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The aim of the publication is to present selected forecasting problems in social sciences. The article focused on the method of decision-making/simulation games that, especially with the development of game theory and computers, have increasingly been used in many fields. Using examples of decision/simulation games - Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E - and the online game EVE Online, the author recognised the importance of such exercises in an accurate prediction of the future. He drew special attention to the element of chance and confounding factors that may destabilise the process of prediction. He also raised the problem of decision-making in the context of classical and quantum logic. ; Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

Poland supported George W. Bush's Iraqi policy and sent soldiers who were supposed to fight, together with Americans, against Saddam Hussein's regime. The decision was highly risky for Poland, as it had been taken at the time when Poland was just about to enter the European Union. Both Germany and France, playing crucial role in the EU, were against any military sanctions towards Iraq. There were predictions that Polish actions, contrary to the European power's vision, would result in a serious crisis. There were even fears that it would impede Poland joining the EU. Indeed, the crisis occurred, however it soon became only the background for European problems. Iraqi issue led also to the deterioration of the relations between Poland and Russia. Moscow's government did not approve of the consolidation of American's position in the Middle-East and in Middle-East Europe.

The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union plays a particular role in the process of European integration and the implementation of numerous community goals that go beyond the traditional functions of agriculture, associated with the production of food, and concern the multifunctional development of rural territories. The CAP played the main role in enlarging the EU, by incorporating the twelve new states from Central and Eastern Europe by means of ensuring their smooth integration into the common market and facilitating the accelerated adaptation, modernization and restructurization of the agricultural and food sectors, as well as the non-agricultural fields of the socio-economic and cultural activation of rural populations. The EU's agricultural and rural policy continues to undergo evolutionary transformation, and its shape in the new 2014–202 financial perspective is of vital and justified interest for Poland. The paper presents the latest proposals of the European Commission in this respect, presented on October 12, 2011, the Polish official negotiating position and the author's assessments, opinions and predictions. ; The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union plays a particular role in the process of European integration and the implementation of numerous community goals that go beyond the traditional functions of agriculture, associated with the production of food, and concern the multifunctional development of rural territories. The CAP played the main role in enlarging the EU, by incorporating the twelve new states from Central and Eastern Europe by means of ensuring their smooth integration into the common market and facilitating the accelerated adaptation, modernization and restructurization of the agricultural and food sectors, as well as the non-agricultural fields of the socio-economic and cultural activation of rural populations. The EU's agricultural and rural policy continues to undergo evolutionary transformation, and its shape in the new 2014–202 financial perspective is of vital and justified interest for Poland. The paper presents the latest proposals of the European Commission in this respect, presented on October 12, 2011, the Polish official negotiating position and the author's assessments, opinions and predictions.

The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union plays a particular role in the process of European integration and the implementation of numerous community goals that go beyond the traditional functions of agriculture, associated with the production of food, and concern the multifunctional development of rural territories. The CAP played the main role in enlarging the EU, by incorporating the twelve new states from Central and Eastern Europe by means of ensuring their smooth integration into the common market and facilitating the accelerated adaptation, modernization and restructurization of the agricultural and food sectors, as well as the non-agricultural fields of the socio-economic and cultural activation of rural populations. The EU's agricultural and rural policy continues to undergo evolutionary transformation, and its shape in the new 2014–202 financial perspective is of vital and justified interest for Poland. The paper presents the latest proposals of the European Commission in this respect, presented on October 12, 2011, the Polish official negotiating position and the author's assessments, opinions and predictions.

The article discusses the findings of the multilevel government school (MLG) which has been advancing since the beginning of the 21st century, studying regional elections. The concept defining regional elections as second-order elections has been recognized as critical, although it is reformulated by the MLG school to respond to changes in modern regional politics in Europe. Important recent political developments include the entrenchment of regional governments, the increase in the number of electoral appointments, expanded competencies of voters, the rise of non-state-wide parties and the empowerment of sub-national organizational levels of parties. Current MLG research focuses on identifying and explaining the cases where second-order election predictions do not appear to hold for regional elections, identifying states where it is still the case and, finally, identifying factors that increase or decrease this effect. An interesting theoretical development regarding regional elections as second-order elections is that this concept is supplemented and enriched by the theories of regional authority and territorial cleavages. The final part of the article reviews studies on regional elections and the applicability of the second-order concept to Central and Eastern European countries.

Without doubt, tension between Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Hizmet Movement is of vital importance for both Turkey and international society. This conflict is also important for Turkey's future when considering the concept of democracy. In this context, this tension has been mentioned by both academic and associated political interests worldwide. Therefore the importance of the outcome of this issue is going to be one of the key factors deciding Turkey's political and social future. To clearly understand and make predictions concerning Turkey's future, it is important to understand not only the actors involved and their normative and ideological perspectives; the deeper problematic areas of the Turkish state should also be explored. This paper outlines almost ten years of Turkey's social and political life under these two main opposing actors. This study will try to find a rational answer to the question of "what will be the outcome of this tension surrounding Turkish democracy for the political arena and civil society?" In this respect, the contemporary meaning of civil society, its importance for a healthy democracy and the relation among the state, the government which controls all state apparatus and the civil society organisations is explained. The final part provides further details about the AKP and Hizmet Movement and the subjects of their tension.

Without doubt, tension between Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Hizmet Movement is of vital importance for both Turkey and international society. This conflict is also important for Turkey's future when considering the concept of democracy. In this context, this tension has been mentioned by both academic and associated political interests worldwide. Therefore the importance of the outcome of this issue is going to be one of the key factors deciding Turkey's political and social future. To clearly understand and make predictions concerning Turkey's future, it is important to understand not only the actors involved and their normative and ideological perspectives; the deeper problematic areas of the Turkish state should also be explored. This paper outlines almost ten years of Turkey's social and political life under these two main opposing actors. This study will try to find a rational answer to the question of "what will be the outcome of this tension surrounding Turkish democracy for the political arena and civil society?" In this respect, the contemporary meaning of civil society, its importance for a healthy democracy and the relation among the state, the government which controls all state apparatus and the civil society organisations is explained. The final part provides further details about the AKP and Hizmet Movement and the subjects of their tension.

In the article the author presents his analysis of the current political events in Ukraine, beginning with the origin of the Euromajdan and the mistakes of president Yanukowych that eventually led to his removal. The Ukrainian society is depicted with strong emphasis on the high level of political awareness that is characteristic of that society and their determination to reach their goals, as well as their political and economic aspirations. According to the author, the Ukrainian-Russian war started on February 28, 2014 when unidentified troops began occupation of administrative buildings in Crimea and the development of this conflict will bring severe consequences for both countries. Furthermore, the possible reasons why Putin chose the Crimea as an arena of his political pursuits are provided, as well as his minimum, maximum and interval targets concerning Ukraine. The author also maintains that the West and its actions or lack thereof is crucial for Ukraine; he notices that the demands made by the Western side are ignored, but he sees them not as "empty words" but announcements of future political events. He believes that the Western countries will take action in two ways: they will introduce immediate symbolic sanctions, as well as long-term sanctions aimed to prevent violating international law in the future. The article also presents the author's prediction concerning the future actions of the Western states and the likelihood of direct NATO intervention. Additionally, the author considers the situation in Ukraine also from the perspective of Poland.

In the article the author presents his analysis of the current political events in Ukraine, beginning with the origin of the Euromajdan and the mistakes of president Yanukowych that eventually led to his removal. The Ukrainian society is depicted with strong emphasis on the high level of political awareness that is characteristic of that society and their determination to reach their goals, as well as their political and economic aspirations. According to the author, the Ukrainian-Russian war started on February 28, 2014 when unidentified troops began occupation of administrative buildings in Crimea and the development of this conflict will bring severe consequences for both countries. Furthermore, the possible reasons why Putin chose the Crimea as an arena of his political pursuits are provided, as well as his minimum, maximum and interval targets concerning Ukraine. The author also maintains that the West and its actions or lack thereof is crucial for Ukraine; he notices that the demands made by the Western side are ignored, but he sees them not as "empty words" but announcements of future political events. He believes that the Western countries will take action in two ways: they will introduce immediate symbolic sanctions, as well as long-term sanctions aimed to prevent violating international law in the future. The article also presents the author's prediction concerning the future actions of the Western states and the likelihood of direct NATO intervention. Additionally, the author considers the situation in Ukraine also from the perspective of Poland.

Publikacja jest zbiorem artykułów z I Ogólnopolskiej Konferencji Studencko-Doktoranckiej, zorganizowanej 8 czerwca 2018 r. pt. "Świat, państwo, człowiek. Istota i perspektywy bezpieczeństwa w XXI wieku", zorganizowanej przez Koło Naukowe Doktorantów Nauk o Bezpieczeństwie UPH oraz Studenckie Koło Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego UPH ; Streszczenie: Aktualny stan polskiej infrastruktury energetycznej, prognozy zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną oraz europejska polityka energetyczna, ukierunkowana na ograniczenie emisji dwutlenku węgla do atmosfery, wskazują na potrzebę rozwoju krajowej energetyki jądrowej oraz zwiększenie wykorzystania odnawialnych źródeł energii. Realizacja założeń polskiego programu jądrowego napotyka szereg problemów. Najistotniejsze z nich mają podłoże ekonomiczne oraz społeczne, związane z obawami społeczeństwa dotyczącymi bezpieczeństwa eksploatacji elektrowni. W artykule zestawiono przebieg i skutki największych awarii jądrowych na świecie z opiniami polskiego społeczeństwa na temat planów rozwoju energetyki jądrowej. Opinie te wynikają z braku obiektywnej wiedzy oraz powielania wielu mitów, którym przeczą naukowe badania i publikacje. Potencjalna eksploatacja polskiej elektrowni jądrowej będzie znacznie bardziej bezpieczna, niż się powszechnie uważa. ; Abstract: The current state of Polish energy infrastructure, the predictions of the demands for electricity and European policies aimed at the reduction of carbon dioxide emission all indicate the need for the nuclear power development and further exploitation of reusable sources of energy. The fulfillment of the objectives of the Polish nuclear program faces some difficulties. The most important ones are economic and social ones which are associated with the anxiety caused by the possible dangers connected to the nuclear power plant's exploitation. The article presents the course and the effects of the largest nuclear failures in the world with the opinions of the Polish society concerning the plans for the development of nuclear energy. These opinions stem from the lack of objective knowledge and misguided belief in the popular myths, which have already been debunked in numerous studies. The exploitation of a hypothetical nuclear power plant based in Poland is reported to be not nearly as dangerous as it is universally believed.

Artykuł ten przedstawia dorobek intensywnie rozwijającej się od początku XXI wieku, w badaniach nad wyborami regionalnymi, perspektywy rządzenia wielopoziomowego. Perspektywa ta, odwołuje się do koncepcji wyborów regionalnych jako wyborów drugorzędnych, jednak modyfikuje ją, wskazując na przeobrażenia zachodzące we współczesnej polityce regionalnej w Europie (wzmocnienie władz regionalnych [regional government], zwiększenie liczby stanowisk politycznych, które obsadzane są w drodze wyborów, większe kompetencje wyborców, wzrost liczby partii regionalnych i decentralizacja struktur partyjnych). Prace badawcze prowadzone w ramach tej perspektywy zmierzają do udokumentowania i wyjaśnienia przypadków niepotwierdzających modelu drugorzędności oraz wyodrębnienia krajów, w których jest ona nadal obserwowalna i ustalenia czynników wzmacniających ją lub osłabiających. W warstwie teoretycznej, przy opisie wyborów regionalnych, koncepcja wyborów drugorzędnych wzbogacana i uzupełniana jest o dwie inne koncepcje, odwołujące się do zakresu sprawstwa władz regionalnych i podziałów terytorialnych. Artykuł zakończy zaprezentowanie badań nad wyborami w Europie Środkowowschodniej. ; The article discusses the findings of the multilevel government school (MLG) which has been advancing since the beginning of the 21st century, studying regional elections. The concept defining regional elections as second-order elections has been recognized as critical, although it is reformulated by the MLG school to respond to changes in modern regional politics in Europe. Important recent political developments include the entrenchment of regional governments, the increase in the number of electoral appointments, expanded competencies of voters, the rise of non-state-wide parties and the empowerment of sub-national organizational levels of parties. Current MLG research focuses on identifying and explaining the cases where second-order election predictions do not appear to hold for regional elections, identifying states where it is still the case and, finally, identifying factors that increase or decrease this effect. An interesting theoretical development regarding regional elections as second-order elections is that this concept is supplemented and enriched by the theories of regional authority and territorial cleavages. The final part of the article reviews studies on regional elections and the applicability of the second-order concept to Central and Eastern European countries.

An interview with a very famous Russian writer of the middle generation, Dmitry Bykov (born in 1967), recorded in Krosno in the Subcarpathian region in mid-May 2014, concerns the situation in Russia and in Eastern and Central Europe shortly after the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea by Putin's Russia. Dmitry Bykov is strongly against this aggression, seeing it as the source of many future misfortunes for Russia, but at the same time he sees the disastrous dimension of contemporary Ukrainian politics, also – in his opinion – too nationalist. When it comes to the assessment of President Putin who functions to this day, Bykov considers him a very mediocre manager, and generally – a man without qualities, predicting his imminent collapse and retirement in some foreign country. The most interesting fragments of the conversation, however, are not those in which the writer's, of course, unfulfilled predictions were formulated, but those about the past and present fate of Russia, which at the beginning of the 21st century again turned out to be hostile to democracy and good relations with its closer and more distant neighbours. Bykov sees in this peculiar Russian "laws of historical development," but his vision of the future history of Russia is far from fatal and we can even call it moderately optimistic. ; Rozmowa z bardzo znanym pisarzem rosyjskim średniego pokolenia Dmitrijem Bykowem (ur. w 1967), przeprowadzona w Krośnie na Podkarpaciu w połowie maja 2014 roku, dotyczy sytuacji w Rosji oraz w Europie Wschodniej i Środkowowschodniej nazajutrz po aneksji ukraińskiego Krymu przez putinowską Rosję. Dmitrij Bykow opowiada się zdecydowanie przeciwko tej agresji, widząc w niej źródło wielu przyszłych nieszczęść Rosji, ale jednocześnie dostrzega też zgubny wymiar współczesnej polityki ukraińskiej, także – jego zdaniem – zanadto nacjonalistycznej. Gdy chodzi o ocenę funkcjonującego aż do dziś prezydenta Putina, to Bykow uznaje go za menedżera bardzo średniej klasy, a ogólnie – za człowieka bez właściwości, przepowiadając mu rychły upadek i emeryturę w jakimś zagranicznym kraju. Najciekawsze fragmenty rozmowy to jednak nie te, w których zostały sformułowane nieurzeczywistnione oczywiście przepowiednie pisarza, lecz te, w których mowa o przeszłych i aktualnych losach Rosji, która na początku XXI wieku znowu okazała się nieprzyjazna dla demokracji i dobrosąsiedzkich stosunków z bliższą i dalszą okolicą. Bykow widzi w tym swoiste rosyjskie "prawa historycznego rozwoju", jednakże jego wizja przyszłych dziejów Ojczyzny jest daleka od fatalizmu i możemy ją nawet nazwać umiarkowanie optymistyczną.

An interview with a very famous Russian writer of the middle generation, Dmitry Bykov (born in 1967), recorded in Krosno in the Subcarpathian region in mid-May 2014, concerns the situation in Russia and in Eastern and Central Europe shortly after the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea by Putin's Russia. Dmitry Bykov is strongly against this aggression, seeing it as the source of many future misfortunes for Russia, but at the same time he sees the disastrous dimension of contemporary Ukrainian politics, also – in his opinion – too nationalist. When it comes to the assessment of President Putin who functions to this day, Bykov considers him a very mediocre manager, and generally – a man without qualities, predicting his imminent collapse and retirement in some foreign country. The most interesting fragments of the conversation, however, are not those in which the writer's, of course, unfulfilled predictions were formulated, but those about the past and present fate of Russia, which at the beginning of the 21st century again turned out to be hostile to democracy and good relations with its closer and more distant neighbours. Bykov sees in this peculiar Russian "laws of historical development," but his vision of the future history of Russia is far from fatal and we can even call it moderately optimistic. ; Rozmowa z bardzo znanym pisarzem rosyjskim średniego pokolenia Dmitrijem Bykowem (ur. w 1967), przeprowadzona w Krośnie na Podkarpaciu w połowie maja 2014 roku, dotyczy sytuacji w Rosji oraz w Europie Wschodniej i Środkowowschodniej nazajutrz po aneksji ukraińskiego Krymu przez putinowską Rosję. Dmitrij Bykow opowiada się zdecydowanie przeciwko tej agresji, widząc w niej źródło wielu przyszłych nieszczęść Rosji, ale jednocześnie dostrzega też zgubny wymiar współczesnej polityki ukraińskiej, także – jego zdaniem – zanadto nacjonalistycznej. Gdy chodzi o ocenę funkcjonującego aż do dziś prezydenta Putina, to Bykow uznaje go za menedżera bardzo średniej klasy, a ogólnie – za człowieka bez właściwości, przepowiadając mu rychły upadek i emeryturę w jakimś zagranicznym kraju. Najciekawsze fragmenty rozmowy to jednak nie te, w których zostały sformułowane nieurzeczywistnione oczywiście przepowiednie pisarza, lecz te, w których mowa o przeszłych i aktualnych losach Rosji, która na początku XXI wieku znowu okazała się nieprzyjazna dla demokracji i dobrosąsiedzkich stosunków z bliższą i dalszą okolicą. Bykow widzi w tym swoiste rosyjskie "prawa historycznego rozwoju", jednakże jego wizja przyszłych dziejów Ojczyzny jest daleka od fatalizmu i możemy ją nawet nazwać umiarkowanie optymistyczną.