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After a 10-year period of decline, world military expenditure is increasing once again: by 2004 it was close to its peak at the height of the Cold War. What does this increase entail and how can it be interpreted? Is it an indication of a detioratiing security environment or of increasing security? Is spending on the military an effective way of providing security in the current security environment? In responding to these important questions, a good starting point is to analyse the trends and patterns in military spending. Military expenditure is a rough measure of the level of government financial allocations for military purposes. As such, it can measure the priority given to military means of achieving security - assessed according to government perceptions - or of achieving some other types of national objectives, as formulated in national security doctrines. This paper considers trends in the global military spending data, discusses the limitations of the data, and suggests what sort of information is needed to improve analysis of the new security environment. Text in both English and French. Parallel title: Les depenses militaires.

Total global military expenditure in 2009 is estimated to have been $1531 billion. This represents an increase of 6 per cent in real terms compared to 2008, and of 49 per cent since 2000. Military expenditure comprised approximately 2.7 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009. All regions and subregions saw an increase in 2009, except the Middle East. The global economic crisis had little impact on world military spending in 2009, as most major economies boosted public spending to counteract the recession, postponing deficit reduction. While military expenditure was not a major feature of economic stimulus packages, it was not generally cut either. Nine of the top 10 spenders increased military spending in 2009. However, some smaller economies less able to sustain large deficits did cut spending. Natural resource revenues appear to be a significant driver of military expenditure in many developing countries, with rapidly rising revenues from oil and other commodities in recent years, due to increases in both price and production. This may lead to increased military spending as a means of protecting resources from internal or external threats, while resource revenues are often a source of funding for arms purchases. The drop in commodity prices in 2009 has slowed this trend in some cases. The conflict in Afghanistan is proving increasingly costly to many of the countries with a substantial troop presence there and has also generated debates as to the focus of military spending, between equipment of use in current conflicts and major weapon platforms designed for power projection. In the UK a combination of the Afghanistan conflict, high deficits and an overambitious equipment programme have sharpened this debate. US military spending is continuing to rise under the Obama Administration, partly due to the escalating conflict in Afghanistan. Spending is budgeted to rise further in 2010, and military spending is exempted from a general freeze on discretionary spending. The 2010 budget saw some refocusing of priorities, with cancellation of some major weapon systems and increased focus on information and communications technology, but no major strategic shift. Military spending patterns in Afghanistan and Iraq both reflect the demands of rebuilding a country's armed forces from scratch following external invasion and with continued requirement for substantial external funding. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure in 2004 is estimated to have been $975 billion at constant (2003) prices and exchange rates or $1,035 billion in current dollars. This is just 6% lower in real terms than at the 1987-88 peak of cold war world military spending. As a global average, 2004 world military expenditure corresponds to $162 per capita and 2.6% of world GDP. However, there is a wide variation between regions and countries in the scale and economic burden of military spending. The average annual rate of increase in world military expenditure over the 10-year period 1995-2004 was 2.4% in real terms. This average encompasses two distinct trends: first, the post-cold war reduction in military spending which culminated around 1998; second, an increasing trend since 1998, accelerating to an annual average increase of around 6% in real terms over the three-year period 2002-2004. The major determinant of the world trend in military expenditure is the change in the USA, which makes up 47% of the world total. US military expenditure has increased rapidly during the period 2002-2004 as a result of massive budgetary allocations for the 'global war on terrorism', primarily for military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. These have been funded through supplementary appropriations on top of the regular budget. The supplementary appropriations for this purpose allocated to the Department of Defense for financial years 2003-2005 amounted to approximately $238 billion and exceeded the combined military spending of Africa, Latin America, Asia (except Japan but including China) and the Middle East in 2004 ($193 billion in current dollars), that is, of the entire developing world. Thus, while regular military spending has also increased in the USA as well as in several other countries and regions, the main explanation for the current level of and trend in world military spending is the spending on military operations abroad by the USA, and to a lesser extent by its coalition partners. In 2004 there was a growing debate related to the sustainability of the current military efforts of the USA. Questions were raised about the contribution of military expenditure to the growing fiscal deficit and its future impact on economic growth. A related concern is whether military expenditure will crowd out non-military government expenditure. The debate has been exacerbated by uncertainties over future trends in expenditure for military operations in Iraq. There is a recognition that security is a prerequisite for sustainable development, which has led to a debate concerning the different ways in which donors should support security sector reform. Some countries fear that extending the definition of official development assistance to cover security-related issues may diminish overall support for social and economic aid, and could even result in cold war-style assistance with the strategic interests of donors dictating the direction of their aid policy. Two ongoing support programs for security activities in crisis-prone developing countries -- US assistance to Colombia and British support for the security sector in Sierra Leone -- are examples of emerging patterns of security assistance provided in the context of development assistance but which indirectly enhance security at home. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure in 2006 is estimated to have reached $1,204 billion in current dollars. This represents a 3.5% increase in real terms since 2005 and a 37% increase over the 10-year period since 1997. Average spending per capita increased from $173 in 2005 to $184. World military expenditure is extremely unevenly distributed. In 2006 the 15 countries with the highest spending accounted for 83% of the world total. The large increase in the USA's military spending is to a great extent due to the costly military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Most of the increase resulted from supplementary allocations in addition to the regular budget. Between September 2001 and June 2006, the US Government provided a total of $432 billion in annual and supplemental appropriations under the heading 'global war on terrorism'. This increase in US military spending has contributed to the rise in budget deficits, government debt and outlays on servicing these debts since 2001. Taking both immediate and long-term factors into account, the overall past and future costs until year 2016 to the USA for the war in Iraq have been estimated at $2,267 billion. In 2006 China's military expenditure continued to increase rapidly, for the first time surpassing that of Japan and hence making China the biggest military spender in Asia and the fourth biggest in the world. Amid intense discussions, Japan decided, for the fifth consecutive year, to reduce its military spending in 2006 and to focus its military budget on missile defence. In a comparison of government spending priorities between samples of countries in different per capita income groups, the ratio of military spending to social spending was found to be highest in those countries with the lowest per capita incomes. However, between 1999 and 2003, the share of military expenditure in GDP stayed at a constant level in the high- and middle-income country sample and decreased somewhat in the low-income sample. At the same time social spending as a share of GDP increased in the high- and low-income groups and remained relatively stable in middle-income countries. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure increased by about 2% in real terms in 2001 to $839 billion (in current prices) according to adopted budgets. Since 1998, when it reached its lowest point since the end of the Cold War, it has increased by 7%. When the actual expenditure figures for 2001 become available, the increase is likely to be greater because of additional expenditure generated by the 11 September terrorist attacks on the USA & the ensuing 'war on terrorism.' Five countries accounted for more than half of world military spending in 2001: the USA (36%), Russia (6%), & France, Japan, & the UK (5% each). The high-income countries have the highest per capita spending, while the countries where military spending imposes the heaviest economic burden are located in the Middle East & Africa. 8 Tables, 5 Appendixes. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure in 2005 is estimated to have reached $1001 billion at constant (2003) prices and exchange rates, or $1118 billion in current dollars. This corresponds to 2.5% of world GDP or an average spending of $173 per capita. World military expenditure in 2005 presents a real terms increase of 3.4% since 2004, and of 34% over the 10-year period 1996-2005. The USA, responsible for about 80% of the increase in 2005, is the principal determinant of the current world trend, and its military expenditure now accounts for almost half of the world total. The process of concentration of military expenditure continued in 2005 with a decreasing number of countries responsible for a growing proportion of spending: the 15 countries with the highest spending now account for 84% of the total. The USA is responsible for 48% of the world total, distantly followed by the UK, France, Japan and China with 4-5% each. The rapid increase in the USA's military spending is to a large extent attributable to the ongoing costly military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, in 2005 the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita also played an important role. Most of the increase in US military spending resulted from supplementary allocations administered outside the regular budget, moving control of funding decisions from the Congress to the President. A factor that has aided the upward trend in military expenditure is the high and rising world market prices of minerals and fossil fuels. This is reflected especially in Algeria, Azerbaijan, Russia and Saudi Arabia, where increased proceeds from oil and gas exploitation have boosted government revenues and freed up funds for military spending. The boost in the military expenditure of Chile and Peru is directly resource-driven, because their military spending is linked by law to profits from the exploitation of key natural resources. China and India, the world's two emerging economic powers, are demonstrating a sustained increase in their military expenditure and contribute to the growth in world military spending. In absolute terms their current spending is only a fraction of the USA's. Their increases are largely commensurate with their economic growth. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure is estimated to have been $1,339 billion in 2007 -- a real-terms increase of 6% over 2006 and of 45% since 1998. This corresponded to 2.5% of world gross domestic product (GDP) and $202 for each person in the world. The subregion with the highest increase in military expenditure over the 10-year period 1998-2007 was Eastern Europe, at 162%. It was also the region with the highest increase in 2007, at 15%. Russia, with a 13% increase in 2007, accounted for 86% of this regional increase. Other subregions with 10-year growth rates exceeding 50% are North America (65%), the Middle East (62%), South Asia (57%), Africa and East Asia (both 51%). The subregions with the lowest growth in military spending over the past 10 years were Western Europe (6%) and Central America (14%). The USA's military spending accounted for 45% of the world total in 2007, followed by the UK, China, France and Japan, with 4-5% each. Since 2001 US military expenditure has increased by 59% in real terms, principally because of massive spending on military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, but also because of increases in the 'base' defence budget. By 2007, US spending was higher than at any time since World War II. However, because of the growth of the US economy and of total US Government spending, the economic and financial burden of military spending (i.e. its share of GDP and of total US Government outlays) is lower now than during previous peak spending years in the post- World War II period. China has increased its military spending threefold in real terms during the past decade. However, due to its rapid economic growth, the economic burden of military spending is still moderate, at 2.1% of GDP. Military spending is rising rapidly in the South Caucasus -- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia -- largely due to the region's three 'frozen' conflicts and the involvement of external actors. The rises have been made possible by economic upswings largely based on oil and gas revenues. The number of countries that increased their military spending in 2007 was higher than in recent years. The factors driving increases in world military spending include countries' foreign policy objectives, real or perceived threats, armed conflict and policies to contribute to multilateral peacekeeping operations, combined with the availability of economic resources. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure did not increase in 2011, for the first time since 1998. The world total for 2011 is estimated to have been $1738 billion, representing 2.5 per cent of global gross domestic product or $249 for each person. Compared with the total in 2010, military spending remained virtually unchanged in real terms. However, it is still too early to say whether this means that world military expenditure has finally peaked. The main cause of the halt in military spending growth was the economic policies adopted in most Western countries in the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2008. These policies prioritized the swift reduction of budget deficits that increased sharply following the crisis. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure, which has been increasing since 1998, rose by 6% in real terms in 2002 to $794 billion (in current prices), 2.5% of world GDP. This sharp acceleration in the rate of increase is overwhelmingly due to large increases by the US, in response to the events of 11 September 2001. However, the war on terrorism has not provoked similar increases in most other countries, in particular in Western Europe, where spending remained flat. Some other major spenders continued to increase military expenditure, including China & Russia, to promote force modernization, & India because of regional security factors. 8 Tables, 3 Appendixes. Adapted from the source document.

World military expenditure in 2012 is estimated to have been $1756 billion, representing 2.5 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) or $249 for each person in the world. The total is about 0.4 per cent lower in real terms than in 2011, the first fall since 1998. Nonetheless, the total is higher than in any year between the end of World War II and 2010. The distribution of global spending in 2012 shows what may be the beginnings of a shift from the West to other parts of the world, in particular Eastern Europe and the developing world. In Western and Central Europe, austerity measures continued to reduce military spending. In Asia and Oceania, while military spending still increased in 2012, it did so at a slower pace, partly as a result of weaker economic growth in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. In Central and South Asia, North America, Oceania, and Western and Central Europe, increases in the period 2003-2009 were followed by decreases in 2009-12; in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, and Latin America, there was a major slowdown in the growth rate, with smaller slowdowns in Eastern Europe and South East Asia. In contrast, the rate of growth accelerated in the Middle East and North Africa. The overall effect on the world total was a lowering in growth in 2010-11, now followed by the fall in 2012. Adapted from the source document.

While the United States has led the global rise in military spending over the past decade, this trend has been followed by many emerging (or re-emerging) regional powers such as China, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa and Turkey. These countries all have rapidly growing economies and key economic and political roles in their respective regions and, in some cases, globally. All six are also developing as military powers, engaging in significant military modernization programmes. Apart from Turkey, all have been increasing military spending, often very rapidly. The motives for these countries' military modernization and accompanying increases in military spending vary. In all cases, economic growth is a key enabler; in no case has military spending grown faster than gross domestic product (GDP) since 2001. Economic growth can also be a direct driver, as troops' salaries share in general increases in salaries. In some of these six cases, current conflict is a driver of military spending. For India, the perennial conflict with Pakistan and in Kashmir has been joined by the growing Naxalite rebellion. In Turkey, in contrast, the reduction in the intensity of the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is a factor behind falling military spending. Regional disputes and rivalries also create a desire not to lag behind other countries, even where relations are currently peaceful. For China, the overwhelming US military dominance in the region is a concern, especially in relation to potential conflict over Taiwan. In turn, India is concerned by China's growing military might, given the two countries' border disputes and rivalry for influence in the Indian Ocean. Russia meanwhile views an expanding NATO as a potential, if not a current, threat. Even in the absence of regional rivalries, a perception of military power as a source of status may be a motivating factor, as in the cases of Brazil, South Africa and, increasingly, Turkey. High military spending can be controversial in the face of more pressing social needs. In Brazil, this tension has recently led to changes in budget priorities regarding military spending. In South Africa, the recent major arms procurement package has been severely criticized for diverting funds from poverty and development goals, as well as for corruption. In India, however, civil society criticism of military spending is countered by strong popular concern over Pakistan. Adapted from the source document.

International audience ; One problem in the negotiation and verification of any possible international agreement on the reduction of military expenditure is the difficulty of determining common definitions and methods of evaluation and comparison. Various alternative methods of comparison are discussed and the work of a United Nations group dealing with these matters, including particularly the purchasing power parity method, is reviewed. It is concluded, that, given political will and reasonable availability of adequate and relevant information, the construction of useful instruments for international and chronological comparisons of military expenditure is feasible. ; Un des problèmes de la négociation et de la vérification d'un éventuel accord international sur la réduction des dépenses militaires est la difficulté de déterminer des définitions et des méthodes d'évaluation et de comparaison communes. Diverses méthodes alternatives de comparaison sont examinées et les travaux d'un groupe des Nations unies chargé de ces questions, notamment la méthode de la parité du pouvoir d'achat, sont passés en revue. Il est conclu que, sous réserve d'une volonté politique et d'une disponibilité raisonnable d'informations adéquates et pertinentes, la construction d'instruments utiles pour les comparaisons internationales et chronologiques des dépenses militaires est possible.