Suchergebnisse

Explanation is given to the dismal predictions of the Club of Rome studies concerning long-run consequences of economic growth & population increases, & why they are not translated into policy changes affecting those variables. The domestic function of economic growth, providing bargaining space for the solution of political conflicts, & the propensity of policy makers to give priority to short-run problems affecting their own position inhibit these policy changes. Focus is on the theory of W. Harich, (KOMMUNISMUS OHNE WACHSTUM? BABEUF UND DER CLUB OF ROME [Communism without Growth? Babeuf and the Club of Rome], Rheinbeck: Rowohlt, 1975) a philosopher from the German Democratic Republic who argued for rigid centralization of political & economic power at the global level. Although Harich did not include concepts such as `liberty', `democracy', & `constitution' in his theory, this can be compared to some of the political reactions to the challenge in Western Europe. Proposals made by Tinbergen & the Mansholt plan however are found to be more promising. 3 Figures. Modified HA.

The article deals with the proper identification & localization of the effect of election predictions on voting behavior. As a revision of the "traditional bandwagon concept" stemming from the 1930's & 1940's, which is still in use despite its conceptual fallacy, new lines of thought are merged into the definition of the "modern bandwagon concept:" the relative & subjective bandwagon effects, together with the relative & subjective underdog effects & the slack effect, constitute the declaration effect as a resultant. Using matrices based upon party preferences, upon exposure to, perception of & interpretation of election predictions, & upon possible voting behavior, the several effects are localized. The real existence of effects is briefly discussed in relation to favorable or neutralizing conditions from the fields of pol'al sci & of mass COMM's. A warning is issued, on methodological & pol'al grounds, against too quick an acceptance of US res findings as valid for the Netherlands. IPSA.

The welfare state is analyzed through positive economic science & positive political theory. The axiomatic theory of consistent choice, leading to the idea of Pareto optimality, provides more rigorous analysis than the theory of the firm & of industrial organization; however, the latter theory more fully merges theory with the empirical testing of hypotheses. Theories of political phenomena can profit more from theories of the latter kind than from theories of the former kind. The central point is production of falsifiable theories of hypotheses & predictions, & the avoidance of confusions of description with prescription in dealing with political life. The debate over whether a socialist economy can coordinate decisions on the use of scarce resources, & the resulting questions over the social & economic role of the state, remain unresolved on theoretical grounds. Thus, economics cannot prescribe the proper role of the state. Attention must be given to the process & meaning of law making, the intended effects of laws & their compatibility with one another. There is thus a need for scientific & parliamentary scrutiny of their implementation in a democratic state under pressure from interest groups. There is a great need for analysis of the processes going on in the crumbling welfare state, rather than propaganda; providing this analysis is part of the vocation of academic leaders. Modified HA.