Suchergebnisse

In this article, we aim at sharpening common understandings of the notion of political crisis to better explain the trajectories of authoritarian transformations during popular uprisings. We make three major claims. First, we propose a definition of crisis as brief moments of institutional fluidity and openness in which a process can take different directions. We delineate the crisis concept from the concept of critical junctures and outline how our approach contributes to the methodological debate on 'near misses'. Second, we indicate how the de-institutionalisation processes leading up to a crisis are to be analytically distinguished from within-crisis moments. We argue in favour of a discontinuity approach that takes into account the different temporalities of gradual lead-up processes and rapid within-crisis dynamics. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical and analytical reasoning with concrete cases from the authoritarian crises of the Arab uprisings, whilst suggesting that our argument can travel to other areas of research in which crisis narratives have gained prominence.

The present note is based on a publication by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), entitled "World agriculture: towards 2015/2030" (FAO 2002). The objective is to summarize the issues pointed out for FAO on the challenges to agriculture during the next year. The future of agriculture is dependent on the improvement of food security and sustainability (FAO 2002). In order to do this, it is necessary to analyze many contributory factors in assessing the prospects for progress towards improved food security and sustainability worldwide, according to the FAO study. One of the main challenges refers to a range of issues pertaining to the overall economic and international trading conditions, and those affecting rural poverty (FAO 2002). It affects the status and future of agricultural resources and technology. Of the many issues, FAO concluded that the development of local food production in the low-income countries with high dependence on agriculture for employment and income is the one factor that dominates all others in determining progress or failure in improving their food security. The FAO study also predicted that the uneven path of progress is, unfortunately, likely to extend well into this century. It indicates that in spite of some significant enhancements in food security and nutrition by the year 2015, mainly resulting from increased domestic production but also from additional growth in food imports, the World Food Summit target of halving the number of undernourished persons by no later than 2015 is far from being reached, and may not be accomplished even by 2030 (FAO 2002). However, according to the study, parts of South Asia may still be in a difficult position and much of sub-Saharan Africa will probably not be significantly better off and may possibly be even worse off than at present in the absence of concerted action by all concerned. Therefore, the world must brace itself for continuing interventions to cope with the consequences of local food crises and for action to permanently remove their root causes (FAO 2002). FAO emphasized that significant upgrading of the overall development performance of the lagging countries, with emphasis on hunger and poverty reduction, will free the world of the most pressing food insecurity problems (FAO 2002). A conclusion of the FAO study is that any progress towards this goal depends on many factors, not least among which the political will and mobilization of additional required resources; so that past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the process of overall national development, particularly where a large part of the population, depends on the sector for employment and income. On the issue of sustainability, FAO emphasized that there is an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of use of resources over the years to 2030 and concluded that pressure on resources, including those that are associated with degradation, will continue to build up albeit at a slower rate than in the past. The main pressures threatening sustainability are likely to be those emanating from rural poverty, as more and more people attempt to extract a living out of dwindling resources (FAO 2002). When these processes occur in an environment of fragile and limited resources and when the circumstances for introducing sustainable technologies and practices are not propitious, the risk grows that a vicious circle of poverty and resource degradation will set in, as FAO pointed out. Mr. Jacques Diouf, Director-General of FAO, concluded by reiterating the importance of developing sustainable local food production and of rural development in the low-income countries; most of them depend highly on agriculture for employment and income as an important and, often, the critical component of any strategy to improve their levels of food security and alleviate poverty (FAO 2002). In conclusion, it is for this reason that sustainable agricultural and rural development must be given enhanced priority in all strategic framework for FAO and others organizations for food production and agriculture security and sustainability.

The Financial Crisis accelerated a latent Fiscal Crisis that had been brewing in many Western countries. The paper outlines the causes of the Financial Crisis, and how this increased expenditure and reduced revenues for many Western governments. But these additional fiscal stresses merely advanced the day of reckoning when fiscal problems had to be faced Demographics (the Baby Boom effect) dictated that reforms would be required in taxation, health care and pensions to smooth the transition. Many governments had not prepared adequately, so that the added burden of the Financial Crisis provided a double impost on budgets. The paper compares Canada and Australia in this framework, showing that there are similarities and differences that are instructive. Both countries avoided the initial Crisis, but they may not be so fortunate in the near future.

I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with two transmission channels that can be shocked separately: international trade and finance. The model is the first to include a government and heterogeneous firms that can default independently of one another and has a novel endogenous cost of sovereign default. I calibrate the model to the average experiences of countries near to and far from the crisis areas. Using these calibrations, disturbances on the order of those observed during the late 2000s are separately applied to each channel to study transmission. The results suggest credit disruption as the primary contagion driver, rather than the trade channel. Given the substantial degree of financial contagion, I run a series of counterfactuals studying the efficacy of capital controls and find that they would be a useful tool for preventing similarly severe contagion in the future, so long as there is not capital immobility to the degree that the local sovereign can default without suffering capital flight.

A central question for policy makers concerned with helping the poor through a macro crisis is how to target scarcer resources at a time of greater need. Technical arguments suggest that finer targeting through tightening individual programs or reallocation resources towards more tightly targeted programs uses resources more efficiently for poverty reduction. These arguments survive even when the greater informational costs and the incentive effects of finer targeting are taken into account. But political economy arguments suggest that finer targeting will end up with fewer resources allocated to that program, and that looser targeting, because it knits together the interests of the poor and the near poor, may generate greater resources and hence be more effective for poverty reduction despite being 'leakier.' Overall the policy advice to tighten targeting and to avoid more loosely targeted programs during crises needs to be given with consideration caution. However, the advice to design transfer systems with greater flexibility, in the technical and the political economy senses, is strengthened by the arguments presented here. The case for external assistance to design flexible transfer systems ex ante and to relieve the painful tradeoffs in targeting during a crisis is also shown to be strong.

A worldwide financial crisis of enormous magnitude continues to unfold rapidly. Unlike other crises in recent decades, the current episode is rooted in industrial countries' financial systems and is affecting low-income and middle-income countries (MICs) alike. Defaults on securitized sub-prime mortgages as a real estate market bubble burst led to failures or near-failures of several large financial institutions and a collapse of inter-bank and commercial paper markets. A tightening of credit, combined with declining consumer confidence, has brought on worldwide recession with growing unemployment, and many fear that the downturn will be severe and protracted. At the same time, the rapidly multiplying signs of contraction are prompting strong responses, including fiscal stimulus packages and reductions in benchmark lending rates, on the part of several of the affected developed countries. The Bank Group is well placed to help mitigate the impact of the current crisis with financing and advisory services, and its clients are already requesting increased support. A rapid, high-quality response that combines financial and advisory support can do much to ease the inevitable ramifications of the crisis. Lessons from evaluations of previous Bank Group responses to past crises can help inform the response to the current crisis in order to increase its effectiveness.

This dissertation consists of four contributions that empirically analyze the political and social implications of financial and economic crises. The first two essays seek to broaden our understanding of the political after-effects of systemic banking crises and other macroeconomic downturns. The third essay analyzes the impact of financial crises on the distribution of income. Each of these three essays utilizes long-run cross-country data to study the relationships with historical perspective. The fourth essay takes a micro- level approach and has a special focus on household savings and inequality in the U.S. during the decades preceding the 2007-08 financial meltdown. The first essay provides new evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. The study is based on a new long-run dataset covering the near-universe of financial crises in 20 advanced economies and more than 800 general elections over the past 140 years. The key result is that policy un-certainty rises significantly after financial crises as government majorities shrink and polarization increas-es. Importantly, voters seem to be particularly attracted to the political rhetoric of the extreme right after a financial crisis. Similar political dynamics are not observable in normal recessions or after severe non-financial macroeconomic shocks. Building on the idea to group vote shares along ideological dimensions, the second essay extends the analysis and studies voting behavior in growth and recessionary conditions in more depth. The paper is first to relate historical data on ideology and electoral performance of nearly 650 political parties to the trajectory of real GDP per capita in a panel of 20 developed countries. The empirical exploration shows that right-of-center parties typically capitalize on economic downturns, while GDP growth is beneficial to the political left and far-left. This pattern appears to be remarkably constant across historical periods. Importantly, the results are robust to controlling for the ...

[Introduction]: This paper argues that one of the major reasons for the poor record on development is to do with poor macroeconomic management. The three liquidity crises faced in the 1990s, several near misses, and yet another impending crisis inmid 2002 are evidence of such mismanagement. This paper argues that a strong deficit bias in fiscal policy has seen public debt rise from zero at independence to 45 per cent by 1990 and 66 per cent by 1999—the most recent period for which published data is available. There is little hope of debt levels stabilising while the incentives driving this process remain. The high debt levels and the rising cost of servicing such debt has raised the frequency of fiscal crises, an issue likely to be of increasing concern to policymakers and international financial institutions who carry the bulk of the responsibility for rescuing the situation. Monetary policy, in contrast, has remained conservative and without an inflation bias. This contrast lends support to the view that differing incentives are present in fiscal vis-à-vis monetary policy; central bank independence is a core part of the explanation.

The crisis in the global economy continues to affect many men and women living in poverty, but it brings different meaning for both men and women. However, the concept of gender equality gives women and men the same entitlement to all aspects of human development including economic, social, cultural, civil and political rights; the same level of respect, the same opportunities to make choices; and the same level of power to shape the outcome of these choices. But the ground realities are totally different. Pre-existing inequalities, which include under representation of women at all level of property rights, economic decision making, over representation in unorganized sector, traditional occupations due to lack of necessary training and skills play significant role but more gender inequalities arise when economic crisis takes place. It is not only the poor who are not affected but near and working poor are also affected with it.

Second wave of COVID-19 had already swept India after its initial hit of the pandemic and definitely there will be a third wave of corona virus disease (Covid-19) in India once the Omicron variant starts replacing Delta as the dominant strain, according to members of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee .Lockdown imposed in country since 2020 with closure of all educational institutions has significantly changed the perspective of education in near future and a paradigm shift has been witnessed in the education sector during lockdown as e-learning came to the forefront, across the world with students and teachers have been forced to adapt to e-learning leaving the traditional classroom teaching, which they were not prepared for. As a result, a total of 320 million learners in India have been affected and moved into the e-learning industry, which includes a network of 1.5 million schools. With huge regional and household disparities in access to the internet and technology, many students and educators are reluctant to this transition. This situation has sparked a debate about whether e-learning is a good alternative to classroom learning. This paper aims to analyse how adversely did COVID-19 pandemic effected the education system of India and identify the arising gaps in transition from traditional to online learning and teaching process with addressing the efforts of Government of India to mobilize and support learning continuity and mitigate the impact of school closures, address learning losses and adapt education systems.

Cet article présente un tableau sombre de la situation archéologique en Syrie après plusieurs années de conflit militaire. L'analyse présentée met en évidence le rôle négatif de la Direction Générale des Antiquités et des Musées (DGAM) et en particulier sa subordination aux ordres de la propagande de l'autorité politique du pays. Nous observons également avec les changements qui ont eu lieu à la tête de cette institution à la fin de 2017, un refus ferme de coopérer avec les spécialistes syriens qui ont émigré au début de la crise, Les conséquences de cette attitude vont rendre les projets de reconstruction du patrimoine ancien de la Syrie caduque. La DGAM étant l'unique autorité en Syrie après dix années de soulèvement, va engager la « question archéologique syrienne » dans un cycle infernal qui l'amènera vers la ruine et la perte de toutes ses valeurs nobles et particulièrement de l'« archéologie de l'humain ». ; This article offers a bleak view of the desperate situation of Syria's national heritage after from nine years of military conflict. The study describes the negative role of the current archaeological authorities (DGAM), in particular their subordination to the current powers. The study also highlights the changes stemming from the staunch refusal of the DGAM since the end of 2017 to cooperate with qualified Syrian cadres who emigrated at the outset of the crisis which has led to the abandonment of reconstruction projects of ancient Syrian heritage. The DGAM as the sole authority in Syria after ten years of conflict is guiding the "Syrian archaeological question" into an infernal cycle toward a state of shambles and the loss of all its noble values, particularly those of "human archaeology".

International audience ; What is really at stake when scientific arguments are put forward to oppose environmental issues to agrarian reform and agricultural development? The aim of this paper is to contribute towards an identification and analysis of the patterns of this new kind of situation where farmers are confronted with ecological requirements. Such contradictions appear as a potential source of major land crises for the near future in Africa but also in other countries. We will see that growing environmental concerns such as the maintenance of biodiversity are tending to partially shift the issues of land conflict by emphasizing long-term sustainability of natural resources. This goal requires the mobilization of scientific knowledge that the various protagonists do not all possess to the same degree. Hence, the function of scientific knowledge in political decision-making is changing, as the increasing use of the concept of evidence-based policy' attests. It therefore seems relevant to identify the main lines of a critical analysis of this new role of scientific knowledge in decisions on land policies. This reflection is particularly necessary in so far as convergent observations show that the focus on scientific arguments often seems to be a pseudo-rationalization of policies used to reinforce the balance of power in place, rather than a real attempt to reshape society-environment relations.

International audience ; What is really at stake when scientific arguments are put forward to oppose environmental issues to agrarian reform and agricultural development? The aim of this paper is to contribute towards an identification and analysis of the patterns of this new kind of situation where farmers are confronted with ecological requirements. Such contradictions appear as a potential source of major land crises for the near future in Africa but also in other countries. We will see that growing environmental concerns such as the maintenance of biodiversity are tending to partially shift the issues of land conflict by emphasizing long-term sustainability of natural resources. This goal requires the mobilization of scientific knowledge that the various protagonists do not all possess to the same degree. Hence, the function of scientific knowledge in political decision-making is changing, as the increasing use of the concept of evidence-based policy' attests. It therefore seems relevant to identify the main lines of a critical analysis of this new role of scientific knowledge in decisions on land policies. This reflection is particularly necessary in so far as convergent observations show that the focus on scientific arguments often seems to be a pseudo-rationalization of policies used to reinforce the balance of power in place, rather than a real attempt to reshape society-environment relations.

What is really at stake when scientific arguments are put forward to oppose environmental issues to agrarian reform and agricultural development? The aim of this paper is to contribute towards an identification and analysis of the patterns of this new kind of situation where farmers are confronted with ecological requirements. Such contradictions appear as a potential source of major land crises for the near future in Africa but also in other countries. We will see that growing environmental concerns such as the maintenance of biodiversity are tending to partially shift the issues of land conflict by emphasizing long-term sustainability of natural resources. This goal requires the mobilization of scientific knowledge that the various protagonists do not all possess to the same degree. Hence, the function of scientific knowledge in political decision-making is changing, as the increasing use of the concept of evidence-based policy' attests. It therefore seems relevant to identify the main lines of a critical analysis of this new role of scientific knowledge in decisions on land policies. This reflection is particularly necessary in so far as convergent observations show that the focus on scientific arguments often seems to be a pseudo-rationalization of policies used to reinforce the balance of power in place, rather than a real attempt to reshape society-environment relations.

International audience ; Many active European volcanoes and volcano observatories are island-based and located far from their administrative "mainland". Consequently, Governments have developed multisite approaches, in which monitoring is performed by a network of individuals distributed across several national research centers. At a transnational level, multinational networks are also progressively emerging. Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, France) is one such example. Piton de la Fournaise is one of the most active volcanoes of the World, and is located at the greatest distance from its "mainland" than any other vulnerable "overseas" site, the observatory being 9365 km from its governing body in Paris. Effusive risk is high, so that a well-coordinated and rapid response involving near-real time delivery of trusted, validated and operational product for hazard assessment is critical. Here we review how near-real time assessments of lava flow propagation were developed using rapid provision, and update, of key source terms through a dynamic and open integration of near-real time remote sensing, modeling and measurement capabilities on both the national and international level. The multi-national system evolved during the five effusive crises of 2014–2015, and is now mature for Piton de la Fournaise. This review allows us to identify strong and weak points in an extended observatory system, and demonstrates that enhanced multi-national integration can have fundamental implications in scientific hazard assessment and response during an on-going effusive crisis