Suchergebnisse

Evidence suggests that people understand qualitatively how tastes change over time, but underestimate the magnitudes. This evidence is limited, however, to laboratory evidence or surveys of reported happiness. We test for such projection bias in field data. Using data on catalog orders of cold-weather items, we find evidence of projection bias over the weather—specifically, people's decisions are overinfluenced by the current weather. Our estimates suggest that if the order-date temperature declines by 30°F, the return probability increases by 3.95 percent. We also estimate a structural model to measure the magnitude of the bias. (JEL D12, L81)

In quick succession, three sets of figures about the possible future of the British economy have been published. In July, the latest in the series of Programme for Growth volumes, describing the research being undertaken in Cambridge under the directorship of Professor J. R. N. Stone, appeared under the title Exploring 1970. The Cambridge calculations (hereafter referred to as SAM—Social Accounting Matrix) start with the economy as it was in 1960 and present a possibility for 1970 which can be expressed in terms of annual compound rates of growth over the decade for sectors of the national product and for particular industries. The National Institute study, published in September as The British Economy in 1975, (hereafter referred to as BECKERMAN) also starts with the actuality of 1960 but extends the look into the future as far as 1975. The National Plan, published in September, and prepared by the Department of Economic Affairs (hereafter called PLAN), takes the actual figures of 1964 as the base and looks forward to 1970.