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The pursuit of a happy and good life is gaining importance increasingly. In today's world the orientation towards traditional values, such as religion or politics, has taken a back seat. In this context, art-of-living can provide assistance. It aims to instill a conscious way of living which leads to a fullfiling and happy life. In philosophy, the construct is defined as a mindful and self-determined way of dealing with one's self and way of life and it suggests a continuous critical reflection on one's own life. Consequently, it is important to recognize one's own abilities, strengths, and weaknesses and to be aware of the opportunities in life to obtain subjective well-being through mindful effort. Art-of-living can be assigned to positive psychology, which applies in this context, because it deals with the conditions and processes that enable self-development of the individual. The focus is on the systematic development of what is beneficial for well-being, such as human strengths, savoring, or optimism. It has been pointed out that this bundle acts to buffer stressful situations and can lead to a fulfilled life, which is also the aim of art-of-living. Research has shown that positive psychology does not only deal with adults. It has pointed out that positive psychology is also important for children and adolescents and so the study of positive psychology is alive and well in children and youth. Already young children have to deal with numerous life stressors. For this reason, the preventive use of positive action like dealing with one's self and dealing with life stressors is advocated by proponents of positive education. Hence, interventions of positive psychology have shown their effectiveness in numerous studies. Especially those who are developed for young children are promising. One context in which a lot of research on children and adolescents takes place is the scholastic context. There are numerous of intervention studies in the field of positive psychology dealing with different aspects, like well-being, resilience or mental health. In summary, to deal with children's positive psychology is of great interest for today's society. Nevertheless, there is no research that deals with the art-of-living of children and adolescents as of yet. Neither are there many instruments to measure art-of-living of children and adolescents as well as constructs of positive psychology. A huge number of instruments already exists but mainly developed for adults. It is common that researchers in the field of psychology for children and adolescents use instruments for adults and modify them. A lot of adult instruments consist of a huge number of items and so they cannot easily be used for studies with young children. Therefore, for some studies only a selection of items is made. It is uncertain whether complex constructs can be described with only a selection of items. Furthermore, there is an even smaller number of measurements in German. This is a limitation for cross-cultural studies and for research in Germany where young students are not familiar with the English language. In light of the described research gaps, the present doctoral thesis addresses the (1) development of interventions to improve art-of-living of children and adolescents, (2) training children and adolescents from different contexts, (3) the validation of child-adapted questionnaires, and (4) the translation of a common instrument in the field of positive psychology into German. The purpose of Study 1 was to develop an intervention to improve art-of-living of children and adolescents in the scholastic context for students of different age groups - primary school students and students from higher grades. Study 1.1 dealt with the initial examination of whether it is possible to enhance the art-of-living by training selected art-of-living strategies. Therefore, training with three conditions was developed and conducted with secondary school students (ages 16–19). For Study 1.2, a second art-of-living training was developed and conducted with children from primary school (ages 8–11). In summary, the training successfully enhanced art-of-living. In Study 1.1, the art-of-living measures increased significantly for the training conditions compared to a control group. In addition, Study 1.2 showed that higher levels of the art-of-living lead to a better quality of life. The aim of Study 2 was to transfer the art-of-living into the clinical-therapeutic context. Again, two studies were conducted. Study 2.1 aimed at identifying those art-of-living components that show differences for adolescents who are suffering from anxiety or depression by using a pre-experimental comparative design. The results could show significant differences of the art-of-living subscales in the comparison to a clinical and a nonclinical sample. A specific pattern was identified for the clinical sample. In Study 2.2, need-oriented and predefined art-of-living interventions were developed, implemented and evaluated based on a randomized two factors multivariate 3x3 design with repeated measures. The main outcome measures are art-of-living, life satisfaction, depression and anxiety. The results show that the developed training improved the art-of-living as well as the satisfaction with life, and reduced depression. Study 3 aimed at translating instruments for children and adolescents measuring constructs of positive psychology into German. Therefore, the Satisfaction with Life Scale - child version (SWLS-C), which is one of the most commonly used questionnaires in the field of positive psychology, was translated with the use of a backtranslation-proceeding (Study 3.1) and validated by a sample of 1099 students aged 8 to 17 (Study 3.2). The analyses included retesting of reliability, concurrent and discriminant validity by additionally measuring several established constructs of positive psychology. Model fit indices, internal consistencies, retest-reliability as well as concurrent and discriminant validity evidence were satisfying. In conclusion, this doctoral thesis makes an important contribution to research on the topic of the art-of-living of children and adolescents, particularly in the improvement by training art-of-living strategies. Moreover, the results allow implications for intervention programs for different contexts, i.e. school and clinical-therapeutic context, as well as different age groups. Furthermore, instruments to measure the effects on life satisfaction for children and adolescents were developed and can be used for the systematic evaluation of interventions in future studies for German speaking countries. As a consequence, SWLS-C data of children and adolescents of different nationalities can be compared and in addition as cross-cultural measurement invariance studies can be conducted.

It has been estimated that at least 99 % of the world's microbial biomass exists in form of biofilm, a complex differentiated surface-associated community embedded in a self-produced polymeric matrix enabling microorganisms to develop coordinated and efficient survival strategies. Biofilm formation is a dynamic and cyclical process involving attachment, maturation and a final dispersal phase, and these steps are initiated by a variety of signals. Despite their positive effects in some cases, biofilms can be detrimental in different environmental domains since microorganisms are able to colonize almost all types of surfaces both abiotic and biotic, leading to consequences in terms of social and economic impact. These include human tissues, implantable medical devices, natural aquatic systems, plants, food and industrial lines. Once biofilm is formed, its eradication becomes difficult because its resilience to environmental stresses, disinfectants, and antimicrobial treatments. Plants support a diverse array of microorganisms that exist in form of biofilms. Even if in some cases the association with plants leads to beneficial interactions promoting plant growth, inducing plant defense mechanisms and preventing the deleterious effects of pathogenic microorganisms, in other cases they have a significant negative impact. For instance, in agriculture, plant colonization of fungi and bacteria in form of biofilm is a cause of plant diseases, affecting crop quality and productivity. Indeed, despite the planktonic growth, biofilm lifestyle improves microbial resistance to antimicrobials up to several orders of magnitude, often reducing the possibility of treating biofilm effectively. In addition, due to the worrisome consequences related to the use of these substances on human health and on their persistence in the environment, increasingly regulations are arising to limit antimicrobial application. Furthermore, in addition to the principles of integrated pest management (IPM) embraced by the worldwide legislation aims to recommend alternative approaches to the application of pesticides, an innovative approach could be the use of biocide-free bioactive compounds characterized by novel targets, unique modes of action and properties that are separate from those currently highlighted in the use of antimicrobials. Indeed, the application of non-lethal doses of bio-inspired molecules able to interfere with specific key-steps involved in the biofilm formation process has been suggested as a complementary/alternative strategy to hinder biofilm formation. In addition, this approach also lead to deprive microorganisms of their virulence factors without affecting their viability and decreasing the selection pressure for biocides resistance. In this PhD thesis, the in vitro effects of non-lethal concentrations of several bioactive compounds were evaluated on the biofilm formation of different plant-associated microorganisms. Specifically, the aim of this work was to provide new effective preventive or integrated solutions against bacterial and fungal biofilm formation. In chapter III, the methanol extracts obtained by different plant portions of three seagrass species collected in Vietnam and in India (Enhalus acoroides, Halophila ovalis and Halodule pinifolia) were investigated for their effects in mediating non-lethal interactions on sessile Escherichia coli and Candida albicans cultures taken as models of bacterial and fungal biofilms respectively. The study was focused on anti-biofilm activities of seagrass extracts, without killing cells. Seagrass extracts appeared to be more effective in deterring microbial adhesion on hydrophobic surfaces than on hydrophilic. Results revealed that E. acoroides leaf extract proved to be the most promising extract among those tested. Indeed, the selected non-lethal concentrations of E. acoroides leaf extract were found to exert an anti-biofilm effect on C. albicans and E. coli biofilm in the first phase of biofilm genesis, opening up the possibility of developing preventive strategies to hinder the adhesion of microbial cells to surfaces. The leaf extract also affected the dispersion and maturation steps in C. albicans and E. coli respectively, suggesting an important role in cell signaling processes. Methanolic extracts were characterized and major phenolic compounds were identified by MS/MS analysis, showing the unique profile of the E. acoroides leaf extract. In chapter IV, two essential oils (PK and PK-IK) derived from two cultivars of Perilla frutescens, an annual short day plant widely used in therapeutics in the traditional medicine as well as in food preparations in Asian countries. Essential oils were extracted from the leaves and were characterized. Subsequeltly, their ability to affect biofilm formation of the phytopathogenic model fungi Colletotrichum musae, Fusarium dimerum and F. oxysporum have been studied. PK and PK-IK neither inhibited fungal growth nor were they utilized as a carbon energy source. In addition, PK and PK-IK essential oils showed excellent anti-biofilm performances inhibiting conidia germination and reducing conidia adhesion. Furthermore, they revealed a magnificent anti-biofilm effect even during biofilm maturation, affecting biofilm structural development, with a reduction of dried weight, extracellular polysaccharides and proteins. In all cases PK-IK displayed better activity than PK. Thus, the anti-biofilm effects were exploited with a non-lethal mechanism. This research supported the spreading of PK and PK-IK essential oils as biocide-free agents suitable for a preventive or integrative approach for sustainable crop protection. Lastly, in chapter V, a non-lethal concentration of N-Acetylcysteine (NAC) was evaluated on the biofilm formation of Xylella fastidiosa, a phytopathogen bacterium that causes a range of economically important plant diseases worldwide and that has been recently found in Italy in olive plants, where it causes the olive quick decline syndrome (OQSD). NAC is a naturally occurring compound found in several vegetables (including garlic, onion, peppers and asparagus) and it is mostly known in clinical area, in which it is employed at lethal concentrations in the treatment of human diseases due to its ability to reduce bacterial adhesion, inhibit the production of extracellular polysaccharides and promote the dispersion of pre-formed mature biofilms. In this study, N-Acetylcysteine (NAC) was tested for its ability to affect biofilm response of X. fastidiosa CoDiRO strain, mimicking a preventive, a curative and a combination of both approaches. The not-lethal dose 0.08 mg/ml was chosen as representative of plant concentration after its application. NAC did not alter planktonic bacterial growth but promoted biofilm formation in terms of biofilm biomass (above 62 %) and matrix polysaccharides (above 53%) through a ROS-mediated mechanism. Additionally, NAC was not able to destroy X. fastidiosa biofilm when already established on the surface but rather, it was suitable to contain the biofilm infection limiting biofilm dispersal. On the contrary, a combination of both preventive and curative approach has been found promising in biofilm dissolving making it more vulnerable.

Cooperative Intelligent Transport System (C-ITS) applications assume the availability of a reliable and accurate positioning system. Even if suitable to most Day-1 applications (e.g. route navigation), the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) accuracy, reliability and availability are clearly not sufficient for more demanding Day-2 applications (e.g., highly autonomous driving, advanced safety services including vulnerable road users warning, etc.), which would require a consistent sub-meter localization accuracy regardless of operating conditions. To bridge this gap, Cooperative Localization (CLoc) has been recently identified as a promising strategy. Accordingly, mobile nodes can help each other by exchanging location data (typically, their own position estimates or raw GNSS data), acquiring range-dependent metrics over their respective radio links and finally, fusing the various sources of information. However, conventional CLoc solutions may be partly unsuitable within the context of vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs), which comes along with unprecedented challenges such as specific mobility patterns, practical operating trade-offs with complexity and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication capabilities, or even fusion optimality when multiple measurement modalities are available at the vehicles. Thus, one central related research question is as follows: Can the Day-2 sub-meter localization accuracy be met through CLoc strategies between connected vehicles?"In this thesis, following a gradually complex approach, we aim at evaluating how and in which conditions position information from neighboring vehicles and/or associated V2V measurements may improve localization accuracy and resilience. We first develop a generic fusion-based CLoc framework, which can rely on various vehicle-to-everything (V2X) and embedded sensor technologies. We then apply this framework to the standard ITS-G5 Cooperative Awareness Messages (CAMs), and show that it is possible to benefit from neighboring position information and from received signal strength-based range estimates to enhance local accuracy. On this occasion, we also make concrete proposals to handle messages/data synchronism (through mobility-based predictions), as well as to reduce both complexity and V2V communication footprint (through links/neighbors selection, messages approximation and transmission control). Next, we extend this framework to integrate more accurate V2V measurements based on the impulse radio ultra-wide bandwidth (IR-UWB) technology, while dealing with fusion filter overconfidence and error propagation issues. Finally, under even more challenging conditions with GNSS depraved neighbors or in tunnel conditions, we considered the assistance of extra onboard sensors (inertial unit, wheel speed sensor, camera-based lane detector, etc.), as well as static roadside units (RSUs). The proposed framework and methodology show to typically improve the localization accuracy from 2 m to below 30 cm in 80% of the cases. The proposed framework has been tested analytically and through simplified simulations first, then on realistic mobility data, and finally on real data from a small-scale field test. ; Les applications des systèmes de transports intelligents coopératifs (C-ITS) impliquent la disponibilité d'un système de positionnement fiable et précis. Pour les applications C-ITS de deuxième génération plus exigeantes, telles que la conduite autonome ou les avertissements pour les usagers vulnérables de la route, la précision, la fiabilité et la disponibilité du système de positionnement par satellites (GNSS) ne sont pas suffisantes. Ces applications C-ITS de deuxième génération nécessitent une précision de localisation constante et stable à un niveau inférieur au mètre, quelles que soit les conditions d'opération. La Localisation Coopérative (CLOC) permet aux nœuds mobiles de palier à leurs propres faiblesses de localisation en s'entraidant par l'échange des données de localisation (à priori, leurs propres estimations de position ou données GNSS brutes), par l'acquisition d'estimation de distance par leurs liaisons radios respectives, et enfin par la fusion et la consolidation de ces données débouchant sur une estimation précise de leur localisation absolue. Considérant un contexte lié aux réseaux véhiculaires ad hoc (VANET), ce type d'approche (CLoc) n'est pas parfaitement adaptée, en particulier à cause de la mobilité véhiculaire très spécifique, d'une politique de transmission décentralisée et non-régulière de communication véhicules à véhicules (V2V), ainsi que de la complexité d'intégration des mesures principalement non Gaussienne dans un mécanisme de fusion. La question abordée dans cette thèse est donc : 'une précision de localisation à un niveau inférieur au mètre peut-elle être atteinte par des stratégies de localisation coopérative (Cloc) dans un environnement véhiculaire ?'Dans cette thèse, nous visons à évaluer comment et dans quelles conditions les informations de position des véhicules voisins et/ou les mesures V2V associées peuvent améliorer la précision et la stabilité de localisation. Notre approche suit une stratégie systématique et progressive et nous développons d'abord un schéma-cadre basé sur un mécanisme générique de fusion de données permettant de s'appuyer sur diverses technologies de communications inter-véhiculaires (V2X) ou de capteurs embarqués. Nous appliquons ensuite ce schéma-cadre à une approche V2V sur la technologie ITS-G5 et aux messages coopératifs normalisés de type 'CAM'. À travers cette première approche, nous montrons qu'il est possible d'améliorer la précision de positionnement à travers l'échange d'informations de position entre véhicules et d'une estimation de leur inter-distance en fonction de la puissance reçue du signal de communication ITS-G5. Afin d'atteindre ces résultats, nous proposons notamment des mécanismes innovants afin de gérer la synchronisation des messages / données (via des prédictions basées sur la mobilité), ainsi qu'afin de réduire la complexité et l'empreinte de communication inter-véhiculaire (p. ex. par sélection des liens / voisins, par une approximation des messages et un contrôle de transmission). Ensuite, nous étendons ce schéma-cadre de manière à intégrer des mesures V2V plus précises basées sur la technologie 'IR-UWB', tout en traitant la surestimation de fusion et des problèmes de propagation d'erreur typiques des systèmes de fusion. Enfin, dans des conditions difficiles impliquant des voisins dépourvus de système ou de signal GNSS (p. ex dans des tunnels), nous avons étendu notre schéma-cadre à l'assistance de capteurs embarqués, tels qu'une centrale inertielle, des capteurs de vitesse de roue, ou des détecteurs de voie, ainsi qu'à intégration d'unités de bord de route via des communications V2X. Le cadre et la méthodologie proposés montrent une augmentation systématique de la précision de localisation de 2 m à moins de 30 cm dans 80% des cas. Le schéma-cadre proposé a été testé analytiquement par des simulations simplifiées, puis sur des données de mobilité réalistes, et finalement sur des données réelles issues d'un test de terrain à faible échelle.

This Ph.D. work aims at exposing, and giving sense to the dynamics of agrarian change in Southern Thailand where rubber is a major crop. It intends to provide elements for decision makers to reflect on the future directions of the Thai rubber economy. I applied a sequence of multivariate analysis and systematic clustering to characterize the trajectories of 220 rubber farms. I also analyzed the evolution of share-tapping arrangements though personal interviews, survey and literature review. A path dependence analytical framework was then applied to identify and characterize how institutional settings and institutional reproduction shaped the observed trajectories and share-tapping arrangements. I identify six significant farm transformation trajectories between 1990 and 2010. Two trajectories show a decline in landholding and/or hired labor related to medium farms (10.5%) and small farms (25%). Three trajectories show growing landholding size and/or use of hired labor. They concern growing medium family farm enterprise (14.5%), large family farm enterprise (4.1%) and farms moving towards patronal enterprise (7.7%). These opposing trajectories witness a continuing polarization of rubber farms. 38.2% of farms follow a trajectory of stability with no change in farm size and labor structure. However, these are small farms and present a risk to follow the trajectories of farm decline. Labor availability and share-tapping arrangements evolved over time but share-tapping remains the main, almost unique, labor contract for harvesting since the beginning of rubber cultivation in Thailand. Labor contracting arrangements are in an institutional lock-in situation under the current form of share-tapping through three self-reinforcing economic, functional and legitimating mechanisms. I identified a set of rules that could explain the prevalence of the share-tapping arrangement in pursuing the exploitation of available labor force and ensuring high resilience to variations and uncertainty in social and economic conditions. Path dependence explains farm polarization and the institutional lock-in of share-tapping as the results of self-reinforcement mechanisms leading to institutional reproduction. The thesis shows that the period of rubber control during 1934-1946 was a critical juncture resulting in large expansion of new plantings and an institutional setting favoring polarization that has reproduced itself through self-reinforcing mechanisms until now. Land polarization had a positive effect on the stability of share-tapping contracts. Due to polarization, farms with growing landholding employ more hired labor, inducing an increasing demand while an increasing supply of skilled tappers is provided by declining small farms. The current share-tapping arrangements ensure the availability of paid labor and simultaneously reinforce land concentration. Based on the results of this analysis of agrarian change, three alternative policy scenarios are: continuation of present policies, reverting polarization and coping with global constraints. The policy scenario of reverting polarization is suggested as an option considering its consequences on economic growth, social welfare and sustainable agricultural development in the rubber sector. ; Cette thèse a pour objectif de présenter et donner du sens aux dynamiques de changement agraire au sud de la Thaïlande où l'hévéa est une culture dominante. Elle vise à fournir des éléments aux décideurs politiques pour réfléchir aux orientations futures de l'économie hévéicole thaïlandaise. J'ai appliqué une analyse statistique multivariée et une classification systématique pour caractériser les trajectoires de 220 exploitations hévéicoles. J'ai également analysé l'évolution des contrats de métayage pour la saignée des hévéas à travers des entretiens individuels, des enquêtes et une revue de la littérature. Un cadre d'analyse basé sur la dépendance au sentier a été appliqué pour comprendre comment les institutions et leur reproduction ont influencé les trajectoires observées et les contrats de métayage. J'ai identifié six trajectoires de transformation des exploitations entre 1990 et 2010. Deux trajectoires montrent un déclin de la surface des exploitations et/ou du recours à de la main d'œuvre rémunérée dans les exploitations de taille moyenne (10.5%) et de petite taille (25%). Trois trajectoires montrent un accroissement de la surface et/ou du recours à de la main d'œuvre rémunérée. Elles concernent des entreprises familiales agricoles de taille moyenne (14.5%), de grande taille (4.1%) et des exploitations évoluant vers des entreprises patronales (7.7%). Ces trajectoires opposées témoignent d'une polarisation croissante des exploitations hévéicoles. 38.2% des exploitations suivent une trajectoire de stabilité, sans changement dans la taille des exploitations ni dans la structure du travail. Cependant, ce sont de petites exploitations susceptibles de suivre une trajectoire de déclin. Même si la disponibilité en travail et les termes du contrat ont évolué, le métayage est quasiment l'unique contrat de travail pour la récolte du latex depuis le début de l'hévéaculture en Thaïlande. Les conventions contractuelles de travail pour la saignée sont dans une situation de verrouillage institutionnel sous la forme actuelle des contrats de métayage du fait de mécanismes d'auto-renforcement, de fonctionnement et de légitimation. J'ai identifié un ensemble de règles expliquant la prédominance de ces contrats de métayage qui permettent de mobiliser le travail disponible et d'assurer une grande résilience face aux variations et incertitudes des conditions sociales et économiques. La dépendance au sentier permet d'interpréter la polarisation des exploitations et le verrouillage institutionnel des contrats de métayage comme le résultat d'un processus d'auto renforcement conduisant à une reproduction institutionnelle. La thèse montre que la période de contrôle de la production du caoutchouc naturel (1934-1946) est un point critique à l'origine d'une expansion importante des nouvelles plantations et d'un cadre institutionnel ayant favorisé la polarisation qui s'est reproduite seule jusqu'à présent par le mécanisme d'auto renforcement. La polarisation du foncier a un effet positif sur la stabilisation des contrats de métayage pour la saignée. De plus, les exploitations en expansion emploient davantage de main d'œuvre rémunérée pour la saignée induisant une demande accrue alors qu'une offre croissante de saigneurs qualifiés est apportée par les petites exploitations sur le déclin. Les contrats de métayage assurent la disponibilité de la main d'œuvre rémunérée et renforce simultanément la concentration foncière. Basés sur les résultats de l'analyse du changement agraire, trois scénarios de politique sont proposés pour l'avenir de la filière hévéa: i) poursuivre la politique actuelle, ii) inverser le processus de polarisation et iii) faire face aux contraintes globales. Le scénario politique visant à inverser le processus de polarisation est privilégié compte tenu de ses conséquences sur la croissance économique, le bien-être social et la durabilité du développement de la filière hévéa.

Los fenómenos naturales en Colombia han producido a lo largo de la historia desastres producto de la alta vulnerabilidad existente de los asentamientos humanos; eventos como las inundaciones, deslizamientos y sismos han generado cuantiosas pérdidas humanas y materiales, reflejando los serios problemas en el territorio heredados de una equivocada planificación y un evidente déficit en el desarrollo del país. Uno de los problemas ha sido la falta de planificación territorial y la no identificación apropiada de los riesgos como determinantes en el ordenamiento territorial. Solamente hasta hace unas décadas se empezó a observar la importancia del ordenamiento territorial en Colombia, mostrando los grandes desafíos que esto implica y el inmenso esfuerzo gubernamental necesario para lograr estrategias de gestión de riesgo de desastres. En relación con la incorporación de las amenazas naturales de tipo cualitativo en el ordenamiento territorial, en Colombia hasta ahora se han realizado zonificaciones utilizando sistemas de información geográfica (SIG) que han permitido identificar, fundamentalmente, zonas con mayor susceptibilidad de ser afectadas, áreas consideradas como más vulnerables y finalmente, se han identificado zonas de riesgo definiendo con este tipo de mapas temáticos categorías de amenaza o riesgo bajo, medio y alto. Actualmente estas técnicas simplificadas no son las más apropiadas para definir restricciones y usos del suelo, debido a que, en general, estos mapas de amenaza y riesgo no tienen asociados períodos de retorno; es decir, no tienen en cuenta la frecuencia de los eventos. Estas técnicas en su momento fueron útiles para la toma de decisiones; sin embargo, hoy existen otras metodologías del estado del arte que permiten abordar el problema de una manera más rigurosa. Por lo anterior la metodología que aquí se considera más apropiada para la evaluación de amenaza y riesgo de acuerdo con la experiencia y que se expondrá en este documento, es el enfoque probabilista que permite definir con la frecuencia de los eventos la aptitud del suelo y así realizar un ordenamiento territorial que salvaguarde la vida y mejore la calidad de vida de los habitantes. En el presente trabajo se ilustrará como a partir de la ley 388 de 1997 se comenzaron a implementar los planes de ordenamiento territorial (POT) en los diferentes municipios de Colombia y cómo debía haberse incluido como determinante, del ordenamiento territorial o los usos del suelo, las amenazas y el riesgo. Tomando como ejemplo el realizado en la ciudad de Manizales, se expondrá como se ha incluido el riesgo en el POT en Colombia y se describirán metodologías las cuales ya han sido aplicadas en diferentes proyectos piloto. Este caso se presenta como ilustrativo de lo que se ha debido hacer en todas las ciudades del país, pero que desafortunadamente ha sido más la excepción que la regla. La resiliencia de las ciudades depende en buena medida de la incorporación apropiada del riesgo en el ordenamiento territorial. De aquí la importancia de implementar este proceso de gestión del riesgo de desastres en forma apropiada y efectiva. La finalidad de este trabajo académico es ilustrar que en la actualidad existen formas apropiadas de abordar el problema; es decir, cómo medir ó dimensionar las amenazas naturales de una manera cuantitativa con metodologías probabilistas y de esta manera definir los determinantes para la planificación territorial. Se plantea aquí como se pueden caracterizar y discriminar las metodologías que pueden servir en cada municipio según sus capacidades económicas, nivel socioeconómico e importancia geopolítica. Lo anterior se ilustra con ejemplos prácticos de trabajos académicos y pilotos, algunos en convenios con organizaciones no gubernamentales, otros con la Universidad Nacional de Colombia y el Gobierno Nacional. Como ejemplos se incluyen los enfoques utilizados en el Plan de Ordenación y Manejo Ambiental de la cuenca del Río Chinchiná (POMCA), el Plan Parcial del sector El Rosario de la ciudad de Manizales, la actualización del POT de la ciudad de Manizales y el Plan Regional Integral de Cambio Climático Región Capital, Bogotá-Cundinamarca-PRICC ; Abstract : In relation to qualitative natural-hazards inclusion for zoning, Colombia has been classifying areas through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) until now that have let it to identify feasible and susceptible zones mainly, considering them extremely vulnerable. So, a set of maps with low, medium and high hazards have been created to categorize zones under risk. Due to return periods have not been associated with risk-hazard maps, these mentioned techniques have been improperly to define either restrictions or land-use classes nowadays; in fact, events frequency have not been included for them either. These techniques were useful to take strategic decisions; however, new state-of-the-art methodologies can deal with this problem rigorously. For instance, probabilistic emphasis considered in this document is one of the most appropriate methodologies for hazard and risk evaluation based on previous experiences. Probabilistic emphasis allows characterizing soil suitability according to events frequency so that new land-use plans will be undertaken to protect and improve locals' lifestyle. In the course of this document, it is exposed how zoning plans were implemented at first in line with the 388 of 1997 Colombian Law and how should have been included as a key feature for landuse classes and risks-hazards evaluation. Taking the City of Manizales' Zoning Plan as an example, it analyzes how risk has been included on Colombian zonings; moreover, it describes the applied methods for previous projects. However, this successful case has still deliberately ignored. In general, cities' resilience depends largely on how risk is incorporated for zoning; for instance, it is quite important to implement well-organized risk management' processes to get a final positive result. Finally, the purpose of this document is to expose satisfactory methods to solve this matter; in other words, how to measure quantitative natural-hazards using probabilistic methodologies so that they can define important elements for zoning. In addition, it is explained how to characterize and discriminate these methodologies that can help cities in agreement with their economical, social and geo-political status. Some studies were included such as Landing Plan and Environmental Management for The Chinchiná River (POMCA for its acronym in Spanish), Partial Zoning Plan for El Rosario area in The City of Manizales, the Up-to-date Zoning Plan for The City of Manizales and Local Plan for Bogota's Climate Change (PRICC for its acronym in Spanish) that were leading by recognized Colombian universities, non-governmental organizations and central government ; Maestría

The world is experiencing an unprecedented shift in wealth and power away from the West and towards the developing countries According to some estimates the combined gross domestic product of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will surpass that of the G7 nations by 2032. India's GDP alone is predicted to surpass that of the United States by 2043 and China's GDP will be almost twice that of the US by 2050. Rising powers are using this newfound wealth to expand their global influence. China has taken the lead in investment and development in Africa. Russia is consolidating its influence in the Post-Soviet space. India is flexing its muscle on the subcontinent. Brazil is pushing for regional integration in South America and promoting diplomatic initiatives to address some of the world's most difficult problems, such as the Iranian nuclear program. What is the impact of institutions and regimes during periods of major power transition in the international system? My dissertation challenges liberal theories, which argue that the institutions and regimes established by the Western powers after World War II constitute a resilient and robust "International Liberal Order" (ILO) that will shape and restrain the behavior of rising powers. I develop a test of eight observable hypotheses for how the ILO should affect the behavior of rising and then test these against the behavior of post-Soviet Russia. I find that the Russian case fails along all eight hypotheses and that Russia has adopted a range of policies that undermine the existing order and work to transform it. The ILO's institutions and regimes have not shaped and constrained Russia's behavior in the ways that the theory predicts. Nor have the larger political and economic processes that ILO theorists believe bolster the existing order, such as global economic integration, the rise of transnational non-state actors (NGOs and big business) and the spread of liberal and democratic values, made Russia more amenable to integration into the ILO. Evaluated in this way, claims about the robustness and resilience of the existing order fail, suggesting that Russia and other rising states will look to use their growing power to bring about major changes in the international order.Interestingly, it's not only Russia's behavior that does not conform to the ILO's expectations. The leading Western powers have not been willing to give Russia a seat at the table that would give it a real say over major political and economic questions. They continue to be wary of growing Russian power and suspicious of Russia's true intentions. As a result, Russia's leaders are unsatisfied with the existing order's ability to promote their country's interests. Instead of embracing the ILO, Russia has increasingly looked to preserve its freedom of action and has followed an independent foreign policy course. The Russian case challenges the ILO's universalistic argument that all emerging states will simply find common cause within the existing framework of international institutions and regimes. It shows that rising states have a mind of their own and that they are ready to utilize a wide range of tools to realize their ambitions. They see the ILO as only one among many means to pursue their interests. But in many cases concerns about relative gains and their reluctance to enter into relationships of dependence will also make them question the wisdom of working through existing institutions. Rising states will often see the pursuit of their own power and capabilities - rather than strengthening institutional relationships - as the most reliable strategy for promoting their interests. They will also look to use their newfound power to transform international institutions so that they serve their interests more effectively. Not only is there a demand for change on the part of rising powers, but they may also be able to effect change more readily than is usually acknowledged by either realist or liberal IR theories. Both realist and liberal theories assume that rising powers only have two strategies open to them: they can either accept the existing order or wage a full-out frontal assault to overthrow it (i.e., behave as Germany and Japan did in the lead up to WWI/WWII or the Soviet Union did after WWII). Proponents of the ILO argue that rising powers will accept the established order because they will find the costs and risks of pushing for change to be prohibitive. In examining Russia's behavior, I find that rising powers have a wider menu of effective strategies and tactics available to them - from simply ignoring the parts of the ILO that they do not like, to forming new relationships and institutions that achieve specific aims. These strategies allow rising powers to resist the current order and work towards its gradual transformation without having to challenge it openly and directly. The future international order may take the form of a traditional multi-polar system where order is the product of power balancing between system's most powerful states. This does not mean that we will see a complete return to intense military completion between great powers, as some realists have claimed. Though liberal theorists tend to overstate their transformative effects, new technologies and other processes related to globalization have had a profound effect on international relations. Nuclear weapons and growing economic interdependence will moderate conflict between states and make the prospects of great power war - and even the type of hard balancing we witnessed in earlier historical periods - remote. Competition between states will be intense, though it will manifest itself primarily in the economic and ideological (soft power) realms. Nontraditional security threats will also continue to be a primary concern in the years to come. However, states will be more likely to address these threats through ad-hoc and bilateral cooperation, rather than through institutions. Change can be gradual and can come through the decay and reform of old international institutions or the creation of new ones. This last point gives us some comfort and hope for the future as we enter an era of uncertainty and unpredictability in international politics. It suggests that Western leaders need not be afraid of change. Rather than insisting that rising powers accept the existing order, it may be in the West's own long-term interests to begin looking for ways to work with rising powers to transform the international order so that it better serves the interests of all of states.

In recent decades, the different impacts of global change have led to an increased exposure and vulnerability of coupled socio-ecological systems (SES) to various disturbances and stressors. Human-induced land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) are an important factor contributing to the vulnerability of such systems. It is therefore reasonable to analyse vulnerability and LUCC in a combined effort. In this study, projections for future LUCC around an estuary in southwestern Sri Lanka were developed. In a subsequent step, the vulnerability of the coupled coastal system to natural hazards was analyzed based on the effects of the tsunami in December 2004. Changes in land use and land cover are the most important impacts of human activities on the earth system, with mostly negative consequences for both ecosystems and social systems. Awareness has grown about the complexity of the driving forces of LUCC, and various modeling approaches have been developed for generating scenarios on different spatial scales. Agent-based models (ABMs) with their focus on the simulation of human decision making and the interdependencies between humans and their environment are seen as a promising and flexible approach. They are best capable of capturing the complexity of coupled SES and of providing a natural description of the systems under consideration. This study employed the Land-Use Dynamics Simulator (LUDAS), an ABM consisting of four modules, which was developed in 2005 for an upland watershed in central Vietnam. In addition to the household and the landscape modules, the policy component captures land-use related policies and other external parameters that impact decision making with respect to land use. The decision-making sub-module as the core of the model simulates the decision-making processes of the household agents. First, LUDAS was modified according to different biophysical and socio-economic circumstances in the coastal study region. Current land use was analyzed with high-resolution satellite images (Ikonos), while socio-economic information was based on extensive household surveys and field visits to agricultural plots, complemented by expert interviews on the local, regional, and national level. Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis were used to classify the sampled population into five different livelihood groups. In a next step, binary logistic regression was employed to evaluate decision making with regard to land-use choices of the households within the different livelihood groups. Access of households to agricultural extension services and agricultural subsidies were identified as the most important external parameters assumed to have an impact on land use and economic patterns in the study region. Notwithstanding the impact of the policy factors, all 20-year simulations revealed slight decreases in the share of income from farming activities, while the overall income of the households of all groups remains more or less constant. Furthermore, landholdings of all households decrease in size, which is mainly due to decreases in homestead area, while agricultural land uses remain on the same level or show slight increases. Access to subsidies has a stronger effect on land use and livelihoods than access to extension services. It increases the share of income from farming activities, and modifies the development of the mixed cinnamon and paddy area. Changes in access to extension services only result in minor LUCC with large uncertainties for all scenarios. Comprehensive vulnerability approaches attempt to capture the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience of coupled SES. This study employed a guiding multi-level vulnerability framework with a specific focus on the linkages and feedbacks between social and environmental components of the system and their implications for the vulnerability of the SES. Data for the vulnerability assessment were collected through household surveys, expert interviews, analysis of secondary material, statistical analysis, and field and vegetation surveys. The assessment revealed the high vulnerability of households depending on fishery and labor. The vulnerability of the fishery households was due to a higher exposure and to failures in individual and institutional coping after the tsunami. The vegetation survey with the subsequent statistical analysis identified the varying impact of coastal vegetation on the energy of the tsunami waves. ; Agenten-basierte Modellierung von Landnutzungsänderungen und Verwundbarkeits-Analyse in einem gekoppelten sozio-ökologischen System in der Küstenzone Sri Lankas In den letzten Jahrzehnten haben die verschiedenen Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels zu einer zunehmenden Exposition und Verwundbarkeit von gekoppelten sozio-ökologischen Systemen (SES) geführt. Von Menschen verursachte Veränderungen der Landnutzung und Landbedeckung (LUCC) sind ein wichtiger Aspekt hinsichtlich der Verwundbarkeit solcher Systeme. Es ist daher sinnvoll, Verwundbarkeit und LUCC in einer kombinierten Analyse gemeinsam zu untersuchen. In der vorliegenden Studie wurden Szenarien zur zukünftigen LUCC im Umland einer Lagune im Südwesten Sri Lankas entwickelt. Im darauf folgenden Schritt wurde die Verwundbarkeit des gekoppelten Küsten-Systems gegenüber Naturkatastrophen auf Grundlage des Tsunamis 2004 analysiert. Änderungen der Landnutzung und dr Landbedeckung sind die wichtigsten Auswirkungen von menschlichen Aktivitäten auf das Erdsystem. Sie haben meistens negative Konsequenzen sowohl für Ökosysteme als auch für soziale Systeme. Das Bewusstsein über die Komplexität der Einflussfaktoren für LUCC hat zugenommen, und es wurden verschiedene Modellierungs-Ansätze zur Generierung von Szenarien auf verschiedenen räumlichen Ebenen entwickelt. Agenten-basierte Modelle (ABMs) mit ihrem Fokus auf der Simulation von menschlichen Entscheidungsfindungsprozessen und gegenseitigen Abhängigkeiten zwischen Menschen und ihrer Umwelt sind ein viel versprechender und flexibler Ansatz. Sie sind am besten in der Lage, die Komplexität von gekoppelten SES darzustellen, und eine naturgetreue Abbildung der betrachteten Systeme zu liefern. Die vorliegende Studie nutzte den "Land-Use Dynamics Simulator" (LUDAS), ein ABM, das 2005 zur Anwendung in einem Hochland-Einzugsgebiet an der Zentralküste von Vietnam entwickelt wurde und aus vier Modulen besteht. In Ergänzung zu den Modulen "Haushalte" und "Landschaft" beinhaltet das "Politik"-Modul landnutzungsbezogene Politiken sowie andere externe Parameter, die einen Einfluss auf Entscheidungsprozesse zu Landnutzung haben. Das Unter-Modul "Entscheidungsfindung" als zentrales Element des Modells simuliert die Entscheidungsfindungsprozesse der Haushalte (Agenten). Als erstes wurde LUDAS an die veränderten biophysikalischen und sozioökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen in der küstennahen Studienregion angepasst. Die aktuelle Landnutzung wurde anhand hochauflösender Satellitenbilder (Ikonos) analysiert. Die sozioökonomischen Informationen basierten auf ausführlichen Haushaltsbefragungen und Feldstudien der landwirtschaftlichen Flächen, ergänzt durch Experten-Interviews auf der lokalen, regionalen und nationalen Ebene. Die Stichproben der Haushalte wurden mit Hauptkomponenten- und Clusteranalyse in fünf verschiedene Erwerbsgruppen eingeteilt. Mit einer binären logistischen Regression wurde die Entscheidungsfindung im Hinblick auf Landnutzung der Haushalte im Rahmen der Gruppen ermittelt. Der Zugang der Haushalte zu landwirtschaftlichen Beratungsdiensten und zu landwirtschaftlichen Subventionen wurden als die wichtigsten externen Parameter identifiziert, von denen angenommen wird, dass sie einen Einfluss auf die Landnutzung und ökonomische Muster in der Studienregion haben. Unabhängig von den Auswirkungen der Politikfaktoren zeigten die Simulationen über einen Zeitraum von 20 Jahren leichte Abnahmen des Einkommensanteils aus landwirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten, während sich das gesamte Einkommen der Haushalte in allen Gruppen kaum verändert. Die Größe des Grundbesitzes aller Haushalte nimmt ab, hauptsächlich wegen der Reduzierung des Landes zur vorwiegenden Wohnnutzung, während landwirtschaftlich genutztes Land auf dem gleichen Level bleibt oder einen leichten Anstieg verzeichnet. Der Zugang zu Subventionen hat einen stärkeren Effekt auf Landnutzung und Lebensstrategien als der Zugang zu Beratungsdiensten. Er erhöht den Anteil des Einkommens aus landwirtschaftlichen Tätigkeiten und beeinflusst die Entwicklung der gemischten Zimt-Plantagen und Reisfelder. Der Zugang zu Beratungsdiensten führt nur zu geringen LUCC mit hohen Unsicherheiten in allen Szenarien. Umfassende Verwundbarkeitsansätze haben zum Ziel, die Exposition, Anfälligkeit und Resilienz von gekoppelten SES zu ermitteln. Die vorliegende Studie verwendete ein Mehrebenen-Konzept mit einem besonderen Fokus auf den Verknüpfungen und Rückkoppelungen zwischen den sozialen und ökologischen Komponenten des Systems und deren Implikationen für die Verwundbarkeit des SES. Die Daten für die Verwundbarkeits-Analyse basierten auf Haushaltbefragungen, Experten-Interviews, Analyse von Sekundärmaterial, statistischen Untersuchungen sowie Feld- und Vegetations-Erhebungen. Die Analyse zeigte die hohe Verwundbarkeit der Haushalte, die ihr Einkommen durch Fischerei und einfache Erwerbstätigkeiten erzielen. Die Verwundbarkeit der Fischerei-Haushalte entstand durch eine höhere Exposition sowie Fehlentwicklungen in der individuellen und institutionellen Bewältigung nach dem Tsunami. Die Vegetations-Erhebung und die anschließenden statistischen Analysen verdeutlichten die unterschiedlichen Auswirkungen von Küstenvegetation auf die Energie der Tsunami-Wellen.

Cindy Shermans Fotoserie "Disgust Pictures" (1986-90) gehört zu einer Reihe von künstlerischen Arbeiten der späten 1980er und 90er Jahre, die BetrachterInnen unmittelbar mit Ekelgefühlen affizieren. Im Unterschied zu den meisten von ihnen, richten sich Shermans Arbeiten jedoch gleichzeitig mithilfe postmoderner Strategien vielfältiger Bedeutungsüberlagerungen auch dezidiert an den Intellekt ihres Publikums. Die vorliegende Abhandlung geht anhand einer methodischen Vielfalt von gender- und rezeptionsästhetischen Ansätzen, ästhetischen und psychoanalytischen Theorien zur Wirkung von Ekel sowie der Untersuchung des diskursiven Entstehungsumfelds der "Disgust Pictures" der Frage nach der Besonderheit dieser Werkgruppe nach. Sie untersucht dazu exemplarische Arbeiten Shermans eingehend auf Darstellungsweisen und Wirkungsfaktoren, nimmt Vergleiche mit Vor-Bildern und künstlerischen Arbeiten anderer KünstlerInnen vor und zeichnet so ein interpikturales Netz von Bedeutungsstrukturen und Verweisen nach, welche die Arbeiten auszeichnen. Zu Beginn wird das Phänomen Ekel anhand seiner Theoretisierungen ausführlich beleuchtet, wobei ein Schwerpunkt auf den 80er und 90er Jahren des 20. Jahrhunderts liegt. In dieser Zeit rückte mit dem Aufkommen der Pandemie AIDS der menschliche Körper und seine Vergänglichkeit in den Fokus des gesellschaftlichen Interesses. So haben sich die Widerständigkeit des Körpers und seiner schwer zu kontrollierenden Randzonen und Abfallprodukte als wirkmächtige Impulsgeber für eine Kunst gezeigt, die ihr Publikum mit Gefühlen affizieren und damit teilweise auch gesellschaftlich und politisch wirken wollte. Dabei bestimmte Julia Kristevas Abjekttheorie die Diskussion der Zeit maßgeblich mit und wurde auch politisch gedeutet und instrumentalisiert. Exemplarische Arbeiten der zeitgenössischen KünstlerInnen Kiki Smith, Mike Kelley und Paul McCarthy ergänzen die theoretischen Ausführungen zum Ekel und übersetzen sie in spezifische künstlerische Strategien in Abgrenzung zu Shermans Arbeitsweise. Dann wird die inszenierte Fotografie als postmoderne künstlerische Ausdrucksform vorgestellt, deren Hauptmerkmal darin besteht, dass kein vorgefundenes, sondern ein arrangiertes Geschehen abgelichtet wird. Die Spannung zwischen der Beglaubigung des Dagewesenen durch die Fotografie und damit ihrem 'Wahrheitsanspruch' und der künstlerischen Inszenierung vor der Kamera macht den besonderen Charakter dieser Arbeiten aus und ermöglicht es den KünstlerInnen, die Funktionsweise des Mediums in ihren Bildern erlebbar zu machen und kritisch zu hinterfragen. In einem weiteren Schritt wird gezeigt, wie Sherman dieses medienkritische Potential der inszenierten Fotografie für ihre Arbeiten vor allem nutzt, indem sie medial vermittelte Wirklichkeitskonstruktionen über das Arbeitsmittel der Reinszenierung bewusst macht und ironisch kommentiert. Anhand der detaillierten Analyse einzelner Arbeiten wird darüber hinaus herausgearbeitet, wie Sherman formlose, Ekel auslösende Darstellungsmomente mit strukturierenden, formalästhetischen Elementen verknüpft, mit Konventionen der Körperdarstellung experimentiert und mediale Vor-Bilder 'parasitiert'. So werden beispielsweise ihre "Molding Foods", riesige Tableaux aus scheinbar verschimmelten, ausgespieenen, aber reichfarbigen Lebensmittelpasten, mit barocken Stillleben und mit Arbeiten des Nouveau Réalisme von Daniel Spoerri und Dieter Roth verglichen sowie Jackson Pollocks Drip Paintings als Vor-Bilder diskutiert. Daneben werden in thematischen Kapiteln wie "'Landschaften' des Ekels" und "Das Ekel erregende menschliche Antlitz" eine weitere Auswahl aus den "Disgust Pictures" vorgestellt und vor dem Hindergrund von Tim Heads künstlichen Landschaften, aber auch von Horrorfilmszenarien sowie von Arcimboldos Gemüse-und Marcel Duchamps Süßigkeitenportraits analysiert. Ekel erscheint innerhalb dieser Arbeiten nicht nur als Mittel, die RezipientIn direkt mit unangenehmen Gefühlen zu affizieren, sondern sein Einsatz ist auch thematisch bedingt und weist Bezüge zu aktuellen Ereignissen und gesellschaftlichen Problemen auf. Nicht zuletzt dient der Einsatz von Ekel erregenden Elementen als Form der Kritik an oder als Kommentar zu den verhandelten Themen, führt Sherman doch mittels der Zusammenschau und Verfremdung kultureller Versatzstücke anhand und innerhalb ihrer "Disgust Pictures" eine lustvolle Auseinandersetzung um die Konstruiertheit von Körperrepräsentationen und Geschlecht. Aufgrund ihrer spezifischen Arbeitsweise erhalten Shermans Arbeiten eine Pluriperspektivität, die einen großen Bedeutungsspielraum eröffnet, zu ihrer anhaltenden Aktualität beiträgt und sich als eine Besonderheit innerhalb der Gruppierung der Kunstwerke erweist, in denen Strategien der Ekelerzeugung wirksam werden. ; Cindy Sherman's series of photographs known as the "disgust pictures" (1986-90) belong to those artworks from the late 1980s and 90s that are intended to immediately evoke feelings of disgust in audiences. Unlike the majority of these artworks, however, Sherman's works rely on postmodern strategies such as the overlaying of multiple meanings in order to deliberately appeal to audiences on a cerebral level as well. In this doctoral thesis, I rely on several methodological approaches in gender, reception, aesthetic, and psychoanalytic theory concerning the effects of disgust to investigate the particular characteristics of this group of works while also reflecting on the discursive background of Sherman's "disgust pictures." I explore selected works by Cindy Sherman according to the methods of representation used and the factors determining the resulting effects. By comparing these with the artworks and pictorial models used by other artists, I also trace the intertextual references that characterize the "disgust pictures." In this thesis, I begin with a close examination of different theoretical approaches to disgust, with a focus on the 1980s and 90s. During this time, the emergence of the AIDS pandemic created a renewed public interest in the human body and its transience. The body's resilience, its difficult-to-control penetrable surfaces and excretions, were powerful incentives for a type of art that endeavored to evoke emotions in audiences, while some works also aimed at having a social and political impact. Julia Kristeva's theory of abjection played a major role in discussions at that time, because abjection was interpreted as something political that could be used as a tool. For the purpose of illustrating the different theoretical approaches to disgust, I also refer to a number of key works by contemporary artists such as Kiki Smith, Mike Kelley, and Paul McCarthy, whose specific artistic strategies I compare with Sherman's working method. An important theme is staged photography as a postmodern artistic means of expression. The main feature of staged photography is not taking a picture of something found, but creating the motif through a deliberate arrangement. The resulting tension between using the camera for verification – photography's "truth claim" – and artistic staging is what lends these works their unique character and what enables these particular artists to openly reflect on – and thus critically question – the functional mechanisms of photography as a medium in their pictures. In a second step, I demonstrate how Sherman applies staged photography to question the role of media and how she uses the techniques of restaging and ironic commentary to expose the constructs of reality conveyed by the media. In a detailed analysis of individual works, I examine how Sherman combines formless elements of representation, which evoke disgust, with structuring elements of a formal aesthetics. I also investigate how she experiments with the conventions of representing the body and how she feeds off certain pictorial models from the media. Her "molding foods" pictures – gigantic arrangements of colorful, moldy-looking food pastes that appear to have been regurgitated – are also compared with the pictorial models of Baroque still lifes, works by Nouveau Réalistes like Daniel Spoerri and Dieter Roth, and Jackson Pollock's drip paintings. In more thematic chapters, such as The Landscapes of Disgust and The Disgusting Human Face, I juxtapose Sherman's "disgust pictures" with, among other things, Tim Head's artificial landscapes, scenes from horror movies, Arcimboldo's portraits consisting of vegetables, and Marcel Duchamp's portraits consisting of marzipan vegetables. Disgust functions in these particular artworks not only as a means of directly evoking unpleasant feelings in audiences, but also as a thematic reference to current events and social problems and, not least, as a criticism or commentary. In her "disgust pictures," Sherman sensually investigates the constructedness of representations of bodies and gender by visualizing and defamiliarizing cultural elements. Sherman's unique working method lends her pictures a pluralist perspective that not only opens up the range of meaning in her works, but also contributes to her currency as an artist and is thus arguably a unique quality of her artistic practice in comparison with other artists that also rely on strategies of evoking disgust.

1. Introduction to Sustainability Leadership in Tourism -- Part I: Sustainable Tourism Essentials -- 2. Understanding Sustainable Tourism -- 3. Keys to Sustainable Tourism Success -- 4. Sustainable Tourism: Future Trends and Priorities -- Part II: Interviews with Sustainability Leaders and Changemakers -- 5.Abdulla Radaideh on Sustainable Hospitality in Jordan -- 6. Adama Bah on Responsible Tourism in The Gambia, Africa. 7. Aivar Ruukel on Ecotourism in Estonia -- 8. Alexandra Pastollnigg on Sustainable Tourism Standards and Increasing Transparency -- 9. Alexandre Tsuk on Responsible Travel Trends and Tourism in Bali -- 10. Ally Dragozet on Marine Conservation, Plastic Pollution and Tourism Solutions -- 11. Amine Ahlafi on Tourism and Sustainable Development in Morocco -- 12. Angelique Tonnaer Kırkıl on Hotels and Tourism Sustainability in Turkey -- 13. Anna Spenceley on How Sustainable Tourism Is Changing and How to Measure Success -- 14. Anne de Jong on Responsible Tour Operators and Sustainable Travel -- 16. Antonio Abreu on Developing Sustainable Island Destinations -- 17. Antonis Petropoulos on the State of Ecotourism in Greece -- 18. Ariane Janér on Ecotourism and Sustainable Tourism in Brazil -- 19. Audrey Scott on Sustainable Tourism Strategies and Social Media -- 20. Beatriz Barreal on the Sustainable Destination Strategy of Riviera Maya in Mexico -- 21. Benjamin Lephilibert on Hotels, Food Waste and Other Sustainability Challenges -- 22. Brett Tollman on Why Sustainability Will (Have to) Thrive in the Years Ahead -- 23. Brian Mullis on How Guyana Promotes Sustainable Tourism -- 24. Carlos Sandoval on Building an Ecolodge in the Middle of Nowhere -- 25. Christian Baumgartner on Sustainable Tourism in the European Alps -- 26. Christof Burgbacher on Why Social Sustainability Matters in Tourism -- 27. Craig Wickham on Operating a Sustainable Tour Business in Australia -- 28. Dagmar Lund-Durlacher on Sustainable Tourism in Austria and Germany -- 29. Daniel Frey on Green Growth in Tourism and Sustainable Hospitality -- 30. Darrell Wade on How Intrepid Champions Carbon Management and Sustainable Travel -- 31. David Simmons on the Consumption Paradox in Tourism and Destination New Zealand -- 32. Eddie Ramirez on Sustainability at Casa Sol in San Juan, Puerto Rico -- 33. Elisa Spampinato on Community-Based Tourism in Brazil -- 34. Evarist March Sarlat on Culinary Tourism and Being a Tour Guide -- 35. Felipe Vera Soto on the Current State of Sustainable Tourism in Chile -- 36. Fiona Jeffery on Just a Drop and the WTTC Tourism for Tomorrow Awards -- 37. Florie Thielin on Hopineo and Responsible Tourism in Latin America -- 38. Frankie Hobro on Marine Wildlife Protection and Business Resilience -- 39. Geoffrey Lipman on Green Growth and Travelism -- 40. Geoffrey Wall on the Realities of Sustainable Tourism Research -- 41. Gianna Moscardo on Sustainable Tourism Research, Trends and Priorities -- 42. Glenn Jampol on Tourism Business and Ecotourism in Costa Rica -- 43. Gopinath Parayil on Being a Responsible Tour Operator and Voluntourism -- 44. Goverdhan Rathore on Tiger Conservation and Sustainable Tourism in India -- 45. Graham Miller on Destination Sustainability Measuring and Challenges -- 46. Greg Bakunzi on Conservation Through Responsible Tourism in Rwanda -- 47. Hans Pfister on How Cayuga Collection Hotels Promote Sustainability -- 48. Harold Goodwin on Taking Responsibility for Tourism -- 49. Hitesh Mehta on Holistic Architecture, Ecolodge Design and Sustainability -- 50. Ishita Khanna on Homestays and Sustainable Rural Development in India -- 51. Jake Haupert on Transformational Travel and Purpose-Driven Vacations -- 52. Jalsa Urubshurow on Pioneering Responsible Tourism in Mongolia -- 53. James Crockett on How to Operate a Responsible Sailing Tour Business -- 54. Jamie Sweeting on Planeterra and the Future of Responsible Travel -- 55. Janne Liburd on Tourism Education and Destination Development -- 56. Jens Thraenhart on Sustainable Development of the Mekong Region -- 57. Jeremy Sampson on How to Address the Invisible Burden of Tourism -- 58. Joanna Van Gruisen on Regenerative Tourism in India -- 59. Jonathan Tourtellot on Destination Stewardship and Geotourism -- 60. Jonathon Day on Destination Sustainability and Tourism Research -- 61. Jos Vranken on Holland's Sustainable Destination Strategy -- 62. Karma Tshering on Sustainable Tourism in Bhutan -- 63. Kaspar Howald on Connecting Agriculture, Local Trade and Tourism -- 64. Kelly Bricker on Ecotourism Challenges and Opportunities -- 65. Linda Veråsdal on Ethical Travel and Responsible Tourism in The Gambia -- 66. Lisa Choegyal on the Pandemic and the Sustainability of Tourism in Nepal -- 67. Lucy McCombes on Teaching Responsible Tourism, and The Gambia -- 68. Luigi Cabrini on the Global Sustainable Tourism Council -- 69. Maja Vanmierlo on Tour Guides as Responsible Tourism Facilitators -- 70. Manal Kelig on Muslim-Friendly Travel and Tourism in the MENA Region -- 71. Manisha Pande on How to Boost Local Economies Through Tourism -- 72. Marcus Cotton on How to Run a Sustainable Hotel in the Himalayas -- 73. Marcus Curcija on the Importance of Measuring Sustainable Development Success -- 74. Mariana Madureira on Sustainable Tourism Entrepreneurship in Brazil -- 75. Marta Mills on Sustainable Tourism in the Caucasus Region -- 76. Megan Epler Wood on the Role of Entrepreneurship in Tourism -- 77. Michaela Reitterer on Hotel Stadthalle in Vienna and Sustainability -- 78. Mike McHugo on Responsible Tourism at Kasbah du Toubkal, Morocco -- 79. Mihee Kang on Ecotourism Opportunities and Challenges in South Korea -- 80. Monica Vallejo on How Hostal Grau Approaches Sustainability -- 81. Muna Haddad on Community Tourism and Local Economies in Jordan -- 82. Nada Roudies on How Morocco is Developing a More Sustainable Tourism -- 83. Natalia Naranjo on Tourism Sustainability in Colombia and Canada -- 84. Olivier Cheseaux of Anakolodge on Architecture, Tourism and Airbnb -- 85. Paul Peeters on Tourism, Aviation and Climate Change -- 86. Paul Rogers on Sustainable Tourism Development in Myanmar -- 87. Peter Richards on Responsible Tourism and Community Development in Asia -- 88. Rachel Dodds on Sustainable Tourism in Canada -- 89. Rachel Vaughan on Destination Sustainability in Kaikoura, New Zealand -- 90. Raj Gyawali on Crisis Management and Responsible Tourism in Nepal -- 91. Randy Durband on Leading the Global Sustainable Tourism Council -- 92. Rebecca Hawkins on Sustainable Hotels and Responsible Hospitality -- 93. Reto Fry on the Greenstyle Approach to Sustainability in Laax, Switzerland -- 94. Richard Butler on Sustainability and Tourism Education -- 95. Richard Hammond on How to Communicate Responsible Tourism -- 96. Shannon Guihan on Tourism Sustainability and Destination Overcrowding -- 97. Shivya Nath on Responsible Travel Writing -- 98. Sonja Gottlebe on Sustainable Tourism Development in Madagascar -- 99. Susan Santos de Cárdenas on Sustainable Tourism in the Philippines -- 100. Tensie Whelan on Sustainable Tourism, the Rainforest Alliance and Costa Rica -- 101. Tila Braddock on Ecopreneurship and Destination Lanzarote, Spain -- 102. Tony Charters on Ecotourism in Australia -- 103. Tricia Barnett on Human Rights and Equality in Tourism -- 104. Vassilis Katsoupas on Running a Sustainable Restaurant in Greece -- 105. Vicente Ferreyra Acosta on Tourism Sustainability in Mexico -- 106. Vicky Smith on Responsible Tourism and Entrepreneurship -- 107. Vik Nair on Community-Based Tourism in The Bahamas, Caribbean -- 108. Willem Niemeijer on How to Run a Sustainable Travel Business -- 109. Willy Legrand on Hotels, Sustainability and the Future of Hospitality -- 110. Xavier Font on How to Communicate Sustainable Tourism. .

Chapter 1: Prelude: The Roman World Transformed (c.300-c.600) -- A Christianized Empire -- 1.1 Toleration or favoritism? Edict of Milan (313) -- 1.2 Law: The Theodosian Code (438) -- 1.3 Plague: Gregory the Great, Letter to Bishop Dominic of Carthage (600) -- Heresy and Orthodoxy -- 1.4 Heretics: A Donatist Sermon (c.318) -- 1.5 Orthodoxy's declaration: The Nicene Creed (325) -- Patristic Thought -- 1.6 Relating this world to the next: Augustine, The City of God (413-426) -- 1.7 Monasticism: The Benedictine Rule (c.530-c.560) -- Saintly Models -- 1.8 The virginal life: Jerome, Letter 24 (To Marcella) (384) -- 1.9 The eremetical life: Athanasius, Life of St. Antony of Egypt (357) -- 1.10 The active life: Sulpicius Severus, The Life of St. Martin of Tours (397) -- 1.11 St. Radegund as ascetic: Venantius Fortunatus, The Life of St. Radegund (before c.600) -- 1.12 St. Radegund as relic collector: Baudonivia, The Life of St. Radegund (c.600) -- Barbarian Kingdoms -- 1.13 Gothic Italy as Rome's heir: Cassiodorus, Variae (State Papers) (c.507-536) -- 1.14 Gothic Spain converts: The Third Council of Toledo (589) -- 1.15 Merovingian Gaul's bishop-historian: Gregory of Tours, History (576-594) -- Chapter 2: The Emergence of Sibling Cultures (c.600-c.750) -- The Resilience of Byzantium -- 2.1 Byzantine village life and the education of a saint: The Life of St. Theodore of Sykeon (7th c.) -- 2.2 The argument for icons: John of Damascus, On Holy Images (730s or early 750s) -- 2.3 The iconoclastic argument: The Synod of 754 -- 2.4 Vilifying the iconoclasts: The Chronicle of Theophanes Confessor (before 818) -- The Formation of the Islamic World -- 2.5 Pre-Islamic Arabic poetry: Al-A'sha, Bid Hurayra Farewell (before 625) -- 2.6 The sacred text: Qur'an Suras 1, 53:1-18, 81, 87, 96, 98 (c.610-622) -- 2.7 Umayyad diplomacy: The Treaty of Tudmir (713) -- 2.8 Taxation: A Tax Demand in Egypt (710) -- 2.9 Praising the caliph: Al-Akhtal, The Tribe Has Departed (c.692) -- The Impoverished but Inventive West -- 2.10 A world explained by words: Isidore of Seville, Etymologies (c.615-c.630) -- 2.11 A modern martyr in Francia: The Passion of Leudegar (680s) -- 2.12 The settlement of disputes: Judgment of Childebert III (709 or 710) -- 2.13 Reforming the Continental church: Letters to Boniface (723-726) -- 2.14 Creating a Roman Christian identity for England: Bede, The Ecclesiastical History of the English People (731) Chapter 7: Discordant Harmonies (c.1250-c.1350) -- East Central Europe in Flux -- 7.1 The Mongol Challenge: The Secret History of the Mongols (first half of the 13th c.) -- 7.2 A Mongol reply to the pope: Guyuk Khan, Letter to Pope Innocent IV (1246) -- 7.3 The Hungarian king bewails the Mongol invasions: Bela IV, Letter to Pope Innocent IV (c.1250) -- 7.4 Poland as a frontier society: The Henrykow Book (c.1268) -- 7.5 The Lithuanian duke flirts with Christianity: Duke Gediminas, Letter to Pope John XXII (1322) and Letter to the Burghers of Lubeck, Rostock, Stralsund, Griefswald, Stettin, and Gotland (May 26, 1323) -- 7.6 Pagan Lithuania in Christian Europe: Peter of Dusburg, Chronicle of the Prussian Land (c.1320-1326) -- 7.7 Bulgaria claims a saint: The Short Life of St. Petka (Paraskeve) of Tarnov (13th c.) -- 7.8 Bulgaria and Venice regularize commercial relations: Oath and Treaty (1347) -- Transformations in the Cities -- 7.9 The popolo gains power: The Ghibelline Annals of Piacenza (1250) -- 7.10 The Hanseatic League: Decrees of the League (1260-1264) -- 7.11 Food scarcity at Constantinople: Athanasius I, Patriarch of Constantinople, Letter (1306-1307) -- 7.12 Too big to fail? A Great Bank Petitions the City Council of Siena (1298) -- Heresies and Persecutions -- 7.13 Inquisition: Jacques Fournier, Episcopal Register (1318-1325) -- 7.14 Procedures for isolating lepers: Sarum Manual (based on materials from c.1360s) -- 7.15 Jews in England: Statute of the Jewry (1275) and Petition of the "Commonalty" of the Jews (shortly after 1275) -- Rulers and Ruled -- 7.16 A charismatic ruler: Joinville, The Life of St. Louis (1272) -- 7.17 The commons participate: Summons of Representatives of Shires and Towns to Parliament (1295) -- 7.18 The pope throws down the gauntlet: Boniface VIII, Clericis laicos (1296) -- 7.19 The pope reacts again: Boniface VIII, Unam sanctam (1302) -- 7.20 The French king responds to Boniface: William of Plaisians, Charges of Heresy against Boniface VIII (1303) -- 7.21 Assembly of the Estates General in Paris: Grand Chronicles of France (1314) -- Modes of Thought, Feeling, and Devotion -- 7.22 Scholasticism: Thomas Aquinas, Summa against the Gentiles (1259-1264) -- 7.23 The vernacular comes into its own: Dante, Inferno, Canto V (Paolo and Francesca); Paradiso, Canto XXII (Meeting with St. Benedict) (1313-1321) -- 7.24 Medieval drama: Directions for an Annunciation Play (14th c.) -- 7.25 The feast of Corpus Christi: The Life of Juliana of Mont-Cornillon (1261-1264) -- Chapter 8: Catastrophe and Creativity (c.1350-c.1500) -- The Plague -- 8.1 A medical view: Nicephorus Gregoras, Roman History (1350s) -- 8.2 Processions at Damascus: Ibn Battuta, Travels (before 1368) -- 8.3 Prayers at York: Archbishop William, Letter to His Official at York (July 1348) -- 8.4 Blaming the Jews: Heinrich von Diessenhoven, On the Persecution of the Jews (c.1350) -- 8.5 A legislative response: Ordinances against the Spread of Plague at Pistoia (1348) -- The Ottomans -- 8.6 A Turkish hero: Ashikpashazade, Othman Comes to Power (late 15th c.) -- 8.7 Diplomacy: Peace Agreement between the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II and the Signoria of Venice (January 25, 1478) -- Byzantium: Decline and Fall -- 8.8 Before the fall: Patriarch Anthony, Letter to the Russian Church (1395) -- 8.9 The fall bewailed: George Sphrantzes, Chronicle (before 1477) -- 8.10 After the fall: Archbishop Genady of Novgorod and Dmitry Gerasimov, The Tale of the White Cowl (end of the 15th c.) -- War and Social Unrest -- 8.11 Chivalric and non-chivalric models: Froissart, Chronicles (c.1400) -- 8.12 National feeling: Jeanne d'Arc, Letter to the English (1429) -- 8.13 Patriotism in Italy: Petro Gentili's Speech to the Council and Citizens of Lucca (1397) -- 8.14 The commons revolt: Wat Tyler's Rebellion (after 1381) -- Crises and Changes in the Church and Religion -- 8.15 The conciliarist movement: Jean Gerson, Sermon at the Council of Constance (1415) -- 8.16 Taking part in the life of Christ: The Book of Margery Kempe (c.1430) -- 8.17 The Hussite program: The Four Articles of Prague (1420) -- The Renaissance -- 8.18 Re-evaluating antiquity: Cincius Romanus, Letter to His Most Learned Teacher Franciscus de Fiana (1416) -- 8.19 A new theory of art: Leon Battista Alberti, On Painting (1435-1436) -- 8.20 Defending women: Christine de Pisan, The Book of the City of Ladies (1404-1407) -- Finding a New World -- 8.21 A new kind of map: Gabriel de Valseca, Portolan Map (1447) -- 8.22 Taking Mexico: Hernan Cortes, The Second Letter (1520)

With the pendulum of war swinging in Russia's favor and the Western alliance only now clearing the way for more aid to Ukraine, many have been waiting for the Institute for the Study of War to offer its take on who is to blame and what is to be done. ISW has been one of the most referenced think tanks in mainstream media reporting on the war in Ukraine and has played a prominent role in creating and sustaining war optimism in the West in 2022 and 2023. Its daily battlefield reports have repeatedly played up Ukrainian victories and emphasized Russian failures and losses, almost always uncritically reproducing the version received from Kyiv.Such reporting is unsurprising when we consider the specific nature of ISW as a think tank. Funded by important military contractors in America's military industrial complex such as General Dynamics, DynCorps International, and CACI International, ISW is also a creation of the "Kagan industrial complex." It was founded by Kimberly Kagan, the wife of military historian Frederick Kagan, who in turn is the brother of Robert Kagan — co-founder of the infamous neo-conservative think tank the Project for a New American Century. It would be remiss not to mention that Robert Kagan is married to none other than Victoria Nuland, who was until recently heading up the U.S. State Department's policy on Ukraine and Europe.Given the hawkish and neoconservative ideological bent of ISW's leadership, one would not expect their stance on the war in Ukraine to change even in the light of new developments. Yet, its recent report "Denying Russia's Only Strategy for Success" is a remarkable double down. Not only does it present the recent deterioration of Ukraine's military prospects as a Kremlin disinformation campaign, it is also a manifesto for military escalation.Instead of examining where the Western alliance has come up short, or any concession of Russia's resilience and adaptation to the challenge of war, the ISW report is squarely focused on the apparent superpowers the Kremlin enjoys in the domain of "perception manipulation." It claims the Kremlin "floods Western discourse with false and irrelevant narratives" to condition Western publics to "freely reason to a conclusion that Russia's prevailing in Ukraine is inevitable." Reviewing the references the report is based on, it is clear the authors have no direct proof of Kremlin activity. Their work mostly relies on other ISW reports and cites tweets by Elon Musk and David Sacks or cherry-picked media articles as evidence of Westerners being duped by Russia. Unpacking the central thesis of Russian disinformation, the report goes on to claim that the West has a vast superiority over Russia in terms of resources and technology and that all that is needed to defeat Vladimir Putin is "strategic clarity." As ISW are experts in military history, it seems incredible they have forgotten the numerous historical examples of countries with superior GDP being defeated by economically and technically inferior opponents. Sidestepping such inconvenient points, the ISW report focuses on the West's loss of clarity — be it the genuine divisions and fear within NATO or distractions caused by other issues. The blame for this is placed squarely on the Kremlin, implying that Russia has almost superhuman capacities to control Western perception. Unsurprisingly, the report urges Westerners (referred to as "we" and "us" throughout the text) to blow this Kremlin-induced fog from their minds. In other words, if only the West can eradicate "defeatism," return to its core "values" and "virtues" and understand the true nature of the Russian threat is in its disinformation capacities, then the rest will be simple. The Western alliance will bridge its "need gap" and produce a "surge" in support to Ukraine to ruin Putin's dream of a Russian victory. Once again, there is not a single sentence here that refers to the real war-making capacities of NATO or Ukraine. Where do the munitions come from? What about the manpower? Which NATO members are ready to step up their commitment? The ISW report fits into the previous track record of poor quality military analysis from neo-conservative think tanks on the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. One must conclude that the purpose of this ISW report is in fact to boost the morale of analysts overwhelmed by pessimistic questions about the war's new trajectory. Indeed, the ISW report dismisses talk of peace as "surrender" to Putin. It also rejects those concerned about escalation and a NATO-Russia war and explicitly saying that the West must escalate to resist Putin's aggression. Failure to resist is tantamount to surrender.The discourse of discrediting previous Western diplomacy with Russia as cowardly and failed appeasement is well-established and repeated in the report. ISW goes one step further by calling for the rejection of all "Russian premises" in understanding the conflict in Ukraine. This is a sure way to ensure there can be no basis for any negotiations with Russia.This brings us to the crucial final part of the report where, having "debunked" a spectrum of points as merely part of the Kremlin's grand perception manipulation campaign, the authors outline the logical next step in the war: a new escalation. The first part is to "deny Russia's sanctuaries," by which the authors mean encouraging Ukraine to have free rein in attacking targets inside the Russian Federation. Second, they call for NATO to support new forms of asymmetric warfare to catch Russia off guard and somehow offset their increasing dominance on the frontlines. Finally, the report vaguely calls for the West to "target Russia's capability globally," which appears to advocate espionage, political and economic warfare, and perhaps even terrorism. In summary, the report advocates blowing up various targets connected to Russia in the hope this derails their summer offensive in Ukraine. ISW has issued a clear call for the West to fearlessly up the ante against Russia. In reading it, one recalls the strong influence ISW has had up to this point in shaping perceptions of the war in Ukraine. What is striking is the way the group has revealed its own hand as a crucial agent not in supplying objective and accurate military reports but in waging information warfare. One could even say that ISW itself "floods Western discourse" to condition U.S. public opinion to "freely conclude" that it is necessary to escalate against Russia. Although deeper research is needed, it would seem likely that ISW is far more successful in spreading discourses on the war than any Kremlin agency. Indeed, Russia has no equivalent to ISW's global influence and reach in the information domain. The Kremlin's presentation of its war aims or ability to contest key points has been clearly weak in the West. Despite all the ISW claims, it appears that Russia has long given up on serious "perception manipulation" in the West in favor of hard power. As a debacle looms for the Western alliance in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War is offering a Plan B of escalation to solve the current situation. With the anniversary of NATO this month, we can expect their arguments will be heard in various meetings across the Western world. One only hopes the counter-argument for restraint can be made without being shouted down as a Kremlin propaganda tactic.

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Armed conflict and violence seldom erupt overnight, even when their visible effects seem to take many off-guard. More likely, they stem from deep-rooted, entrenched fault lines that may not always be obvious or visible because they go back decades—if not longer. Effectively mitigating the eruption or recurrence of conflict requires identifying, analyzing, and tackling the root causes of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV)—not just what happens but why it happens.

Structural factors of FCV are systemic characteristics that underpin a country's economic, political, institutional, security, and societal evolution. They range from historical legacies and narratives to norms and values and include geography, subnational disparities, demographic trends, and many more. They may be simmering beneath the surface, deemed latent, as if no longer relevant or even self-evident, to the extent that one may not assess their full ramifications in the current context.

In the Lake Chad region, where armed conflict has been fueled by deep-rooted fragility and grievances, some groups, such as the "montagnards" from the Mandara Mountains and the Buduma, have been historically disenfranchised and still face regular barriers to representation in decision-making processes and development dividends. Geography is another important structural factor. As shown in the Lake Chad regional RRA with the exception of the capital N'Djamena, the Lake Chad region is remotely located which has fostered a sentiment of political isolation coupled with economic marginalization.

Past instances of armed conflict generate historical legacies, even when a generation or more has elapsed since violent events. Trauma, often inter-generational and collective, heals through acknowledging wrongdoings and reparative justice. In addition to direct survivors and families of victims, their descendants and the community at large can connect with the memory of violent events and how remnants of discrimination and stigmatization may still be perceived, long after these historical occurrences. Historical legacies shape a memory and group identity. It further contributes to a narrative where an individual's access to opportunities may be interpreted through the lens of whether they belong to the group of former perpetrators or survivors.

While underlying, persistent patterns of exclusion and a sense of injustice feed into strong local feelings, collective narratives, and psyche about significant elements of a society, structural factors of FCV do not necessarily determine the trajectory of a region, country, or locality. They are instead constitutive to the history and fabric of a context and, as such, shape a core part of its specificity. Think of rhizome more than direct causality.

There are many examples of this. For instance, territorial imbalances greatly contribute to inequalities and grievances. Analysts point out a crisis of pastoralism at the heart of nomadic herders' grievances in the Sahel, as well as zero-sum tendencies that prevent wider inclusion. Regional inequalities, between coastal and landlocked Saharan and Sahelian provinces, have various ramifications, such as on economic diversification, identity formation, and center-periphery relations.

Another example is the way in which governance systems inherited from colonial times have contributed to perpetuating contested and/or exclusionary patterns in settings affected by FCV. Guiding questions that may be helpful to unpack these connections include: To what extent did a colonial administration influence central or federal trajectories and power-sharing? Did independence occur as a result of a peaceful negotiation or from violent guerrilla warfare which institutionalized top-down, one-party "winner take all" mindsets? Did major milestones include and benefit all or only a few?

The recently completed Guinea Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA) outlined the country's experimentation with different forms of governance, such as socialism. The country's exposure to various models has deeply influenced Guineans' yearning for equality and their low acceptance of economic stratification, which can still be perceived today.

How can we adjust our lens not just to the last unconstitutional change of government but to review core features that have defined a country's entire post-independence period? We cannot address the root causes of FCV unless we understand why events happen. This not only helps to mitigate their impact more effectively but also to prevent their recurrence in the future. Capturing structural factors of FCV entails augmenting a standard stakeholder mapping or conflict analysis with a recognition of these complex, intertwined connections, and the role of people's perceptions in fueling deep-rooted grievances. In line with the World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence, it requires attention to the following:

Mobilizing various disciplines to understand a society, its constitutive forces, and pressure points. Armed conflict and violence rarely arise simply because of economic failures and asymmetries. Rather, they stem out of power dynamics as well as actual and perceived exclusion factors. To measure them, one should understand that the structure of the economy, the country's history, geography, culture, and social divisions, set entrenched patterns and require thinking outside the realm of traditional disciplines.
Valuing people's perceptions as much as objective measures of wellbeing and development. As the 2018 Pathways for Peace report demonstrated, inequalities and perceptions of exclusions between groups matter just as much, and often more, than inequalities between rich and poor. Perception and subjectivity play a critical role in shaping people's sentiments and appraisal of inequalities and exclusion. As such, it is often not only about what happened, but how it was perceived, interpreted, digested, and narrated by the people who experienced it. Therefore, one key challenge for practitioners is often one of data. Simply put, do we have the right data to dig deeper and wider
Accepting the compounding and dynamic aspects of conflict and risks. Structural factors of FCV are mostly static but they are not relegated to the past. The extent to which these simmering attributes interact with the present makes them "living" and ever-present in the backdrop of fragile and conflict-affected situations.
This web of connections between past and present, structural, and more acute experiences of state formation and contestations, illustrates that societies are not frozen in time—they live, breathe, and evolve. They also remember. In addition to spatial, social, cultural, and economic features, structural factors of FCV influence path dependency—a historically-influenced course from which sets a rigid route—and behavioral patterns that unfold and repeat through time. They resist change and sometimes build up over time, like the sediment of a riverbed. If we don't integrate them into a risk-informed approach and engagement, we, as development practitioners, miss critical depth and breadth, two essential parameters to effectively diagnose and tackle the root causes of FCV.









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Farah Abdessamad
Consultant, Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group
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Catherine Defontaine
Senior Operations Officer - Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group
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Dave


October 04, 2023

Very insightful article.






Catherine


October 27, 2023

Thank you!

Ten years after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan and Indonesia, a new connectivity initiative was unveiled with great fanfare by the United States, India, and the Arab Gulf and European countries during the G20 meeting in New Delhi earlier this month.Since the announcement was made without the presence of the Russian and Chinese presidents, it has stirred conflicting interpretations. Some see it as a potential alternative to BRI, while others, pointing to the failure of similar projects backed by Western powers in the past, view it as a paper tiger.Details are still missing, but the project's ambition is enormous. It follows a transregional approach as noted by the White House statement: "Through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), we aim to usher in a new era of connectivity with a railway, linked through ports connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Asia."The idea of this corridor dates back to 2021 and has also been discussed as part of the I2U2 group that includes India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States. Like the BRI, its design vision follows the corridor's logic. This is no surprise. "Corridorization" is the most significant spatial manifestation of infrastructural capitalism and geo-economics since the beginning of this century.Corridorization, which is part of the thriving "minilateralism" space, could be viewed as contradictory because middle powers are trying to navigate between two hardening geopolitical blocs. But the ongoing process of reshaping the global supply chain connectivities created by decades of globalization could make it a viable proposition.The BRI and the IMEC seem to share many similar goals. But there are also critical geographical differences. Most importantly, the new initiative features India, which has never been part of the BRI, as a central cross-regional player amid rearranged geo-imaginations.Each of the parties to the new initiative comes with its own perspective and interest.For the United States, the I2U2 and IMEC serve as platforms for infrastructure investment, bringing together Middle Eastern and South Asian partners and providing an alternative to Chinese projects. Washington sees this approach as an opportunity to encourage its regional partners to take a more active and independent role in shaping the region's future, allowing the United States to reduce its own resource investment while maintaining its presence and influence.For the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the goal is to strengthen their increasingly diversified and multi-networked economic diplomacy covering a wider geography. Both countries are active members of the BRI, and their cooperation with China is growing. Apart from burgeoning trade, they are dialogue partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and will soon become full members of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Both countries are trying to expand their strategic autonomy and vying to become influential regional and international players. Getting involved in multiple new minilateral groupings is a key ingredient of their approach to strengthening their middle power status.As Saudi Arabia opens to the world with a tilt towards China, the UAE has found its new unique selling point in connectivity and multi-alignment. While diverging approaches toward geostrategic and regional issues, particularly China's rising power and global influence, remain a concern, Gulf Arab countries' participation in U.S.-led initiatives reflects their new penchant for equidistance amid U.S.-China competition.Indeed, the United States might see the IMEC as a vehicle to counter China's growing influence in the region. In the Middle East, however, competition and convergence are mixed and less black and white than the increasing U.S.-China bipolarity would suggest. If the United States expects this to be a "counter BRI" move for the region, it will likely be disappointed. Competition in the Indian Ocean could escalate, but potential synergies and convergencies should allow for some degree of mutual accommodation.India, which the United States treats as an "indispensable partner," has been showcasing a good template of multi-alignment for others to follow. It is a member of the Quad and I2U2, both comprising the United States, and it's also a member of BRICS and SCO, with China in both, despite New Delhi's feud with Beijing over border issues. The IMEC adds another thread to its longstanding multi-alignment policy, as it highlights the other connectivity corridor that India is promoting — the International North South Transport Corridor — with Iran and Russia. Together, these projects add value to India's development story and its boast that it is the fastest growing economy in the world.The new economic corridor also envisions the potential addition of Israel. This should be seen as a step in the renewed U.S. efforts to expand the Abraham Accords by facilitating the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations. This form of regional engagement also allows Israel to manage tensions with the United States, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the politics of a far-right coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.For Israel and the United States, expanding the Abraham Accords, especially to include Saudi Arabia, remains a top priority despite Riyadh's insistence on linking the normalization of relations to progress on the two-state solution. There are tentative indications that Netanyahu might agree to some concessions on the Palestinian front, even at the cost of his right-wing coalition falling apart, in order to capitalize and sustain Israel's broader regional integration.For China, which will soon host the first in-person BRI summit in Beijing after major COVID-19 shutdowns, IMEC throws up a challenge and an opportunity. It could dismissively treat the IMEC like the United States has done with the BRI. The other option, as indicated soon after the G20 meeting, is to demonstrate its openness to support multidirectional connectivity, even if it is not part of this corridor, as long as such projects are "open, inclusive, and form synergy," and do not become "geopolitical tools."The last piece in this new connectivity saga would be Europe, especially the Eastern Mediterranean countries. The IMEC is a welcome development because the "Global Gateway," the European Union's own connectivity project, has not gained adequate momentum because European diplomats in Brussels are hesitant about multi-alignment strategies and transregional corridors.While the IMEC is an economic-diplomatic-security interplay, its prospects will depend on its ability to promote connectivity and translate its economic potential into commercial success. Critics have already pointed out that the initiative may be unviable in terms of profit. However, it could also be argued that there are virtues other than economic efficiency. In a world of de-risking and politically induced supply chain shifts, the new corridor could be viewed as a tool for promoting strategic resilience, friendshoring, and tech cooperation, especially for middle powers.

When the BRICS grouping held its annual summit in late August, it was widely covered as a portentous affair that signaled a ripening challenge to the U.S.-led global order. For the first time, the group expanded considerably, reflecting a growing ambition not necessarily shared by each original member. It was reasonable to wonder whether a robust challenge to U.S. hegemony was imminent.For Latin America's largest nation, however, participation in an increasingly assertive BRICS need not conflict with a warm working relationship with Washington. Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva demonstrated as much at last week's UN General Assembly. Indeed, Lula's deft diplomacy turned his country into arguably the biggest winner at the annual gathering of global leaders, showing almost single-handedly that the door is not yet shut on a genuinely independent foreign policy in a moment of heightening superpower tensions. He did so by identifying substantive areas of mutual interest with the United States and taking concrete steps to show flexibility and an openness to dialogue, also with respect to the Ukraine war.When Lula, who began an unprecedented third term in January, announced early in his address on Tuesday that "Brazil is back," he was interrupted by applause from members of the General Assembly, which by tradition Brazil opens. Lula's address emphasized many of the same points he made as Brazil assumed the reins of the G20 in India earlier this month: the urgency of combating climate change, the need to find mediated solutions to armed conflicts, and the importance of reversing growing inequality worldwide. Lula's return to the dais 20 years after his first address as president marked a welcome return to form for Brazil, a country long committed to the UN as a meaningful arena of international diplomacy. Indeed, aside from South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa, Lula was the only BRICS leader to attend this year's General Assembly.Lula used his address to criticize the UN for its inability to preserve its relevance, describing the impasse as he sees it and calling for reforms that he believes can make the body matter more. "The international community must choose: On the one hand, there is the expansion of conflicts, the deepening of inequalities and the erosion of the Rule of Law," he said." On the other, the renewal of multilateral institutions dedicated to promoting peace." He decried sanctions applied unilaterally and the ongoing embargo against Cuba. He also criticized the ineffective insularity of the UN Security Council, discredited by "the actions of its permanent members, who wage unauthorized wars in search of territorial expansion or regime change. Its paralysis is the most eloquent proof of the need and urgency to reform it, giving it greater representativeness and effectiveness." Lula made clear that his nation wants a greater say in a UN that is actually functional and effective, not withdrawal from a body consigned to irrelevance.Lula's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the next day demonstrated his careful and even-handed diplomacy in pursuit of an early end of the war in Ukraine. Brazil, like most Global South states, has prioritized relations with both warring parties as it realizes well the high economic costs of the conflict's continuation. Even though he has clearly criticized Russia's invasion of its much smaller neighbor, he had before this week not met personally with Zelenskyy. Finally having done so, Lula has bolstered his claim to fairness and balance.For his part, and from a different angle, President Joe Biden argued for the continued importance of the UN. He called the lack of further world wars, the ascension of hundreds of millions out of poverty, and the eradication of several devastating diseases "a profound testament to what we can achieve when we act together when we take on tough challenges." U.S. health assistance in Africa — such as PEPFAR and fighting the Ebola epidemic — have been excellent examples in this regard. Biden urged the UN to re-embrace its founding precepts of collaboration, respect for sovereignty, and human rights and seemed to signal support for a reform of multilateral institutions to reflect shifting international dynamics. He also spoke of strengthening democratic values around the world. In these areas, his message aligned with Lula's.The following day, Lula and Biden held a bilateral meeting to discuss a host of issues, but most importantly to announce a new joint effort related to workers' rights. "Over the last few days," Biden said by way of introducing the initiative, "the nations of the world have talked about climate change, sustainable development, food security, economic resilience." The president noted the centrality of working people to each one of these challenges and concluded that "we have to empower them as well. And that's what this new partnership is all about." Pointing at Lula, he added, "the partnership actually was this man's idea." While both leaders talked about the importance of union protections, living wages, pensions, and other basic rights often denied in the modern economy — Lula's labor minister also took the opportunity to sit down with members of the United Auto Workers to discuss the ongoing strike and working conditions in the United States — it remains to be seen what concretely will come from this new undertaking. Nevertheless, its importance should not be underestimated. More than anything, it marks an identifiable point of convergence between Brasília and Washington, an issue on which both leaders are personally and politically invested. Durable, productive ties between nations require such investment. A willingness to collaborate in this area — or even just to be seen committing to collaboration — is a positive sign. However, the Biden-Lula convergence on global labor standards may not be aligned with many Global South states, especially in Asia, who see the U.S. push for such standards as protectionism in disguise.Labor was not the only area in which members of the Brazilian delegation sought to make clear that it still very much wants to engage with the United States. Climate action was another. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad held multiple meetings with activists, government officials, and investors to pitch them on green investments in Brazil. Before flying to New York, Haddad gave an interview in which he praised Biden's economic agenda and said there was absolutely no reason the United States shouldn't see Brazil as a key trading partner — not least because, as he noted, "China is entering America through the Southern Cone." Minister of the Environment Marina Silva held several meetings as well, emphasizing Brazil's role in mitigating the effects of climate change. Together, these efforts underscored Lula's attempts to show that Brazil's embrace of a multipolar world does not mean it is eager to turn its back on the United States. That Brazil is finding meaningful areas of collaboration with countries of various ideological and political stripes indicates that international relations in Latin America have not yet ossified into the rigid opposing camps that would characterize a new cold war.It might serve as a model, in fact, for countries looking to avoid one.

Good cities reward those who walk, looking outwards and upwards, and reflecting on the paths taken and on the sauntering asides that open an easy relationship with the city and its neighbourhoods. The Spanish paseo and the Italian passeggiata are, of course, as much about meeting friends and family as about using the connecting streets and passageways between one part of the city and another, and such act of walking is liberating, enjoyable and important in the making of place. Belfast does not, in many neighbourhoods, have that easy, social connectivity. The once easy cross-city network of minor streets is, in large part, gone. Interface walls, motorways, and other barriers and separation devices are not overtly visible in the commercial city core but continue to define key emblematic neighbourhoods. And the growth of small-scale political tourism manifested in several bus, black-taxi trails and short neighbourhood walks to visit the interface areas and their walls, have potential result, unfortunately, that such walls, as artefacts of conflict, could tend towards permanence. As one of many post-conflict cities, Belfast is still emerging from its historical and localised condition of manifested deep-seated sectarianism, where identities and allegiances are linked to a strongly held sense of ownership of territory. Hence, the reluctance to build in void spaces that could help resolve the housing crisis and be model for housing-led regeneration and model for development-partnering for change with the public, private and community sectors. The once daily reality in the small nurture-field city-of-camouflage and the desire for a more-connected city and neighbourhood does, however, have creative possibility, where conflict, friction, and collaborative opportunity – the collision and kiss of confluence – as creative act, can influence and impact one upon the other, that, as we know, sparks fly: alight. The spirit of self-help and community resilience, the confluence of history, cultural continuity, and an urgent need to act remains an opportunity for transformative change: for the making of new ground in an emerging city-form. ; Las buenas ciudades recompensan a quienes caminan, mirando hacia fuera y hacia arriba, y reflexionando sobre los caminos recorridos y sobre los paseos que abren una relación fácil con la ciudad y sus barrios. El paseo español y la passeggiata italiana tienen que ver tanto con el encuentro con los amigos y la familia como con el uso de las calles y pasillos que conectan una parte de la ciudad con otra, y ese acto de caminar es liberador, agradable e importante en la creación del lugar. En muchos barrios de Belfast no existe esa fácil conectividad social. La red de calles secundarias que antes cruzaba la ciudad ha desaparecido en gran parte. Los muros de interconexión, las autopistas y otras barreras y dispositivos de separación no son abiertamente visibles en el núcleo comercial de la ciudad, pero siguen definiendo barrios emblemáticos clave. Y el crecimiento del turismo político a pequeña escala, que se manifiesta en varias rutas de autobuses, taxis negros y pequeños paseos por los barrios para visitar las zonas de interfaz y sus muros, tiene como resultado potencial, por desgracia, que dichos muros, como artefactos del conflicto, podrían tender a la permanencia. Como una de las muchas ciudades en situación de posconflicto, Belfast aún está saliendo de su condición histórica y localizada de sectarismo profundamente arraigado y manifiesto, en el que las identidades y las lealtades están vinculadas a un fuerte sentido de propiedad del territorio. De ahí la reticencia a construir en espacios vacíos que podrían ayudar a resolver la crisis de la vivienda y ser un modelo de regeneración dirigido por la vivienda y un modelo de asociación para el desarrollo con los sectores público, privado y comunitario. Sin embargo, la realidad antaño cotidiana en la pequeña ciudad de camuflaje y el deseo de una ciudad y un barrio más conectados tiene una posibilidad creativa, en la que el conflicto, la fricción y la oportunidad de colaboración -la colisión y el beso de la confluencia- como acto creativo, pueden influir e impactar unos sobre otros, que, como sabemos, saltan chispas: encendidas. El espíritu de autoayuda y la resistencia de la comunidad, la confluencia de la historia, la continuidad cultural y la necesidad urgente de actuar siguen siendo una oportunidad para el cambio transformador: para la creación de un nuevo terreno en una forma de ciudad emergente. ; As boas cidades recompensam aqueles que nela caminham, olhando para fora e para cima, e refletindo sobre os caminhos percorridos e sobre os passeios que abrem uma relação fácil com a cidade e seus bairros. O paseo espanhol e o passeggiata italiana são, é claro, tanto para encontrar amigos e familiares quanto para o uso das ruas e passagens de interligação entre uma parte da cidade e outra, e esse ato de caminhar é libertador, agradável e importante na construção do lugar. Belfast não tem, em muitos bairros, essa conectividade social fácil. A rede de ruas secundárias que cruzava a cidade, em grande parte, já não existe. Muros de interface, rodovias e outras barreiras e dispositivos de separação, não plenamente visíveis no centro comercial da cidade, continuam a definir bairros emblemáticos chave. E o crescimento do turismo político em pequena escala, manifesto em vários ônibus, trilhas de táxis pretos e passeios curtos pelos bairros para visitar as áreas de interface e seus muros, apresentam como resultado potencial, infelizmente, a tendência da permanência desses muros como artefatos de conflito. Como uma das muitas cidades pós-conflito, Belfast ainda está emergindo de sua condição histórica e localizada de sectarismo profundamente enraizado, onde as identidades e lealdades estão ligadas a um forte senso de propriedade do território. Daí a relutância em construir espaços vazios que poderiam ajudar a resolver a crise habitacional e ser modelo para uma regeneração urbana que, liderada pela habitação, se constituísse em modelo de desenvolvimento de parcerias de a mudança das relações entre os setores público, privado e comunitário. A realidade outrora cotidiana da pequena cidade-campo-de-camuflagem e o desejo de uma cidade e bairros mais conectados tem, no entanto, possibilidades criativas onde o conflito, o atrito e a oportunidade de colaboração - a colisão e o beijo da confluência - como ato criativo, podem influenciar e impactar um sobre o outro. Como sabemos, as faíscas voam: acendem-se. O espírito de autoajuda e a resiliência da comunidade, a confluência da história, a continuidade cultural e uma necessidade urgente de agir continuam sendo uma oportunidade para uma mudança transformadora: para a construção de um novo território em uma forma emergente de cidade.