Wheat Production Under Alternative Production Functions
In: The Pakistan development review: PDR, Band 13, Heft 2, S. 222-226
In an earlier study [1, pp.407-415] it was assumed that a
linear production function would be the best to depict the relationship
between wheat production and explanatory variables in the Punjab. After
a careful scrutiny, four of the explanatory variables, viz., area under
Mexican Wheat varieties, area under local wheat, fertilizer application
and rainfall, were employed to explain varia¬tions in wheat production.
As this linear relationship gave a good fit, it was claimed that the
equations, derived from 1967-68 to 1971-72 output and input data, can be
useful in forecasting wheat production in the Punjab for future years
well in advance of actual wheat harvests and, in fact, a forecast of
wheat production in the Punjab for 1973-74 was published [2, pp.
106-112], based on the findings of that model. Whether the linear
production function related the dependent and inde¬pendent variables in
the best possible manner was not tested. The results of our analysis in
the present paper indicated that the re-specification of the
rela¬tionship will be of little use.1 In addition, in an earlier model
the rainfall relevant to wheat production was defined as the total
rainfall during the months of November-January of each wheat season.
Publication of the article con¬taining that model elicited suggestions
that use of seven-month rainfall from July to January (instead of
three-month rainfall used in the model) might improve the results of the
model. Accordingly, it was decided to test that model using