We then frame it formally as a binary classifier and remark on implications for accuracy. Second, we examine the LTM as a statistical learning model, studying benefits of spatial constraints and criticality to efficiency. We also discuss implications for robustness in information encoding. Our experiments show that spatial constraints can greatly increase efficiency. Theoretical investigation and initial experimental results also indicate that criticality can result in a sudden increase in accuracy.
This paper responds to the Alpine Rendez-Vous (ARV) 'crisis' in technology enhanced learning (TEL). It takes a contested area of policy, rapid change in the National Health Service (NHS), and documents the responses to 'information overload' by group of General Practitioners Practices in the North of England. Located between the spaces identified by Traxler and Lally as 'competitive industrialisation' and Web 1.0, and the consumer/ customer focus and ubiquitous ownership enabled by portable and devices and web 2.0, in this work we see the parallels of the responses of publicly funded bodies moving towards privatisation as part of a neo-liberal agenda. Interviews with health professionals revealed marginalized spaces for informal learning in their workplaces; and a desire to build a community that would enable them to overcome the time/space barriers to networking. The EU Learning Layers Integrating Project develops mobile and social technologies that unlock and enable peer production within and across traditional workplace boundaries. Through the health professional narratives, we capture insights into their daily life, enable the articulation of their needs for an online 'Help-Seeking' networking service, underpinned by their desire to consult what Vygotsky calls 'the more capable peer'.
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The pandemic of the 2019 novel Coronavirus has seen unprecedented exponential growth. Within three months, 192 countries have been affected, crossing more than 1 million confirmed cases and over 60 thousand deaths until the first week of April. Decision making in such a pandemic becomes difficult due to limited data on the nature of the disease and its propagation, course, prevention, and treatment. The pandemic response has varied from country to country and has resulted in a heterogeneous timeline for novel Coronavirus propagation. We compared the public health measures taken by various countries and the potential impact on the spread. We studied 6 countries including China, Italy, South Korea, Singapore, United Kingdom(UK), United States(US), and the special administrative region of Hong Kong. All articles, press releases, and websites of government entities published over a five-month period were included. A comparison of the date of the first diagnosed case, the spread of disease, and time since the first case and major public health policy implemented for prevention and containment and current cases was done. An emphasis on early and aggressive border restriction and surveillance of travelers from infected areas, use of information technology, and social distancing is necessary for control of the novel pandemic. Moving forwards, improvement in infrastructure, and adequate preparedness for pandemics is required.
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In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Band 68, Heft 3-4, S. 581-592
"We study the effect of transaction costs (e.g., a trading fee or a transaction tax, like the Tobin tax) on the aggregation of private information in financial markets. We implement a financial market with sequential trading and transaction costs in the laboratory. According to theory, eventually all traders neglect their private information and abstain from trading (i.e., a no-trade informational cascade occurs). We find that, in the experiment, informational no-trade cascades occur when theory predicts they should (i.e., when the trade imbalance is sufficiently high). At the same time, the proportion of subjects irrationally trading against their private information is smaller than in a financial market without transaction costs. As a result, the overall efficiency of the market is not significantly affected by the presence of transaction costs." [author's abstract]
In: Journal of the International AIDS Society, Band 17, Heft 4S3
ISSN: 1758-2652
IntroductionThe cascade of HIV care is one of the main tools to assess the individual and public health benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and identify barriers of treatment as prevention (TasP) concept realization. We aimed to characterize the changes in engagement of HIV‐positive persons in care in Russia during three years (2011–2013).MethodsWe defined seven steps in the cascade of care framework: HIV infected (estimation data), HIV diagnosed, linked to HIV care, retained in HIV care, need ART, on ART and viral suppressed (VL < 1000 copies/mL during 12 month ART). Information was extracted from the Federal AIDS Centre database and from the national monitoring forms of Rospotrebnadzor from the beginning of 2011 to 31 December 2013.ResultsNearly 668,032 HIV‐diagnosed Russian residents were alive by the end of 2013, which consisted 49% of the estimated 1,363,330 people living with HIV. Among the alive HIV‐diagnosed patients, 516,403 (77%) were linked to care and 481,783 (72%) were retained. Of 163,822 (25% of HIV diagnosed) patients who were eligible for ART, 156,858 (96%) were on treatment while 127,054 (81%) had viral suppression. However, only 19% of HIV‐diagnosed patients achieved viral suppression which is necessary to prevent viral transmission. We noted substantial improvements over time in the proportion of individuals on ART. The proportion of patients who received ART increased from 24% in 2011 to 34% in 2013. The most significant leakages of patients during three years were on steps: "HIV infected → HIV diagnosed" (loss −55% in 2011, −53% in 2012, and −51% in 2013), "HIV diagnosed → Linked to care" (−23% yearly) and "Retained in care → Need ART" (−76%, −70%, and −66%, respectively).ConclusionThe stages of HIV diagnosis and estimation of ART eligibility were the most vulnerable to leakage. Encouraging HIV testing and earlier ART initiation are needed to maximize the effects of TasP interventions and to contain the spread of HIV in Russia.