Suchergebnisse

Der Sammelband enthaelt einen einleitenden Beitrag, in dem grundsaetzlich auf den Einsatz quantifizierender Methoden in der Geschichtswissenschaft eingegangen wird, und weitere Aufsaetze, in denen die Anwendung verschiedener quantitativer Methoden auf jeweils konkrete Fragestellungen demonstriert wird. Die Analyse kirchlich-administrativer Daten mittels der quantifizierenden historischen Demographie, die Erstellung eines Schichtenmodells fuer die Wandlungen in der Sozialstruktur einer raeumlich geschlossenen Gesellschaft in der Uebergangsphase zum Industriezeitalter, die historisch-empirische Elitenforschung am Beispiel der Reichstagskandidaten, die zyklenhafte Entwicklung der deutschen Wirtschaft im 19. Jahrhundert, die quantitative Inhaltsanalyse am Beispiel der handelspolitischen Petitionen an die Frankfurter Nationalversammlung und die quantitative Analyse innerstaedtischer Standortmuster mit Hilfe stochastischer Modelle bilden die jeweiligen thematischen und methodischen Schwerpunkte. (KS)

1. Introduction -- 2. People and Techniques in Budgeting -- 2.1. The effectiveness of budget control systems -- 2.2. The wood and the trees -- 2.3. Potential psychological gains in using quantitative methods -- 2.4. Quantitative methods in assessing the social aspects of a control system -- 2.5. Conclusion -- 3. Balanced Transfer Values in Scheduling, Costing and Recompensing -- 3.1. Extended introduction and summary -- 3.2. Linear programming and accountancy -- 3.3. Models of the values as well as the measures of flows -- 3.4. Linking objects: transferrers of value -- 3.5. Balancing procedures: evaluation of intracompany trade -- 3.6. Degrees of freedom and channels of valuation -- 3.7. Ancillary interrelations in costing and recompensing -- 3.8. Recapitulation -- 4. Ratio Network Models and their Application in Budgeting -- 4.1. Ratio network models -- 4.2. Budgeting with the help of the ratio network method -- 5. The Development of a Budgeting Model -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. The preliminary phase -- 5.3. The conceptual side -- 5.4. The general model -- 5.5. The first phase -- 5.6. The second phase -- 5.7. Conclusions with respect to the implementation -- Appendix 5.1. Mathematical description of the generalized model -- 6. Cost Accounting, Planning and Budgeting -- 6.1. Cost functions and product costing -- 6.2. The relations between production centres -- 6.3. Alternative production methods of economically homogeneous products -- 6.4. Planning, linear programming and unit costs -- 6.5. Planning, budgeting and costs -- 6.6. Example -- 7. Stochastic Budgeting -- 7.1. Introduction -- 7.2. Probability distributions -- 7.3. Some specific distributions -- 7.4. Relations between the variables -- 7.5. Computer program -- 7.6. Interval boundaries and policy -- 7.7. Concluding remarks -- Appendix 7.1. Flow-chart of computer program -- Appendix 7.2. Interval exploitation budget -- Appendix 7.3. A definition of subjective probability -- 8. Variance Analysis, Flexible Budgeting and Responsibility Accounting -- 8.1. Classical variance analysis -- 8.2. The flexible-budgeting approach to variance analysis -- 8.3. Multi-stage, multidimensional variance analysis -- Appendix 8.1. Two-stage, two-dimensional variance analysis with flexible budgeting -- Appendix 8.2. Algebra and numerical example of two-stage, three-dimensional variance analysis with flexible budgeting -- 9. Where Short-Term Budget Meets Long-Term Plan -- 9.1. Next year's budget in conflict with first year of long-term plan -- 9.2. Using budget pattern for disaggregation of long-term plan -- 9.3. The multiproportional RAS algorithm -- 9.4. Taking account of prior information.

This article outlines the present state of the debate on quantitative history in France. J.-L. Robert observes a transformation of "classic" approaches to social and economic history as a result of new statistical tools, now available to historians. He advocates a careful methodological assessment of these techniques of research and discusses in detail problems like the stability of indicators over time, the application of sampling-techniques, and the limits of quantification in history.

In recent years there has been an upsurge in what has come to be called "quantitative history." Despite the enthusiasm for this approach, however, some of its critics have validly claimed that its payoffs have all too often failed to live up to its promises of new and more accurate findings. Perhaps a central reason for this criticism is that although the quantitative historian may have been sufficiently thorough in collecting his data, he has often failed to apply to them the sensitive techniques of modern data analysis. Rather, he has continued to rely on more traditional methods of description such as means and percentages. As a result, quantitative works are often long on tables and short on analysis.