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"The Role of Analogies in Crisis Decision Making" published on by Oxford University Press.

It is broadly assumed that political elites (e.g. party leaders) regularly rely on heuristics in their judgments or decision-making. In this article, I aim to bring together and discuss the scattered literature on this topic. To address the current conceptual unclarity, I discuss two traditions on heuristics: (1) the heuristics and biases (H&B) tradition pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky and (2) the fast and frugal heuristics (F&F) tradition pioneered by Gigerenzer et al. I propose to concentrate on two well-defined heuristics from the H&B tradition—availability and representativeness—to empirically assess when political elites rely on heuristics and thereby understand better their judgments and decisions. My review of existing studies supports the notion that political elites use the availability heuristic and possibly the representativeness one for making complex decisions under uncertainty. It also reveals that besides this, we still know relatively little about when political elites use which heuristic and with what effect(s). Therefore, I end by proposing an agenda for future research.

AbstractPeople often use cognitive and affective heuristics when judging the likelihood of a health outcome and making health decisions. However, little research has examined how heuristics shape risk perceptions and behavior among people who make decisions on behalf of another person. We examined associations between heuristic cues and caregivers' perceptions of their child's asthma risk, the frequency of caregivers' asthma management behaviors, and child health outcomes. We used Ipsos KnowledgePanel to recruit 814 U.S. adult caregivers of children with asthma of the age <18 years. Participants completed a survey at baseline (T1) and 3 months later (T2). Caregivers who, at T1, reported greater negative affect about their child's asthma (affect heuristic cue), greater ease of imagining their child experiencing asthma symptoms (availability heuristic cue), and greater perceived similarity between their child and a child who has ever experienced asthma symptoms (representativeness heuristic cue) reported statistically significantly (p < 0.05) higher interpersonal perceived risk of their child having an exacerbation or uncontrolled asthma at T1. They also indicated at T2 that their child had poorer asthma control and more frequent exacerbations. Greater T1 negative affect was associated with more frequent T2 actions to reduce inflammation, manage triggers, and manage symptoms, and with poorer T2 child health outcomes. Heuristic cues are likely important for interpersonal—not just personal—risk perceptions. However, the interrelationship between caregivers' ratings of heuristic cues (in particular, negative affect) and risk judgments may signify a struggle with managing their child's asthma and need for extra support from health care providers or systems.

This study analyses heuristic factors affecting investor sentiment and investment decision-making in the Indian stock market. A quantitative approach is formulated with the questionnaire design for the collection of primary data regarding investor sentiment, representativeness heuristic bias, overconfidence and availability bias. The data are collected from the structured questionnaires from individual investors. The collected data were analysed using partial least square structural equation modelling to examine the relationship between the constructs: investor sentiment, representativeness heuristic bias, overconfidence and availability bias. This paper provides empirical insights into the association of heuristic factors that positively influence investor sentiment and investment decision-making. It encourages investors to make reasonable choices and to control and understand their risk. The study sheds light on the impact of investor sentiment on investment decision-making and its antecedent. It shows that investors depend on sentiment when making investment choices. Policymakers should provide consumers with knowledge and appreciation of the correct stock choice; various campaigns considering the different groups of investors will benefit decision-makers and institutional financial practitioners. This paper allows investors to pick the proper investment assistance to avoid making wrong decisions that arise as an outcome of the attitude of investors.

Using two surveys, we study how respondents process visual cues to identify the political orientation (left- vs. right-wing) of members of the French National Assembly (referred to as "deputies"), based on official photographs only, to test the type of heuristic that they use. We first confirm that respondents outperform random guesses. Second, we find that their categorizations correlate with observable characteristics (gender, tie color, jewelry) and subjective assessments of deputies' personality traits (attractiveness, competence, trustworthiness). Third, the objective visual cues that respondents use are consistent with the actual characteristics of left- and right-wing deputies, and respondents mistakenly react to subjective personality traits that differ little across the two groups of deputies. Fourth, left- and right-wing respondents use the same cues in the same way, attractiveness being the only exception. Fifth, the magnitude of the marginal impact of a characteristic on the probability of a respondent categorizing a photograph as left- or right-wing increases strictly with the representativeness of that characteristic. Finally, we find evidence that some characteristics correlate with categorization errors. Findings 1, 2, 4, and the finding that respondents use cues in the correct way are consistent with both Bayesian behavior and the representativeness heuristic. Findings 5, 6, and the finding that respondents react to subjective cues that do not differ across groups are at odds with Bayesian inference but consistent with the representativeness heuristic suggested by Kahneman and Tversky (1972) and recently modelled by Gennaioli and Shleifer (2010), and Bordalo et al. (forthcoming). ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

In the present study it was shown that both decision heuristics and social value orientation play important roles in the building of preferences. This was revealed in decision tasks in which participants were deciding about candidates for a job position. An eye-tracking equipment was applied in order to register participants' information acquisition. It was revealed that participants performing well on a series of heuristics tasks (availability, representativeness, anchoríng & adjustment, and attribution) including a confidence judgment also behaved more accurately than low performers in the fulfillment of the preference tasks. It was also established that the high performers were not as influenced by whether uncertainty was presented in terms of probabilities or in terms of frequencies as was the low performers. With regard to social value orientation the results revealed that decision processing differences were more systematic between cooperators and competitors than between cooperators and individualists. Also, the cooperators did not seem to attend more to proenvironmental goals than to profit goals in the evaluation of the candidates. Finally, it was shown that accountable cooperators invested more time in their decisions than those that were not accountable, and that no such difference was observed between accountable and not accountable competitors or individualists.

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 Exemplification in Communication -- Conceptual Considerations -- Definition of the Exemplification Process -- Exemplification of Known Event Populations -- Exemplification of Unknown Event Populations -- Exemplification in Different Domains of Communication -- Exemplification in Personal Experience -- The Interface Between Direct and Mediated Experience -- 2 Exemplification in Practice -- American News -- News Magazines -- Television News -- Media Comparison -- Non-American News and Advertising -- Television-News Magazines -- Television Commercials -- Magazine Advertisements -- Comparison of Information Domains -- De Facto Exemplification in Fiction and in Quasi-Fiction -- 3 Information Processing -- The Function of Schemata -- Heuristics and Their Influence -- The Representativeness Heuristic -- The Availability Heuristic -- Vividness and Salience -- Chronic Accessibility -- Emotion as a Mediator -- Empathic and Counterempathic Reactivity -- Differently Diminishing Accessibilities -- Contingency Processing -- The Informative Function -- Affect Enhancement -- Model-Observer Affinity -- 4 Exemplification Effects of the News -- Foci of Exploration -- The Research Evidence -- Exemplar-Counterexemplar Distributions -- Base-Rate Influence -- Citation as Exemplar Enhancement -- Qualitatively Distorted Exemplification -- Emotional Displays in Exemplars -- Threatening Images in Exemplification -- Effects of Innocuous Image -- Incidental Pictorial Exemplification -- 5 Exemplification Effects of Fiction and Quasi-Fiction -- Correlational Demonstrations -- Experimental Demonstrations -- 6 Toward Exemplification Literacy -- Exemplification Literacy for Information Providers -- Exemplification Literacy for the Citizenry -- Closing Remarks -- References -- Author Index -- Subject Index.

AbstractWe propose that individual differences in the value placed on the principle of moderation exist and influence many aspects of consumer decision-making. The idea that moderation is an important guiding norm of human behavior is prevalent throughout history and an explicit theme in many philosophies, religions, and cultures. Yet, moderation has not been studied as an individual-level determinant of consumer behavior. We develop a scale that measures the degree to which individuals have a Preference for Moderation (PFM). The PFM scale predicts consequential behavior in many decision contexts. We first report on scale development, including the generation and selection of items. We then report analyses showing that PFM is distinct from several popular individual-difference variables. Related to cultural background, PFM reliably predicts the use of compromise (study 1) and balancing (vs. highlighting) strategies (study 2), as well as various decision-making behaviors, including reliance on the representativeness heuristic (study 3), self-reported financial habits and outcomes (studies 4–5), real-world online-reviewing behavior (study 6), and split-ticket voting behavior in the 2018 US midterm elections (study 7).