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Since childhood, journalist John Hendrickson has lived with a stutter: wrestling with it, searching for escapes from it, and working to accept it. John, who rose to national prominence after interviewing then-presidential candidate Joe Biden about his own stutter in 2019, recently wrote a book about his experiences and the science behind stuttering. John joined David to talk about living with a stutter, his work as a journalist, interviewing Biden, and reexamining his own relationship with his stutter in his book "Life on Delay: Making Peace with a Stutter."To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

John Anzalone first met President Joe Biden while working as a field organizer in Iowa on Biden's 1988 presidential campaign. Thirty-three years later, John was the top pollster for Biden's 2020 campaign, this time watching as Biden secured the presidency. John joined David to talk about growing up in a working-class family in Michigan, how living away from Washington helps inform his work, the surprising way Covid-19 impacted the 2020 polls, and why he believes Biden is handing Democrats a strong platform heading into the 2022 midterms.
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John Weaver, veteran Republican strategist, talks to David about how he sees the election unfolding and what the result will mean for governing in Washington, what he thinks John Kasich will do next, and how a career in politics takes a personal toll on individuals and their families.
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After seven years as the host of CNN's "Inside Politics," John King is stepping away from the anchor desk and returning to his reporter roots, traveling the country to talk to Americans across the political spectrum ahead of the 2024 presidential election. John joined David to talk about his start in journalism at the Associated Press and his move to television, his multiple sclerosis diagnosis and his decision to speak out about the disease, and the challenges of working in the news industry during the time of Trump.To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

John Dean, former counsel to President Richard Nixon, was directly involved in covering up the Watergate break-in. But he has also been credited with taking down Nixon, thanks to his critical testimony before the Senate committee investigating the scandal. In recognition of Watergate's 50th anniversary, John joined David to talk about his professional journey that landed him in the White House at just 31 years old, his involvement in Watergate, parallels between Nixon and Donald Trump, his concerns about the present day Republican Party, and his work on CNN's "Watergate: Blueprint for a Scandal."
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John Podesta was looking forward to retirement when he got a call from the Biden administration asking him to serve as the senior adviser to the President for clean energy innovation and implementation. A long-time advocate for the environment in the nonprofit and political sectors, he decided to jump back into the fight. John talked to David about his childhood on the Northwest side of Chicago in a close knit family, how anti-Vietnam activism led to his involvement in politics, why he worries more about America today than he did in the 1960s, and his leadership role on environmental protection and climate during the Biden presidency.
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At 15, musician John Legend wrote an essay proclaiming he would one day become a famous singer and use his platform to advance civil rights. His words ended up being particularly prescient; he has since spent his life pursuing dual paths of artistry and social justice. For the 500th episode of The Axe Files, John talks with David about his musical roots in the church, his consulting gig at Boston Consulting Group while waiting for his big break, his focus on fighting for criminal justice reform, his disgust over the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and navigating the intersection of celebrity and political activism.
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Former Congressman and Democratic Presidential candidate John Delaney joins the show to talk about his journey from a blue collar family to the founder of two publicly traded companies, his candidacy, and the issues facing the country.
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John Bouman, president of the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law, joins David to discuss fighting poverty through the court system, the prospect of welfare reform under President Trump, the Affordable Care Act, and more.
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John Dickerson, host of "Face the Nation," sits down with David at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia to talk about the genesis of the Trump campaign, the death of real news, his new book, and more.
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John Brennan, the outgoing CIA Director, talks with David Axelrod about the consequences that could arise from devaluing the intelligence community, the Russian hack into the Democratic National Committee's computers, the many geopolitical challenges in the Middle East, and much more.
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John Farrell, award-winning presidential historian and journalist, joins David to chat about why local newspapers now struggle for survival, his work on the Boston Globe's famous 'Spotlight' team, and why he thinks our current political climate is a product of the Nixon era.
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John Heilemann, co-managing editor of Bloomberg Politics and best-selling author of Game Change, talks with David about Trump's electoral end game, his own short but momentous stint as a political aide, and why his personality traits were ultimately better suited to journalism.
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John Heilemann is a journalist, author, television commentator, editor-in-chief of The Recount, and host of Showtime's The Circus. He joins David fresh from a swing through Iowa to share his assessment of the leading Democratic candidates, what he thinks matters most to voters in Iowa, why he believes Trump is politically underestimated, and whether or not impeachment will impact Trump in 2020.
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Tim Duy reports that r-star, which rose to prominence over the past few years, is experiencing a Caesar-like betrayal at the Fed:


The Federal Reserve's "r-star" has gone full supernova. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, its key proponent, made clear in a speech late Friday that the neutral interest rate is no longer a guiding star for monetary policy. This means a federal funds rate in the range of what is considered neutral has no special significance as far as policy is concerned... 



Williams's attachment to r-star cannot be overstated. At a professional level, it has been a key element of his research agenda. As recently as May he said that for "the moment, r-star continues to shine brightly, guiding monetary policy, but hold steady, low on the horizon." The moment quickly passed. Last week, he tossed aside the metric, saying that it has "gotten too much attention in commentary about Fed policy." A remarkable shift after just two 25-basis-point rate increases since his May comments... 



Williams' speech marks the end of a transition in policy away from explicit forward guidance. It began this past August with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech in which he noted the uncertainty surrounding estimates of key variables like the neutral interest rate. Fed Governor Lael Brainard pushed this point further in a subsequent speech, adding further uncertainty by differentiating between short- and long-run neutral. It continued in the September Federal Open Market Committee statement with the removal the description of policy as "accommodative." And it ends with the primary proponent of the r-star concept — Williams — throwing it into the trash bin of crisis-era policy artifacts.


One is tempted to say "It was good knowing you r-star". However, r-star will still be around in all the models used by the FOMC and Fed staff. Just look at, for example, the policy rules on the Board of Governor's website or in its annual report. The reported change, as I see it, is more a move toward less explicit reliance on it. Implicitly, r-star will still be important to an FOMC that relies on the Phillips curve thinking in making its decisions. 



Still, these developments do indicate there is some movement towards looking at other indicators as I noted in recent post. There I suggested one useful metric the FOMC could add to its lists of monetary policy indicators is the gap between a stable benchmark growth path for nominal GDP and its actual value. I outlined in this note several ways to create this metric and note that it is in the spirit of a NGDP level target without actually adopting one. 



There are many reasons for the Fed to start following the NGDP gap. The most practical one is its ability to help the FOMC avoid falling for the inflation head fakes created by supply shocks. Here is hoping that out of the ashes of r-star's apparent demise arises an increased desire by the FOMC to pay attention to the NGDP gap.