Suchergebnisse

The paper presents a simple model of the future development of incomes and expenses of the old-age pension system in the Czech Republic (so called 1st pillar). The projection is based on the results of the latest available population projection published by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013. The expected number of employees (payers of the old-age insurance premium) is estimated on the basis of the sex and age structure of people in productive age and expected employment rates. All people at the age higher than retirement age are expected to receive old-age pension. The permanent increase of retirement age according to the present legislation is assumed. The computations show that the financial deficit of the old-age pension system would reach maximum values in the fifties when the numerous generations born in the seventies of the last century will reach the pension age. But in the last two decades of the present century the proportion of pensioners would be lower than at present times. Adapted from the source document.

The long-term sustainability of the public finance in the context of population ageing is becoming a hot topic in most of the European countries including the Czech Republic. Moreover the Czech population will be one of the oldest in the world according to the forecasts of different institutions (UN, OECD, etc.). It poses challenge for the Czech pension security scheme. This paper presents possible scenarios of the future development & illustrates future fiscal impacts of the ageing assuming a preservation of the current Czech pension security scheme in the period up to 2050. The analysis is based on a detailed one-year age structure. This allows us to simulate the influence of the changes in component parameters of the current scheme on its future situation (for example, changes in retirement age limits). The main conclusion is that there is a rather small impact of these parameters changes on the expected future imbalance of the Czech pension system. Therefore a more fundamental reform of the current pension system should be considered. Tables, Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.