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Seasonal waves of influenza display a complex spatiotemporal pattern resulting from the interplay of biological, sociodemographic, and environmental factors. At country level many studies characterized the robust properties of annual epidemics, depicting a typical season. Here we analyzed season-by-season variability, introducing a clustering approach to assess the deviations from typical spreading patterns. The classification is performed on the similarity of temporal configurations of onset and peak times of regional epidemics, based on influenza-like-illness time-series in France from 1984 to 2014. We observed a larger variability in the onset compared to the peak. Two relevant classes of clusters emerge: groups of seasons sharing similar recurrent spreading patterns (clustered seasons) and single seasons displaying unique patterns (monoids). Recurrent patterns exhibit a more pronounced spatial signature than unique patterns. We assessed how seasons shift between these classes from onset to peak depending on epidemiological, environmental, and socio-demographic variables. We found that the spatial dynamics of influenza and its association with commuting, previously observed as a general property of French influenza epidemics, apply only to seasons exhibiting recurrent patterns. The proposed methodology is successful in providing new insights on influenza spread and can be applied to incidence time-series of different countries and different diseases. ; The work was partially supported by the EC-Health contract no. 278433 (PREDEMICS) to PC, CP and VC and by the French ANR project HarMS-flu (ANR-12-MONU-0018) to PC and VC. PC also acknowledges partial support from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement 682540 - TransMID).

To manage cases of avian influenza A/H5N1 virus infection and in anticipation of a pandemic triggered by this virus, Indonesia purchased and distributed oseltamivir to the government health facilities. Oseltamivir is an antiviral drug that was developed for the treatment of influenza infections. Disease surveillance and research suggests that seasonal influenza (A/H1N1, A/H3N2 or B) results in considerable morbidity and mortality in Indonesia, where over 15% of influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness patients test positive for the influenza virus. Indonesia currently limits oseltamivir for the management of avian influenza A/ H5N1cases and in anticipation of a pandemic triggered by the A/H5N1 virus. We present the evidence for the use of oseltamivir in the treatment of seasonal influenza infections so that doctors have the option to prescribe the drug. We propose that the benefits of this approach will largely outweigh the risk of antiviral resistance. We recommend that oseltamivir be available for administration to patients with seasonal influenza infections especially for those hospitalized and for groups with high risk of complications and adverse outcomes. Overall, this will reduce morbidity and mortality of seasonal influenza.Key words: antiviral, policy, Indonesia, influenza, treatment.

A cross-sectional survey was undertaken with the European Union (EU) Member States and Norway and Iceland to describe seasonal influenza immunisation in the 2006-7 season, in particular to identify country-specific recommendations for risk groups, obtain vaccine uptake information and allow comparison with global recommendations. A standardised questionnaire was completed electronically by each country's project gatekeeper. Of the 29 countries surveyed, 28 recommended seasonal influenza vaccination for older age groups (22 for those aged > 65 years), and in one country vaccine was recommended for all age groups. All countries recommended vaccinating patients with chronic pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases and most countries advised to immunise patients with haematologic or metabolic disorders (n=28), immunologic disorders (n=27) and renal disease (n=27), as well as residents of long-term care facilities (n=24). Most countries recommended vaccination for staff in hospitals (n=25), long-term care facilities (n=25) and outpatient clinics (n=23), and one-third had such recommendations for workers in essential (n=10), military (n=10) and veterinary services (n=10) and poultry industry (n=13). Eight countries recommended vaccine for pregnant women; and five advised to vaccinate children (with age limits ranging from 6 months to 5 years). Twenty countries measured influenza vaccine uptake among those aged > 65 years (range 1.8%-82.1%), seven reported uptake in healthcare workers (range 14%-48%) and seven assessed coverage in persons with underlying medical conditions (range 27.6%-75.2%). The data provided by this study can assist EU states to assess and compare their influenza vaccination programme performance with other countries. The information provides a comprehensive overview of policies and programmes and their outcomes and can be used to inform joint discussions on how the national policies in the EU might be standardised in the future to achieve optimal coverage. Annual surveys could be used to monitor changes in these national policies.

Globally there are an estimated 3–5 million cases of severe influenza illness every year, resulting in 250,000–500,000 deaths. At the World Health Assembly in 2003, World Health Organization (WHO) resolved to increase influenza vaccine coverage rates (VCR) for high-risk groups, particularly focusing on at least 75% of the elderly by 2010. But systematic worldwide data have not been available to assist public health authorities to monitor vaccine uptake and review progress toward vaccination coverage targets. In 2008, the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations Influenza Vaccine Supply task force (IFPMA IVS) developed a survey methodology to assess global influenza vaccine dose distribution. The current survey results represent 2011 data and demonstrate the evolution of the absolute number distributed between 2004 and 2011 inclusive, and the evolution in the per capita doses distributed in 2008–2011. Global distribution of IFPMA IVS member doses increased approximately 86.9% between 2004 and 2011, but only approximately 12.1% between 2008 and 2011. The WHO's regions in Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO), Southeast Asian (SEARO) and Africa (AFRO) together account for about 47% of the global population, but only 3.7% of all IFPMA IVS doses distributed. While distributed doses have globally increased, they have decreased in EURO and EMRO since 2009. Dose distribution can provide a reasonable proxy of vaccine utilization. Based on the dose distribution, we conclude that seasonal influenza VCR in many countries remains well below the WHA's VCR targets and below the recommendations of the Council of the European Union in EURO. Inter- and intra-regional disparities in dose distribution trends call into question the impact of current vaccine recommendations at achieving coverage targets. Additional policy measures, particularly those that influence patients adherence to vaccination programs, such as reimbursement, healthcare provider knowledge, attitudes, practices, and communications, are required for VCR targets to be met and benefit public health.

Background: There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya. Methods: We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6–23 months (strategy I), 2–5 years (strategy II) and 6–14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1–51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita (USD17–USD872). Results: The mean number of infections across all ages was 2–15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6–23 months ranged between USD749 and USD1385 for strategy IA, USD442 and USD1877 for strategy IB, USD678 and USD4106 for strategy IC and USD1147 and USD7933 for strategy ID. For children 2–5 years, it ranged between USD945 and USD1573 for strategy IIA, USD563 and USD1869 for strategy IIB, USD662 and USD4085 for strategy IIC, and USD1169 and USD7897 for strategy IID. For children 6–14 years, it ranged between USD923 and USD3116 for strategy IIIA, USD1005 and USD2223 for strategy IIIB, USD883 and USD4727 for strategy IIIC and USD1467 and ...

BACKGROUND: There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya. METHODS: We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6–23 months (strategy I), 2–5 years (strategy II) and 6–14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1–51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17–$872). RESULTS: The mean number of infections across all ages was 2–15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6–23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2–5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6–14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination ...

BACKGROUND: There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya. METHODS: We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6-23 months (strategy I), 2-5 years (strategy II) and 6-14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1-51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17-$872). RESULTS: The mean number of infections across all ages was 2-15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6-23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2-5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6-14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit. CONCLUSION: Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Influenza is a highly contagious disease that causes seasonal epidemics with significant morbidity and mortality. The ability to predict influenza peak several weeks in advance would allow for timely preventive public health planning and interventions to be used to mitigate these outbreaks. Because influenza may also impact the operational readiness of active duty personnel, the US military places a high priority on surveillance and preparedness for seasonal outbreaks. A method for creating models for predicting peak influenza visits per total health-care visits (ie, activity) weeks in advance has been developed using advanced data mining techniques on disparate epidemiological and environmental data. The model results are presented and compared with those of other popular data mining classifiers. By rigorously testing the model on data not used in its development, it is shown that this technique can predict the week of highest influenza activity for a specific region with overall better accuracy than other methods examined in this article.

AbstractVaccination is recognised as one of the most effective ways to combat seasonal influenza—a disease that exerts significant social and economic costs, yet is often neglected by policy‐makers and the vaccine target population in developing countries. The situation in China is no exception with seasonal influenza vaccine remaining as a class II vaccine and being financed by citizens' out‐of‐pocket payments. The different cultural backgrounds, climate patterns and living standards across China further complicate the policymaking process of developing national level policy guidelines. Nevertheless, China's recent health care reform that focuses on preventive care, elderly care and equitable health care access has motivated policy‐makers at the local level to formulate policies facilitating seasonal influenza vaccination provision. This article seeks to understand this process at the city level under China's current economic transition background, and aims to identify policy experiences that may be applicable for the larger Asia‐Pacific region.

In Europe, annual influenza vaccination is recommended to elderly. From 2011 to 2014 and in 2015-16, we conducted a multicentre test negative case control study in hospitals of 11 European countries to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory confirmed hospitalised influenza among people aged ≥65years. We pooled four seasons data to measure IVE by past exposures to influenza vaccination. We swabbed patients admitted for clinical conditions related to influenza with onset of severe acute respiratory infection ≤7days before admission. Cases were patients RT-PCR positive for influenza virus and controls those negative for any influenza virus. We documented seasonal vaccination status for the current season and the two previous seasons. We recruited 5295 patients over the four seasons, including 465A(H1N1)pdm09, 642A(H3N2), 278 B case-patients and 3910 controls. Among patients unvaccinated in both previous two seasons, current seasonal IVE (pooled across seasons) was 30% (95%CI: -35 to 64), 8% (95%CI: -94 to 56) and 33% (95%CI: -43 to 68) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B respectively. Among patients vaccinated in both previous seasons, current seasonal IVE (pooled across seasons) was -1% (95%CI: -80 to 43), 37% (95%CI: 7-57) and 43% (95%CI: 1-68) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B respectively. Our results suggest that, regardless of patients' recent vaccination history, current seasonal vaccine conferred some protection to vaccinated patients against hospitalisation with influenza A(H3N2) and B. Vaccination of patients already vaccinated in both the past two seasons did not seem to be effective against A(H1N1)pdm09. To better understand the effect of repeated vaccination, engaging in large cohort studies documenting exposures to vaccine and natural infection is needed. ; The Lithuanian I-MOVE + study sites were supported by a grant from the Research Council of Lithuania (SEN-03/2015). The I-MOVE + project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 634446. GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi Pasteur and Sanofi Pasteur MSD financially supported the InNHOVE network. ; Sí

Background: Influenza is one of the public health burdens in Nepal and its epidemiology is not clearly understood. The objective of this study was to explore the molecular epidemiology and the antigenic characteristics of the circulating influenza viruses in Nepal.Methods: A total of 1495 throat swab specimens were collected from January to December, 2014. Real time PCR assay was used for identification of influenza virus types and subtypes. Ten percent of the positive specimens were randomly selected and inoculated onto Madin-Darby Canine Kidney Epithelial cells (MDCK) for influenza virus isolation. All viruses were characterized by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay.Results: Influenza viruses were detected in 421/1495 (28.2%) specimens. Among positive cases, influenza A virus was detected in 301/421 (71.5%); of which 120 (39.9%) were influenza A/H1N1 pdm09 and 181 (60.1%) were influenza A/H3 subtype. Influenza B viruses were detected in 119/421 (28.3%) specimens. Influenza A/H1N1 pdm09, A/H3 and B viruses isolated in Nepal were antigenically similar to the vaccine strain influenza A/California/07/2009(H1N1pdm09), A/Texas/50/2012(H3N2), A/New York/39/2012(H3N2) and B/Massachusetts/2/2012, respectively.Conclusions: Influenza viruses were reported year-round in different geographical regions of Nepal which was similar to other tropical countries. The circulating influenza virus type and subtypes of Nepal were similar to vaccine candidate virus which could be prevented by currently used influenza vaccine.