The Iron Triangle formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management – cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindness cause forecasts to fall short of actual costs. Firstly, optimism bias has been linked to effects of deception and delusion, which is caused by taking the inside-view and ignoring distributional information when making decisions. Secondly, we argued before that Black Swan Blindness makes decision-makers ignore outlying events even if decisions and judgements are based on the outside view. Using a sample of 1,471 ICT projects with a total value of USD 241 billion – we answer the question: Can we show the different effects of Normal Performance, Delusion, and Deception? We calculated the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of (actual-forecast)⁄forecast. Our results show that the CDF changes at two tipping points – the first one transforms an exponential function into a Gaussian bell curve. The second tipping point transforms the bell curve into a power law distribution with the power of 2. We argue that these results show that project performance up to the first tipping point is politically motivated and project performance above the second tipping point indicates that project managers and decision-makers are fooled by random outliers, because they are blind to thick tails. We then show that Black Swan ICT projects are a significant source of uncertainty to an organisation and that management needs to be aware of. Finally, we draw implications about the underlying generative processes that lead to power law behaviour, which might help to further understand the pitfalls and shortcomings of cost and cost risk management in ICT projects.
Военно-промышленный комплекс, определяя в современных условиях базу для реализации экономического потенциала страны, претерпевает значительные структурные изменения. В новых внешнеполитических условиях выработка решений задач управления комплексом на государственном уровне и формирование прогнозов его развития приобретают критическое значение не только в целях удовлетворения требованиям национальной обороноспособности и международной безопасности, но и обеспечения экономического роста государства в целом. В статье исследуется проблема экономического анализа военно-промышленного комплекса как специфической подсистемы национальной экономики. Проведен краткий обзор работ, посвященных системному подходу и исследованию систем. Доказана актуальность использования системного подхода в экономическом анализе военно-промышленного комплекса при определении его структуры и ограничений. Предложена оригинальная трактовка понятия «военно-промышленный комплекс» как подсистемы национальной экономической системы, обозначены ее основные элементы, связи и особенности. Приведен сравнительный анализ авторского понимания военно-промышленного комплекса и концепции «железного треугольника», выделены ключевые сходства и различия трактовок. Обоснована целесообразность применения методики Э. Голдратта для обнаружения ограничения подсистемы военно-промышленного комплекса на примере России. Выявлено «слабое звено» подсистемы военно-промышленного комплекса Российской Федерации. ; Abstract. The military-industrial complex laying in the modern context the basis for realizing the country's potential is undergoing significant structural changes. Current foreign policy challenges imply that devising solutions to the problems of control and preparing forecasts of its development become critical to both meeting the national defense and international security requirements as well as to ensuring the country's economic growth. The paper deals with the problem of economic analysis of the military-industrial complex as a subsystem within a national economy. It briefly reviews the key research on systems approach and systems study. The rationale for systems approach application in economic analysis of the military-industrial complex structure and constrains is later brought up. The article reveals the original military-industrial complex concept that treats it as a subsystem of a national economy system and discovers its basic features, elements and connections among them. The author's interpretation of the military-industrial complex is then benchmarked against the existing concept of an iron triangle by identifying the key similarities and differences between the approaches. It advances the relevance of E. Goldratt's method for defining constraints of the military-industrial complex subsytem drawing on the example of Russian Federation. The article, lastly, presents the Russia's military-industrial complex subsystem weakest link.
One of the consequences of the financial crisis of 2008 was a renewed focus on the issue of deregulation. The broadly recognized connection between the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression and the systematic deregulation of our financial markets dating back over three decades reinvigorated the economic and political debate around the appropriate balance between market freedom and government regulation. This paper explores this theme historically, analyzing several economic markets that were highly regulated prior to the late 20th century. Through this analysis it establishes a foundational framework for the study of the widespread deregulation of the late 20th century. This paper first addresses the study of regulatory policy and its evolution throughout the 20th century. This section primarily focuses on the policy model proposed by George Stigler that acts as the foundational model for its conclusion. It then establishes the observed industries, the Airline and Trucking Industries, and provides evidence of their transition from industries that previously operated with strict governmental control of economic functions to markets that operated freely with little regulatory interference. This observed deregulation establishes the primary thesis question for this paper: what were the primary political and economic forces that caused the deregulation of these industries? The majority of this paper is dedicated to establishing alterations in the political and economic environment during this period that created these policy changes. This paper concludes that separate changes in the political and economic environment caused the deregulation of these industries. First, the evolution of subsystems from closed iron triangle systems to more complex issue networks granted smaller interest groups more influence on policy decisions. Thus, these groups' desired policies, which involved less regulation, received more consideration from the regulating agency. Second, the significant rise in the CPI increased the political pressure on elected officials to reduce prices. This pressure elevated the financial cost of regulating agencies to implement and maintain regulations that contributed to higher prices. These combined shifts caused a sudden, extreme removal of regulations in these markets. By establishing a causal analysis of the presented industries this paper creates a foundational case study for the broader, more complex deregulation that occurred throughout other industries during this time period.
The five years from 2010 to 2014 witnessed significant developments in the further education and training (FET) sector in Ireland. This period culminated in the launch, in 2014, of the first ever National FET Strategy in the history of the state which set out a roadmap to achieve the vision of a world-class FET system in Ireland. This research aims to explain how and why these developments took place and if the developmental trajectory is consistent with realising the vision of a world-class FET system. This research takes a case study approach to assessing the evolution of FET in Ireland from a skill formation perspective. The primary focus of this case study is the period from 1973, when Ireland joined the EEC, up to 2014 and the launch of the FET Strategy. The critical analysis of the developmental trajectory examines FET as part of the skill formation institution of the state. Accordingly, this research is placed within the theoretical framework of historical institutionalism. Given the aim of having a ?world-class? FET system in Ireland, the research begins with a review of the international context of skill formation systems in advanced economies. This is followed by a review of the evolution of skill formation in Ireland prior to 1973. Four themes emerge from these reviews which scaffold the analysis of the two primary data sources in this research ? convergence of education and training, active labour market policy, convergence of certification and qualifications, and regionalisation and rationalisation of the public administration of further education and training. 32 published government policy documents are analysed using a semantic content analysis, and 13 semi-structured interviews were conducted with key policy actors in the FET policy space to assess the relationships between the key stakeholders over this period, analysed with the frame of the ?iron triangle of government?, i.e. the state, executive agencies, and interest groups. The results of the analyses are triangulated and 32 findings emerge from the research. Based on Busemeyer?s concept of the skill regime, this study proposes a model for an Irish Skill Regime which identifies the inter-institutional relationship within the skill formation space. The need to optimise the quality and balance of these relationships is also highlighted. In addition, the legacy of neglect and underinvestment has resulted in a capacity deficit in the FET sector in Ireland. There is a need for significant investment to address this deficit if the ambition of a ?world-class? FET system is to be achieved.
Machine generated contents note: About the author Preface Acknowledgements Chapter 1 Introduction Structure of the book Chapter 2 Theoretical Context Management context Project transitions Project management as practice Systems theory and networks Transient relationships Dyadic contractual relationships and structure Permanent and temporary organising Structure and networks Information classification Nodes and linkages Summary Chapter 3 Networks and Projects Network definition Origins and history Problems with projects Actor role classification and ritualistic behaviour Routines Are networks a response to uncertainty in projects? Temporary project systems and their replication# Beyond the iron triangle Why networks? Individuals and firms Problems associated with the use of SNA in project research Summary Chapter 4 Why Networks? Definition Why choose social network analysis? Problems associated with the use of SNA inn project research Concepts and terminology Defining the population What is a network? Actor characteristics Some final thoughts Conclusion Chapter 5 Self-organising networks in projects What do project clients want? Dangerous assumptions Implications if these assumptions are incorrect Networks and uncertainty Does it matter how we conceptualise the project? Procurement through markets and hierarchies; project design and delivery through networks Summary and conclusions Chapter 6 Game Theory and Networks Some history to start Game theory applied to construction projects What is a game? Key assumptions Benefits of applying game theory to project networks Other considerations Choices about actions and co-players: The Prisoner's Dilemma Nash equilibrium Anti-coordination behaviour: Hawk-Dove and Chicken Game theory and information exchange network formation Game theory and five dangerous assumptions Summary and conclusions Chapter 7 Network roles and personality types Network roles: prominent disseminators, gatekeeper hoarders, isolates, dyads and triads, boundary spanners and bridges Personality traits Humour and behaviour in networks Profiling and ideal project network actor Specific personality traits Network roles and personality traits Summarising on actor traits and project networks Chapter 8 Network enabling What do we mean by network enabling? Trust Empathy Reciprocity, favours and psychological contracts Implications for violations of psychological contracts in networks Generosity Characteristics of individual that are destructive for networks Narcissism Egotism Summary Chapter 9 Project Networks and BIM BIM origins BIM and information management Information management and organisation structure The BIM model as an artefact Self-organising networks in the context of design BIM and networks, a research agenda Chapter 10 Introduction to the Case Studies Technical overview Researcxh funding Summary Chapter 11: Case Study No.1- Communities in Self-Organising Projects Networks Data collection Data analysis Findings Communities in self-organising project networks Summary Chapter 12: Case Study No.2 -- Dysfunctional Prominence in Self-Organising Project Networks Data collection Data analysis Actor prominence measures Summary Chapter 13: Case Study No.3 -- Costing Networks Conceptual framework Network costs Data analysis Summary Chapter 14: Summary and Conclusions Brief summary of each chapter Theoretical Issues What might industry learn from the content of this book? Appendix References Index
We explore settlement structures and hierarchy found in different archaeological periods in northern, specifically the Khabur Triangle (KT), and southern Mesopotamia (SM) using a spatial interaction entropy maximization (SIEM) modeling and simulation method. Regional settlement patterns are investigated in order to understand what feedback levels for settlement benefits, or incentives, and abilities to move or disperse between sites in a landscape and period could have enabled observed settlement structures to emerge or be maintained. Archaeological and historical data are then used to interpret the best results. We suggest that in the Late Chalcolithic (LC) and first half of the Early Bronze Age (EBA), the KT and SM appear to have comparable urban patterns and development, where settlement advantage feedbacks and movement are similarly shaping the two regions for those periods. Within period variations, such as restrictions to population diffusion or movement in the EBA, are possible. In the KT during the Middle Bronze Age (MBA), multiple centers begin to emerge, suggesting a lack of social cohesion and/or political fragmentation. This is similar to SM in the MBA, but we also see the emergence of a single, dominant site. In the Iron Age (IA), movement in the KT likely becomes the least constrained in all assessed periods, as socio-political cohesion facilitates this process, with small sites now the norm and dominance by one state over the region is evident. For the same period in SM, a single site (Babylon) obtains significant settlement advantages relative to its neighbors and easy movement enables it to become far larger in size and likely socially, economically, and politically dominant. Overall, the results demonstrate that the method is useful for archaeologists and social theorists in allowing them to compare different archaeological survey results, with varied spatial dimensions and diachronically, while providing a level of explanation that addresses empirical settlement patterns observed.
General ideas. Keepers of time and guardians of space--some basic concepts of astronomy and power / Michael A. Rappenglück -- The social life of celestial bodies: the sky in cultural perspective / Stanislaw Iwaniszewski -- Astral high-fashion clothing: relations between costumes and astronomy / Michael A. Rappenglück -- Neolithic cultures. Astronomy, landscape and power in eastern Anatolia / Juan Antonio Belmonte and A. César González García -- Prehistoric sanctuaries in Daunia / Elio Antonello, Vito F. Polcaro, Anna M. Tunzi and Mariangela Lo Zupone -- Archaeoastronomical world from Romania / Iharka Szücs-Csillik, Alexandra Comṣa and Zoia Maxim -- Megalithic cultures. Equinoctial full moon models and non-gaussianity: Portuguese dolmens as a test case / Fabio Silva -- Kreisgrabenanlagen: expressions of power linked to the sky / Georg Zotti and Wolfgang Neubauer -- Re-structuring the world of Scottish megalithic sites and animating astronomical phenomena through 3D computerisation / David Fisher -- Recumbent stone circles: theory overview based on fieldwork conducted at three sites / Liz Henty -- Power of calendar and clocks. Calendars as symbols of power / Sonja Draxler and Max E. Lippitsch -- Astronomical clocks-representations of power / Gudrun Wolfschmidt -- Chalcolithic/Bronze Age/Iron Age cultures. Luni-solar symbolism in an artefact from Bulgaria / Vesselina Koleva -- Astronomy, religion and the structure of society in prehistoric Finland / Marianna Ridderstad -- Astronomy and the power: the singular building of Turó del Calvari (Vilalba del arcs, Tarragona) / Manuel Pérez Gutiérrez, DAvid Bea Castaño, Jordi Diloli Fons and Samuel Sardà Seuma -- Precise astronomical measurements of ancient Dacian sites within the Pythagorean mega-triangle Sarmizegetusa-Regia-Retezat-Parâng / Frank Kerek and Florin Stanescu -- Orientation in the landscape of open air rock art in the mountains between the Alva and Ceira Rivers: the Podomorph carvings / Fernando Pimenta, Nuno Ribeiro, Andrew Smith and Luís Tirapicos -- Total solar eclipses close to the Pleiades on the Nebra disk and Swedish rock-carvings / Göran Henriksson -- Archaeoastronomical analysis of the Karataevo Fortress Sanctuary on the northern Black Sea coast / Larisa N. Vodolazhskaya -- Egypt, Minoan culture. Stellar and solar components in ancient Egyptian mythology and royal ideology / Rolf Krauss -- The elite at Knossos as custodians of the calendar / Göran Henriksson and Mary Blomberg -- Prince P.A. Putyatin was the forerunner of Russian astronomy / N. Dmitrieva -- Cultures in Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Africa. The celestial engine at the heart of traditional Hawaiian culture / W. Bruce Masse -- Cosmic power: themes of astronomy and power within the film Cosmic Africa / Jarita C. Holbrook -- The concept of power and cosmology: manipulation of cosmology by spiritualists or native doctors (Dibia), a case study of the Igbo Society of Nigeria / Barth Chukwuezi -- Some aspects of European moon mythology / Mare Kõiva and Andres Kuperjanov -- Stars of power--astronomical objects in ancient princely insignia / Max E. Lippitsch and Sonja Draxler -- Cultures of North America, Mesoamerica and South America. Astronomy and power in Mesoamerica / Ivan Šprajc -- Possible Mesoamerican naked-eye observation of sunspots - I: evidence from the Tikal ball court marker / Richard R. Zito -- Calendric-astronomical orientation as an expression of power in Mesoamerica / Jesús Galindo Trejo -- Possible Mesoamerican naked-eye observation of Sunspots - II: evidence from the codices / Richard R. Zito -- Power, danger and liminality: moon, stars and women among the Toba of Western Formosa (Gran Chaco, Argentina) / Cecilia Paula Gómez -- A topoogy of power: sky and social space in the Argentinean Chaco / Alejandro Martín López -- Antiquity. Among the circles: a geometical analysis of the Teatro Marittimo in Villa Adriana / Marzia Monaco, Silvia Gaudenzi and Marcello Ranieri -- Medieval time in orient and occident. Astronomy and the state: time, space and power in the foundation of Baghdad / Nicholas Campion -- Astronomy and politics: three case studies on the service of astrology to society / S. Mohammad Mozaffari -- The Dustūr al-munajjimīn or does a sovereign need astronomy to structure his reign? / Petra G. Schmidl -- The orientation of pre-romanesque churches in Spain: Asturias, a case of power re-affirmation / A. César González García, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Lourdes Costa Ferrer -- Astronomical heritage in Bosnia and Herzegovina: late medieval tombstones and astral motifs / Zalkida Hadžibegović -- The star of Magi: transient astronomical events as sources of inspiration in late Medieval art / M. Incerti, F. Bònoli and V.F. Polcaro -- A social history of medieval astronomy / A. Martocchia and V.F. Polcaro -- Astronomy and politics in the modern age. Astronomy and politicians / Magda Stavinschi and Cătălin Mosoia -- Comets in political caricatures: examples from the 18th to 21st century / Barbara Rappenglück
