Suchergebnisse

Arab authoritarianism : debating the dynamics and durability of nondemocratic regimes / Oliver Schlumberger -- State-society relations and opposition -- Social pacts and the persistence of authoritarianism in the Middle East / Steven Heydemann -- The management of opposition: formal structures of contestation and informal manipulation in Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco / Ellen Lust-Okar -- Authoritarian opposition and the politics of challenge in Egypt / Holger Albrecht -- Islamist inclusion and regime persistence : the Moroccan win-win situation / Eva Wegner -- The regimes -- The ozymandias syndrome : questioning the stability of Middle Eastern regimes / Peter Sluglett -- Intraregime dynamics, uncertainty, and the persistence of authoritarianism in the contemporary Arab world / Fred H. Lawson -- The privatization of social services as a regime strategy : the revival of Islamic endowments (Awqaf) in Egypt / Daniela Pioppi -- State-building, liberalization from above, and political legitimacy in the Sultanate of Oman / Marc Valeri -- The economy and the polity -- Linking economic and political reform in the Middle East: the role of the bourgeoisie / Giacomo Luciani -- The political economy of regime maintenance in Egypt : linking external resources and domestic legitimation / Thomas Richter -- From political to economic actors : the changing role of Middle Eastern armies / Philippe Droz-Vincent -- The international arena -- International dimensions of Middle Eastern authoritarianism : the G8 and external efforts at political reform / Mustapha K. Sayyid -- Democracy promotion and the renewal of authoritarian rule / Eberhard Kienle -- The longevity of the House of Saud : looking outside the box / Paul Aarts

A commonly proffered theory to explain the use of elections in authoritarian regimes is that they help identify talented young leaders who can be groomed for leadership positions. Unfortunately, due to the difficulties of obtaining data in authoritarian settings, this hypothesis has not been tested satisfactorily. We examine candidate-level data from the 2007 Vietnamese National Assembly (VNA) election and subsequent selection of candidates for top positions within the VNA and for top ministry positions. We find no evidence that vote share is associated with promotion to leadership positions in the VNA and only limited evidence for vote share association with ministerial posts. Instead, the results indicate that leadership selection takes place within the party rather than through elections. Furthermore, behavior within the assembly suggests that those who were chosen may have been selected based on their loyalty or at least pliancy to the party elites.