Suchergebnisse

SummaryPrediction of historical developments.Apart from the thirst for knowledge concerning the past, the urge to see into the future has invariably fulfilled an important function in the historical activity of the mind. Our ancestors in the middle ages, who gave a mystic interpretation to historical events, regarded history purely as a divine plan which would ultimately lead to the end of the world and the Day of Judgment. Their successors of the Renaissance period, after the Middle Ages, looked back to the ancient classical times by cultivating the notion that the historical process constituted a cycle with a continuous rise and fall, which would continue unchanged in the historical future. Modern history then created two notions regarding the future — developed from historical interpretation — which, although widely different, found each other and entered into a close union in the eighteenth and the nineteenth century. These were the notion of History as a Human Plan and the notion of History as Evolution.It is interesting to observe how at the present time, whilst eagerly weighing the chances of our Western future, new prognoses are actually being tried out — with more extensive material than ever before — but also how these prognoses of our time have changed nothing in and have added nothing to the four older systems. In the present era the four themes are powerfully active — completely at random — in our world of thought.

SummarySurvey of the development of the fisheries theoryA concise review is given of theoretical developments concerning the problem of overfishing. Preliminary concepts have evolved in the course of time. Management is now considered in terms of fishing activity and mesh size on a complementary basis. A special series of combinations of these is given preference on biological grounds. Economic factors play part in the final stage of designing fishery regulations.

SummaryA decade of social statistics.The development of descriptive statistics in the post‐liberation period can be characterized by the concepts integration and differentiation: side by side with an increasing knowledge of totality there is a constantly growing attention for detail.More so than formerly the central aim of international statistics is the obtaining of a statistical total picture in which on the one hand various statistics and on the other hand various countries can be shown. Moreover, differentiation can be distinguished: on the one hand as to fields of research, on the other hand as to geographical territories.Also from a national point of view there are intensive, integrating tendencies. There is e.g. the system of national accounts in which statistics perform an Emportant executive task.Improvement of information and statistical co‐ordination have been taken in hand; consistency is a requirement of the first order and regionalisation is often necessary.With respect to productivity — of major importance for the prosperity of our country — statistics were faced by a great task; much statistical work was done, productivity centres were established and research was organized.Furthermore random sampling technique and public opinion polls, which are indispensable to efficiently collecting statistical data, show an amazing development.More and more research and planning are making use of statistics.

SummaryA decade of industrial statisticsThis paper deals with a review about the development of industrial statistics in the Netherlands during the last ten years.Different factors influenced this development: a great need of statistical treatment of problems caused by the evolution of modern industry; the availability of useful statistical tools; the activity of a number of competetent industrial statisticians; the greater openness for new ideas and the better climate with reference to industrial statistics. A detailed discussion of these factors is given.

SummaryThis article discusses some methodological aspects of estimating the need for education in developing countries. Some suggestions are made how to relate education to economic development. Finally, the results of some preliminary statistical measurements of the relation between the stock of third‐level manpower and the level of production are discussed.

SummaryRecent developments in experimental designs for dealing with quantitative factors.This paper reviews some recent developments in experimental designs for dealing with quantitative factors.Successively discussed are:

Rotatable designs (Box),
Evolutionary operation (Box),
Experiments with mixtures (Scheffe),
Experiments with 10 to 100 factors (Satterthwaite),
Random vector experiments,
The use of electronic computers in fitting non‐linear models,
Research Strategy (McArthur).