Suchergebnisse

Članak razmatra uspon, oblike i posledice protesta u nedemokratskim režimima, oslanjajući se na noviju literaturu iz uporedne analize političkih režima i društvenih pokreta. Oblik režima značajno oblikuje izglede za izbijanje protesta, kao i njegove oblike i posledice. Protesti često proizvode bitne promene u personalnom sastavu i politici vlasti, koje značajno utiču na strukturu i delovanje nedemokratskih režima, i ponekad vode promeni režima. Primeri su navedeni iz kasnog komunističkog autoritarizma u Poljskoj i Jugoslaviji, u kojima su dugotrajni protesti doprineli padu režima i države, i postkomunistički autoritarni režimi u Srbiji i Ukrajini koji su više puta uzdrmani a zatim i dokrajčeni "pritiskom odozdo". ; The paper explores the politics of protest in non-democratic regimes using insights from comparative regime analysis and social movement theory. A regime type strongly shapes factors that trigger popular mobilization, the repertories of collective action and their implications. Protest politics may produce a considerable political change, such as policy and personality change in the political establishment, as well as important shifts in the structure and operation of non-democratic regimes, even regime change. The paper provides evidence from the late communist authoritarian Poland and Yugoslavia, in which sustained protests contributed to the collapse of regime and state, and the post-communist competitive authoritarian Serbia and Ukraine, which experience repeated protest waves and were brought down by protest politics.

Gospodarske i društvene krize prilika su za protestne stranke da dignu svoj glas i da se izbore za nove pozicije na političkoj sceni. Mnogi analitičari smatraju da su stranke radikalne desnice dobile zamah upravo na protestima građana protiv globalizacije, ekonomske deprivacije i utjecaja gospodarske krize. Pomnijim proučavanjem radikalizacije politike vidi se da pojednostavljivanje te teze nema naročito čvrsto uporište. U nedostatku jasnih metodologija politolozi i drugi društveni znanstvenici pokušavaju uobličiti teorije zasnovane na empirijskim istraživanjima. Jedan je od čestih teorijskih okvira odnos populističkih stranaka prema socioekonomskom stanju u zemlji. Prema toj tezi, u vremenu globalne krize postotak glasača za radikalne političke opcije raste, većinom iz protesta, a ne antisustavnosti. Ovo izlaganje prati i stanje u Srednjoj Europi, odnosno rezultate ovogodišnjih izbora u Mađarskoj, Latviji i Slovačkoj kao zemljama sa snažnom radikalnom desnicom. Na primjerima tih zemalja nastoji se utvrditi može li se socioekonomska teorija aplicirati ili se radi o većim izazovima liberalnoj demokraciji s krajnjeg desnog pola. ; Economic and social crises provide an opportunity for protest parties to raise their voices and to win new positions in the political arena. Many analysts deem that the parties of the radical Right gained momentum exactly with the protests by citizens against globalisation, economic deprivation and the impact of the economic crisis. A more detailed study of the radicalisation of politics reveals that the simplification of this thesis does not have a particularly strong justification. In the absence of clear methodologies, political scientists and other social scientists seek to formulate theories based on empirical research. One of the frequent theoretical frameworks is the attitude of populist parties toward the socio-economic situation in the country. According to this thesis, in the period of a global crisis, the percentage of voters of radical political options increases, mostly out of protest, and not as an anti-systemic phenomenon. This paper also examines the situation in Central Europe, as well as the outcomes of this year's elections in Hungary, Latvia and Slovakia as countries with a strong radical Right. By analysing the cases of these countries, the author seeks to establish whether the socio-economic theory can be applied, or whether these countries are facing greater challenges to liberal democracy posed by the far-right pole.

Polazeći od dvodimenzionanog razumijevanja povjerenja u političke institucije, u radu provjeravamo prediktivnost povjerenja u vladu i predstavničke institucije i povjerenja u provedbene institucije za objašnjenje glasanja te prosvjednog sudjelovanja, kao i moguću posredujuću ulogu zadovoljstva funkcioniranjem političkog sustava. Rad se temelji na hrvatskim podatcima petog vala Europskog istraživanja vrednota – EIV (European Values Study – EVS, 2017). Pojedinačne povezanosti dvaju oblika povjerenja i dvaju tipova sudjelovanja pokazuju da je izraženije povjerenje u vladu i predstavničke institucije povezano s češćim glasanjem te manjom sklonošću prosvjednom sudjelovanju, dok je povjerenje u provedbene institucije povezano samo s manjom sklonošću prosvjednom sudjelovanju. Ujedno, oba su oblika političkog povjerenja snažno međusobno povezana te praćena većim zadovoljstvom funkcioniranjem političkog sustava, a koje je u slaboj pozitivnoj vezi s glasanjem te u negativnoj sa sklonošću prosvjedima. Multivarijatnom analizom potvrđen je samo samostalan pozitivni doprinos povjerenja u vladu i predstavničke institucije za pojašnjenje glasanja. Rezultate raspravljamo u kontekstu visoke povezanosti dvaju oblika političkog povjerenja u hrvatskim uvjetima te dosadašnjih nalaza o odrednicama glasanja i prosvjednog sudjelovanja kao dvaju oblika političkog sudjelovanja. ; Starting from a two-dimensional understanding of trust in political institutions, the paper examines trust in the government and representative institutions and trust in executive institutions as predictors of voting and protest participation, as well as the possible mediating role of satisfaction with the functioning of the political system. The paper is based on the Croatian data from the fifth wave of the European Values Study (EVS, 2017). Individual associations between the two forms of trust and the two types of participation indicate that greater trust in government and representative institutions is associated with more frequent voting and a lower propensity for protest participation. In contrast, trust in executive institutions is only associated with a lower propensity for protest participation. At the same time, both forms of political trust are strongly interconnected and accompanied with greater satisfaction with the functioning of the political system, which is weakly positively associated with voting and negatively associated with the propensity for protest participation. The multivariate analysis confirmed only the trust in government and representative institutions as a unique positive predictor of voting. The results are discussed in view of the high association between the two forms of political trust in the Croatian context, and the findings to date regarding the determinants of voting and protest participation as two forms of political participation.

Nove stranke, koje su se pojavile nakon pokreta 15-M te kao odgovor na mjere štednje u Španjolskoj, žele se razvijati kao stranke otvorene za sudjelovanje i deliberaciju svih građana. U kojoj se mjeri ostvaruju ti ideali? Cilj je ovog članka opisati i vrednovati procese online deliberacije dviju najvažnijih stranaka u Španjolskoj, Podemos i Barcelona En Comú, na temelju uobičajenih kriterija u literaturi kojima se mjeri online deliberacija. Konkretno, analizirali smo dva prijedloga o kojima se najviše glasovalo na online platformi Plaza Podemos te online razvoj izbornog programa stranke Barcelona En Comú. Provedena je analiza sadržaja 713 objava s online platforme Plaza Podemos i 563 objave koje se tiču izbornog programa stranke Barcelona En Comú. Obje platforme posjeduju strukturne i tehničke kriterije za poticanje deliberacije, ali je vanjski utjecaj vidljiv samo u slučaju stranke Barcelona En Comú. Kvaliteta deliberativne komunikacije je dobra, ali kriteriji refleksivnosti, inkluzije i pluralnosti nisu zadovoljeni. ; The new parties that emerged following the 15-M movement and against the austerity measures in Spain want to build parties open to the participation and deliberation for all the citizenry. To what extent are these ideals being fulfilled? The aim of this article is to describe and assess some of the main online deliberative processes of the two most important parties, Podemos and Barcelona En Comú, following commonly accepted criteria in the literature for measuring online deliberation. Specifically, we have examined the two most-voted proposals from the online platform Plaza Podemos and the online development of the electoral programme of Barcelona En Comú. Thus, we have conducted a content analysis of 713 (Plaza Podemos) and 563 (Barcelona En Comú) posts. Both platforms meet the structural and technical criteria for fostering deliberation, but the external impact is high only in the case of Barcelona En Comú. The deliberative quality of the communication is good but not the criteria of reflexivity, inclusion and plurality.

Starting from a two-dimensional understanding of trust in institutions, we examine the predictability of trust in political institutions and trust in non-political national institutions in explain voting and protest forms of citizen participation in politics, as well as the possible mediating role of satisfaction with the functioning of the political system. The paper is based on the Croatian data of the fifth wave of the European Values Study (EVS, 2018). Individual associations between the two forms of trust and the two types of participation indicate that greater confidence in political institutions is associated with more frequent electoral participation and a lower propensity for protest participation. In contrast, trust in non-political institutions is only associated with less propensity for protest participation. At the same time, both forms of political trust are strongly interconnected and accompanied by greater satisfaction with the functioning of the political system, which is weakly positively associated with voting and negatively associated with a tendency to protest. The multivariate analysis confirmed only the independent positive contribution of trust in political institutions to voting. We discuss the results in the context of the high association between the two forms of political trust in Croatian context, and the findings to date regarding the determinants of voting and protest participation as two forms of citizen participation in politics. ; Polazeći od dvodimenzionanog razumijevanja povjerenja u institucije, u radu provjeravamo prediktivnost povjerenja u političke institucije i povjerenja u nepolitičke nacionalne institucije za objašnjenje glasanja te protestnih oblika sudjelovanja građana u politici, kao i moguću posredujuću ulogu zadovoljstva funkcioniranjem političkog sustava. Rad se temelji na hrvatskim podacima petog vala Europske studije vrednota - ESV (European Values Study - EVS, 2018). Pojedinačne povezanosti dvaju oblika povjerenja i dvaju tipova sudjelovanja ukazuju da je izraženije povjerenje u političke institucije povezano s češćom izbornom participacijom, a manjom sklonošću prosvjednog sudjelovanja, dok je povjerenje u nepolitičke institucije povezano samo s manjom sklonošću prosvjednom sudjelovanju. Ujedno, oba su oblika političkog povjerenja snažno međusobno povezana, te praćena većim zadovoljstvom funkcioniranjem političkog sustava, a koje je u slaboj pozitivnoj vezi s glasanjem, te u negativnoj sa sklonošću prosvjedima. Multivarijatnom analizom potvrđen je samo samostalan pozitivni doprinos povjerenja u političke institucije za pojašnjenje glasanja. Rezultate raspravljamo u kontekstu visoke povezanosti dvaju oblika političkog povjerenja u hrvatskim uvjetima, te dosadašnjih nalaza o odrednicama glasanja i protestnog sudjelovanja kao dvaju oblika sudjelovanja građana u politici.

U ovom se članku istražuje kako birači i političari putem društvenih medija komuniciraju o važnim temama u situacijama koje mobiliziraju veći broj ljudi, kao što su izbori i prosvjedi. U radu se analizira slučaj predsjedničkih izbora u Rumunjskoj 2014. godine, kada su birači imali aktivnu ulogu u promoviranju tema koje kandidati u početku nisu spominjali u svojim kampanjama. Dvije su teme proizišle kao osobito važne iz perspektive birača: sustavna korupcija i optužbe da vlada namjerno ometa proces glasovanja u zajednicama rumunjske dijaspore. Automatska i ručna analiza sadržaja korisničkih komentara i materijala iz kampanje u društvenim medijima otkriva, iako je teško precizno dokazati kauzalnu povezanost, da su zahtjevi birača koji se tiču spomenutih tema imali aktivnu ulogu u promjeni strategija kampanja kandidata. ; This article examines how voters and politicians interact through social media to communicate salient issues in highly mobilising contexts, such as elections and protests. It analyses the case of Romania's 2014 presidential elections, where voters played an active role in promoting themes that candidates had not initially addressed in their campaigns. Two topics emerged as particularly important from the voters' perspective: systemic corruption and accusations of the government deliberately hindering the voting process in Romanian diaspora communities. A mixed approach of automated and manual content analysis of user comments and campaign materials on social media reveals that, while it is difficult to make precise causal claims, voter demands with regards to these topics had an active role in influencing changes in candidates' campaign strategies.

Ovaj rad ispituje odnos između građanskih prosvjeda i društvenih medija iz perspektive istraživačkog programa kolektivnog djelovanja. Dok literatura ukazuje na snažne empirijske dokaze o pozitivnom odnosu između upotrebe društvenih medija i pojave građanskih prosvjeda, teorijsko je podupiranje ovog odnosa osporavano i često neodređeno. Nastojeći pružiti snažniju teorijsku osnovu za taj odnos, ovaj rad istražuje teorije kolektivnog djelovanja fokusirajući se na društvene medije i njihovu ulogu u rješavanju problema kolektivnog djelovanja onih koji se suprotstavljaju službenoj politici. Rad promišlja kako upotreba teorije kolektivnog djelovanja za razumijevanje društvenih medija i prosvjeda može poslužiti boljem razumijevanju pozitivnog odnosa između društvenih medija i pojave građanskih prosvjeda. ; This article examines the relationship between social protest and social media from the theoretical perspective of the Collective Action Research Program. While the literature shows strong empirical evidence for a positive relationship between social media use and incidents of social protest, the theoretical underpinnings of this relationship remain contested and often unspecified. In order to provide a stronger theoretical basis for this relationship this paper explores theories of collective action, focusing on how social media can assist in solving the dissident collective action problem. It argues that using collective action theory to understand social media and protest can better inform our understanding of how and why social media shares a positive relationship with incidents of social protest.

By reporting on some conflicts but not on others, and by representing conflicts they report on in particular ways, the media strongly influence the dynamics and outcomes of democratisation conflicts, and thus also shape the prospects of success of conflict parties. This paper explores the literature on media and conflict by focusing on the ways in which media frame inter-state and civil wars, institutionalised conflicts and social movements in western democracies, and conflicts in nondemocratic and democratising states. Much of the literature discusses the ways in which western media frame foreign conflicts and domestic election campaigns and policy debates, while there is considerably less focus on domestic conflicts in nonwestern settings, such as those that arise during and after transitions from nondemocratic rule. There are only limited attempts to draw parallels between the media coverage of disparate conflicts. In contrast, this study builds upon research findings in these related areas to draw lessons for empirical research of media framing of the contentious dimension of contemporary democratisation. This study concludes that the political context is the main factor that shapes the media framing of various forms of political conflict. Several dimensions of the political context matter in this respect, such as regime type, international (foreign) or domestic perspective, elite consensus or conflict, policy consensus or uncertainty, policy area, more or less institutionalised nature of the political conflict at stake, and the stage of democratisation. Also, the literature suggests that media framing strongly influences political outcomes and thus fosters or undermines democratic institutions in new democracies. .

Using critical theory of media and technology as a theoretical framework, we describe the dialectical interrelation between (media) technology and democratic changes, where new media technology only paved the way to organization and exchange of information during 'Arab Spring', but was not its cause. 'Arab Spring' as the case in point proved a negative correlation between the level of communication technology (new media) and the intensity of protests, according to which a higher level of accessibility to new media led to a lower level of protests. Also, we observe an uneven impact of new media on democratic changes, i.e. internet social networks had a secondary role in creating media news, compared to satellite TV which at an early stage of 'Arab Spring' enabled the actors of online civil society to have an impact on state politics to a large extent. Arab new media cannot yet lead to democratic changes nor explain their causes, but merely alter patterns of mobilization and organization of social and political events. Adapted from the source document.

This paper aims at examining how democratization in post-uprising Egypt remains flawed and the reasons for this failure. As a background, democratization in post-Arab Spring Egypt has collapsed and it seems now merely an illusion. The situation worsened since Egypt's democratically elected President Morsi was expelled from office through a coup, following mass protests demanding Morsi's discharge. Egypt's democratization is hard to achieve due to the shadow of the Pharaoh in Egypt, that is, entrenched ruling elites; Egypt's democratization process can never succeed while Egypt's old ruling elites are reluctant to allow this to happen. ; This paper aims at examining how democratization in post-uprising Egypt remains flawed and the reasons for this failure. As a background, democratization in post-Arab Spring Egypt has collapsed and it seems now merely an illusion. The situation worsened since Egypt's democratically elected President Morsi was expelled from office through a coup, following mass protests demanding Morsi's discharge. Egypt's democratization is hard to achieve due to the shadow of the Pharaoh in Egypt, that is, entrenched ruling elites; Egypt's democratization process can never succeed while Egypt's old ruling elites are reluctant to allow this to happen.

This work analyzes the relation between democracy & political participation, the typology & model of political participation, the findings of the research of political participation in the world (S. Verba, N. H. Nie, 1972; S. H. Barnes, M. Kaase, 1979; & others), & the research of the same phenomenon on a sample of Croatian students. This analysis has shown that today all the elements necessary for a more comprehensive theory of political participation are in place. This theory would enable a more systematic & standardized investigation of this phenomenon in the national & the international context. The article also shows how the nonconventional participation is gaining ground while the conventional is gradually leveling out. Significant are the results of the analysis of the etiology of political participation, particularly the relation between the standard SES model & the model of value orientations (left-right materialism, materialism-postmaterialism, etc). The analysis of the model of participation of Croatian students has shown that the model of 'protest behavior/potential' has a more complex etiology than other models, such as conventional participation & voting in parliamentary elections. Thus, for the 'protest potential' it is necessary to possess a developed civic competence, a critical attitude toward the government's performance, a liberal arts education, etc, while for the conventional participation it is central to have a higher level of political interest. Significant differences between the Croatian students & those from other European countries can be observed regarding the role of value orientations in explaining political participation. 5 Tables, 1 Graph. Adapted from the source document.

This work analyses the relation between democracy and political participation, the typology and model of political participation, the findings of the research of political participation in the world (S. Verba, N. H. Nie, 1972; S. H. Barnes, M. Kaase, 1 979; and others), and the research of the same phenomenon on a sample of Croatian students. This analysis has shown that today all the elements necessary for a more comprehensive theory of political participation are in place. This theory would enable a more systematic and standardized investigation of this phenomenon in the national and the international context. The article also shows how the non- conventional participation is gaining ground while the conventional is gradually levelling out. Significant are the results of the analysis of the etiology of political participation, particularly the relation between the standard SES model and the model of value orientations (left-right materialism, materialism-postrnaterialism, etc.). The analysis of the model of participation of Croatian students has shown that the model of protest behaviour/potential' has a more complex etiology than other models, such as conventional participation and voting in parliamentary elections. Thus, for the "protest potential" it is necessary to possess a developed civic competence, a critical attitude towards the government's performance, a liberal arts education, etc., while for the conventional participation it is central to have a higher level of political interest. Significant differences between the Croatian students and those from other European countries can be observed regarding the role of value orientations in explaining political participation. (SOI : PM: S. 140)