Suchergebnisse

Introduction: Bringing the left back in. 1. Weir, R. E.: Whose left/who's left? The knights of labour and "radical progressivism". 2. Moloney, P.: State socialism and William Pember Reeves. A reassessment. 3. Shor, F.: Bringing on the storm. Syndicalist counterpublics and the industrial workers of the world in New Zealand, 1908-1914. 4. Richardson, L.: "Billy Banjo": coalminer, socialist, poet and novelist. 5. Dunstall, G.: Governments, the police and the left, 1912-1951. 6. Taylor, K.: "Potential allies of the working class". The Communist Party of New Zealand and Maori, 1921-1952. 7. Boraman, T.: The new left in New Zealand. 8. Simpkin, G.: Feminism and the left. An interview with Gay Simpkin. / K. Taylor. 9. Locke, C.: Organising the unemployed. The politics of gender, culture and class in the 1980s and 1990s. 10. Sargent, L. T.: New Zealand utopian literature. A short history. 11. Olssen, E.: Writing the left into the picture. An interview with Erik Olssen. / K. Taylor

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply data-rich factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many countries. The methods covered are principal components, targeted predictors, weighted principal components, partial least squares, elastic net and ridge regression. Using these methods, we assess the marginal predictive content of international data for New Zealand GDP growth. We find that exploiting a large number of international predictors can improve forecasts of our target variable, compared to more traditional models based on small datasets. This is in spite of New Zealand survey data capturing a substantial proportion of the predictive information in the international data. The largest forecasting accuracy gains from including international predictors are at longer forecast horizons. The forecasting performance achievable with the data-rich methods differs widely, with shrinkage methods and partial least squares performing best. We also assess the type of international data that contains the most predictive information for New Zealand growth over our sample. -- Forecasting ; factor models ; shrinkage methods ; principal components ; targeted predictors ; weighted principal components ; partial least squares ; ridge regression ; elastic net ; international business cycles

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