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We study whether the number of signatures collected to qualify a popular initiative affects the probability of reforming the status quo. The initiative process is modeled as a sequential game under uncertainty: petitioners make an entry decision and collect signatures to qualify the initiative. Politicians decide about a political compromise - a counter proposal - after which petitioners have the option to withdraw the initiative before the vote. In equilibrium, politicians infer the initiative's popularity from the number of signatures and collection time. They more likely grant counter proposals to initiatives perceived as a threat to the status quo. To prove their success probability, petitioners sometimes have the incentive to collect more signatures than required for qualification. We test model predictions based on the data set of all Swiss constitutional initiatives at federal level between 1891 and 2010. Overall, we find supporting evidence for the model mechanisms. Reforms are most likely once a far-reaching counter proposal is issued such that the initiative is withdrawn. We find a significant effect of collecting more signatures than required on the probability of provoking a compromise.

Die politischen Parteien in der Schweiz verfügen über einen beträchtlichen Einfluß auf die direkte Demokratie. Die Untersuchung wird in systematischer Analyse und zehn empiri­schen Fallstudien über Volksinitiativen und Referenden durchgeführt. Die vergleichende Studie zeigt, daß die Parteien im Initiativ- und Referendumsprozeß in den US-Bundesstaaten fast be­deutungslos sind, während sie in den Volksbegehren und Volksentscheiden in den deutschen Bundesländern eine wichtige Rolle spielen. ; Political parties in Switzerland exert a considerable influence on direct democracy. The examination is carried out in systematical analysis and ten empirical case studies on popular initiatives and referendums. The comparative study indicates, that parties are insignificant in the initiative and referendum process in the US states, whereas they play an important role for ini­tiatives and referendums in the German states.

Anotācija Promocijas darbā analizēti tiešās demokrātijas institūti Latvijā un Eiropas valstīs, tos salīdzinot, izdarot secinājumus par tiešās demokrātijas institūtu tiesiskā regulējuma nepilnībām Latvijā un iesakot iespējamos uzlabojumus. Autore piedāvā ieskatu tiešās demokrātijas vēsturē un autores izstrādātas tiešās demokrātijas institūtu definīcijas un klasifikāciju. Atsevišķi analizēts katrs Latvijas tiešās demokrātijas institūts, kas ietverts Satversmē: fakultatīvā veto tautas nobalsošana; obligātā konstitucionālā tautas nobalsošana; tautas nobalsošana par dalību Eiropas Savienībā un par būtiskām izmaiņām šīs dalības nosacījumos; vēlētāju likumdošanas iniciatīva un automātiskā tautas nobalsošana, tautas nobalsošana par Saeimas atsaukšanu un atlaišanu. Promocijas darbā analizēts vietējais, kā arī konsultatīvais referendums Eiropā. Atslēgas vārdi Tiešā demokrātija, tautas nobalsošana, vēlētāju likumdošanas iniciatīva ; Annotation The Author analyses and compares legal institutes of direct democracy in Latvia and in Europe, draws conclusions about shortcomings of the legal framework of direct democracy in Latvia, and proposes improvements. The Thesis focuses on history of direct democracy, and provides definitions of direct democracy institutes and a classification of direct democracy mechanisms. The Author offers a separate analysis of each Latvian institute of direct democracy included in the Latvian Constitution: optional veto referendum; mandatory constitutional referendum; referendum on the European Union membership and on substantial changes in terms of Latvian membership in the Union; popular initiative and automatic referendum; referendum on dissolution of the Parliament. The Thesis analyses local referendum and consultative referendum in Europe. Key words Direct democracy, referendum, popular initiative