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Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- Taxes and the Economy: An Economic Analysis of the Top Tax Rates -- Since 1945( -- Summary -- Top Tax Rates Since 1945 -- Top Tax Rates and the Economy -- Saving and Investment -- Productivity Growth -- Real Per Capita GDP Growth -- Top Tax Rates and the Distribution of Income -- Concluding Remarks -- Appendix. Data and Supplemental Analysis -- End Notes -- Tax Rates and Economic Growth( -- Summary -- Short-Run Counter-Cyclical Effects versus Long-Run Growth -- Historical Comparisons of Tax Rates, Labor Supply, Savings, and Growth Rates -- Labor Force Participation -- Savings and Investment and GDP Growth -- Review of Evidence on Factors Affecting Growth -- Labor Supply6 -- Savings and Investment Response9 -- Technological Progress, Innovation, and Small Business -- Dynamic Revenue Estimating -- End Notes -- An Analysis of the "Buffett Rule"( -- Summary -- Individual Income Taxes and Payroll Taxes -- The Simple Buffett Rule -- The Buffett Rule with a Broader Measure of Income and Taxes -- Issues -- Small Business and Job Creation -- Saving and Investment -- Concluding Remarks -- Appendix. Data -- End Notes -- The 2001 and 2003 Bush Tax Cuts -- and Deficit Reduction( -- Summary -- The Economic Environment -- The Budgetary Environment -- The Bush Tax Cuts -- Revenue Cost from Extending the Bush Tax Cut Provisions -- Distributional Effects of the Bush Tax Cut Provisions -- Options Regarding the Bush Tax Cuts -- Long-Term Economic Effects of Tax -- Rate Increases -- Work Effort -- Saving and Investment -- Concluding Remarks -- Appendix. The Suits Index -- End Notes -- The Economic Effects of Capital Gains Taxation* -- Summary -- Introduction -- How Capital Gains Are Taxed -- Capital Gains Tax Rates and Tax Revenues -- Tax Rates -- Tax Revenues -- Behavioral Responses to Capital Gains Tax Rate Changes

Interest rates and the spreads between interest rates are widely regarded as useful indicators of the future level of economic activity. This paper shows that when these series are divided into (i) an ordinary time series process and (ii) the effects of extraordinary disturbances, only the extraordinary disturbances predict economic activity. These disturbances are associated with periods of monetary policy intervention. Most of the predictive power is in contractionary disturbances that have persistent effects over time. The results imply that the predictive power of interest rates comes primarily from periods of contractionary monetary policy and is not due to ordinary movements in interest rates.

The transmission process from policy-controlled interest rates to bank lending rates deserves reconsideration owing to the implementation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. Additional attention to the subject in Austria is due to several large banks which, in 2002, have been charged for not passing on interest rate decreases to their customers. I examine dynamic responses of commercial credit rates to changes in key policy rates and money market rates. Using Austrian data from 1995 to 2002, I show that strength and speed of interest rate transmission depend on whether rates go up or down. With the EMU, asymmetry in interest rate transmission partly declined. The speed of transmission and the relative importance of policy and money market rates for commercial credit rates also were affected.