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A study of the relationship between PO & national policy outcome for the fifteen year period from 1970 to 1974. All issues for which national opinion survey data were available were included; the primary sources were the Gallup & Harris polls. The record of federal action on these items was determined from the Weekly Reports published by Congressional Quarterly. The issues examined included (1) social welfare, (2) economy & labor, (3) defense, (4) foreign policy, (5) energy & environment, (6) civil rights, (7) reform, & (8) Viet Nam. Results reveal that in approximately 66.6% of the cases, consistency was found between PO & policy outcomes. 'The political process at the national level does tend to respond to public preference, but in a decidely imperfect way.' 1 Table, 1 Appendix. M. Cain.

Inferences about the meaning of opinion data & predictions of subsequent behavior based on such data require a systematic conceptualization of processes of opinion formation & change. A theoretical model that may be useful for this purpose is presented & its implications for the analysis of PO spelled out. The model is based on a distinction between 3 processes of behavior change resulting from soc influence: compliance, identification & internalization. Each of these processes is characterized by a distinct set of antecedent conditions & a distinct set of consequences. The 3 processes & the antecedents & consequents associated with each are described. Finally, 3 lines of res, conducted within the framework of this model are reviewed: (1) exp'al tests of the antecedent-consequent relationships postulated by the model, (2) application of the model to the study of personality factors in soc influence, & (3) application of the model to a study of the att'inal effects of a stay in a foreign country. AA.

The qualitative uses of TV news usage may differ for opinion leaders than for the general public. These differences may be apparent in two areas: "cognitive orientation" & "surveillance-reassurance." Opinion leaders were expected to use TV news to increase their information while others do not. A sample of 240 adults was personally interviewed during Oct & Nov 1975 in Albany County, NY. Quotas were used for sex, age, & employment & all were screened so that each person watched TV news at least once a week. Generally, PO leaders did not watch news more often than did nonleaders. As PO leadership increased, people claimed to use TV news more for information & opinion formation -- the cognitive orientation dimension (r = .358, p less than .01). PO leadership was not associated with the surveillance-reassurance dimension -- ie, to give context to people's social situation. 1 Table, Appendix. M. Migalski.

If theory is equated with 'middle range' theory rather than with overall synthesis then PO theory is making headway & the collection of empirical data is not antithetical to it. A review of PO res in the US during the past 20 yrs shows 2 major gaps impeding the building of middle range theories: (1) 'The continuous attention of opinion res to the transient issues of the day has meant a discontinuity in the study of particular content areas & a corresponding lack of a sound theory of soc determinants of opinion formation & change,' (2) the emphasis in opinion res on the adult pop & on a narrow psychol'al emphasis make it difficult to formulate theories on the soc substratum of PO. It is concluded that the outlook for PO theory is bright particularly if indices are developed to measure public opinion rather than individual opinion & if indices are developed to measure the normative requirements of PO in relation to varying pol'al structures. S. F. Fava.

The process of PO formation was studied by a panel survey of a local flood control controversy. Alternative proposals confronting residents of a Kansas river valley were (1) a single large dam to be built by the Army Engineers or (2) about 90 small dams constructed by an association of land owners in the watershed. Focused interviews with 95 residents were conducted one yr apart, before & after an active propaganda & recruitment campaign conducted by the watershed association. Persons most in favor of the watershed treatment plan increased. Knowledge of both advantages & disadvantages of watershed treatment increased while knowledge of big dams decreased. Propaganda generated informal counter propaganda. However, affective concern over the issue declined & polarization was slight. The decreasing salience of personal interests as a determinant of opinion was shown by comparing the att's of residents up or down stream from the site of the big dam. The diff. was tested by Chi-square. Decreased salience of interests can be attributed to the appeal to group values by the watershed advocates. Persons who showed a positive change in opinion or attitude were compared with the negative or nonchangers in their interests, soc participation, & personal communication on the subject of water control. Signif was tested by Chi-square & association measured by Cramer's V. Changers reported signif'ly more personal communication than nonchangers & the diff's were greatest when there was interaction in primary relationships. Of the several criteria of soc participation compared, only diff. in number of memberships in associations was large enough to reject the 0-hyp. Changers also included disproportionate N's of M's & persons reared outside the county of residence. Indicators of material interests were not associated with opinion change. The resolution of the controversy through opinion formation appeared to be primarily a consequence of changing knowledge, affectivety level, relative salience of values & interests, & diff.ial recruitment. Ideas advanced by org's & projected through mass media emerged as opinions through interpersonal communication. AA.

Classroom use of a role-playing procedure can illustrate graphically the way SES, personal interests, primary group affiliation, secondary group membership, & other factors enter into the formation of individual opinions on public issues. This technique can also highlight the diff between private opinion & PO, indicate the mechanism through which a relatively few individuals can influence the opinions of a large number, & throw light on the effects of publicity & public discussion on the distribution of opinions in a pop. Adaptations of this 'game' may prove useful as a res tool. AA.

In studying opinion formation & change, successive crosssectional sample surveys of age groups-cohorts-enable the researcher to combine the long-run perspective of trend studies & the panel-study focus on process. This may be called a quasi-panel type study. The study of opinion changes of a cohort is accomplished 'by using an age breakdown which is adjusted to the interval between a series of cross-sectional surveys.' In such studies the unit of analysis is the age group rather than the individual as in panel studies. The usefulness of this method is illustrated in the analysis of data from three AIPO sample surveys made in 1937 (N=2,855), 1954(N=1,584), & 1953 (N= 1,527). R's in each case were asked a question regarding Gov ownership of railroads. Opinions of 2 cohorts are examined: Cohort A-age group 24-30 in 1937, & 40-46 in 1953; Cohort B-aged 47-53 in 1937 & 63-69 in 1953. Analysis reveals: (1) while the trend in general was an increase in opposition to Gov ownership, compared with the older cohort the younger one which started with fewer opposed to Gov ownership in 1937 was more opposed in 1953. (2) The relative effect on opinion change of historical events is found to be greater than aging. (3) Though analysis of `turnover' is precluded in a quasi-panel study, analysis of internal change in a cohort is possible by sub-classifying the cohort on structural variables. In this case the differential effects of historical factors on diff soc categories in a generation & on the same soc categories in contemporaneous generations are shown. The cohort technique is limited: (i) in the possibility of cumulative sampling error '& sampling bias in a series of cross-sectional surveys, esp when quota samples are used;' (ii) in the possibility of bias in the composition of cohorts due to mortality & migration; & (iii) in the 'meagerness of sociol'al data often found in PO polls & other surveys.' These limitations are to some extent counter-balanced by: (a) the possibility of using the ever growing accumulation of poll data to study opinion formation & change & its determinants; & (b) the probability that new types of primary analysis will be stimulated by analyses of secondary data. C. M. Coughenour.

A note by H. M. Scoble introduces author abstracts of papers presented in the 4 sessions: (1) Studies in attitude Change & Opinion Formation, chaired by Edward McDonagh; (2) Graduate Papers: A Competition (won by Matilda Rees of Stanford for her paper 'Achievement Motivation and Media Content Preferences'), chaired by Harold Kassarjian; (3) The Public Pol, & the Uses of Res, chaired by Gene N. Levine; &, (4) Developments & Discussions on Methodology, chaired by Earl Timmons. M. Duke.