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This book helps and promotes the use of machine learning tools and techniques in econometrics and explains how machine learning can enhance and expand the econometrics toolbox in theory and in practice. Throughout the volume, the authors raise and answer six questions: 1) What are the similarities between existing econometric and machine learning techniques? 2) To what extent can machine learning techniques assist econometric investigation? Specifically, how robust or stable is the prediction from machine learning algorithms given the ever-changing nature of human behavior? 3) Can machine learning techniques assist in testing statistical hypotheses and identifying causal relationships in big data? 4) How can existing econometric techniques be extended by incorporating machine learning concepts? 5) How can new econometric tools and approaches be elaborated on based on machine learning techniques? 6) Is it possible to develop machine learning techniques further and make them even more readily applicable in econometrics? As the data structures in economic and financial data become more complex and models become more sophisticated, the book takes a multidisciplinary approach in developing both disciplines of machine learning and econometrics in conjunction, rather than in isolation. This volume is a must-read for scholars, researchers, students, policy-makers, and practitioners, who are using econometrics in theory or in practice. .

This book helps and promotes the use of machine learning tools and techniques in econometrics and explains how machine learning can enhance and expand the econometrics toolbox in theory and in practice. Throughout the volume, the authors raise and answer six questions: 1) What are the similarities between existing econometric and machine learning techniques? 2) To what extent can machine learning techniques assist econometric investigation? Specifically, how robust or stable is the prediction from machine learning algorithms given the ever-changing nature of human behavior? 3) Can machine learning techniques assist in testing statistical hypotheses and identifying causal relationships in 'big data? 4) How can existing econometric techniques be extended by incorporating machine learning concepts? 5) How can new econometric tools and approaches be elaborated on based on machine learning techniques? 6) Is it possible to develop machine learning techniques further and make them even more readily applicable in econometrics? As the data structures in economic and financial data become more complex and models become more sophisticated, the book takes a multidisciplinary approach in developing both disciplines of machine learning and econometrics in conjunction, rather than in isolation. This volume is a must-read for scholars, researchers, students, policy-makers, and practitioners, who are using econometrics in theory or in practice

Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) impact many aspects of human life, from recommending a significant other to assist the search for extraterrestrial life. The area develops rapidly and exiting unexplored design spaces are constantly laid bare. The focus in this work is one of these areas; ML systems where decisions concerning ML model training, usage and selection of target domain lay in the hands of domain experts. This work is then on ML systems that function as a tool that augments and/or enhance human capabilities. The approach presented is denoted Human In Command ML (HIC-ML) systems. To enquire into this research domain design experiments of varying fidelity were used. Two of these experiments focus on augmenting human capabilities and targets the domains commuting and sorting batteries. One experiment focuses on enhancing human capabilities by identifying similar hand-painted plates. The experiments are used as illustrative examples to explore settings where domain experts potentially can: independently train an ML model and in an iterative fashion, interact with it and interpret and understand its decisions. HIC-ML should be seen as a governance principle that focuses on adding value and meaning to users. In this work, concrete application areas are presented and discussed. To open up for designing ML-based products for the area an abstract model for HIC-ML is constructed and design guidelines are proposed. In addition, terminology and abstractions useful when designing for explicability are presented by imposing structure and rigidity derived from scientific explanations. Together, this opens up for a contextual shift in ML and makes new application areas probable, areas that naturally couples the usage of AI technology to human virtues and potentially, as a consequence, can result in a democratisation of the usage and knowledge concerning this powerful technology.

AbstractA significant set of epistemic and political transformations are taking place as states and societies begin to understand themselves and their problems through the paradigm of deep neural network algorithms. A machine learning political order does not merely change the political technologies of governance, but is itself a reordering of politics, of what the political can be. When algorithmic systems reduce the pluridimensionality of politics to the output of a model, they simultaneously foreclose the potential for other political claims to be made and alternative political projects to be built. More than this foreclosure, a machine learning political order actively profits and learns from the fracturing of communities and the destabilising of democratic rights. The transformation from rules-based algorithms to deep learning models has paralleled the undoing of rules-based social and international orders – from the use of machine learning in the campaigns of the UK EU referendum, to the trialling of algorithmic immigration and welfare systems, and the use of deep learning in the COVID-19 pandemic – with political problems becoming reconfigured as machine learning problems. Machine learning political orders decouple their attributes, features and clusters from underlying social values, no longer tethered to notions of good governance or a good society, but searching instead for the optimal function of abstract representations of data.

Introduction -- Secure Cooperative Learning in Early Years -- Outsourced Computation for Learning -- Secure Distributed Learning -- Learning with Differential Privacy -- Applications - Privacy-Preserving Image Processing -- Threats in Open Environment -- Conclusion.

Machine learning is a field at the intersection of statistics and computer science that uses algorithms to extract information and knowledge from data. Its applications increasingly find their way into economics, political science, and sociology. We offer a brief introduction to this vast toolbox and illustrate its current uses in the social sciences, including distilling measures from new data sources, such as text and images; characterizing population heterogeneity; improving causal inference; and offering predictions to aid policy decisions and theory development. We argue that, in addition to serving similar purposes in sociology, machine learning tools can speak to long-standing questions on the limitations of the linear modeling framework, the criteria for evaluating empirical findings, transparency around the context of discovery, and the epistemological core of the discipline.

Recent revelations concerning data firm Cambridge Analytica's illegitimate use of the data of millions of Facebook users highlights the ethical and, relatedly, legal issues arising from the use of machine learning techniques. Cambridge Analytica is, or was – the revelations brought about its demise - a firm that used machine learning processes to try to influence elections in the US and elsewhere by, for instance, targeting 'vulnerable' voters in marginal seats with political advertising. Of course, there is nothing new about political candidates and parties employing firms to engage in political advertising on their behalf, but if a data firm has access to the personal information of millions of voters, and is skilled in the use of machine learning techniques, then it can develop detailed, fine-grained voter profiles that enable political actors to reach a whole new level of manipulative influence over voters. My focus in this paper is not with the highly publicised ethical and legal issues arising from Cambridge Analytic's activities but rather with some important ethical issues arising from the use of machine learning techniques that have not received the attention and analysis that they deserve. I focus on three areas in which machine learning techniques are used or, it is claimed, should be used, and which give rise to problems at the interface of law and ethics (or law and morality, I use the terms "ethics" and "morality" interchangeably). The three areas are profiling and predictive policing (Saunders et al. 2016), legal adjudication (Zeleznikow, 2017), and machines' compliance with legally enshrined moral principles (Arkin 2010). I note that here, as elsewhere, new and emerging technologies are developing rapidly making it difficult to predict what might or might not be able to be achieved in the future. For this reason, I have adopted the conservative stance of restricting my ethical analysis to existing machine learning techniques and applications rather than those that are the object of speculation or even informed extrapolation (Mittelstadt et al. 2015). This has the consequence that what I might regard as a limitation of machine learning techniques, e.g. in respect of predicting novel outcomes or of accommodating moral principles, might be thought by others to be merely a limitation of currently available techniques. After all, has not the history of AI recently shown the naysayers to have been proved wrong? Certainly, AI has seen some impressive results, including the construction of computers that can defeat human experts in complex games, such as chess and Go (Silver et al. 2017), and others that can do a better job than human medical experts at identifying the malignancy of moles and the like (Esteva et al. 2017). However, since by definition future machine learning techniques and applications are not yet with us the general claim that current limitations will be overcome cannot at this time be confirmed or disconfirmed on the basis of empirical evidence.

Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today ML algorithms accomplish tasks that until recently only expert humans could perform. As it relates to finance, this is the most exciting time to adopt a disruptive technology that will transform how everyone invests for generations. Readers will learn how to structure Big data in a way that is amenable to ML algorithms; how to conduct research with ML algorithms on that data; how to use supercomputing methods; how to backtest your discoveries while avoiding false positives. The book addresses real-life problems faced by practitioners on a daily basis, and explains scientifically sound solutions using math, supported by code and examples. Readers become active users who can test the proposed solutions in their particular setting. Written by a recognized expert and portfolio manager, this book will equip investment professionals with the groundbreaking tools needed to succeed in modern finance.

Nowadays, we are surrounded by electric appliances. Either at home by the washing machine, kettle, or oven, or work by the computer, cellphone, or printer. Such devices help us daily, but their popularization increased the energy consumption to concerning values. In an attempt to reduce energy consumption, governments started enforcing policies regarding energy education to teach homeowners how to reduce energy wastage on the demand side. One of those policies was the deployment of smart meters, which allow the consumer to know how much energy is being consumed at any given time through a display on the household energy meter. Even though this measure was well received, the studies show that the best results in energy conservation are obtained through real-time appliance level feedback. To get such feedback, one can either measure every outlet in a household, which is unviable for a broad deployment solution, or disaggregate the energy recorded by the smart meter. NILM or Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring is the name we give to the second option where we use the aggregated readings of a household to find the energy consumed by each appliance. There were many proposals to solve NILM ranging from HMMs to GSP, where deep learning models showed remarkable results, obtaining state-of-the-art results. With the intent to create a complete NILM solution, Withus partnered with the University of Aveiro and proposed this dissertation. The initial objective was to develop a machine learning model to solve NILM. Still, during the background analysis, we found the need to create a new dataset which led to the expansion of the initial proposal to include the dataset preprocessing and conversion. Regarding NILM, we proposed three new deep learning models: a convolutional neural network with residual blocks, a recurrent neural network, and a multilayer perceptron that uses discrete wavelet transforms as features. These models went through multiple iterations, being evaluated first in the simpler ON/OFF classification task and later ...

This paper highlights how machine learning can help explain terrorism. We note that even though machine learning has a reputation for black box prediction, in fact, it can provide deeply nuanced explanations of terrorism. Moreover, machine learning is not sensitive to the sometimes heroic statistical assumptions necessary when parametric econometrics is applied to the study of terrorism. This increases the reliability of explanations while adding contextual nuance that captures the flavor of individualized case analysis. Nevertheless, this approach also gives us a sense of the replicability of results. We, therefore, suggest that it further expands the role of science in terrorism research.

AbstractThis paper investigates how unsupervised machine learning methods might make hermeneutic interpretive text analysis more objective in the social sciences. Through a close examination of the uses of topic modeling—a popular unsupervised approach in the social sciences—it argues that the primary way in which unsupervised learning supports interpretation is by allowing interpreters to discover unanticipated information in larger and more diverse corpora and by improving the transparency of the interpretive process. This view highlights that unsupervised modeling does not eliminate the researchers' judgments from the process of producing evidence for social scientific theories. The paper shows this by distinguishing between two prevalent attitudes toward topic modeling, i.e., topic realism and topic instrumentalism. Under neither can modeling provide social scientific evidence without the researchers' interpretive engagement with the original text materials. Thus the unsupervised text analysis cannot improve the objectivity of interpretation by alleviating the problem of underdetermination in interpretive debate. The paper argues that the sense in which unsupervised methods can improve objectivity is by providing researchers with the resources to justify to others that their interpretations are correct. This kind of objectivity seeks to reduce suspicions in collective debate that interpretations are the products of arbitrary processes influenced by the researchers' idiosyncratic decisions or starting points. The paper discusses this view in relation to alternative approaches to formalizing interpretation and identifies several limitations on what unsupervised learning can be expected to achieve in terms of supporting interpretive work.

This dissertation is comprised of three essays that apply machine learning and high-dimensional statistics to causal inference. The first essay proposes a parametric alternative to the synthetic control method (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010) that relies on a Lasso-type first-step. We show that the resulting estimator is doubly robust, asymptotically Gaussian and ``immunized'' against first-step selection mistakes. The second essay studies a penalized version of the synthetic control method especially useful in the presence of micro-economic data. The penalization parameter trades off pairwise matching discrepancies with respect to the characteristics of each unit in the synthetic control against matching discrepancies with respect to the characteristics of the synthetic control unit as a whole. We study the properties of the resulting estimator, propose data-driven choices of the penalization parameter and discuss randomization-based inference procedures. The last essay applies the Generic Machine Learning framework (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) to study heterogeneity of the treatment in a randomized experiment designed to compare public and private provision of job counselling. From a methodological perspective, we discuss the extension of the Generic Machine Learning framework to experiments with imperfect compliance. ; Cette thèse regroupe trois travaux d'économétrie liés par l'application du machine learning et de la statistique en grande dimension à l'évaluation de politiques publiques. La première partie propose une alternative paramétrique au contrôle synthétique (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010) sous la forme d'un estimateur reposant sur une première étape de type Lasso, dont on montre qu'il est doublement robuste, asymptotiquement Normal et ``immunisé'' contre les erreurs de première étape. La seconde partie étudie une version pénalisée du contrôle synthétique en présence de données de nature micro-économique. La pénalisation permet d'obtenir une unité synthétique qui ...