Suchergebnisse

Les changements technologiques ont deux effets de premier ordre sur la nature du travail. Premièrement, les nouvelles technologies peuvent entraîner des changements au sein des professions des personnes sur le marché du travail, et, deuxièmement, elles peuvent pousser ces personnes à passer d'une profession à l'autre. Afin de quantifier ces effets, la présente étude procède à un rapprochement des données détaillées sur les professions tirées des recensements canadiens de 2006 et de 2016 avec des données détaillées qui associent chaque profession à des ensembles de tâches, d'activités et de compétences requises pour cette profession. Les résultats révèlent que l'importance des attributs liés aux interactions sociales et aux tâches cognitives non routinières a augmenté de manière considérable. De plus, la majeure partie de cette augmentation s'est produite au sein de professions étroitement définies. Les hommes ont été plus touchés par les changements observés que les femmes.

ABSTRACT  The goal of this paper is twofold. The first goal is to incorporate spatial structure within shift‐share analysis, to take into account interregional interaction in the decomposition analysis. Secondly, this paper develops a taxonomy of regional growth rate decompositions. A taxonomy of the spatial structure is presented; it comprises twenty alternative decomposition structures, including the original standard shift‐share analysis as well as six alternative structures outlined in the taxonomy for non‐spatial structures.

ABSTRACTOne of the limitations to the widespread use of the Esteban‐Marquillas shift‐share extension has been the Stokes (1974) proof of the lack of regional additivity of the Esteban‐Marquillas competitive components. Since the Arcelus extension (1984) of the traditional shift‐share decomposition is a continuation of the logical framework by Esteban‐Marquillas (1972), the Stokes criticism would at first appear to have equal relevance to this new work. This note demonstrates that the relationship between the rate of growth of the larger region and the rates of growth of its constituent subregions is ignored in the Stokes criticism and in the subsequent critique by Beaudry and Martin (1979). By explicitly incorporating the relationship between the rate of growth of the larger region and the rates of growth of the constituent subregions, we also demonstrate that the recent shift‐share extensions by Esteban‐Marquillas and Arcelus share with the classical shift‐share decomposition the desirable additive properties under regional disaggregation of the data.

ABSTRACTMost applications of shift‐share analysis to regional employment change have used a study period of several years and have examined conditions only at the beginning and end years. This comparative static approach does not take into account the continuous changes in both industrial mix and size of total employment of the region over the study period. Calculating the national growth effect, the industrial mix effect, and the competitive effect on an annual basis and then summing the results over the study period provides a more accurate allocation of job changes among the three shift‐share effects. This approach, which we term dynamic shift‐share analysis, also allows unusual years and years of economic transition to he identified. We illustrate the use of dynamic shift‐share by presenting results of an analysis of New England employment growth from 1939 to 1984, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The use of the dynamic form of shift‐share is important when the study period is characterized by either large changes in regional industrial mix or major differences between regional and national growth rates.

The paper argues that criticisms of shift-share techniques are insufficiently strong to affect its application to the analysis of regional growth in the United Kingdom. Evidence for the 11 British regions for 1952-75 is used to demonstrate the robustness of the technique in the context of differing levels of sectoral disaggregation and choice of base years and the technique is then extended to incorporate multiplier and linkage effects. Finally its utility is compared with that of analysis of variance techniques for standardising for industrial structure.

AbstractShift‐share is a popular technique used by policymakers and researchers alike to decompose the change in a variable into within and between effects, intensive and extensive margins, or other comparable effects. One reason for the popularity of shift‐share is its relative simplicity compared to econometric techniques. However, often overlooked is that a shift‐share is actually an index number problem that uses differences instead of ratios. Techniques developed in index number theory accentuate the fact that the traditional shift‐share is biased. This paper proposes using the Bennet index to achieve unbiased measurements in shift‐share decompositions. In addition to solving the bias problem, the Bennet index removes the need for a residual and may be even simpler to calculate. While this paper is primarily theoretical, it also explores the differences between the traditional shift‐share and the Bennet index—both chained and fixed base—to measure the competitive and composition effects of Canada's export performance in the United States since 1990.

AbstractShift‐share analysis is a decomposition technique widely used in regional studies to quantify an industry‐mix effect and a competitive effect on the growth of regional employment (or any other relevant variable) relative to the national average. This technique has always been subject to criticism for its lack of theoretical basis. This paper presents a critical assessment of the methods suggested by Dunn and Esteban‐Marquillas and proposes a new shift‐share method, which separates out the two effects unambiguously. By way of illustration, we provide an application to manufacturing employment in the Belgian provinces between 1995 and 2007.