Suchergebnisse

Tax analysis and forecasting of revenues are of paramount importance to ensure fiscal policy's viability and sustainability. However, the measures taken to contain the spread of the recent pandemic pose an unprecedented challenge to established models and approaches. This paper proposes a model to forecast tax revenues in Bulgaria for the fiscal years 2020–2022 built in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's recommendations on a dataset covering the period between 1995 and 2019. The study further discusses the actual trustworthiness of official Bulgarian forecasts, contrasting those figures with the model previously estimated. This study's quantitative results both confirm the pandemic's assumed negative impact on tax revenues and prove that econometrics can be tweaked to produce consistent revenue forecasts even in the relatively-unexplored case of Bulgaria offering new insights to policymakers and advocates. ; Porezna analiza i predviđanje prihoda je od izuzetne (najveće) važnosti kako bi se osigurala održivost fiskalne politike. Međutim, mjere poduzete za suzbijanje širenja nedavne pandemije predstavljaju neviđeni izazov za ustaljene modele i pristupe. Ovaj rad predlaže model za predviđanje poreznih prihoda u Bugarskoj za fiskalne godine 2020-2022. izrađen u skladu s preporukama Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda o skupu podataka koji pokriva razdoblje između 1995. i 2019. Studija dalje razmazra stvarnu pouzdanost službenih bugarskih prognoza, suprotstavljajući te brojke odgovarajućim procijenjenim modelima. Kvantitativni rezultati ove studije potvrđuju pretpostavljeni negativni uticaj pandemije na porezne prihode i dokazuju da se statistika može prilagoditi kako bi se proizvele dosljedne prognoze prihoda čak i u relativno neistraženom slučaju Bugarske koja nudi nove uvide kreatorima politike i zagovornicima.

This doctoral dissertation confirmes possibilities of application of mathematical methods in the contemporary approach of decision making in development projects of cluster organizations in Serbia, as well as introduction of software application "MS Project" which ensure more effective and more efficient project management of cluster organization development, assessment of all project resources engaged and optimal forecast on the completion of the project implementation. Regarding the fact that this issue has not been sufficiently elaborated in Serbia, the main goal of the research was to clarify the role and significance of the mathematical methods, as well as to elaborate the theoretical models of multi-criteria analysis that can be successfully implemented in practice with the aim of identifying and solving problems in the development of cluster organizations in Serbia. The mode and level of topic elaboration is in compliance with the goal of theoretical and hypothetical research framework. Beside theoretical aspect the doctoral dissertation presents the application of the following methods of multi-criteria decision making: "ELECTRE" and "AHP", as well as the software application "MS Project" on data of cluster organization "Cluster House" in Nis.

The paper gives an analysis of the system for implementing the regional policy in the Republic of Croatia. Proceeding from increasingly large development disparities in the Republic of Croatia, the paper evaluates the level of readiness of the territorial administrative system for conducting regional policy efficiently. Particular emphasis is being placed on the analysis of the three elements that are in a positive correlation with the efficient conduct of regional policy. They are: a legislation framework of regional policy, institutional structure with a special emphasis on the mechanisms of horizontal & vertical coordination, & the system of local & regional self-government. All three variables include relevant limitations that influence the efforts for additional improvement of the overall capacity for conducting regional policy & for stimulating the development of the country. The author analyses & justifies the need for adoption of a special regional development system act. He points to some basic issues that should be solved; he maintains an attitude that an institutional framework should be created & emphasizes the need for reform of local & regional self-government that should be transformed from a retarding element into a generator of development. Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.

The existing empirical studies examined the impact of different variables, such as common language, economic, cultural and geographical factors, on migration. However, none of the studies deals with the social security systems including their coordination as a relevant explanatory factor. The paper focuses on the social security systems in Europe, their mutual coordination and their influence on international migration. The influence of social systems on economic migration can be twofold: influencing the labour migration, i.e. migrants who move for work, and also influencing the benefit migration, i.e. migrants who move in order to receive social benefits. We present the advanced migration model extended by the factors of social security coordination. The main finding is that the labour migration prevails significantly over the benefit migration. Role of social systems as social magnets was not proved to be statistically significant. Adapted from the source document.

Regional differences are one of the most important forms of expression of uneven economic development. The unevenness of the level of development in the regions in the Republic of Serbia is one of the most complex development problems. The current economic policy has caused that the gap between rich and poor regions is increasing in Serbia. Different demographic development of the regions is consequences of differences of economic development. In this paper, the authors analyze the quantitative and qualitative population's characteristics. Attention is given to the implementation of VIKOR methods in order to rank the regions of Serbia according to the level of demographic development. Ranking regions by multiple criteria simultaneously, contributes to the determination of the real situation in terms of regional differences. The authors demonstrate that the multi-criteria analysis could be applied to determine the demographic disparities between the levels of development of the regions. The criteria and their importance could be changed depending on the consideration of demographic, economic and social development. Also, other methods of multi-criteria analysis in the evaluation of the demographic development of the region or state is applied.

Effectiveness of the administrative system as a whole depends on the quality of its organization. The Organizational structure reflects functional dynamic of the public administration. On the other hand, functional requirements of efficiency and effectiveness of the administrative system determine organizational forms. The scope, character and nature of administrative actions require optimal and coordinated external (macro-organization) and internal (micro-organization) organizational structure, which will allow optimal functioning of an administrative system. Therefore, the organizational structure is not immutable category, because tasks and roles, activities and goals, are changing in the same government system and sometimes even the whole system, so it is necessary to change the administrative organization. Administrative organization is systemic (external and internal) open dynamic structure of state government agencies and other bodies and organizations with public (administrative) powers prescribed in the course of lawful relationships of dynamic interaction, based on the hierarchy or coordination, depending on the nature and objectives of administrative tasks. Current organization of the state administration has not been made according to the principles of modern management. It is a result of the political spoils system, and reflects the need for political control of the administrative departments. It lacks functional analysis and expert approach.

The Lisbon Treaty has brought significant changes into the architecture of the European Union. The most important novelty, however, is the establishment of a full unity of the Union structure achieved by creating new and strengthening the existing elements. The new elements of this unity are the disappearance of the European Community, the 'independence' of the European Atomic Energy Community, constituting the European Union as a single entity and the introduction of EU values. At the same time, the Lisbon Treaty has strengthened the existing elements of the common institutional mechanisms, rules on amending the founding treaties and EU membership. However, constituting the Union as a single entity which has replaced and succeeded the European Communities has not abolished the EU elements of diversity. In the areas that differed, even before the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, from the community pillar, there remain significant differences in the nature and the scope of competences of the Union institutions. This mainly regards the common foreign and security policy, which now includes the defense policy, where the existing model of inter-state cooperation has been only slightly interfered with. In contrast, in the field of police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, which has become part of a larger Area of Freedom, Security and Justice, the inter-state model of cooperation has been abandoned in some of its most important elements. However, the implementation of some of the important elements of the supranational model has been postponed.

Geographers play an important role in the announced & expected reform of the political & institutional system by introducing a second tier of local self-government. Their role is not only associated with preparing an appropriate subdivision of Slovenia into functionally closed areas, but also, considering contemporary social causal links between forming the regions & regional development, the effects of the polycentric settlement network layout & the decentralization of public institutions. The paper derives from an assumption that decentralization of institutions plays an important role in overcoming regional disparities. Together with appropriate organization, decentralization of institutions allows more efficient utilization of development potential. In contemporary development policy, institutions are a decisive instrument. In addition to technical innovations & a creative environment, institutions stand out as an impulse & central support point, for harmonious social development. This paper is clearly of a theoretical nature. It deals with the role, effects & consequences of the decentralization of institutions as an instrument for balanced sustainable regional development. The factors, which have an impact on the success of regionalization in a function of decentralization policy, are analyzed They are: especially formation of clear political & legal frameworks for starting the reform process, a clear indication of powerful and, if possible, interdepartmental responsible persons for management & coordination of the decentralization process, forming the concept of decentralized regionalization of Slovenia that aims at an even distribution of tasks & responsibilities such as clear forms of mutual (horizontal & vertical) coordination & mutual reciprocal inspections between different regional & state levels, an outline of state-level transfers where individual administrative & legal steps mean transfer of financial & personal competences & equipment to the participants in regional communities, & finally, measures for providing professional qualification of institutions in decentralized regional associations for taking on new tasks. Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.

Abstract. Crisis response planning can never fully prevent a certain amount of improvisation given that, in some cases, it is necessary, if not even desirable. This article analyses the research question on the relationship between crisis planning and improvisation in theory and with respect to the Covid-19 epidemic in Slovenia. Despite existing systemic recommendations, normative and to some extent operational crisis preparedness, our analysis of the country's response reveals improvisation in several key elements: planning, decision-making, coordination and crisis communication. The quite considerable improvisation seen with the epidemic is the outcome of its unexpected dimensions, the absence of a comprehensive crisis management plan, and individual actors' insufficient crisis management competences. It has been reflected in the establishing of specialised ad hoc structures, overnight decisions and their sudden reversals, and often in inconsistent and inappropriate communication with the public. Keywords: preparedness, improvisation, planning, decision-making, coordination, crisis communication, Covid-19 epidemic