Suchergebnisse

Do politicians use the representativeness heuristic when making judgements, that is, when they appraise the likelihood or frequency of an outcome that is unknown or unknowable? Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that facilitate judgements and decision making. Oftentimes, heuristics are useful, but they may also lead to systematic biases that can be detrimental for decision making in a representative democracy. Thus far, we lack experimental evidence on whether politicians use the representativeness heuristic. To contribute to and extend the existing literature, we develop and conduct a survey experiment with as main participants Dutch elected local politicians from the larger municipalities (n = 211). This survey experiment examines whether politician participants display two decision-making biases related to the representativeness heuristic: the conjunction error and scope neglect. We also run the experiment with a student sample (n = 260), mainly to validate the experimental design. Our findings show that politician participants neglect scope in one scenario and that they display the conjunction error in two of three scenarios. These results suggest that politician participants use the representativeness heuristic. Conversely, our third conjunction error scenario does not find evidence for politician participants displaying this bias. As we discuss in the article, the latter may be an artifact of our experimental design. Overall, our findings contribute fundamentally to our understanding of how politicians process information and how this influences their judgements and decision making.

Abstract. Background: Diabetes continues to be a major health problem around the globe, and low treatment adherence continues to hinder clinical outcomes. Risk perception has been considered to guide the decision-making processes, and in recent years, the bounded rationality theory and cognitive heuristics have proved to be a useful lens to gain insight into informal and irrational reasoning. In particular, heuristics for the estimation of event frequencies and probabilities are considered to be relevant to the field of health behaviors. It is possible that the risk perceptions that determine patients' adherence could be generated by these heuristics. Aims: The purpose of this study is to analyze the role of the representativeness heuristic in risk perceptions related to heart attacks and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a sample of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Method: Cross-sectional study with 342 patients attending a public hospital in an urban setting to treat their diabetes. Results: The heuristic was correlated through both its mechanisms with CHD and heart attack. Evidence suggests that the representativeness heuristic might play a role in probability judgments related to heart complications in patients with T2D. Limitations: Only CHD and heart attack were included in the study, and the heuristic could correlate with the risk perception of other complications as well as the perceived risks and benefits of the diabetes treatment. Conclusion: We call for researchers to further study these heuristics in the context of treatment adherence of T2D patients.

AbstractPeople often use cognitive and affective heuristics when judging the likelihood of a health outcome and making health decisions. However, little research has examined how heuristics shape risk perceptions and behavior among people who make decisions on behalf of another person. We examined associations between heuristic cues and caregivers' perceptions of their child's asthma risk, the frequency of caregivers' asthma management behaviors, and child health outcomes. We used Ipsos KnowledgePanel to recruit 814 U.S. adult caregivers of children with asthma of the age <18 years. Participants completed a survey at baseline (T1) and 3 months later (T2). Caregivers who, at T1, reported greater negative affect about their child's asthma (affect heuristic cue), greater ease of imagining their child experiencing asthma symptoms (availability heuristic cue), and greater perceived similarity between their child and a child who has ever experienced asthma symptoms (representativeness heuristic cue) reported statistically significantly (p < 0.05) higher interpersonal perceived risk of their child having an exacerbation or uncontrolled asthma at T1. They also indicated at T2 that their child had poorer asthma control and more frequent exacerbations. Greater T1 negative affect was associated with more frequent T2 actions to reduce inflammation, manage triggers, and manage symptoms, and with poorer T2 child health outcomes. Heuristic cues are likely important for interpersonal—not just personal—risk perceptions. However, the interrelationship between caregivers' ratings of heuristic cues (in particular, negative affect) and risk judgments may signify a struggle with managing their child's asthma and need for extra support from health care providers or systems.

This study analyses heuristic factors affecting investor sentiment and investment decision-making in the Indian stock market. A quantitative approach is formulated with the questionnaire design for the collection of primary data regarding investor sentiment, representativeness heuristic bias, overconfidence and availability bias. The data are collected from the structured questionnaires from individual investors. The collected data were analysed using partial least square structural equation modelling to examine the relationship between the constructs: investor sentiment, representativeness heuristic bias, overconfidence and availability bias. This paper provides empirical insights into the association of heuristic factors that positively influence investor sentiment and investment decision-making. It encourages investors to make reasonable choices and to control and understand their risk. The study sheds light on the impact of investor sentiment on investment decision-making and its antecedent. It shows that investors depend on sentiment when making investment choices. Policymakers should provide consumers with knowledge and appreciation of the correct stock choice; various campaigns considering the different groups of investors will benefit decision-makers and institutional financial practitioners. This paper allows investors to pick the proper investment assistance to avoid making wrong decisions that arise as an outcome of the attitude of investors.

Intro -- Foreword -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- List of Illustrations -- Introduction -- Who is this Book For? -- Key Themes -- The Book's Structure -- The Perspectives from which I have Written this Book -- Where to Next? -- PART I: SETTING THE SCENE -- 1. When Legislation Fails -- 2. The Ways in which Legislation Fails -- The Damp Squib -- The Overshoot -- Nasty Surprises -- The Backfire -- A Focus on how Legislation Changes Behaviour -- 3. Learning from Past Failures -- Learning from Failure -- Causes of Legal Design Failures -- The Stories We Tell Ourselves about the Laws We Design -- The Importance of Team Composition and Dynamics -- A Better Model of the World for which We are Designing -- How Can We Do Better? -- The Implications of Our Limited Ability to Make Reliable Predictions -- 4. How Humans (Including Legal Designers) Actually Make Decisions -- Over-Confidence -- Substitution -- The Availability Heuristic -- The Affect Heuristic -- The Anchoring Effect -- The Representativeness Heuristic -- Confirmation Bias -- Loss Aversion -- Status Quo Bias -- The Framing Effect -- Social Influences -- The Planning Fallacy -- The Impact of Bias and Noise in Legal Design -- PART II: LESSONS FOR LEGAL DESIGNERS -- 5. Adopting a Structured Approach to Designing New Laws -- The Importance of a Structured Approach -- Responding to Uncertainty: Adaptive Legislation -- Some Tools to Improve How Legislation Works -- Who should do the Legal Design Work? -- Three Concerns -- 6. What is the Current Position? -- What is the Current Law? How Does it Operate in Practice? -- The Gap between the Law on Paper and the Law in Operation -- Gathering Information about How Laws Operate -- 7. What is the Legislation Aiming to Change? -- 8. Who are the Audiences for the Legislation?.

Introduction: The environment that surrounds people is changing, unpredictable and uncertain, so in the use of the neo cerebral cortex, heuristics gain prominence in decision making, which in the business field is important to know the influence of the same in the support seeking successful sales in the commercial sector. This is related to local economies and the circulation of capital, the growth of wealth for the benefit of people. Objectives: To determine if the owners use heuristics to procure sales and observe what they do to enhance the chances of success for the commercialization of the products. Methodology: The study was conducted in a quantitative exploratory manner of a transactional nature through a survey designed with constructs to obtain the data. Results: It was determined that 81.31% of the population chosen in the Cuba neighborhood of the city of Manta uses heuristics as a fundamental tool in decision-making and in application of the heuristic principles of representativeness, availability, adjustment, and anchoring given that 76.77% of the owners improve the situation by having formal education. Conclusions: The owners do use heuristics, consciously or not, in an effort to sustain the operation of their businesses. At the same time, it was possible to observe that the behaviors obtained are of a fractal nature, which leads to continue exploring new polygons and that better strategies are determined to promote local economies based on trade, useful information for educational institutions, local governments, and private entrepreneurs. ; Introducción: El entorno que rodea a las personas es cambiante, impredecible e incierto por lo que en uso del neocórtex cerebral la heurística gana protagonismo en la toma de decisiones lo cual en el ámbito de negocios es importante conocer la influencia de este en el sostenimiento procurando ventas exitosas en el sector comercial. Esto se relaciona de forma directa con las economías locales y la circulación de capital, el crecimiento de la riqueza a beneficio ...

Abstract. Historical rockfall catalogues are important data sources for the investigation of the temporal occurrence of rockfalls, which is crucial
information for rockfall hazard and risk assessments. However, such catalogues are rare and often incomplete. Here, we selected and analysed
seven catalogues of historical rockfalls in Austria, Italy, and the USA to
highlight existing relationships between data collection and mapping methods and representativeness of the resulting rockfall records. Heuristic and simple statistically based frequency analysis methods are applied to describe and compare the different historical rockfall catalogues. Our
results show that the mapping strategy may affect the frequency of the assessed rockfall occurrence and the completeness and representativeness of the related time series of historical rockfalls. We conclude by presenting the advantages and limitations of the application of different frequency-based methods for analysing rockfall catalogues and providing recommendations for rockfall mapping. We furthermore present non-parametric statistical methods for dealing with typically small rockfall datasets, which are particularly suited for the characterization of basic rockfall catalogues. Such recommendations should help in the definition of standards for collecting and using temporal rockfall data in hazard and risk assessments.

The subject of the article is the process of making an economic decision. The stages of the history of economic-psychological researches – economic psychology, behavioral economy, psychology of economic behavior are distinguished. The contribution to the study of the psychological factors of the economic behavior of the winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics is shown. The theory of rational expectations of John von Neumann and O. Morgerstern Is characterized, particular attention is paid to the prospect theory of D. Kaneman and A. Tversky. The latter is presented in the form of heuristic decision making – representativeness, availability, adjustment, and anchoring, in addition, with the distinction of rational and irrational moments of this process. It is stated that the corresponding model of decision making does not take into account and that behind the economic- psychological lies in the actual psychological logic that a person makes decisions based on his own strategy, coping. The concept of decision making is substantially incomplete. Opportunity of the possibility of specification of the prospect theory of by the Case Study method – the analysis of a particular case of economic behavior opens. The Melbourne decision making questionnaire applies, the factors of this process – vigilance, back-passing, procrastination, and hypervigilance are manifest. The investigator is given the instruction to make an expanded comment on every statement, to explain own argumentation, as well as the obtained result. The rational and irrational components of its solution and features of coping are analyzed. It is determined that vigilance is the dominant factor, it turns out to be the most productive way of decision making. A model of coping of decision making, which specifies the theory of the prospects of D. Kaneman and A. Tversky and expands the limits of its application in the field of psychology of human economic behavior, is constructed. ; У статті виділяються етапи історії економіко-психологічних досліджень процесу прийняття рішення, показується внесок лауреатів Нобелівської премії з економіки у вивчення психологічних чинників цього процесу. Характеризується теорія раціональних очікувань Дж. фон Неймана та О. Моргенштерна, особлива увага приділяється теорії перспектив Д. Канемана та А. Тверські. Констатується, що теорія описує евристики, яких недостатньо для цілісного опису стратегії прийняття рішення (копінгу) конкретною людиною. Відкривається можливість доповнення цієї теорії за допомогою методу case study – аналізу окремого випадку економічної поведінки. Застосовується Мельбурнський опитувальник прийняття рішення. Аналізуються складові рішення та особливості копінгу. Домінуючим виявляється фактор пильності, при прийнятті рішення він є найпродуктивнішим. Побудована модель копінгу прийняття рішення досліджуваним, яка доповнює теорію перспектив Д. Кане-мана і А. Тверські й розширює межі її застосування в царині психології економічної поведінки.