Regional integration, migration, growth and direct investment: a reading of the economic literature
In: Globalisation, migration and development, S. 75-123
"This paper examines the impact of North-South regional integration policies on growth, direct investment and migration flows, in the light of recent theoretical and empirical studies. It shows that many grey areas still exist in this field, owing mainly to uncertainties surrounding the processes of economic convergence and development. The uncertainties in question are strikingly illustrated by recent events affecting emerging countries (the Asian crisis and its repercussions). The paper is designed as follows. The first part sets down the main arguments for migratory behaviour, as they have been catalogued by microeconomic theory, and discusses the impact of regional integration policies on these arguments. It concludes that North-South regional integration offers a serious alternative to migration only if it has a chance to markedly change the living conditions and expectations of South country populations within a fairly short period of time - in less than a generation. The second part focuses on the consequences of open trade on South countries' long-term growth. It concludes that the beneficial effects of regional integration on growth come about through technology transfers and investment. The third part is devoted to the effects of regional integration on direct investment. It shows that inherent in present regional integration processes is the risk of disqualifying countries that are short on human and social capital and have small-sized domestic markets." (excerpt)