Suchergebnisse

Recent pension reforms in Europe have implemented a link between retirement age and life expectancy. The accurate forecast of life tables and life expectancy is hence paramount for governmental policy and financial institutions. We developed a multi-population mortality model which includes a cause-specific environment using Archimedean copulae to model dependence between various groups of causes of death. For this, Dutch data on cause-of-death mortality and cause-specific mortality data from 14 comparable European countries were used. We find that the inclusion of a common factor to a cause-specific mortality context increases the robustness of the forecast and we underline that cause-specific mortality forecasts foresee a more pessimistic mortality future than general mortality models. Overall, we find that this non-trivial extension is robust to the copula specification for commonly chosen dependence parameters. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

ISBN 978-2-7332-4025-2 ; The four basic demographic events, birth, marriage, migration and death, it is the latter that caught the attention of the first science of the population. In fact, the first scientific work done in demography was published January 25, 1662 and was entitled Natural and Political Observations, listed in the following index and mortality made on slips by John Graunt (1620-1673). It was based on the simple but brilliant idea to study mortality bulletins (bills of mortality) the parishes of London. This approach retains three and a half centuries later, its relevance. Before presenting some results of contemporary studies of mortality, it is important to clarify the specificity of the mortality study. ; Des quatre événements démographiques élémentaires, la naissance, le mariage, la migration et le décès, c'est ce dernier qui a retenu le premier l'attention de la science de la population. En effet, le premier travail scientifique réalisé en démographie fut publié le 25 janvier 1662 et s'intitulait Observations Naturelles et Politiques, répertoriées dans l'index ci-après et faites sur les Bulletins de Mortalité par John Graunt (1620-1673). Il partait de l'idée simple et géniale d'étudier les bulletins de mortalité (bills of mortality) des paroisses de Londres. Une telle démarche conserve, trois siècles et demi après, toute sa pertinence. Avant de présenter quelques résultats des études contemporaines sur la mortalité, il importe de préciser la spécificité de l'étude de la mortalité.

ISBN 978-2-7332-4025-2 ; The four basic demographic events, birth, marriage, migration and death, it is the latter that caught the attention of the first science of the population. In fact, the first scientific work done in demography was published January 25, 1662 and was entitled Natural and Political Observations, listed in the following index and mortality made on slips by John Graunt (1620-1673). It was based on the simple but brilliant idea to study mortality bulletins (bills of mortality) the parishes of London. This approach retains three and a half centuries later, its relevance. Before presenting some results of contemporary studies of mortality, it is important to clarify the specificity of the mortality study. ; Des quatre événements démographiques élémentaires, la naissance, le mariage, la migration et le décès, c'est ce dernier qui a retenu le premier l'attention de la science de la population. En effet, le premier travail scientifique réalisé en démographie fut publié le 25 janvier 1662 et s'intitulait Observations Naturelles et Politiques, répertoriées dans l'index ci-après et faites sur les Bulletins de Mortalité par John Graunt (1620-1673). Il partait de l'idée simple et géniale d'étudier les bulletins de mortalité (bills of mortality) des paroisses de Londres. Une telle démarche conserve, trois siècles et demi après, toute sa pertinence. Avant de présenter quelques résultats des études contemporaines sur la mortalité, il importe de préciser la spécificité de l'étude de la mortalité.

Mortality due to external causes was measured over the period 1985–2004 in three rural areas of Senegal—Bandafassi, Niakhar and Mlomp – whose populations have been under continuous demographic surveillance for many years. The standardized annual rate of deaths due to external causes is 31 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in Niakhar, 56 in Bandafassi and 102 in Mlomp. The causes of injury-related deaths generally reflect the rural living environment, with relatively few deaths due to road accidents (1.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in Niakhar, 3.0 in Bandafassi and 2.0 in Mlomp), but many deaths due to falls (8.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in Niakhar, 15.1 in Bandafassi and 23.3 in Mlomp). For certain causes, mortality varies considerably. Snake bites, for example, cause 0.1 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in Niakhar, 13.4 in Bandafassi and 3.0 in Mlomp. The differences between sites are linked in this case to the relative concentrations of wildlife, in turn linked to differences in the local environment and in population densities (144 inhabitants per sq.km in Niakhar versus 19 in Bandafassi and 114 in Mlomp). Although the study areas are still largely unaffected by causes of death associated with development, such as traffic accidents, mortality due to external causes is high.