Do long-memory models have long memory?
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 16, Heft 1, S. 121-124
ISSN: 0169-2070
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 16, Heft 1, S. 121-124
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Sociolohija: teorija, metody, marketynh, Heft 3, S. 65-90
ISSN: 2663-5143
Regarding the Soviet past, idea of the dichotomous nature of Ukrainian historical memory is widespread both in society and in academia. According to it, two models of memory are widespread in Ukrainian society — the Ukrainian national memory and the Soviet one as the opposed to it. The article shows that this view is simplified. The Ukrainian national and Soviet models of memory are not a dichotomy but a continuum. Based on the analysis of sociological surveys, a number of versions have been identified within each of the memory models. In particular, within the Ukrainian national model there are such versions as: "resistance", "realitistic", "post-Soviet". The difference between them lies in the attitude towards the Soviet past. In the "resistance" version the Soviet past is completely rejected, in the "realitistic" version it is perceived as an integral part of the Ukrainian past, and in the "post-Soviet" version there is a mechanistic combination of Soviet and Ukrainian national narratives, with an emphasis on the Ukrainian component. Within the Soviet model there are such versions as: "Ukrainian", "fraternal peoples", and "reunification". The criterion for distinguishing them is the attitude to the Ukrainian historical narrative. In the case of the "Ukrainian" version, there is a combination of Soviet and Ukrainian narratives, but with an emphasis on the Soviet component. In the "fraternal peoples'" version the Ukrainian identity is seen as equal to the Russian one and as the "reunification". And in the "reunification" version Ukrainian identity is seen as a part of supranational identity. Also four types of historical memory are distinguished by the criterion of combining models within individual consciousness. Two of them are "pure" — Ukrainian national and Soviet-imperial, and two are "mixed" — ambivalent, where two models are combined, and indefinite, where none of the memory models is important to individuals. The article also analyzes the regional prevalence of both memory models and types.
In: Human factors: the journal of the Human Factors Society, Band 26, Heft 6, S. 631-639
ISSN: 1547-8181
Previous models of visual search have hypothesized either a random search or a repeated systematic search strategy. Although both models reproduce well the cumulative search time distribution, F(t), neither fully accords with eye movement data. A new model is proposed in which search is intended to be systematic but suffers from imperfect memory. Systematic search is then a special case in which the memory is perfect, and random search a special case in which the memory is totally lacking. The model was derived for single and multiple occurrences of a single fault (or target) type. Where the model could be proved to be insoluble, a simulation model was used. Simulation results were compared with the previous calculations of Morawski, Drury, and Karwan (1980) and were shown to give identical results for pure random and pure systematic search. As the parameters of the memory model were varied, a family of curves between these extremes was produced.
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 13, Heft 1, S. 117-126
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: The Journal of social psychology, Band 108, Heft 1, S. 75-81
ISSN: 1940-1183
In: Political analysis: PA ; the official journal of the Society for Political Methodology and the Political Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association, Band 28, Heft 3, S. 395-411
ISSN: 1476-4989
Political scientists often wish to classify documents based on their content to measure variables, such as the ideology of political speeches or whether documents describe a Militarized Interstate Dispute. Simple classifiers often serve well in these tasks. However, if words occurring early in a document alter the meaning of words occurring later in the document, using a more complicated model that can incorporate these time-dependent relationships can increase classification accuracy. Long short-term memory (LSTM) models are a type of neural network model designed to work with data that contains time dependencies. We investigate the conditions under which these models are useful for political science text classification tasks with applications to Chinese social media posts as well as US newspaper articles. We also provide guidance for the use of LSTM models.
In: International journal of academic research in business and social sciences: IJ-ARBSS, Band 4, Heft 7
ISSN: 2222-6990
In: The IUP Journal of Brand Management, Vol. XV, No. 2, June 2018, pp. 46-60
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 18, Heft 2, S. 215-226
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 10947
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In: Applied Economics, Band 39, Heft 20, S. 2547-2552
This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s has no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.
In: Journal of international trade & economic development: an international and comparative review, Band 27, Heft 6, S. 638-654
ISSN: 1469-9559
In: Scientific African, Band 24, S. e02158
ISSN: 2468-2276
In: Environmental science and pollution research: ESPR, Band 28, Heft 45, S. 64818-64829
ISSN: 1614-7499
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 7984
SSRN