Suchergebnisse

The article identifies the most important controversies related to public opinion polls on electoral preferences, explains their substance, & discusses their impact on the possibility to use information obtained in the surveys. The article further focuses on the importance of surveys for representative democracy, the impact of the publication of opinion polls' results on public opinion, the possibilities of manipulating surveys, the risks related to the growth of research production (high non-response rate & the growth of survey costs, non-transparency of the market, incorrect application of advanced data analyses), the limits to election forecasting, & issues related to the relationship between research & journalism. Opinion polls contribute to shaping the environment for political competition. The nature of their impact is determined by their quality. Serious risks are associated with the possibility for intentional manipulation, poor quality of the survey process, & misinterpretation of results. Knowledge on research, publication of contextual information together with the survey data, & free competition in the market can help reduce the risks. The possibilities for quantification in social research do not remove the obligation to ensure sound theoretical grounding & qualified judgment, which are the prerequisites for the credibility of all conclusions drawn from the data. Tables, Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.

The referendum on the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union was the first -- & thus far the only -- national referendum in the history of both the Czech Republic & Czechoslovakia. Although it was obvious that the majority of the Czech population was in favor of joining the European Union, sociologists could not predict the turnout. The polls had shown that at least 70 percent of the population would vote "Yes." However, as there had been no referendum in the country's history before, there were fears of voter apathy. There was no experience concerning the difference between public opinion polls & the actual results. Regardless of these factors, TNS Factum offered a very accurate prediction of voter turnout & of support for accession. The voting pattern in the actual referendum was firmly correlated with & similar to the voting behavior in the 2002 parliamentary elections. A study on electoral data showed a strong correlation between the support for Koalice (Coalition of liberals & Christian democrats) in the 2002 general election & the pro-EU voles in the 2003 referendum. The Czech referendum was not an exception compared to developments in other post-communist states. Nevertheless, there is a clear difference between east European referenda & past EU referenda in Western Europe. The latter were characterized by higher voter turnout & by relatively less enthusiasm concerning EU accession. In this respect, the post-communist referenda were the inverse. They displayed low voter turnout & high support for accession; hence, they demonstrate the differing perceptions of the east European populations & their western counterparts. 8 Tables, 7 Graphs, 14 References. Adapted from the source document.

The article analyzes the reasons for two key defeats of the ODS (Civic Democratic Party) in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in 1998 & 2002. It is proved that the ODS was not a modern right-wing political party at least up to the 2002 election year. For this reason it did not efficiently cover the wide center-right segment of the political spectrum. Public opinion surveys demonstrated that there was a long-term right-wing orientation & a strong center in the Czech Republic. Nevertheless, the ODS did not respond to the demands of the center- right segment by a corresponding offer. The modernization of the 0DS presupposes an overall change of its strategy, which would include not only a conception of people's capitalism but also a whole complex of changes: a more amicable approach to the European Union, to ecological problems, & to social issues, In addition, the party should take a firm stance against non-transparent clientelism & corruption & strengthen pluralism inside the party. 34 References. Adapted from the source document.

Drawing upon earlier work by the author, the text seeks to help answering the question of the sources of fear regarding the future integration of Slovakia. By looking at the roots & substance of this fear, the author aims to evaluate whether it has become unsubstantiated since the 2002 general election. Even though Dzurinda's 1998 government has fallen short of the voters' expectations, this has never been true in the foreign & security policy where the government delivered on its promises. The first chapter aims to identify the key factors, having the greatest effect on the policy- & decision-making of Slovakia's political elite between 1998 & 2002. These factors have been crucial in extending the country's image as being the most problematic out of the Visegrad group. The second chapter deals with Slovakia's internal political watershed: the 1998 general election. The problems weakening & ultimately threatening the ruling coalition from within are analyzed as well. The third chapter discusses economic & social aspects of Slovakia's post-1998 domestic development. The rather unbalanced performance & the lack of achievements are examined as the causes of doubts about the translation of Slovakia's integration ambitions into practical outcomes. Finally, the last chapter describes the societal perceptions in Slovakia as reflected in public opinion polls prior to the 2002 general election, summing up the election results. In answer to the question posed at the beginning, the author closes his analysis claiming that the current level of preparations for Slovakia's integration into both the European & Trans-Atlantic structures guarantees that the country will successfully join both. Despite the lack of any bulletproof guarantee of the stability of the country's post-2002 political scene, & in spite of potential change of the government or early elections, Slovakia's full integration into the European & Euro-Atlantic institutional structures in mid-2004 cannot be prevented. Slovakia will join along with its Visegrad partners. References. Adapted from the source document.

The aim of this article is to analyze the attitudes of the main political parties in the Czech Republic towards the European Union. A special emphasis is put on the presentation of these attitudes in the pre-referendum period & on the levels of support for membership achieved among the parties' supporters. This topic is analysed through the theoretical lens of "europeanization," an approach which examines the impact on domestic (national) policies & political systems of EU policies & processes. This theoretical perspective is usually applied to current member states but has been increasingly extended to candidate countries in the pre-accession period as well. In the period after the first democratic elections of 1990, the "European" debate among Czech political parties has intensified & shifted from the clear initial "yes" to membership to more complex & qualitative questions. By the time of the national EU referendum, (June 2003) the impact of" europeanization" was manifested by the presence of a significant number of EU-related topics in the political parties' agenda. The authors have utilized a range of political geography, sociology, & political science methods to demonstrate a high correlation between the EU referendum results & the levels of the partisan support for the parties favoring membership in the EU. According to the available empirical data from various public opinion surveys, the support for membership among the voters of the Social Democratic Party (CSSD), Civic Democratic Party (ODS), Christian Democratic Party (KDU-CSL) & Freedom Union (US-DEU) ranged from 82 to 92 %. On the contrary, the position of the Communist Party (KSCM) was clearly the opposite. In addition to the political orientation of the voters, other factors which have influenced the voting results were examined. These included such factors as regional unemployment rate, education, wage levels as well as other political-geographical aspects. References. Adapted from the source document.