Regional differences are one of the most important forms of expression of uneven economic development. The unevenness of the level of development in the regions in the Republic of Serbia is one of the most complex development problems. The current economic policy has caused that the gap between rich and poor regions is increasing in Serbia. Different demographic development of the regions is consequences of differences of economic development. In this paper, the authors analyze the quantitative and qualitative population's characteristics. Attention is given to the implementation of VIKOR methods in order to rank the regions of Serbia according to the level of demographic development. Ranking regions by multiple criteria simultaneously, contributes to the determination of the real situation in terms of regional differences. The authors demonstrate that the multi-criteria analysis could be applied to determine the demographic disparities between the levels of development of the regions. The criteria and their importance could be changed depending on the consideration of demographic, economic and social development. Also, other methods of multi-criteria analysis in the evaluation of the demographic development of the region or state is applied.
Sistem nacionalnih računa (SNR) nastao je i više puta unapreĎivan na meĎunarodnom nivou sa ciljem da omogući, izmeĎu ostalog, što potpuniju osnovu za analizu ekonomske politike. Polazeći od činjenice da će se u Srbiji nakon pribliţavanja standardima Evropske unije izraĎivati celokupan SNR, što trenutno nije slučaj, i od teze holandskog autora Bosa da će vlade sve manje koristiti SNR, u radu je ispitano koju ulogu nacionalni računi trenutno imaju u analizi ekonomske politike. Cilj istraţivanja je bio da se utvrde načini unapreĎenja upotrebe nacionalnih računa u Srbiji nakon njegove dopune, po oblastima upotrebe. Korišćenjem postojećih podataka, intervjua i kvantitativne analize, to jest ekonometrijske analize vremenskih serija, utvrĎeno je da se u tri oblasti upotrebe SNR, analizi putem indikatora, analizi tokova sredstava i makroekonometrijskom modeliranju, moţe ostvariti napredak već i sada, a posebno nakon dopune statističke produkcije. Posebno je vaţno da će biti moguće unaprediti makroekonometrijsko modeliranje u Srbiji, što je pokazano na primeru funkcije potrošnje. Komparativna analiza imovinskog efekta u Srbiji, Sloveniji, Češkoj i Holandiji pokazala je da varijabla stambene imovine nije značajna u funkciji potrošnje u Srbiji jer ne dominiraju hipoteke u svojinskoj strukturi stambenog fonda i nema finansijskih inovacija kao u razvijenim zemljama. SNR i njegovo stalno unapreĎivanje je potreban ali ne i dovoljan uslov dobre ekonomske politike. SNRje bio dovoljno razvijen za analizu za potrebe voĎenja ekonomske politike u sprečavanju neravnoteţa koje su u poslednjoj krizi imale udela, ali je tek analiza podataka nacionalnih računa eks-post omogućila unapreĎenje analize putem indikatora i standarda na osnovu kojih se mogu sprečiti neki budući mehurovi i neravnoteţe. ; The System of National Accounts (SNA) was designed and has been improved several times on the international level with the aim to provide the best possible complete basis for the economic policy analysis. Starting from the fact that after the transition to the standards of the European Union in Serbia the whole system of national accounts will be compiled, which currently is not the case, and from the thesis of the Dutch author Bos that SNA will be less used by the governments, in this dissertation the current role of the SNA in economic policy analysis has been analyzed. The aim of the research was to establish the ways of improvement in different areas of the use of SNA in Serbia, after its completion. By using the existing data, interview and quantitative i.e. econometric analysis of the time series, it has been concluded that in three areas of the use of SNA - indicator analysis, flow of funds analysis and macroeconometric modeling, the improvement is possible even now, and especially after the completion of statistical production. It is especially important that it will be possible to improve the macroeconomic modeling in Serbia, which has been shown on the example of consumption function. The comparative analysis of the wealth effect in Serbia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and the Netherlands has shown that the housing wealth variable is not significant in consumption function in Serbia, because mortgages are not dominant in the ownership structure of the housing wealth, and there are no financial innovations present, as it is the case in the developed countries. The SNA and its constant improvement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a good economic policy. The SNA has been developed enough for the economic policy analysis to prevent imbalances which took part in the last crisis, but only the ex post analysis of the SNA data has enabled improvement of the indicator analysis and standards as the basis which may prevent future bubbles and imbalances.
The aim of the research was to determine the effects of globalization on the international business Serbia, as well as the contribution of FDI to the current socio-economic development of Serbia in the process of joining the European Union and anticipating numerous challenges. The entire research is based on the simultaneous use of different methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and synthesis and comparison. Analysis of the situation in the domestic economy, it was concluded that met only some of the prerequisites for a higher level of foreign direct investment because foreign direct investments in Serbia have not yielded the expected results. The results show that the process of priva-tization contributed to the revival of several forms of investment: domestic investors, foreign direct investment, loans and capital mar-kets. To unapredula and improve the investment climate, it is necessary to remove administrative barriers to foreign investment through amen-dments to existing legislation, the establishment and strengthening of relevant institutions, as well as the further development of infrastructu-re. With this in mind it is necessary to develop new comparative advan-tages in exports, based on technological modernization of the economy and improving the concept of education, management and organizatio-nal knowledge and experience. The results provide the identification of all the advantages and disadvantages inherent in the globalization of the economy and foreign direct investment.
Each day we make decisions, draw conclusions or resolve problems. The environment in which we make decisions is complex and dynamic and yet it influences the whole process as much as one's knowledge, experience, etc. In these situations, the decision making analysis stands out which provides a logic base for defining possible alternatives and the choice of an optimal option from the possible solutions. The decision making analysis helps the decision maker to choose the optimal option in line with his knowledge, reasoning, beliefs and preferences. When there are several criteria the decision making is ambiguous and one needs to find the optimal or the most efficient solution. The multi-criteria decision making can be multi-purposeful. In case the alternatives are explicitly defined and quantified we are dealing with the multi-attribute decision making. The criteria values for the analyzed alternatives can be qualitative and quantitative; therefore, the qualitative ones have to be quantified. Deciding on the location is one of the key elements of logistics and of the importance of the decision making process used by the companies in order to determine where to locate the facility is a decision of crucial importance to all logistic elements and the entire business development of the company. Further on, the contemporary economic, competitive and technological conditions and the business environment comprise a dynamic category, so the currently optimal location may not be optimal in the future. Companies use qualitative and quantitative criteria while deciding on the location of the factory. When deciding on the location of the factory one conducts a detailed analysis due to the dynamic business environment. Constant changes in the environment influence business adjustments. On the contrary, the logistic facilities and their locations are static and are not subject to alteration in a short period of time and in such a way respond to the business environment changes. While making such a decision one needs to use new methodologies and contemporary tools as a decision making support in order to adequately respond to the business environment changes and secure the high quality decision making by taking into account quantitative and qualitative criteria which are important for making a decision on a choice of a location. From the very beginning, local self-governments, worldwide as well as in Serbia, had different roles in the economic development. Local self-governments usually dealt with administrative procedures with no active part in the economic development. By establishing legal grounds local self-governments started improving the business environment and providing support to the business community, but also actively attracting foreign direct investments which have proven to be the key activity of the local economic development. Identification and understanding of the industrial location decision making process within the companies has been identified as a crutial activity which the local self-governments can use in improving the business environment and recruitment of direct investments. On the basis on the prioritization of the quantitative and qualitative decision making criteria in the process of selection a location, local self-governments can improve their business environment if resources are being used optimally and in such a way they support the local economic development by assisting the business community and attracting direct investments. In this paper we established a model which, using the method for decision making in the case of optimization of the industrial location decision making, enables efficient use of the resources of local economic development. The model will enable the identification of criteria / determinant of locations that should be invested in order to promote local economic development, on the basis of a comparison of local governments and types of potential investors. Use of standard methods of multiattribute analysis gives the possibility of a subjective approach to the researcher who must determine in advance the criteria weights, while the application of the model presented in this paper avoids the subjectivity and objectifies the process of preference, a combination of criteria DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis,) and multiattribute analysis methods (AHP, ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, TOPSIS). Within the dissertation, survey conducted, analysed local governments (alternatives) in terms of fulfilling the criteria (location determinants), within which each local government alone determines the criteria weight based on survey of types of potential investors. A comparative analysis of the results of these studies, where other various methods for decision making can be also used, identified the best method, among selected that are the best known and most used, and the result of the dissertation will determine the importance of the location determinants, which will enable to policymakers in field of local economic development, investment promotion and improving business environment at all levels, through the use of the proposed model of efficient planning, the opportunity to efficiently and cost-effectively use the resources at their disposal.
Doktorska disertacija nastoji da objasni rezultate višestranačkih parlamentarnih izbora u Srbiji od 1990. godine do prve mirne smene vlasti 2000. godine sa stanovišta informisanosti publike o izbornim opcijama. U njoj je potvrđena generalna hipoteza da su informativni televizijski programi o izborima za Skupštinu Srbije tokom 1990-tih godina onemogućavali slobodnu i poštenu utakmicu izbornih rivala. Umesto da biračima ponude adekvatne informacije kao osnovu za racionalan izbor, oni su sistematski favorizovali jednog izbornog učesnika u odnosu na druge. U radu se utvrđuju glavne medijske strategije uticaja na mišljenje birača na osnovu empirijske analize televizijske prezentacije izbora u periodu 1990-2000. godina. Kvantitativno-kvalitativna analiza sadržaja obuhvata redovne informativne programe i specijalizovane izborne programe proizvedene tokom kampanje za izbore za Skupštinu Srbije 1990, 1992, 1993, 1997. i 2000. godine. Analiza je fokusirana na utvrđivanje centralne strategije medijske prezentacije izbora u svakom pojedinačnom ciklusu, identifikovanje slike društvene i političke realnosti kao konteksta u koji se smeštaju informacije o aktivnostima izbornih učesnika, utvrdjivanje glavne teme-dileme izborne kampanje u odnosu na koju se pozicioniraju izborni učesnici i utvrđivanje televizijskih imidža glavnih izbornih rivala. Analizi medijske slike izbora prethodi razmatranje političkog, pravnog i medijskog konteksta u kome su izbori održani. Analiza je potvrdila radne hipoteze da je izborno izveštavanje državne televizije RTS (RTB) od 1990. do 2000. godine podsticalo biračku podršku za vladajuću stranku – Socijalističku partiju Srbije (SPS) ili njenu koaliciju – sistematskom diskriminacijom njenih izbornih rivala; da su specijalizovani izborni programi državne televizije favorizovali interese vladajuće partije SPS ili njene koalicije u odnosu na interese drugih izbornih učesnika i favorizovali interese izbornih učesnika u odnosu na interese birača; i da je redovno TV izveštavanje o aktuelnim neizbornim događajima omogućavalo da izborne poruke jednog izbornog učesnika budu lakše prihvatljive za birače od poruka njegovih izbornih rivala. Način na koji je izveštavanje o izborima kontekstuirano u specifičnu sliku neizbornih događaja identifikovan je kao ključna dugoročna strategija uticaja na birače, zajedno sa medijskim definisanjem smisla izbora u skladu sa interesima jednog izborno učesnika - poželjnog izbornog pobednika. Doktorska disertacija je potvrdila teorijsku hipotezu da kulturološke studije nude pogodnu teorijsku i analitičku osnovu za istraživanje uloge medija u izbornoj komunikaciji u Srbiji tokom 1990-tih godina. ; The doctoral thesis aims to explain the results of multiparty parliamentary elections in Serbia from 1990 until the first peaceful change in power in 2000 from the standpoint of information about election options available to voters. The thesis confirms a general hypothesis that the information TV programs about elections for the Parliament of Serbia during the 1990-ies prevented a free and fair competition of election rivals. Instead of offering adequate information to voters as a basis for a rational choice, TV programs systematically favored one election participant over others. The thesis identifies the main media strategies of influencing the opinion of voters on the basis of empirical analysis of television presentation of elections in the period 1990-2000. The quantitative-qualitative content analysis is applied to regular news programs and specialized electoral broadcasts produced during campaigns for elections for the Parliament of Serbia in 1990, 1992, 1993, 1997 and 2000. The analysis is focused on identifying the central strategy of the media presentation in each election cycle, the picture of social and political reality as a context for the information on activities of election participants, the main issue of the election campaign and TV images of the main election rivals. The analysis of the media picture of the elections is preceded by a review of political, legal and media context in which the elections took place. The analysis confirmed the working hypothesis that the election coverage of the state television RTS (RTB) from 1990 until 2000 mobilized the voters' support for the ruling party – Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) or its coalition – by a systematic discrimination of its election rivals; that the specialized programs of the state television favored the interests of the ruling party SPS or its coalition in comparison to interests of other election contestants as well as the interests of election participants over the interests of voters; and that the regular Serbian television news reporting about non-election events made the messages of one election participant more easily acceptable by voters than the messages of other contestants. The way the coverage of election events was placed into a specific picture of non-election events is identified as the key long-term strategy for influencing the voters' decision, together with the media definition of the meaning of the election which was in accord with the interests of one election participant – the preferred election winner. The thesis confirmed a theoretical hypothesis that cultural studies offer a convenient theoretical and analytical basis for studying the role of the media in election communication in Serbia during the 1990's.
The central question in teaching the subject of confidential information is to define the borderline between the citizens' interest in learning certain information ("the right to know") and the general interest of keeping certain information confidential - in a word, between the justifiable and unjustifiable secrets. This is an area which includes parts of administrative and public media law and the theory of public law. This paper is limited to the analysis of the issue of the classified information in state possession (state, military and official secret) on three levels: theoretical, comparative and on the level of Croatian legislation. The essential elements of the theoretical concept of confidentiality are: the possession of the information kept secret from others; deliberate concealment; social context. A secret can have different forms: strategic, private, pressing, sequential, collective, petty, deep, simple, exploited and as conspiratorial as a plot. The theoretical analysis of confidentiality deals with the questions of contemporary forms of the manipulation of information (defining agendas and priorities, "quantitative overload", lobbying) and with the generic issue of the process of decision-making, lies and halftruths. In the end, the author offers certain elements for the legislation regarding classified information. (SOI : PM: S. 197)
Tax analysis and forecasting of revenues are of paramount importance to ensure fiscal policy's viability and sustainability. However, the measures taken to contain the spread of the recent pandemic pose an unprecedented challenge to established models and approaches. This paper proposes a model to forecast tax revenues in Bulgaria for the fiscal years 2020–2022 built in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's recommendations on a dataset covering the period between 1995 and 2019. The study further discusses the actual trustworthiness of official Bulgarian forecasts, contrasting those figures with the model previously estimated. This study's quantitative results both confirm the pandemic's assumed negative impact on tax revenues and prove that econometrics can be tweaked to produce consistent revenue forecasts even in the relatively-unexplored case of Bulgaria offering new insights to policymakers and advocates. ; Porezna analiza i predviđanje prihoda je od izuzetne (najveće) važnosti kako bi se osigurala održivost fiskalne politike. Međutim, mjere poduzete za suzbijanje širenja nedavne pandemije predstavljaju neviđeni izazov za ustaljene modele i pristupe. Ovaj rad predlaže model za predviđanje poreznih prihoda u Bugarskoj za fiskalne godine 2020-2022. izrađen u skladu s preporukama Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda o skupu podataka koji pokriva razdoblje između 1995. i 2019. Studija dalje razmazra stvarnu pouzdanost službenih bugarskih prognoza, suprotstavljajući te brojke odgovarajućim procijenjenim modelima. Kvantitativni rezultati ove studije potvrđuju pretpostavljeni negativni uticaj pandemije na porezne prihode i dokazuju da se statistika može prilagoditi kako bi se proizvele dosljedne prognoze prihoda čak i u relativno neistraženom slučaju Bugarske koja nudi nove uvide kreatorima politike i zagovornicima.
