Suchergebnisse

En el presente proyecto de grado se analizan las medidas e iniciativas que se deben implementar en la ciudad de Bogotá, por parte del gobierno, para incentivar el uso de la bicicleta como medio de transporte, teniendo en cuenta la importancia de este elemento para reducir la congestión vial, apoyar el desarrollo sostenible de la ciudad, mejorar la salud y el bienestar de los ciudadanos reduciendo los impactos negativos causados al medio ambiente. Lo anterior, teniendo en cuenta que en la actualidad se presenta en la ciudad un notable déficit de corredores viales que satisfaga un aumento no planificado de vehículos particulares; sumado a un servicio de transporte masivo cada vez más obsoleto que no cumple con las necesidades de los ciudadanos, que se ven abocados a utilizarlos, a pesar del creciente deterioro en la calidad de aire que están padeciendo las principales ciudades colombianas en especial la ciudad de Bogotá, está motivando a los entes gubernamentales a establecer nuevas políticas, e iniciativas ciudadanas y empresariales para generar una mejor movilidad sin afectar las condiciones ambientales, como son el uso de energías limpias, combustibles menos contaminantes y seguros, uso de medios con mínima o nula producción de emisiones, es en éste punto, donde nace la necesidad de fundamentar nuestra propuesta de realizar un Análisis de la infraestructura existente de ciclorrutas para implementar una red de comunicación ciclística que articulen a través de un circuito las sedes de la Universidad Santo Tomás de las calles 51, 63, 73, la cual beneficiaria a la movilidad de la comunidad estudiantil, docente, administrativa y otros, que hacen parte de la institución quienes a su vez indirectamente deben participar de una manera más comprometida y efectiva a la mejora de la movilidad de la ciudad y el bienestar físico y mental de los ciudadanos que vivimos en ella. Para esto fue indispensable analizar la infraestructura existente, partiendo de su estado actual, problemática y dificultades encontradas a través de su operación, para posteriormente, diseñar una red de bicicarriles en los corredores donde no se contaba con la implementación de la red de conectividad de ciclorrutas con la universidad Santo Tomás sedes calle 52, calle 63 y calle 73. Una vez estructurado el circuito procedimos al diseño de la señalización horizontal y vertical para finalmente adelantar la propuesta tipo de ciclo parqueaderos a implementar en las instalaciones de la universidad y en las áreas circunvecinas. Lastimosamente en el territorio nacional no existe una debida reglamentación actualizada que regule el uso de la bicicleta como un medio de transporte, no obstante, la carencia de una reglamentación específica para la utilización de la bicicleta como medio de transporte, no ha sido un obstáculo para que la ciudad de Bogotá no incluya este medio de transporte en su plan maestro de movilidad (PMM); en donde se busca priorizar los subsistemas de transporte más sostenibles, tales como el transporte público o ir a pie o en bicicleta. Pero es en especial en su capítulo 9 donde se da la relevancia al uso de la bicicleta como un medio de transporte, alternativo que sea parte de la intermovilidad que requiere la ciudad pensada en un futuro. Debido a los esfuerzos y políticas establecidas por las administraciones distritales en la implementación de espacios adecuados (ciclorrutas, bicicarriles) para el tránsito seguro de este medio de transporte (bicicleta), se ha generado un aumento de la población pasando del 1% desde la década de los años 90 al día al 19% de la población de la ciudad en el año 2016 y del 25% en la actualidad, con una satisfacción del 84% de los bici-usuarios. Para la presente propuesta solo se utilizaría 2.6 km de los 392 kilómetros de ciclorrutas que cuenta actualmente la ciudad. Los que conectarán las sedes de calles 52, 63 y 73 de la Universidad Santo Tomas (USTA). Pero lastimosamente al momento de realizar el presente documento se ha establecido que de los 2.6 kilómetros de eje vial a utilizar, el 68% se encuentra en buen estado mientras el 32% se encuentra en mal estado, aumentando el riesgo de los bici-usuarios a sufrir algún tipo de accidente. Es así, que en el marco del desarrollo del proyecto se efectuó una encuesta a los usuarios actuales de este medio de transporte (bicicleta) en la USTA, con el fin, de conocer la percepción del usuario sobre el estado del corredor existente y seguridad del mismo, permitiendo ponderar la percepción de los posibles usuarios frente a la infraestructura que ofrece la ciudad entre las calles 73 y 51 con carrera 13. Por lo anterior, se definió realizar auscultación del pavimento de las ciclorrutas existentes, identificando las fallas existentes, con el fin, de verificar si el grado de percepción del bici usuario corresponde desde el punto de vista técnico y de funcionalidad al estado actual del corredor, una vez realizados los trabajos en campo desde la auscultación visual encontramos que las principales fallas estructurales identificadas en las zonas en mal estado se concentran fisura, grietas transversales y longitudinales que en algunas zonas superan los 3 mm de dilatación. Otras de las fallas identificadas es el desprendimiento de la capa de rodadura, baches en el pavimento flexible y tramos en adoquín, que en un alto porcentaje se concentran en las intersecciones viales a través de pompeyanos, lo que nos permite calificar el sistema actual de ciclorrutas del sector evaluado, como en regular estado. Así mismo consideramos que la movilidad en estos vehículos (bicicletas), se considera una necesidad para un desplazamiento sano, amigable con el ambiente y por qué no referirlo sería el uso más adecuado y factible en momentos de horas pico de la ciudad, funcional para la comunidad estudiantil, docente y administrativa de la Universidad Santo Tomás que diariamente se desplazan entre las sedes de las calles 52, 63 y 73. Por lo anteriormente expuesto, se hace la propuesta de la utilización de 2.624 ml de los corredores existentes en la ciudad y la implementación de cuatro sectores con Bicicarril localizados de los siguientes espacios: • Calle 52 entre las Carreras 7 y 9 con una longitud aproximada de 30 mts • Calle 52 entre las Carreras 9 y 13 con una longitud aproximada de 160 mts • Parque de Lourdes en la calle 63 entre las carreras 13 y 9ª con una longitud aproximada de 160 mts. • Calle 73 entre las carreras 9 y 11 con una longitud aproximada de 210.5 mts. Esta evaluación técnica realizada permitió establecer una propuesta de intervención a la estructura de la ciclorruta así como plantear el diseño de señalización para la misma. Adicionalmente se planteó el fortalecimiento de la capacidad de los cicloparqueaderos localizados en los parqueaderos de las sedes de la Universidad Santo Tomás de la calle 52, Calle 63 y de la calle 73, cada uno con capacidad de 70 zonas de parqueo para bicicletas que actualmente cuenta con una capacidad de 210 cupos de parqueo de bicicletas entre estas sedes ; In the present project of degree it is analyzed the measures and initiatives that must be implemented in the city of Bogota, by the government, to encourage the use of the bicycle as a means of transport, taking into account the importance of this element to reduce the road congestion, support the sustainable development of the city, improve the health and welfare of citizens by reducing the negative impacts caused to the environment. The foregoing, taking into account that there is currently a significant deficit of road corridors in the city that satisfies an unplanned increase in private vehicles; added to a mass transit service increasingly obsolete that does not meet the needs of citizens, who are doomed to use them, despite the increasing deterioration in air quality that are suffering the main cities in Colombia especially the city of Bogotá, is motivating government agencies to establish new policies, and citizen and business initiatives to generate better mobility without affecting environmental conditions, such as the use of clean energy, less polluting and safe fuels, use of means with minimal or no production of emissions, it is at this point, where the need arose to base our proposal to carry out an analysis of the existing infrastructure of bike paths to implement a bicycle communication network that articulates through a circuit the headquarters of the Universidad Santo Tomás de las streets 51, 63, 73, which would benefit the mobility of the community they study useful, educational, administrative and others, who are part of the institution who in turn indirectly must participate in a more committed and effective way to improve the mobility of the city and the physical and mental well-being of the citizens who live there . For this, it was essential to analyze the existing infrastructure, starting from its current state, problems and difficulties encountered through its operation, and then designing a network of bicycle lanes in the corridors where there was not the implementation of the network of connectivity of bike paths with the Santo Tomás University you will find calle 52, calle 63 and calle 73. Once the circuit was structured, we proceeded to the design of the horizontal and vertical signage to finally advance the proposed type of parking lot cycle to be implemented in the university facilities and in the areas surrounding. Unfortunately in the national territory there is no updated regulation that regulates the use of the bicycle as a means of transport, however, the lack of a specific regulation for the use of the bicycle as a means of transport, has not been an obstacle to that the city of Bogotá does not include this means of transportation in its mobility master plan (PMM); where it seeks to prioritize the most sustainable transport subsystems, such as public transport or go on foot or by bicycle. But it is especially in his chapter 9 where the importance is given to the use of the bicycle as a means of transport, an alternative that is part of the intermobility that the city requires in the future. Due to the efforts and policies established by the district administrations in the implementation of adequate spaces (bike paths, bicycle lanes) for the safe transit of this means of transport (bicycle), an increase in the population has been generated, increasing from 1% since the decade from the 90s a day to 19% of the city's population in 2016 and 25% today, with 84% satisfaction of bike-users. For the present proposal only 2.6 km of the 392 kilometers of bike paths that the city currently has will be used. Those that will connect the 52, 63 and 73 streets of the Santo Tomas University (USTA). But unfortunately at the time of making this document has been established that of the 2.6 kilometers of road axis to be used, 68% is in good condition while 32% is in poor condition, increasing the risk of bike-users to suffer some type of accident. Thus, in the framework of the development of the project, a survey was conducted to the current users of this means of transport (bicycle) in the USTA, in order to know the user's perception of the existing corridor status and safety of the same, allowing to weigh the perception of potential users against the infrastructure offered by the city between streets 73 and 51 with career 13. Therefore, it was defined to perform auscultation of the pavement of the existing bike paths, identifying the existing faults, in order to verify if the degree of perception of the user bike corresponds from the technical and functional point of view to the current state of the corridor, Once the field work was done from the visual auscultation, we found that the main structural faults identified in the areas in poor condition are fissures, transverse and longitudinal cracks that in some areas exceed 3 mm of dilatation. Other flaws identified are the detachment of the rolling layer, bumps in the flexible pavement and stretches in cobblestone, which in a high percentage are concentrated in the intersections via Pompeyans, which allows us to qualify the current system of bike paths of the evaluated sector, as in regular state. Likewise, we consider that mobility in these vehicles (bicycles) is considered a necessity for a healthy, environmentally friendly journey and why not referring it would be the most appropriate and feasible use during the peak hours of the city, functional for the student, educational and administrative community of the University Santo Tomás that daily move between the headquarters of the streets 52, 63 and 73. For the previously exposed, the proposal of the use of 2.624 ml of the existent corridors in the city is made and the implementation of four sectors with Bicicarril located in the following spaces: • Street 52 between Carreras 7 and 9 with an approximate length of 30 meters • Street 52 between Carreras 9 and 13 with an approximate length of 160 meters • Lourdes Park on 63rd Street between the 13th and 9th races with an approximate length of 160 meters. • Street 73 between races 9 and 11 with an approximate length of 210.5 meters. This technical evaluation made it possible to establish a proposal of intervention to the structure of the bike path and to propose the signaling design for it. Additionally, the strengthening of the capacity of the cycloparqueaderos located in the parking lots of the headquarters of the Santo Tomás University of 52nd Street, 63rd Street and 73rd Street, each with a capacity of 70 bicycle parking areas, was proposed. with a capacity of 210 parking spaces for bicycles between these venues. ; CRAI-USTA Bogotá ; http://unidadinvestigacion.usta.edu.co

Background: Tropical rain forests are highly biodiverse and provide globally important ecosystem services. In the face of increasing dominance of human-modified landscapes in tropical regions, sustainably managing these forests may contribute to maintain ecosystem integrity while fulfilling society's demand for forest goods. Sustainable forest management is based on the assumption that forest ecosystems are resilient to silvicultural interventions and that their ecosystem functions recover across felling cycles. So far, our understanding of tropical forest responses to silvicultural interventions is rather limited, especially regarding the medium to long-term post-logging recovery. Aims: The aim of this thesis was to analyse the effects of silvicultural intervention intensity and type (harvesting and thinning) on recovery of important forest attributes and functions related to biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and timber provision. In addition to the disturbance regime, vegetation attributes of the remaining forest stand may affect recovery. In less diverse ecosystems, it has been demonstrated that diversity in species or traits may increase resilience to disturbances because species complement each other for resource use (niche-complementarity hypothesis), or dominant species with their traits may drive ecosystem processes (mass-ratio hypothesis). However, such effects have not been investigated yet in relation to the resilience of tropical forests. Here, the effects of niche-complementarity and biomass-ratio hypotheses on biomass resilience were investigated. Research questions: 1. What are the dynamics of tree communities in the process of recovering diversity and composition relative to intervention intensity and type? 2. How is the aboveground biomass recovery affected by disturbance intensity and attributes of the remaining tree community? 3. How is the development of growing stock of commercial timber species affected by silvicultural intervention intensity and type? Study site and experiment: Data analysed in this thesis come from a unique long-term study on management effects on forest ecosystem recovery. The experiment with an area of 180 ha was established in 1981 in the Tapajós National Forest, Pará, Brazil by the forest management group of Embrapa Amazônia Oriental. Trees (DBH ≥ 5 cm) were measured and permanently labelled in 35 permanent sample plots of 0.25 ha each. Eight repeated inventories took place from 1981 to 2012. Additionally, six control plots (0.25 ha) have been monitored in unlogged forest as of 1983. Intervention intensities comprised logging (on average 61 m³ ha−¹) and associated damage to remaining trees (1982) and thinning (1993/1994). These interventions together resulted in a gradient of reduction in basal-area ranging on average from 19 to 53% relative to pre-logging stocks. Analytical approach: Relative recovery of diversity, composition, biomass and timber stocks (in relation to pre-logging conditions) and other response variables (e.g., diversity and recruitment) were compared among intervention intensities, types and to the unlogged control. Furthermore, temporal changes in response variables were investigated in some cases (e.g., composition and growth rates). Effects of post-disturbance tree-community attributes on biomass resilience were further investigated using structural equation modelling. Results and discussion: Tree diversity was not impaired by silvicultural interventions but high intervention intensities (logging followed by medium and high thinning intensities) substantially affected the recovery of tree species composition (DBH ≥ 10 cm). This change in composition was underlined by shifts in the trait-mean of wood density towards lower values overtime, indicating a transition towards pioneer dominated communities. Such change may affect ecosystem functioning, for instance, species interactions due to lower availability of fleshy fruits. Moreover, the reduction of basal area through harvesting damage and thinning had a stronger effect on species composition than logging of mature trees itself. These findings demonstrate that intensive thinning should be avoided and they point to the importance of reduced impact logging for easing damage to retained trees and hence lessen possible unintended changes to tree species composition. These measures may enhance species composition recovery and maintenance of biodiversity at other trophic levels. Stand-level aboveground biomass recovery rates (DBH ≥ 10 cm) were largely determined by basal area remaining and less by post-disturbance composition. Below a post-logging basal area of ca. 23 m² ha−¹ and following intensive thinning interventions, recovery rates were impaired. The weak support for both the niche complementarity and the biomass-ratio hypotheses was possibly related to high functional redundancy in these species-rich forests, or because some species modulate post-intervention biomass recovery rather than overall diversity or community-mean trait values. These results suggest that heavy interventions may impair biomass resilience. Moreover, these forests retained high biomass stocks and fast recovery rates (on average 6.8 Mg ha−¹ year−¹), indicating the potential of managed tropical forests to contribute to climate change mitigation. Recruitment of small stems (5 cm ≤ DBH < 15 cm) and volume increment of future crop trees (15 cm ≤ DBH < 50 cm) temporarily increased following silvicultural interventions. High recruitment and growth rates were mainly driven by long-lived pioneer species so that future harvests will have to deal with a different pool of commercial species. When only the 22 commercial tree species that were harvested in 1982 were considered, the recovery in harvestable volume (DBH ≥ 50 cm) over 30 years ranged from 19 to 57%. However, if 30 additional tree species were considered that have been recognized as commercial timber species since, the recovery in the volume of the harvestable growing stock ranged from 27 to 143%. Light to medium thinning intensities promoted recovery, whereas intensive selection harvesting and follow-up thinning impeded recovery of harvestable growing stocks. These findings point to the importance of silvicultural interventions oriented towards future crop trees of target species to enhance recovery and reduce changes in composition of the commercial growing stock. Conclusions: A common finding was that the recovery in different important ecosystem attributes (tree species composition, biomass and timber stocks) within 30 years following initial logging was impaired when basal area was reduced more than 20% relative to pre-logging stocks. Furthermore, the results indicate that heavy harvesting damage and thinning may lead to unintended ecosystem changes that may affect the provision of ecosystem services. Results further suggest that current maximum harvesting intensity allowed by legislation (i.e., 30 m³ ha−¹ for a 30-year felling cycle) for the Brazilian Amazon is not likely to impair tree species composition and biomass recovery. Lastly, this thesis constitutes one of the few studies to date that addresses a comprehensive view of post-logging recovery over such a long-time period. The knowledge presented here contributes to improving our understanding of the resilience of tropical rain forests to silvicultural interventions. ; Contexto da pesquisa: Florestas tropicais são biodiversas e proporcionam serviços ecossistêmicos de importância global. Considerando a dominância crescente de paisagens antrópicas em regiões tropicais, o manejo sustentável destas florestas pode contribuir para manter a integridade dos ecossistemas e, concomitantemente, atender a demanda por produtos florestais para a sociedade. O manejo florestal sustentável é baseado na suposição de que os ecossistemas florestais são resilientes às intervenções silviculturais e que funções ecossistêmicas recobrem entre os ciclos de corte. No entanto, o entendimento sobre as respostas de florestas tropicais às intervenções silviculturais é limitado, especialmente no que se refere ao recobrimento de médio a longo prazo, após a colheita de madeira. Objetivos do estudo: O objetivo desta tese de doutorado foi analisar os efeitos da intensidade e do tipo (exploração e desbaste) de intervenção silvicultural no recobrimento de atributos e funções florestais importantes e relacionados à conservação da biodiversidade, sequestro de carbono e fornecimento de madeira. Além do regime de distúrbio, características da floresta remanescente também podem afetar o recobrimento. Em ecossistemas menos diversos, já foi demostrado que a diversidade, em espécies ou traços funcionais, pode aumentar a resiliência a distúrbios. Isso porque as espécies se complementam quanto ao uso dos recursos (hipótese de complementaridade de nichos ecológicos) ou porque espécies dominantes, com seus traços funcionais, podem determinar processos ecossistêmicos (hipótese de proporção de massas – mass-ratio em inglês). Tais efeitos ainda não foram investigados para a resiliência de florestas tropicais ao manejo florestal. Neste estudo, os efeitos das hipóteses de complementaridade de nichos ecológicos e de proporção de massas foram testados para a resiliência de biomassa. Perguntas da pesquisa: 1. Qual é a dinâmica da comunidade arbórea no processo de recobrimento de sua diversidade e composição em relação à intensidade e ao tipo da intervenção? 2. Como o recobrimento de biomassa acima do solo é afetado pela intensidade do distúrbio e características da vegetação (comunidade arbórea) remanescente? 3. Como o desenvolvimento do estoque de madeira de espécies comerciais é afetado pela intensidade e pelo tipo de intervenção silvicultural? Área de estudo e experimento: Dados analisados nesta tese de doutorado provêm de um estudo de longo-prazo para avaliar efeitos do manejo florestal madeireiro no recobrimento do ecossistema florestal. O experimento tem uma área de 180 ha e foi implementado em 1981 pelo grupo de manejo florestal da Embrapa Amazônia Oriental na Florestal Nacional do Tapajós, Pará, Brasil. Árvores com diâmetro à altura do peito (DAP) ≥ 5 cm foram medidas e permanentemente identificadas em 35 parcelas permanentes de 0.25 ha cada. Oito inventários florestais foram conduzidos de 1981 a 2012. Além disso, seis parcelas permanentes (0.25 ha) em floresta não-manejada foram monitoradas a partir de 1983. As intensidades de intervenção compreenderam a exploração (em média 61 m³ ha־¹) e danos associados às árvores remanescentes (1982) e desbaste (1993/1994). O efeito cumulativo dessas intervenções resultou em um gradiente de redução de área basal variando em média de 19 a 53% em relação ao estoque antes da exploração. Abordagem analítica usada para as análises: O recobrimento relativo (em relação às condições da floresta antes da exploração) para diversidade, composição de espécies, biomassa e estoque de madeira e também outras variáveis respostas como diversidade e recrutamento, foram comparadas entre as intensidades e tipo de intervenções, bem como em relação à floresta não manejada. Além disso, mudanças temporais foram investigadas em alguns casos, por exemplo para a composição de espécies e taxas de crescimento. Os efeitos das características da floresta remanescente na resiliência da biomassa também foram investigados usando modelos de equações estruturais. Resultados e discussão: A diversidade arbórea não foi prejudicada pelas intervenções silviculturais, mas altas intensidades de intervenção (exploração seguida de média à alta intensidade de desbaste) influenciaram, substancialmente, a composição de espécies arbóreas (DAP ≥ 10 cm). Essa mudança na composição de espécies foi acompanhada pelo decréscimo do valor médio de densidade da madeira sobre o tempo, indicando uma transição para comunidades dominadas por espécies pioneiras. Esta alteração pode influenciar o funcionamento do ecossistema como, por exemplo, a interação entre espécies, pela menor disponibilidade de frutos para a fauna. Além disso, a redução de área basal, pelo dano da colheita e pelo desbaste, teve uma influência maior na composição de espécies do que o corte de árvores alvo da colheita. Estes resultados demonstram que desbaste intensivo deve ser evitado e indicam a importância da exploração de impacto reduzido para diminuir danos à floresta remanescente e, consequentemente, reduzir o risco de mudanças não intencionais na composição de espécies arbóreas. Essas medidas podem facilitar o recobrimento da composição de espécies e a manutenção da biodiversidade em outros níveis tróficos. Taxas de recobrimento de biomassa acima do solo (DAP ≥ 10 cm) foram fortemente afetadas pela quantidade de área basal remanescente após a intervenção e pouco influenciadas pela composição da floresta remanescente. Abaixo de um nível pós-corte de área basal de aproximadamente 23 m² ha−¹ e seguindo desbastes intensos, taxas de recobrimento foram reduzidas. O baixo suporte estatístico, para as hipóteses de complementaridade de nichos ecológicos e de proporção de massas, pode estar relacionado à alta redundância funcional que, possivelmente, ocorre nestas florestas ricas em espécies ou porque, ao invés dos valores médios de características funcionais, algumas espécies podem determinar o recobrimento de biomassa após as intervenções. Estes resultados sugerem que intervenções intensivas podem prejudicar a resiliência da biomassa. Além disso, essas florestas retêm alto estoque de biomassa e rápidas taxas de recobrimento (em média 6.8 Mg ha−¹ ano−¹), indicando o potencial de florestas tropicais manejadas para contribuir com a mitigação das mudanças climáticas. O recrutamento da regeneração avançada (5 cm ≤ DAP < 15 cm) e o incremento volumétrico de árvores para colheita futura (15 cm ≤ DAP < 50 cm) aumentou temporariamente após as intervenções silviculturais. Alto recrutamento e taxas de crescimento foram determinados, principalmente, por espécies pioneiras de longa vida, de modo que futuros ciclos de corte serão compostos por um grupo diferente de espécies comerciais. O recobrimento do volume para colheita (DAP ≥ 50 cm) ao longo de 30 anos variou de 19 a 57%, quando considerando somente as 22 espécies comerciais exploradas em 1982. No entanto, ao incluir 30 espécies, que foram reconhecidas como comerciais a partir de 1982, o recobrimento em volume para colheita variou de 27 a 143%. Baixa à média intensidade de desbaste promoveu o recobrimento, mas alta intensidade de corte seletivo, seguido de intensivo desbaste, impediu o recobrimento do estoque de madeira. Estes resultados apontam para a importância de tratamentos silviculturais orientados a árvores para colheita futura visando melhorar o recobrimento e reduzir mudanças na composição de espécies do estoque madeireiro. Conclusões: Um resultado comum foi que o recobrimento em diferentes e importantes atributos (composição de espécies arbóreas, biomassa e estoque de madeira) dentro de 30 anos após a exploração foi prejudicado, quando a área basal foi reduzida para mais de 20% em relação ao estoque antes da exploração. Além disso, os resultados indicam que alta intensidade de danos associada com a exploração, e intensivos desbastes podem conduzir a mudanças inintencionais no ecossistema o que, por sua vez, pode afetar a provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos. Os resultados também sugerem que a atual intensidade de corte, permitida pela legislação (isto é, 30 m³ ha−¹ para um ciclo de corte de 30 anos) para a Amazônia brasileira, não irá prejudicar o recobrimento da composição de espécies arbóreas e biomassa. Por fim, esta tese de doutorado constitui um dos poucos estudos, até o momento, que consideram uma visão abrangente do recobrimento pós-colheita sobre um longo período de tempo. O conhecimento aqui apresentado contribui para melhorar o entendimento sobre a resiliência de florestas tropicais às intervenções silviculturais.

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Boyko, A7 Towards personalized physiotherapeutic approach, Joanna Bauer, Ewa Boerner, Halina Podbielska, A8 Cells, animal, SHIME and in silico models for detection and verification of specific biomarkers of non-communicable chronic diseases, Alojz Bomba, Viktor O. Petrov, Volodymyr G. Drobnych, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Oksana M. Bykova, Nadiya V. Boyko, A9 INTERACT-chronic care model: Self-treatment by patients with decision support e-Health solution, Hans-Peter Brunner-La Rocca, Lutz Fleischhacker, Olga Golubnitschaja, Frank Heemskerk, Thomas Helms, Tiny Jaarsma, Judita Kinkorova, Jan Ramaekers, Peter Ruff, Ivana Schnur, Emilio Vanoli, Jose Verdu, A10 PPPM in cardiovascular medicine in 2015, Hans-Peter Brunner-La Rocca, A11 Magnetic resonance imaging of nanoparticles in mice, potential for theranostic and contrast media development – pilot results, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Sergiy A. Grabovetskyi, Olena M. Mykhalchenko, Natalia O. Tymoshok, Oleksandr B. Shcherbakov, Igor P. Semeniv, Mykola Y. Spivak, A12 Ultrasound diagnosis for diabetic neuropathy - comparative study, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Tetyana V. Ostapenko, A13 Ultrasound for stratification patients with diabetic foot ulcers for prevention and personalized treatment - pilot results, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Nazarii M. Kobyliak, Nadiya M. Zholobak, Mykola Ya. Spivak, A14 Project ImaGenX – designing and executing a questionnaire on environment and lifestyle risk of breast cancer, John Paul Cauchi, A15 Genomics – a new structural brand of predictive, preventive and personalized medicine or the new driver as well?, Dmitrii Cherepakhin, Marina Bakay, Artem Borovikov, Sergey Suchkov, A16 Survey of questionnaires for evaluation of the quality of life in various medical fields, Barbara Cieślik, Agnieszka Migasiewicz, Maria-Luiza Podbielska, Markus Pelleter, Agnieszka Giemza, Halina Podbielska, A17 Personalized molecular treatment for muscular dystrophies, Sebahattin Cirak, A18 Secondary mutations in circulating tumour DNA for acquired drug resistance in patients with advanced ALK + NSCLC, Marzia Del Re, Paola Bordi, Valentina Citi, Marta Palombi, Carmine Pinto, Marcello Tiseo, Romano Danesi, A19 Recombinant species-specific FcεRI alpha proteins for diagnosis of IgE-mediated allergies in dogs, cats and horses, Lukas Einhorn, Judit Fazekas, Martina Muhr, Alexandra Schoos, Lucia Panakova, Ina Herrmann, Krisztina Manzano-Szalai, Kumiko Oida, Edda Fiebiger, Josef Singer, Erika Jensen-Jarolim, A20 Global methodology for developmental neurotoxicity testing in humans and animals early and chronically exposed to chemical contaminants, Arpiné A. Elnar, Nadia Ouamara, Nadiya Boyko, Xavier Coumoul, Jean-Philippe Antignac, Bruno Le Bizec, Gauthier Eppe, Jenny Renaut, Torsten Bonn, Cédric Guignard, Margherita Ferrante, Maria Liusa Chiusano, Salvatore Cuzzocrea, Gerard O'Keeffe, John Cryan, Michelle Bisson, Amina Barakat, Ihsane Hmamouchi, Nasser Zawia, Anumantha Kanthasamy, Glen E. Kisby, Rui Alves, Oscar Villacañas Pérez, Kim Burgard, Peter Spencer, Norbert Bomba, Martin Haranta, Nina Zaitseva, Irina May, Stéphanie Grojean, Mathilde Body-Malapel, Florencia Harari, Raul Harari, Kristina Yeghiazaryan, Olga Golubnitschaja, Vittorio Calabrese, Christophe Nemos, Rachid Soulimani, A21 Mental indicators at young people with attributes hypertension and pre-hypertension, Maria E. Evsevyeva, Elena A. Mishenko, Zurida V. Kumukova, Evgeniy V. Chudnovsky, Tatyana A. Smirnova, A22 On the approaches to the early diagnosis of stress-induced hypertension in young employees of State law enforcement agencies, Maria E. Evsevyeva, Ludmila V. Ivanova, Michail V. Eremin, Maria V. Rostovtseva, A23 Сentral aortic pressure and indexes of augmentation in young persons in view of risk factors, Maria E. Evsevyeva, Michail V. Eremin, Vladimir I. Koshel, Oksana V. Sergeeva, Nadesgda M. Konovalova, A24 Breast cancer prediction and prevention: Are reliable biomarkers in horizon?, Shantanu Girotra, Olga Golubnitschaja, A25 Flammer Syndrome and potential formation of pre-metastatic niches: A multi-centred study on phenotyping, patient stratification, prediction and potential prevention of aggressive breast cancer and metastatic disease, Olga Golubnitschaja, Manuel Debald, Walther Kuhn, Kristina Yeghiazaryan, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Vadym M. Goncharenko, Ulyana Lushchyk, Godfrey Grech, Katarzyna Konieczka, A26 Innovative tools for prenatal diagnostics and monitoring: improving individual pregnancy outcomes and health-economy in EU, Olga Golubnitschaja, Jan Jaap Erwich, Vincenzo Costigliola, Kristina Yeghiazaryan, Ulrich Gembruch, A27 Immunohistochemical assessment of APUD cells in endometriosis, Vadym M. Goncharenko, Vasyl O. Beniuk, Olga V. Kalenska, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, A28 Updating personalized management algorithm of endometrial hyperplasia in pre-menopause women, Vadym M. Goncharenko, Vasyl O. Beniuk, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Olga Melnychuk, A29 The personified treatment approach of polimorbid patients with periodontal inflammatory diseases, Irina A. Gorbacheva, Lyudmila Y. Orekhova, Vadim V. Tachalov, A30 Ukrainian experience in hybrid war – the challenge to update algorithms for personalized care and early prevention of different military injuries, Olena I. Grechanyk, Rizvan Ya. Abdullaiev, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, A31 Tear fluid biomarkers: a comparison of tear fluid sampling and storage protocols, Suzanne Hagan, Eilidh Martin, Ian Pearce, Katherine Oliver, A32 The correlation of dietary habits with gingival problems during menstruation, Cenk Haytac, Fariz Salimov, Servin Yoksul, Anatoly A. Kunin, Natalia S. Moiseeva, A33 Genomic medicine in a contemporary Spanish population of prostate cancer: our experience, Bernardo Herrera-Imbroda, Sergio del Río-González, Maria Fernanda Lara, Antonia Angulo, Francisco Javier Machuca Santa-Cruz, A34 Challenges, opportunities and collaborations for personalized medicine applicability in uro-oncological disease, Bernardo Herrera-Imbroda, Sergio del Río-González, Maria Fernanda Lara, A35 Metabolic hallmarks of cancer as targets for a personalized therapy, John Ionescu, A36 Influence of genetic polymorphism as a predictor of the development of periodontal disease in patients with gastric ulcer and 12 duodenal ulcer, Alfiya Z. Isamulaeva, Anatoly A. Kunin, Shamil Sh. Magomedov, Aida I. Isamulaeva, A37 Challenges in diabetic macular edema, Tatjana Josifova, A38 Overview of the EPMA strategies in laboratory medicine relevant for PPPM, Marko Kapalla, Juraj Kubáň, Olga Golubnitschaja, Vincenzo Costigliola, A39 EPMA initiative for effective organization of medical travel: European concepts and criteria, Vincenzo Costigliola, Marko Kapalla, Juraj Kubáň, Olga Golubnitschaja, A40 Design and innovation in e-textiles: implications for PPPM, Anthony Kent, Tom Fisher, Tilak Dias, A41 Biobank in Pilsen as a member of national node BBMRI_CZ, Judita Kinkorová, Ondřej Topolčan, A42 Big data in personalized medicine: hype and hope, Matthias Kohl, A43 The 3P approach as the platform of the European Dentistry Department (DPPPD), Anatoly A. Kunin, Natalia S. Moiseeva, A44 The endometrium cytokine patterns for predictive diagnosis of proliferation severity and cancer prevention, Andrii I. Kurchenko, Vasyl A. Beniuk, Vadym M. Goncharenko, Rostyslav V. Bubnov, Nadiya V. Boyko, Andriy M. Strokan, A45 A monocyte-based in-vitro system for testing individual responses to the implanted material: future for personalized implant construction, Julia Kzhyshkowska, Alexandru Gudima, Ksenia S. Stankevich, Victor D. Filimonov4, Harald Klüter, Evgeniya M. Mamontova, Sergei I. Tverdokhlebov, A46 Prediction and prevention of adverse health effects by meteorological factors: Biomarker patterns and creation of a device for self-monitoring and integrated care, Ulyana B. Lushchyk, Viktor V. Novytskyy, Igor P. Babii, Nadiya G. Lushchyk, Lyudmyla S. Riabets, Ivanna I. Legka, A47 Targeting "disease signatures" towards personalized healthcare, Mira Marcus-Kalish, Alexis Mitelpunkt, Tal Galili, Neta Shachar, Yoav Benjamini, A48 Influence of the skin imperfection on the personal quality of life and possible tools for objective diagnosis, Agnieszka Migasiewicz, Markus Pelleter, Joanna Bauer, Ewelina Dereń, Halina Podbielska, A49 The new direction in caries prevention based on the ultrastructure of dental hard tissues and filling materials, Natalia S. Moiseeva, Anatoly A. Kunin, Dmitry A. Kunin, A50 The use of LED radiation in prevention of dental diseases, Natalia S. Moiseeva, Yury A. Ippolitov, Dmitry A. Kunin, Alexei N. Morozov, Natalia V. Chirkova, Nakhid T. Aliev, A51 Status of endothelial progenitor cells in diabetic nephropathy: predictive and preventive potentials, Mahmood S. Mozaffari, Jun Yao Liu, Babak Baban, A52 The status of glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper protein in salivary gland in Sjögren's syndrome: predictive and personalized treatment potentials, Mahmood S. Mozaffari, Jun Yao Liu, Rafik Abdelsayed, Xing-Ming Shi, Babak Baban, A53 Maximal aerobic capacity - important quality marker of health, Jaroslav Novák, Milan Štork, Václav Zeman, A54 The EMPOWER project: laboratory medicine and Horizon 2020, Wytze P. Oosterhuis, Elvar Theodorsson, A55 Personality profile manifestations in patient's attitude to oral care and adherence to doctor's prescriptions, Lyudmila Y. Orekhova, Tatyana V. Kudryavtseva, Elena R. Isaeva, Vadim V. Tachalov, Ekaterina S. Loboda, A56 Results of an European survey on personalized medicine addressed to directions of laboratory medicine, Mario Pazzagli, Francesca Malentacchi, Irene Mancini, Ivan Brandslund, Pieter Vermeersch, Matthias Schwab, Janja Marc, Ron H.N. van Schaik, Gerard Siest, Elvar Theodorsson, Chiara Di Resta, A57 MCI or early dementia predictive speech based diagnosis techniques, Matus Pleva, Jozef Juhar, A58 Personalized speech based mobile application for eHealth, Matus Pleva, Jozef Juhar, A59 Circulating tumor cell-free DNA as the biomarker in the management of cancer patients, Jiří Polívka jr., Filip Janků, Martin Pešta, Jan Doležal, Milena Králíčková, Jiří Polívka, A60 Complex stroke care – educational programme in Stroke Centre University Hospital Plzen, Jiří Polívka, Alena Lukešová, Nina Müllerová, Petr Ševčík, Vladimír Rohan, A61 Sleep apnea and sleep fragmentation contribute to brain aging, Kneginja Richter, Lence Miloseva, Günter Niklewski, A62 Personalised approach for sleep disturbances in shift workers, Kneginja Richter, Jens Acker, Guenter Niklewski, A63 Medical travel and innovative PPPM clusters: new concept of integration, Olga Safonicheva, Vincenzo Costigliola, A64 Medical travel and women health, Olga Safonicheva, A65 Continuity of generations in the training of specialists in the field of reconstructive microsurgery, Maxim Sautin, Janna Sinelnikova, Sergey Suchkov, A66 Telemonitoring of stroke patients – empirical evidence of individual risk management results from an observational study in Germany, Songül Secer, Stephan von Bandemer, A67 Women's increasing breast cancer risk with n-6 fatty acid intake explained by estrogen-fatty acid interactive effect on DNA damage: implications for gender-specific nutrition within personalized medicine, Niva Shapira, A68 Cytobacterioscopy of the gingival crevicular fluid as a method for preventive diagnosis of periodontal diseases, Aleksandr Shcherbakov, Anatoly A. Kunin, Natalia S. Moiseeva, A69 Use of specially treated composites in dentistry to avoid violations of aesthetics, Bogdan R. Shumilovich, Zhanna Lipkind, Yulia Vorobieva, Dmitry A. Kunin, Anastasiia V. Sudareva, A70 National eHealth system – platform for preventive, predictive and personalized diabetes care, Ivica Smokovski, Tatjana Milenkovic, A72 The common energy levels of Prof. Szent-Györgyi, the intrinsic chemistry of melanin, and the muscle physiopathology. Implications in the context of Preventive, Predictive, and Personalized Medicine, Arturo Solís-Herrera, María del Carmen Arias-Esparza, Sergey Suchkov, A73 Plurality and individuality of hepatocellular carcinoma: PPPM perspectives, Krishna Chander Sridhar, Olga Golubnitschaja, A74 Strategic aspects of higher medical education reforms to secure newer educational platforms for getting biopharma professionals matures, Maria Studneva, Sihong Song, James Creeden, Мark Мandrik, Sergey Suchkov, A75 Overview of the strategies and activities of the European Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, (EFLM), Elvar Theodorsson, EFLM, A76 New spectroscopic techniques for point of care label free diagnostics, Syed A. M. Tofail, A77 Tumor markers for personalized medicine and oncology - the role of Laboratory Medicine, Ondřej Topolčan, Judita Kinkorová, Ondřej Fiala, Marie Karlíková, Šárka Svobodová, Radek Kučera, Radka Fuchsová, Vladislav Třeška, Václav Šimánek, Ladislav Pecen, Jan Šoupal, Štěpán Svačina2, A78 Modern medical terminology (MMT) as a driver of the global educational reforms, Evgeniya Tretyak, Maria Studneva, Sergey Suchkov, A79 Juvenile hypertension; the relevance of novel predictive, preventive and personalized assessment of its determinants, Francesca M. Trovato, G. Fabio Martines, Daniela Brischetto, Daniela Catalano, Giuseppe Musumeci, Guglielmo M. Trovato, A80 Proteomarkers Biotech, George Th. Tsangaris, Athanasios K. Anagnostopoulos, A81 Proteomics and mass spectrometry based non-invasive prenatal testing of fetal health and pregnancy complications, George Th. Tsangaris, Athanasios K. Anagnostopoulos, A82 Integrated Ecosystem for an Integrated Care model for Heart Failure (HF) patients including related comorbidities (ZENITH), José Verdú, German Gutiérrez, Jordi Rovira, Marta Martinez, Lutz Fleischhacker, Donna Green, Arthur Garson, Elena Tamburini, Stefano Cuomo, Juan Martinez-Leon, Teresa Abrisqueta, Hans-Peter Brunner-La Rocca, Tiny Jaarsma, Teresa Arredondo, Cecilia Vera, Giuseppe Fico, Olga Golubnitschaja, Fernando Arribas, Martina Onderco, Isabel Vara, on behalf of ZENITH consortium, A83 Predictive, preventive and personalized medicine in diabetes onset and complication (MOSAIC project), José Verdú, Francesco Sambo, Barbara Di Camillo, Claudio Cobelli, Andrea Facchinetti, Giuseppe Fico, Riccardo Bellazzi, Lucia Sacchi, Arianna Dagliati, Daniele Segnani, Valentina Tibollo, Manuel Ottaviano, Rafael Gabriel, Leif Groop, Jacqueline Postma, Antonio Martinez, Liisa Hakaste, Tiinamaija Tuomi, Konstantia Zarkogianni, on behalf of MOSAIC consortium, A84 Possibilities for personalized therapy of diabetes using in vitro screening of insulin and oral hypoglycemic agents, Igor Volchek, Nina Pototskaya, Andrey Petrov, A85 The innovative technology for personalized therapy of human diseases based on in vitro drug screening, Igor Volchek, Nadezhda Pototskaya, Andrey Petrov, A86 Bone destruction and temporomandibular joint: predictive markers, pathogenetic aspects and quality of life, Ülle Voog-Oras, Oksana Jagur, Edvitar Leibur, Priit Niibo, Triin Jagomägi, Minh Son Nguyen, Chris Pruunsild, Dagmar Piikov, Mare Saag, A87 Sub-optimal health management – global vision for concepts in medical travel, Wei Wang, A88 Sub-optimal health management: synergic PPPM-TCAM approach, Wei Wang, A89 Innovative technologies for minimal invasive diagnostics, Andreas Weinhäusel, Walter Pulverer, Matthias Wielscher, Manuela Hofner, Christa Noehammer, Regina Soldo, Peter Hettegger, Istvan Gyurjan, Ronald Kulovics, Silvia Schönthaler, Gabriel Beikircher, Albert Kriegner, Stephan Pabinger, Klemens Vierlinger, A90 Rare disease diobanks for personalized medicine, Ayşe Yüzbaşıoğlu, Meral Özgüç, Member of EuroBioBank - European Network of DNA, Cell and Tissue Banks for Rare Diseases

Jurnal Ruang-Space mendedikasikan publikasinya untuk memperoleh pemahaman terhadap ruang dan lingkungan binaan. Jurnal ini ditujukan untuk menjembatani kesenjangan dalam publikasi ilmiah, khususnya yang menempatkan lingkungan binaan sebagai bagian yang tidak terpisahkan dari ilmu-ilmu sosial maupun politik. Dalam konteks ini, Jurnal Ruang mempublikasikan artikel-artikel yang mendorong kemunculan pemikiran-pemikiran kritis, sebagai salah satu karakteristik dari era pasca-modern dan globalisasi. Pemahaman terhadap lingkungan binaan secara menyeluruh dilaksanakan dengan memproposisikan pendekatan lintas disiplin, dan cara berpikir yang tidak semata dibatasi bidang keprofesian tertentu. Adapun fokus pembidangan Jurnal ini adalah pada isu-isu yang muncul sebagai akibat pembangunan keruangan untuk mengakomodasi kebutuhan bermukim umat manusia di era milenium ketiga. Fokus ini mencakup disiplin arsitektur, perencanaan, arsitektur landskap, perancangan kota, termasuk juga pandangan serta interprestasi terhadap lingkungan binaan dari kacamata urban geografi, sosiologi dan ilmu politik. Dalam mendukung visi global ini, kami mengundang partisipasi dari penulis, baik yang berasal dari dalam maupun luar Indonesia.Secara detil, Jurnal Ruang-Space menerima artikel yang membahas isu-isu berkenaan sustainabilitas, wujud kota (urban form), urban landskap (urban landscape), desain kontrol, wujud serta organisasi spasial kemasyarakatan, etnik arsitektur, perumahan untuk masyarakat berpendapatan rendah, kebijakan serta urban politik, and desain perkotaan. Jurnal ini menyambut baik kajian terhadap beragam teori dalam wujud aplikasi maupun temuan, baik yang berupa fakta maupun analisis baru. Dalam konteks ini, pendekatan serta pemikiran berbasis multidisiplin menjadi sebuah keharusan, dan bukan perkecualian. Pendekatan berpikir 'outside the box' akan menjadi karakter penting dalam pencapaian tujuan ini. Melalui publikasi Jurnal Ruang -Space kami berharap bisa membangun visi yang dinamik dan menarik, yang berbeda dengan wujud publikasi yang hanya dilandasi oleh pandangan bahwa perencanaan dan perancangan arsitektur sebagai satu-satunya elemen penentu kualitas fisik maupun sosial dari lingkungan binaan, dimana kita berada.Selain bertujuan menyediakan ruang untuk publikasi terkait topik-topik di atas, Jurnal Ruang-Space juga mempublikasikan artikel berdasarkan tema spesifik, yang secara khusus dan mendalam membahas isu-isu tertentu. Tema ini dibangun dalam batas lingkup topik publikasi, misalnya: pembangunan keruangan desa, ruang pada sistem kemasyarakatan tradisional, pengaruh globalisasi terhadap budaya keruangan lokal, dan mekanisme penggendalian pembangunan keruangan di daerah. Disamping itu, sebagai sebuah produk publikasi dari Program Studi Magister Arsitektur, Universitas Udayana, Bali, kami memiliki misi menjadikan Jurnal ini sebagai media untuk mendiskusikan isu-isu penting yang sedang dihadapi masyarakat di Pulau Dewata. Ini khususnya mencakup permasalahan pembangunan dan budaya secara keseluruhan. Di permukaan, debat berkenaan topik ini bertautan erat dengan industri kepariwisataan, yang dampaknya sudah sangat jelas bisa diidentifikasi, dan telah diinterprestasikan secara beragam. Di satu sisi, industri ini seringkali dipandang memiliki peran destruktif terhadap lingkungan dan budaya lokal, namun pada saat yang sama telah berkontribusi secara besar-besaran terhadap pembangunan ekonomi. Sirkumsatansi ini bukanlah hal langka yang hanya dialami Bali, namun pulau ini memiliki potensi untuk dijadikan sebagai laboratorium, dimana permasalahan yang muncul sebagai akibat pembangunan pariwisata bisa dipelajari secara mendalam. Selain mempublikasikan artikel dengan format dan substansi tersebut di atas, ke depannya, Jurnal Ruang-Space juga mengundang tiga tipe publikasi. Pertama, book review (maksimum 1000 kata). Kedua, viewpoints yang memamaparkan pandangan-pandangan kekinian atau kritik terhadap sebuah teori, metode, topik-topik tertentu, dan lain-lain yang dipandang oleh penulis telah terlalaikan atau dimisinterprestasikan (1000-2000 kata). Ketiga, review terhadap artikel yang tidak hanya mereview buku tertentu, tetapi melingkup juga sejarah, dampak, buku-buku yang memiliki kemiripan, kritik terhadap teori (2000-3000 kata). Melalui kesempatan ini, kami ucapkan selamat bergabung kepada anggota Dewan Editor Jurnal Ruang-Space. Terima kasih yang sedalam-dalamnya kami sampaikan kepada Ibu dan Bapak Anggota Dewan Editor atas kesediaannya untuk berpartisipasi dalam publikasi ini. Kami berharap, melalui dukungan Ibu dan Bapak, Jurnal Ruang-Space akan mencapai misinya untuk berperan sebagai media komunikasi bagi pemikiran-pemikiran baru serta hasil-hasil studi di bidang lingkungan terbangun. Anggota Dewan Editor Jurnal Ruang-Space memiliki latar belakang kepakaran yang beragam dan telah memiliki pengakuan di bidangnya masing-masing. Ini melingkup kepakaran di bidang rancang bangun, pembangunan dan perencanaan, perancangan kota, politikal ekonomi, sosiologi, sejarah dan antrofologi. Edisi perdana Jurnal Ruang-Space diawali dengan artikel yang dikontribuskan oleh Profesor Alexander Cuthbert (UNSW, Australia), salah satu guru besar tamu di Universitas Udayana. Artikel pertama ini mempersonifikasikan beberapa aspek dari permasalahan yang dihadapi dalam perancangan kota, dengan menawarkan sebuah pendekatan teoritis baru. Tulisan ini memandang bahwa estetika dan interprestasi terhadap budaya di bidang arsitektur bisa dilihat melalui kacamata teori-teori sosial. Artikel kedua ditulis Ni Made Dhina Avianthi Irawan, salah seorang staf Kementrian Pekerjaan Umum Bali di bidang Penataan Bangunan dan Lingkungan. Dhina membahas tentang pembangunan citra Kota Blahkiuh berdasarkan pengalaman serta pandangan masyarakat pengamat perkembangan kota. Blahkiuh merupakan salah satu contoh kota golongan IV di Bali. Tulisan ketiga disajikan oleh Ni Made Emmi Nutrisia Dewi, salah satu staf pengajar dari Sekolah Tinggi Desain, Bali. Tulisan Emmi mengkaji tentang pemanfaatan ruang-ruang komunal di Desa Pedungan (Denpasar), wujud perubahan fungsi yang ada dan faktor-faktor penyebab perubahan ini. Artikel keempat ditulis oleh I Made Wirata (arsitek profesional) dan Ngakan Putu Sueca (profesor Jurusan Arsitektur, Universitas Udayana). Tulisan ini membahas tentang konsep rumah adat Suku Sasak di Dusun Segenter, Lombok Utara. Keunikan permukiman ini adalah pada penempatan ruang-ruang yang sangat tergantung dari penempatan pintu dan bale sakanem (bangunan dengan 6 tiang struktur). Artikel kelima ditulis oleh Dinar Sukma Pramesti, seorang arsitek profesional. Tulisan Dinar mendiskusikan tentang tipe rumah panggung di Kampung Loloan, Kabupaten Jembrana, Bali. Dinar menggarisbawahi jika bentuk arsitektur rumah panggung kampung ini telah berkembang, menyesuaikan kondisi sosial-budaya, ekonomi, umur bangunan, ketersediaan lahan, dan preferensi dari penghuni. Artikel keenam disusun oleh I Nengah Riana, Widiastuti, dan Ida Bagus Gde Primayatna, staf akademik dari Jurusan Teknik Sipil, Universitas Pendidikan Nasional, (Bali) dan Jurusan Arsitektur, Universitas Udayana. Paper ini menstudi salah satu permasalahan serius yang semakin dihadapi Kota Denpasar, yaitu perubahan pemanfaatan ruang terbuka hijau. Perubahan ini dilihat dari wujud perubahannya serta faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan terjadinya alih fungsi ini. Artikel ketujuh mengkaji tentang relevansi dari perumahan berlantai banyak dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan perumahan untuk masyarakat berpendapatan rendah di daerah perkotaan di Indonesia, yang ditulis oleh Gusti Ayu Made Suartika, seorang akademik dari Program Studi Magister Perencanaan dan Pembangunan Spasial Desa/Kota, Universitas Udayana. Akhirnya terima kasih yang sebesar-besarnya disampaikan kepada para penulis, wakil editor, anggota dewan editor, staf editor, dan team produksi, yang telah berkontribusi dan bekerja keras sehingga publikasi Jurnal RUANG-SPACE terealisasikan. ??? Ruang-Space is a new journal dedicated to the understanding of space and the built environment. It has been created to fill a major gap in academic publishing in Indonesia, where the physical built environment remains somewhat detached from its counterparts in social science and urban politics. To this extent Ruang-Space focuses on development in general, encouraging lateral thinking as a dominant characteristic of post-modern thought and the politics of globalisation. The intention is to address the built environment as a whole, and to dispense with the barriers and silos that define professional thinking. So the subject matter of the journal will focus on major issues emerging from the development of human settlements in the third millennium. These will of necessity include the disciplines of architecture, planning, landscape architecture and urban design, as well as interpretations of the built environment emerging from urban geography, sociology and political science. In order to support our global vision, we encourage articles and reviews from around the world. In greater detail, we welcome submissions dealing with sustainability, urban form, the urban landscape, design control, community organisation, ethnic architecture, housing for the poor, urban politics and policy, and the design of cities. But in addition to our overall intention to broaden the analysis of settlement form and structure in Indonesia and abroad, we wish to push forward the barriers on significant theory, either in its application or in the discovery of new facts and forms of analysis. In so doing we accept that in the increasingly globalising world of postmodernity, cross disciplinarity is becoming the rule rather than the exception, and that thinking 'outside the box' is now a necessary characteristic of this process. Hence submissions which further these ideas will be encouraged in the peer-refereeing process that we will pursue. Under the umbrella of Ruang-Space, we hope to generate a dynamic and interesting vision of the built environment that stands in contrast to journals whose subject matter is contained within a narrow vision of architecture and planning as constraining determinants of social space. While it is our intention to make space available on a continuing basis to a diversity of submissions, as is now the norm we intend to publish occasional 'themed' issues that cover particular subjects in significant depth, for example in kampung development, space in traditional societies, the impact of globalisation on local cultures and development control. Additionally, since this journal is being produced by the Masters Program in Architecture at Udayana University in Bali, it is also our intention to use it as a forum for the diversity of problems that now inundate Balinese society, specifically those that affect development and culture as a whole. In the forefront of this debate lies the nemesis of tourism. Its impacts are ubiquitous and variously interpreted on the one hand as destructive of environment and culture yet on the other as a making a massive contribution to the local economy. While Bali's problems are not original, the island paradise offers a singular laboratory where the conflicts brought by tourism can be studied in significant depth. It is also our intention to generalise our content, not only in subject matter but also in the form in which it is presented. In future issues we will also welcome three other types of submission. First, book reviews (up to 1000 words). Second, viewpoints which provide a new insight or critique of a theory, method, subject matter etc that the author feels is being ignored or is otherwise misinterpreted (1000-2000 words). Third, review articles which not only review a particular book, but cover its history, influences, similar texts and a theoretical critique of content (approx 2-3000 words). We also take this opportunity to welcome our editorial board members, whom we gratefully thank for their participation. We hope that with your support, this journal will achieve its mission to be a medium for communication for new thoughts and study findings in the area of the built environment. Our editorial board includes experts in a variety of fields dealing with the built environment, individuals who have attained great respect in their diverse disciplines, including architecture, urban planning, urban design, political economy, sociology, sustainability, anthropology and history. This first Volume and first issue is opened by Professor Cuthbert who is a distinguished Visiting Professor at our University (Guru Besar Tamu), whose work has had international acclaim in the area of urban design. His article personifies many of the above qualities by offering a new theoretical framework for urban design from within the realm of social theory that he suggests can replace aesthetic and 'cultural' interpretations of architecture. This is followed by the second article written by Ni Made Dhina Avianthi Irawan, a civil servant of Ministry of Public Works, Department of Building and Environment in Bali. Dhina discusses the development of Blahkiuh image based on observers experiences and perception. Blahkiuh is classified as a city of class IV status in Bali. The third paper is authored by Ni Made Emmi Nutrisia Dewi, an academic of the Design Institute of Bali. Emmi's article studies the use of communal spaces of Pedungan Village (Denpasar), and the changes and factors behind them. The fourth article is written by I Made Wirata, a professional architect, and Ngakan Putu Sueca (Professor in the Department of Architecture, Udayana University). It discusses concepts behind the Sasak houses of Segenter Village, North of Lombok. The uniqueness of these settlements is the layout of spaces that relies heavily on the placement of doors and the bale sakanem (building with six structural columns). The fifth article is authored by Dinar Sukma Pramesti, a professional architect. Dinar studies the stilt houses of Loloan community, Jembrana, Bali. She underlines that the form of stilt houses has changed over time in line with various elements including socio-cultural aspects, economic factors, building age, land availability, and occupants' preferences. The sixth article is written by I Nengah Riana, Widiastuti, and Ida Bagus Gde Primayatna, academic staff from the Department of Civil Engineering, National University (Bali) and the Department of Architecture, Udayana University. It examines the conversion of green open spaces, a major problem in Denpasar. The seventh paper is authored by Gusti Ayu Made Suartika. It examines the relevance of multi storey housing in fulfilling the need for affordable houses by low income urban dwellers in Indonesia. Finally, a big thank you to all our contributors, editorial board, production team and publishing staff who have worked faithfully to bring the journal RUANG- SPACE into being.

IntroductionRapidly-growing enterprises (RGEs) can play a crucial role in emerging economies with lasting impact on their economic growth. This type of enterprises must manage the change to remain both competitive and flexible in order to survive. Similarly, the emerging economies are characterized by rapid structural change in their socio-economic institutions and traditional practices for gaining competitiveness to face the competitive pressures of the increasing globalized economy. In general, SMEs have the requisite flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances, to become a vehicle for enhancing competitiveness by upgrading their capabilities in a country, and thus become major contributors to economic growth. The added feature of RGEs is that they grow faster and achieve higher growth while facing more constrained resources than their SME counterparts. We posit that emerging economies face similar barriers and challenges and RGEs can provide valuable lessons for more effective management. Change in emerging economies is inevitable and will manifest itself at the firm, industry and institutional levels. Regardless of the original source, the instability resulting from rapid change need to be managed with a view to long term growth. For a firm to succeed in a dynamic emerging market, the lessons from other firms managing in dynamic emerging industries can be highly instructive. Emerging industries are characterized by a rapid change in terms of the definition of industry, member firms' production function, relation with buyers, suppliers and competitors. This dynamism is in part due to evolutionary changes in technology, knowledge and also is an inevitable outcome of specialization, which allows for faster growth; but results in higher interdependence of firms internationally. Emerging economies will inevitably compete with the members of those new industries; and therefore it may be efficient to learn from the players that are creating and shaping the new competitive structure. RGEs contribute to enhancing technical progress by increasing the rate of invention and innovation, and the speed with which new technology is disseminated and adopted by other firms. Globalization has forced countries to interlink their economies (Armijo, 2008), increasing their interdependence and thus forcing them to react to, and respond to change, accordingly (Hoekman and Porto, 2010). Therefore, emerging economies are facing similar situations to those of RGEs: a changing reality resulting from technological advances and shifts in macroeconomic policies due to internal and external factors such as the dynamics of WTO, Trading Blocs, among others. Given the present need of emerging markets to raise their competitive levels, RGEs are highly-suitable models from which to learn how to cope with and take advantage of the new emerging environments. In this paper we describe RGEs ´characteristics in order to learn about the crucial tasks of managing the complexity of rapid change due to the emergence change. We also explore how the emerging economies can bridge, and even close, the gap with the industrialized economies and whether or not the rapidly-growing enterprises may play an important role. The Characteristics of the Emerging Economies Emerging economies are a group of countries that play an increasingly important role in the global economy. The term "emerging economies" was originally coined by the IFC to describe a fairly narrow list of middle-to-higher income economies as a subset of developing countries. According to Hoskisson, Eden, Lau, and Wright (2000), "emerging economies" are those newly industrializing countries that have adopted market-based policies. Khanna and Palepu (1997: 42) suggest that in defining emerging economies, "the most important criterion is how well an economy helps buyers and sellers come together." They point out that the lack of proper institutions—relative to developed countries—make emerging markets more inefficient and incomplete, whereby information problems, misguided regulation, and inefficient judicial systems hamper communication between buyers and sellers. Bureaucratic judiciary systems, for example, make registration processes lengthier and costlier than in developed economies with a negative impact on transparency and providing fertile ground for favoritism and corruption. Labor markets are frequently highly regulated imposing additional costs on SMEs making them less flexible than otherwise (see Table 1). Table 1: FIRM-SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Output marketInput marketLow competitiveness Limited international experienceLiberalization policiesGlobalization Asymmetric access to information & to technologyLimited access to local and international capital marketsPoor dissemination of information related to international marketsLabor marketManagerial constrainsOwnership structureLack of managerial expertiseLack of consulting servicesLack of administrative structureSocial ties between senior managersFamily-owned business Sources: Adopted from Hoskisson et al. (2000), Khanna and Palepu (1997) and Mody (2004)The institutional aspects of the emerging economies Mody (2004) proposes another definition that emphasizes a) a high degree of volatility due to the transitional nature of their economic, political, social, and demographic conditions, b) the inherent trade-offs between flexibility in policy commitments, and c) the transition from transaction-specific to institutional commitments. The idea of a transition from transaction-specific to institutional commitments is appealing in view of the fact that such institutions must also subsume the socio-cultural dimension of the problem. According to North (2005), economic performance depends on institutional heritage, economic rules and, how those rules are devised and enforced, and the specific institutional constraints of each market. In order to reduce rent-seeking, free-riding and morally hazardous behaviors, it is desirable to evolve from a transaction-specifics situation to a rule-based situation, whereby the agents involved in the situation are not relevant to, or cannot influence, the due-process. Having strong and clearly-defined institutions that enhance the performance of firms is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition to guaranty economic growth. Clague (1996) finds that the characteristics and stability of political regimes have an impact on economic institutions. Similarly, Mauro (1995) argues that bureaucratic and institutional efficiencies are positively correlated with political stability and that poor countries tend to have cumbersome bureaucracy and inefficient institutions. Not only the rules need to be adequate for the circumstances, but also they must be enforced. As North (1990: 107) points out, institutions "are the underlying determinant of the long-run performance of economies". The greater the transparency in terms of information and access to efficient judiciary systems the lowers transaction cost of engaging in productive activities. Artificial national asymmetries and deficiencies, for example, limited governmental support and/or biases in favor of large companies that lobby the government, creates barriers for smaller firms to access to key resources, hence, hindering their competitiveness Characteristics of Rapidly-Growing Enterprises Delmar, Davidson, and Gartner, (2003), Ala-Mutka and Etemad (2006), Fischer and Reuber (2003), Birch, Haggerty, and Parsons (1993) and Keen and Etemad (2011 and 2012) have identified a very interesting group of companies called Gazelles or, in this paper, RGEs. These companies are characterized as smaller firms experiencing explosive growth for a sustained period of time. There are not industry-specific and are found in many industries, ranging from shoes manufacturing, construction to knowledge-intensive and pharmaceutical development. Their main common characteristic is fast growth in revenues, number of employees and revenue per employee. Naturally, this rapid growth in employment and revenues are the consequents of their expansion and further penetration in local and international markets. Most of them internationalize rapidly as well by climbing over international entry barriers effectively. These aspects should be of particular interest to developing economies because of their impact at least in three ways: i) Primary and direct impact. Not only do they generate employment and incremental income but they also increase the total production of goods and service, as well as wealth, in a much shorter period of time than other enterprises. ii) Secondary impact by providing a model to learn from and emulate their action -- the spill-over effects of their success to the rest of the economy would further contributing to the well-being of their region and possibly beyond, otherwise absent (i.e., when normally growing firms are inspired, learn from and emulate local RGEs) iii) Benchmarks for best practices and world-class competitiveness. By aiming to succeed in international markets from the very beginning, these companies need to set their strategic horizons very high adopting the best managerial practices and strategies to achieve the competitive that would enable them to compete internationally at the outset. They tend to select partners, whether suppliers or buyers, that share the same working philosophy and follow similar strategies to complement them. They function collaboratively and interdependently mainly as members of networks as opposed to operating independently. RGEs are in many cases the fundamental core of potential industrial clusters that radiate their momentum to the rest of the economy. They may or may not be a part of a regional industrial cluster; but they actively manage a smaller cluster of their own value net: i.e., an efficient network of buyers and suppliers involved in the both the supply and value chains that collectively generate higher value than their counterparts. This paper will return to the topic or RGEs in the next section. It will present and briefly analyze RGEs in order to examine their main patterns of strategic operations and rapid growth for adoption by the emerging economies to speed-out the transformation of their economic growth and developments. Discussion This discussion builds on the arguments presented earlier and explores the possibility of emerging economies learning from, and emulating, RGES in the developed economies to shorten the time and the path of transformation. In so doing, five broad influential topics will assist in examining different aspect of this examination, as follows. The Need for Re-evaluation and Re-configuration of Advantages In changing environments, property-based assets lose their potency relatively faster than elsewhere. As Miller and Shamsie (1996: 522) observe ¨most competitors will be aware of the value of a rival's property-based resources, and they may even have the knowledge to duplicate these resources¨. However, the knowledge-based resources, more likely to have a higher potentials for generating competitive advantages and growth. Furthermore, the firm has more effective control over the creation and deployment of knowledge–based assets than those of property-based assets. As mentioned earlier, in dynamic environments, firms are forced to gain productivity and meet world-class standards to keep pace with others. A key suggestion of this paper, based on the experience of RGEs, is that without learning and knowledge acquisition to give rise to knowledge-based assets, capabilities and competitiveness, the probability of closing the technological gap and reducing the income inequality will simply not be feasible. Technological gap can be viewed primarily as knowledge gap combined with the lack of process know-how to exploit the technology in a timely manner. Income inequality is in part due to comparatively inefficient of firm operation characterized by their growth rates. In to the case of property-based resources, where competitor may develop the knowledge of how to replicate such resources and thus reduce the competitors' advantage, the traditional barriers (such as legal constraint or historical endowments) did not allow firms to acquire those resources easily. As discussed earlier, those barriers are eroding rapidly. In contrast, knowledge-based resources cannot be easily imitated by firms that do not already posses the requisite know-how. It would be difficult, costly or risky to replicate and time may not favour imitators. As Miller and Shamsie (1996: 522) argue, "knowledge-based resources allow organizations to succeed, not by market control or precluding competition, but by giving firms the skills to adapt their products to market needs and to deal with competitive challenges". Firms in emerging economies will have to learn how to adapt and to respond to international market needs relatively fast to reduce the risk of falling further behind. The relatively static characteristics of the closed-economies, firms were not forced to possess the requisite capabilities to deal with complex situations. Aspiring firms will have to develop collaborative skills to develop and share knowledge to devise new routines and processes to deal with increasing more complex situations. Therefore, the transitional period can be characterized by an ongoing process of unlearning the old routines and the learning the new ones, mainly from more progressive firms such RGEs in order to cope with the new requirements of increasingly more sophisticated demand conditions and tougher competition. The Need for Change in Managers Mindset and the Firm's Out Look. On the one hand, there is a need to understand the implications of the changes in order to develop potentially different courses of action available and how they affect the industry and business practices. On the other hand, according to Weick (1995), the strategic decisions of managers depend on their cognitive structures and how they make sense of the environment. Enterprises need to understand any pending or intended change in a way that "makes sense" to them, fits into some of their interpretative scheme or system of meaning (Bartunek, 1984; Ranson, Hinings, and Greenwood, 1980). When firms face a different environment, such as new international competition, new suppliers and customers, there is a need for a thorough revision because previous symbols, values, and historical attributes may no longer be relevant to the organization that faces the new reality. It is likely that there will be irreconcilable inconsistencies between key labels used in the organization and the key concepts needed for comprehending and dealing with the new reality. The awareness of alternative actions is the key to proper action "in regard to the changes occurring in the data of the markets" (Mises, 1949: 255). Past actions, thinking and experiences that were concretized in norms, standards procedures, and job specifications of the near past need to be revised and in some cases unlearned because they do not reflect the emerging reality anymore. In the entrepreneurial literature, the entrepreneur is the person who has the ability to make the transition possible, to develop new ideas and to set the strategic directions. Firms need to be alert (Kirzner, 1973) to the signal from the markets. The alertness of managers to take advantage of new opportunities and to meet changing market conditions through discovery may be considerably reduced if firms do not change their dominant logic (Prahalad and Bettis, 1986) in order to develop novel strategies. Firms that conducted business for years in a closed economy without much pressure to innovate and to reduce costs, face insurmountable pressures to reinvent themselves. They cannot remain indifferent because their customers will be more demanding, their supply sources will be evolving as well as the competition becoming less forgiving. (continuará en la próxima edición de Letras Internacionales)*Dr. Christian Keen, Coordinador Académico de Finanzas FACS, Universidad ORT Uruguay

One of the political goals of the EU is to develop 'the most competitive knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010'. The Dutch knowledge economy faces an increased demand for highly-educated inhabitants, and more graduates from Higher Education are needed. Dutch Universities of Applied Sciences (UAS) have experienced a considerable growth in enrolment, resulting into a mixed variety of students. Former education of the students forms one of the sources of this heterogeneity. More students enter Higher Education and the number of dropouts has increased proportionally. The increasing amount of dropouts counteracts the desire and the potential of Higher Education to increase the volume of graduates. This study describes a search into students' key factors regarding study outcome in the first year of a study in Higher Education in the Netherlands. The aim of the study is to gain deeper insight into the relations between students' personal characteristics and study outcome. It is deeper insight in these relations which is a necessary condition to enhance study outcome, in order to support students at risk and prevent dropout more successfully. This is considered to be important because dropout has considerably economic and psychological consequences for the individual student, as well as on the institutional level and societal level. In general, we define dropout as 'ending the study before obtaining a degree'. In this study dropouts are defined as 'all students who start a study within a University of Applied Sciences and end the study within the first 14 months after enrolment'. In order to determine key factors predicting study outcome, the present study started from a working model. This model is based on a learning psychological point of view with regard to the individual learner. Three concepts were taken as central variables: (1) biographical aspects, being former education: i.e. students with a Senior General Secondary Education-background (SGSE) or a Senior Secondary Vocational Education-background (SVSE), and gender, (2) personality characteristics, and (3) learning patterns, being personal orientations on learning and study approaches. Furthermore, students' personal reasons to continue or drop out were investigated as well as how these reasons were related to the students' study approaches. The main research questions in this study are: 1. What is the influence of personality characteristics on personal orientations on learning which, in turn, influence study approaches and are there any differences between students when entering Higher Education with regard to former education (Senior General Secondary Education and Senior Secondary Vocational Education)? 2. To what degree do former education and students' personal characteristics (the 'Big Five personality characteristics', personal orientations on learning and students' study approaches) predict study outcome? 3. Are there any differences between students who continue and students who drop out from the educational system within one year with regard to their study approaches, their personal reasons and the relations between these two? These research questions were answered with three different studies, each addressing one of the main questions. In chapter two, the first research question is answered by a survey study using two questionnaires. The first questionnaire was Vermunt's learning style inventory for Higher Education. This questionnaire investigates learning conceptions, motivational orientations, regulation strategies and cognitive processing activities. For the assessment of personality characteristics the Dutch version of the Five-Factor Personality Inventory was used. This questionnaire measures five aspects of personality: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability and autonomy. Participants were 2.284 full-time first-year students entering a Dutch university of applied sciences. The questionnaires were administered in the fifth study week. Cohen's effect size d, principal component analyses and structural equation analyses with backward elimination procedures were used to obtain results. The main findings of the study were that at the level of personality characteristics, SSVE-students were found to be significantly more autonomous and conscientious than SGSE-students. In general, all five personality characteristics (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability and autonomy) influenced students' personal orientations on learning. Personality characteristics also influenced study approach directly. This happened for all participating students, regardless their former education. The study revealed three personal orientations on learning: 1) constructive self-regulation, (2) reproductive external regulation and (3) ambivalence and lack of regulation. SGSE-students showed significantly lower preferences on all three personal orientations on learning than SSVEstudents did. Furthermore, two types of study approaches were revealed: (1) meaningful integrative approach and (2) superficial approach. SGSE-students tended to report a more superficial approach than SSVE-students did. No difference between both groups of students was found regarding the meaningful integrative approach. Personal orientations on learning were strong predictors for study approach with the exception of ambivalence and lack of regulation, which had no predictive value for a superficial approach. Finally, the causal relations between the concepts of the working model appeared to be identical for SGSE-students and SSVE-students with regard to the strength as well as to the direction of the relations. The concepts appeared to be 'general', regardless of students' former education. To answer the second research question, we report in chapter three on a study that investigated the possible predictive value of former education and students' personality characteristics, personal orientations on learning and students' study approach regarding study outcome (system of credits and study continuance). The two questionnaires of the first study were used and the data were extended with the students' amount of obtained credits and their status. Logistic regression analyses of the gathered data of 1.471 students are performed in order to answer the research questions. The main findings of the study showed that differences in former education (i.e. students originating from SSGE or SSVE) did not seem to be a predictor for study outcome. Gender, however, seemed to be of influence: female students obtained more credits and continued their studies more often than their male counterparts did. This applied to female students both from SSGE and from SSVE. With regard to personality characteristics, conscientiousness turned out to be a significant predictor for study outcome: being more conscientious was beneficial with regard to study outcome. With regard to students' personal orientations on learning, ambivalence and lack of regulation seemed to matter: students with high scores on this orientation obtained fewer credits and dropped out more often. Finally, the two different types of study approaches, meaningful integrative approach and superficial approach, showed no significant influence on study outcome. In chapter four we report on a study that answers the third research question. The central goal of this study was to gain insight into students' study approaches, their personal reasons and the relations between these two for students who continue or drop out from the educational system within one year. Vermunts' questionnaire of the first study was used and the data was extended with the students' status. In order to gain insight into students' personal reasons, two retrospective questionnaires with items considering reasons to drop out and reasons to continue, were constructed. A Principal Component Analysis was carried out to investigate the construct validity of the factors. Cronbach's alpha (a) was used considering the reliability of the factors. The main findings of the study were that significant differences existed between students who dropped out and those who continued with regard to their study approach. Students who continued, scored significantly higher on the meaningful integrative approaches when entering UAS. Students' personalreasons to drop out or to continue their study were threefold. Principal Component Analysis revealed three reliable main factors, as reasons for leaving education or staying in the educational program. The three main reasons were identical for dropouts and for students who continued, but these reasonscorresponded in the opposite direction. These reasons were: (1) students' views on their future occupations, (2) pragmatic and personal matters, and (3) students' perceptions and experiences with issues related to education, organization and the learning environment. Regarding the relation between study approach and these three reasons, differences between students who dropped out and continuing students existed. Furthermore, relations between the reasons differed with regard to both groups studied. Chapter five presents the conclusion and discussion of this dissertation. Regarding the first main research question the main conclusions are that the findings reported in this dissertation confirm that personality characteristics influence personal orientations on learning which, in turn, influence study approach. Furthermore, personality characteristics influence study approach directly. This conclusion is valid for SGSE-students as well as for SSVE-students: the fit of the working model applied to both SGSE-students and SSVE-students for strength and direction of the relations. Next, there are differences between students with regard to former education with respect to personality characteristics and learning patterns, personal orientations on learning and study approach when entering UAS. Regarding the second research question the main conclusions are that gender, conscientiousness and the personal orientation on learning ambivalence and lack of regulation are the three key factors predicting study outcome. Contrary to the expectations, former education turns out to be not a key factor predicting study outcome. Regarding the third research question the main conclusions are that differences exist between dropouts and continuing students with regard to their study approach when entering UAS: continuing students score higher on the meaningful integrative approach. Secondly, both groups of students, i.e. the dropouts and the students who continue their education, show the same three reasons to drop out or to continue their studies in the opposite direction. Finally, there are statistical differences between students who drop out and students who continue with regard to the correlations between their study approach and these reasons. Although meaningful differences between SGSE and SSVE-students were found, and the expected relations between aspects within the working model were significant, much of the variance was left unexplained. Therefore, the working model might need further adaptation in order to increase its predictive value. Three main suggestions for an adapted model are made. Firstly, other learning psychological aspects should be added, in order to increase the predictive value of the model and in order to gain more insight in student-related characteristics predicting study outcome. Possible examples are goal orientations and motivation in terms of expectancy. Secondly, to the suggested addition of these two psychological, student-related aspects, we suggest integrating students' reasons to continue or drop out into the adapted model once more. Thirdly, the dominant psychological point of view in this study might be broadened in order to gain more insight into characteristics explaining and predicting study outcome. Approximately 20% of the variance of declaring study outcome occur at the level of the learning environment. Aspects such as teacher quality, the curriculum and forms of assessment have shown to have an effect on study outcome. An adapted model could consist of: (1) biographical aspects: former education and gender, (2) psychological aspects: personality characteristics, learning patterns, goal orientations and expectancy motivation, (3) learning environmental aspects: teacher quality, assessment and curriculum, (4) students' reasons to continue or drop out, and (5) study outcome. The limitations of the study were that it was limited to enrolling students at one study year (cohort) of one particular UAS. After all, a longitudinal design is believed to be a better option in the future. Furthermore, besides a longitudinal design, also different types of research methods could be used to gain more insight into the predictors of study outcome. A so-called mixed method approach (a combination of quantitative and qualitative research) might be useful, because a mixed method design is a good way to shed light upon the complex relationships between personal aspects, environmental aspects and study outcome. Finally, the representative of the setting of the present study is something that needs attention. From a social economic perspective, the Fontys UAS participants are mainly Dutch speaking indigenous students. It is possible that in some other specific parts of the Netherlands, with more ethnic diverse inhabitants, some differences in results might be found. Three suggestions for future research were made. Firstly, to replicate this study longitudinally: participants need to be followed for a period of at least two years or, preferably, during the completion of their entire study. Secondly, it was suggested to design a quasi-experimental study in order to assess the effects of intervention programmes, which have the aim to support students during their study career. Thirdly, the need for designing case studies and studies with mixed method approaches in addition to the dominant survey research approach was underlined, because these approaches deepen insights into complex relations between the students, their learning environment and study outcome. Small-scale research regarding in-depth aspects of dropout and continuation, like the effect of interventions on a students' personal orientation on learning, might shed specific light upon predictive aspects of individual students, the underlying processes and the earlier mentioned reasons to drop out or continue. Finally, several implications for practice are presented in chapter five. When a potential student meets all the formal requirements, enrolment in UAS is possible. However, this does not guarantee a positive study outcome. Detecting and signalling students at risk at an early stage is a powerful way to reduce dropout. Although the development of intake assessments, specific interventions and obtaining separate profiles of students who are at risk on the one hand and successful students on the other hand has not been the focus of this study, our results may be a starting point for UAS for the design of an intake assessment program. These kind of implications can be implemented by student coaches in dialogue with lecturers and become embedded within an integral study career guidance program during at least the first year of study and should be 'student-centred'. This study clearly shows that study outcome cannot be described adequately as a problem caused by the students' individual characteristics alone (external attribution phenomenon), but it also comes to life by a complex interaction between students' psychological and environmental characteristics (for instance the third reason found: students' 'perception and experiences with issues related to education, organization and the learning environment'). Study outcome should be of interest and of concern, to all parties involved, students, lecturers and study career coaches, including the management of institutes and society. The results of our study underline the necessity to gain more insights into the causes of the phenomenon of dropout in order to reduce dropout and enhance study outcome of UAS-students.

Women and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Issues and Sources is a review of literature dealing with political, economic and social reconstruction from a gender perspective. One of its objectives is to go beyond conventional images of women as victims of war, and to document the many different ways in which women make a contribution to the rebuilding of countries emerging from armed conflicts. Special attention is given to women's priority concerns, to their resources and capacities, and to structural and situational factors that may reduce their participation in reconstruction processes. A second aim is to shed light on how post-war reconstruction processes influence the reconfiguration of gender roles and positions in the wake of war, and how women's actions shape the construction of post-war social structures. Following the brief Introduction is a chapter on political reconstruction. It raises questions concerning women's participation in peace-building and democratization. In order to illuminate women's expectations regarding their roles and status in post-war society, the chapter opens with a brief discussion of how and to what extent various liberation movements have addressed women's issues. While some movements considered women's issues to detract attention from the main goal of their struggle, many movements regarded women's liberation as an integral dimension of their overall struggle for social justice. The fact that women's issues were included on the political agendas and that women themselves were mobilized to participate actively in the fighting is demonstrated to have been instrumental in raising women's political awareness and their expectations of state and society today. The ensuing discussion of women's participation in formal and informal peace-building activities shows that in most cases women are excluded from formal peace negotiations. Such high-level negotiations are identified as male domains, which means that they also employ discourses and practices that are closer to men's reality than to women's. As a result, women also lack direct influence in the identification of reconstruction priorities that are usually part of a peace agreement. Nevertheless, women are demonstrated to play an influential role through their work in grassroots organizations working for peace and reconciliation. From within these organizations, women constantly challenge the authorities and other members of society with demands for peace, non-discrimination, accountability, recognition of human rights, etc. While always positioned on the margins, these organizations show their ability to mobilize large numbers of women, and to translate individual grievances into legitimate social concerns. Moreover, many of them play a significant role in building a new culture of peace at the local level by organizing peace education and community-based reconciliation and social reconstruction activities. Democratization processes are generally applauded, because they are assumed to guarantee accountability and to grant all citizens the possibility to participate in political life. However, studies on elections and decentralization demonstrate several flaws when it comes to women's position. Many countries emerging from armed conflict have adopted new constitutions that grant women equal political, social and economic rights, and many governments have developed new quota systems to ensure women equal representation in decision-making institutions at all levels. However, the implementation of these laws and good intentions often runs into major obstacles. At the government level the problems include a lack of financial resources and a lack of gender awareness or political will among staff. Other major problems are to be found at the social level, where the new discourse of gender equality may run counter to existing social norms regarding gender roles. The examples discussed show that, in some cases, local authorities and male members of society may discourage or prohibit women from participating in political activities. Moreover, the fact that the division of labour has not changed in favour of women, but rather added to their burden, also poses practical limitations on the possibilities for active involvement of women. Despite these constraints, women have made remarkable contributions in many countries. In the context of elections women have organized civic education targeting women, and they have convinced women of the importance of their vote. Educated women have organized legal counselling to inform women about their rights and to help them exercise these rights. Chapter three deals with economic reconstruction and the strategies that women develop to cope with war-induced changes in the economic environment and to meet the growing responsibilities for the survival and well-being of family and relatives. The focus is on the relationship between women's economic activities and their socio-economic position. The first section of the chapter concentrates on women's involvement in agricultural production, which often constitutes a major source of income. In addition to problems of landmines, a lack of agricultural inputs and farm implements, a shattered infrastructure and the inaccessibility of markets, etc., which equally trouble male farmers, women face a number of particular challenges. First, women often lack legal rights to land and other resources which, in the context of social disintegration where a large number of women become single providers, may reduce their ability to survive on farming alone. In some countries, women are organizing themselves to lobby state and local authorities for increased access to such resources, but in many cases women are forced off the land and are compelled to seek other sources of income. Another problem facing women in agriculture is the dismantling of traditional work groups due to displacement, divorce, death, etc. This has often resulted in the creation of new co-operative associations and voluntary self-help groups which combine old institutions and current social conditions. When cultivating the family land is no longer an option, some women join the casual agricultural labour force. While this opportunity enables women to employ their skills and to earn an income, recent analyses suggest that this may in fact mean that women come to occupy a marginal position in the new structure of rural social stratification. Another area which proved to be of great importance to women's livelihoods was the burgeoning informal sector, with petty trade and small-scale businesses as major sources of income. The documentation of women's involvement in this sector showed a great variety in experiences. Some women took up activities in which they had also been involved prior to the war, but many engaged in innovative projects, even when it meant a break with existing social norms, as they took up jobs perceived to be male jobs. Some women established businesses on the basis of local resources and demand, while others established elaborate trading networks which cut across ethnic boundaries and national borders. Again, women's capacity to build and mobilize extensive social networks had a positive impact. But while women generally proved to be eager and capable entrepreneurs, the sustainability of their enterprises was often constrained by a lack of capital and marketing skills, not to mention the fact that the sector itself is highly insecure and fluctuating. Moreover, women's economic success would in some cases result in social stigmatization and exclusion, due to clashes with prevailing norms or jealousy. Finally, the formal sector is discussed. For various reasons, societies emerging from war usually experience a high unemployment rate, and women are often particularly marginalized with regard to access to formal employment. In some cases this is a result of the fact that women generally have poorer educational qualifications, but research also suggests that discriminatory practices are still frequent. One of the few areas where women seem privileged is the social sector, but because this sector is often exposed to budgetary cuts, women's access to income and status from this field is reduced. Nevertheless, women continue to perform related tasks, but as semi-professionals or even as volunteers. The fourth chapter focuses on social reconstruction, specifically on the rehabilitation of social services (health care and education) and wider issues of social integration. With regard to the first aspect, the main questions are whether the social sector recognizes women's particular needs, and whether it seeks to build on women's skills and capacities. The discussion on social integration shifts the focus to how women are positioned in processes of inclusion and exclusion, and to how women's strategies and activities influence social integration. Studies on the rehabilitation of social services suggest that even though women's needs and rights are increasingly recognized officially, women continue to be discriminated against with regard to access to education for social and cultural reasons. Health care and other social facilities also remain inadequate, with consequences not only for women's health, but also for their ability to participate in political and economic life. The material clearly demonstrates that social issues were generally given high priority by women themselves, and many women in post-conflict societies make a major contribution to their rehabilitation. In rural as well as urban areas, women have re-established primary education for children as a means to build local capacities and influence their socialization, and women are often involved in providing primary health care and socio-economic assistance on a self-help basis to people in crisis. However, as noted above, while such activities are generally welcomed, they are often considered but a natural extension of women's domestic obligations and hence are not remunerated or responded to with offers of training. In addition to ordinary health care problems, intrastate wars produce a number of specific health problems known as psycho-social traumas. These traumas may stem from experiences of forced displacement, torture, rape, violence, witnessing killings, etc. In some cases, women have been particularly vulnerable to this kind of assault on mind and body. But women have also been very active in addressing the scars that such experiences leave, organizing voluntary organizations which offer medical and psychological treatment. Moreover, they have helped former victims to overcome their distress and reintegrate, by offering skills training and income-generating activities. Another issue which has been addressed by women's organizations is the growth of violence within post-war societies. Through classroom education and workshops, women have sought to raise awareness about violence against women and to change the attitudes that consider such violence acceptable. As the discussion on social integration points out, there has long been a tendency to focus exclusively on the reintegration of returnees, internally displaced persons and demobilized soldiers, or of persons who have become marked and marginalized due to torture, disability, widowhood, etc. However, to the extent that any post-war society is inevitably undergoing profound changes in its socio-economic and political composition, the issue of integration is relevant to all members of society. This chapter focuses on this aspect from a gender and family perspective, and shows how integration often also has disintegrative aspects. Newly gained economic freedom and independence, long years of separation and exposure to new social environments and attitudes, new perceptions of the role of the family and its members, and forced migration in search of employment, all contribute to continued dismantling of existing social institutions and the establishment of new ones. Social integration, in other words, is not simply about "coming home", but about defining new guiding social values and establishing corresponding relationships and institutions based on a combination of factors including kinship, socio-economic interests, and shared experiences and circumstances. In the final chapter, conventional conceptualizations of women in conflict and post-conflict situations are examined. The chapter also contains some suggestions for alternative concepts and approaches which appear to be better tools for our understanding of women's situation and thus for the development of programmes that will assist women in their multiple efforts to rebuild their lives. It is pointed out that our understanding of women's roles in post-war societies and of their contributions to post-war reconstruction must go beyond the universalistic narrative of "women's experience of war". The specificity and diversity of women's experiences must be acknowledged. Only on this basis can we conduct comparative analyses and begin to develop a deeper general understanding of post-war reconstruction from a gender perspective. Second, the concluding chapter stresses the need to supplement the image of women as vulnerable victims with an image of women as a highly differentiated group of social actors, who possess valuable resources and capacities and who have their own agendas. Women influence the course of things, and their actions are constitutive of post-war societies. The reduction of women to targets and beneficiaries both fails to recognize their contributions and contributes to their marginalization. A third point stressed in the conclusion is the need for gender-specific data and gender-focused analysis. While special attention is given to women throughout the publication, so as to make visible the previously invisible, the aim has been to see women's situation within a gender framework which pays attention to how gender roles and relationships are continuously constructed and contested by different actors, and which recognizes the gender dimension inherent in all aspects of post-war reconstruction. The gender perspective is also relevant for the achievement of sustainable peace. As the analysis strongly suggests, the failure to recognize gender issues may produce new social tensions and contribute to the differentiating struggles over identity, status and power that are so distinctive for societies which have recently achieved peace.

Crowded and isolated Black and Latino neighborhoods are marked by economic deprivation and social depression. Many residents of these neighborhoods are disconnected from the larger society, no longer able to share in the values or social norms of majority America. The study of this concentrated poverty has become a new mini-industry. There has been a spate of books, reports, and articles on the phenomenon, which is variously known as "persistent poverty," the "underclass," or the "new poor." The authors of this book reject the label "underclass" because it is demeaning and "new poor" because it is inaccurate. We find it more profitable to focus on the problems of separation. Poverty has always afflicted America, and even long-term poverty has been an issue during other periods of the nation's development. Today, American society faces a period of growing social and economic separation, caused by worsened opportunities for the poor and resulting in more destructive long-term consequences for them and the society as a whole. We begin with the idea that global economic restructuring has since about 1975 altered the way political and social institutions work at every level in America. Until politics and economics are again reshaped, the problems of urban poverty will remain severe. Reshaping may begin as the pressures from urban separation force community-level institutions and politics to respond; in their response we believe these institutions should be strengthened, restructured, and redirected. Multi-local coalitions should be formed to press for re-allocation of federal resources in favor of domestic needs and for re-regulation of the national economy in favor of workers and common citizens. Only then can a successful attack begin on the problems of persistent poverty. To set the stage for directing the reader's attention to the conditions under which neighborhood organizations and municipal governments can mount a successful attack that will modify the structure and management of the national political economy, we have collected props from a wide-ranging survey. We begin by looking at such broad concerns as the behavior of the global economy, and we conclude with a focus on such narrow questions as the viability of particular municipal programs to alleviate poverty. In the middle sections, our survey shows in detail how persistent poverty in American cities is connected to various influential structures and processes: the global economy, the U.S. industrial structure, federal social policy, metropolitan labor markets, and finally, local politics and policy. We imagine a network of connections. At each of five nodes some of these processes are going through changes, being "restructured" or reorganized. Until quite recently it was assumed that basic needs--such as housing, education, health care, neighborhood safety, and jobs--could be made available to nearly all Americans. Programs to provide these necessities had been expanding for over 50 years, the guarantee becoming over time more accepted as a social responsibility; but suddenly this basic commitment to a social contract has been changed. American society now promises little and delivers less to people or communities who cannot provide for themselves. In the process of transformation, the world's richest nation is creating a third-world sub-society within its own borders. Policymakers have adopted three ways of thinking about these emerging problems. Some hold to the notion that poverty is increasing because a lax welfare state has generated a large group of "nonparticipants," "marginal people," bums. Probably a larger group of policymakers think the rising problems of the poor are caused simply by cutbacks in resources devoted to social equity. A third group sees poverty as an almost inevitable consequence of the vagaries of the market, made worse in recent years by globalization of the economy and lack of a national economic plan. Our argument is that the recent upsurge in persistent urban poverty has been generated by a particular set of American political responses to transformations in structure of the global and domestic economies, exacerbated considerably by a long process of highly subsidized suburbanization and by racism. The purpose of this book is to support this argument by reviewing and interpreting research on the global economy, industrial change, and public policy. In doing this we are able to estimate their combined effects on cities, neighborhoods, and residents. Since the late 1970s the global economy has become increasingly integrated, and American corporations have moved world-wide in search of cheaper ways to produce to meet stiff competition. As a result, American workers have felt a steady erosion of their power and a persistent reduction in their standard of living. There is a trickledown effect in reverse, a backwash that swamps American labor. Unskilled workers have been marginalized by widespread plant shut-downs and blue-collar lay-offs, and they have found a paucity of good career ladders, stuck instead in low-wage, dead-end, service jobs. At the same time, many poorly prepared immigrants have arrived; many women have come to head families, finding themselves unable to support households on their own;) and discrimination against minorities has continued. While some Americans have benefitted financially from the post 1970 changes, the poorest have been pushed down or cut adrift. The federal government, preoccupied with global-economy issues, and careful to be responsive to the growing demands of its new, upper-middle-class, suburban constituencies, has sacrificed the urban poor. State and local governments have also retrenched, adding to the crisis, by responding to demands for austerity from business, tax-paying voters and public officials alike. When the squeeze came from the global economy, public institutions were unprepared to relieve the inevitable difficulties the poor would encounter. Corporate redeployment and government economizing insured that city labor markets would turn sour, especially for basic jobs. Federal funds for cities and poor people were cut and guarantees for benefits and services were reduced. The tax revolt was managed by new politics that coalesced after 35 years of white, middle-class suburbanization the budget reductions hit hardest of all on public jobs and services in central cities. In the scramble to survive from shutdowns, contractions, layoffs, and budget cuts, everyone with any power tried to get out and get ahead, and those with less power got left farther and farther behind, increasingly separated from the main society. The majority of Black Americans and Latinos already were subjected to relatively low wages, bad housing, and poor schools. Most women supporting children by themselves already had great difficulties. New immigrants from Latin America and South East Asia were already near the bottom. In earlier years, economic growth and the development of a more liberal society had allowed some in such situations to escape the poverty of the ghetto and the bad barrios, and because many believed in this promise, some communities had an aura of hopefulness. But with the job losses and the program cuts replacing sound economic growth, and the new self-interest replacing community and collective interests, the situation worsened for those left behind; their expectations plummeted, and their communities became isolated. We find that cities and even neighborhoods have had to turn more and more to their own energies and resources. It is true that they are strapped tightly to small budgets, have made little dent so far on the most serious problems, and will ultimately have to depend on private sector job growth and re-established, well-funded, federal transfer programs. But local governments and community-based organizations are close to problems, and they have both the opportunity to become involved and the need to revitalize these poor communities. Their role in solving community problems has escalated over the last two decades, along with rising expectations for them to intervene. City halls and community organizations are therefore forced to innovate, press demands, and represent neighborhoods. From this pessimistic dilemma arises the main line of our optimism, our principle recommendation for policy. At the national level, action to reduce poverty is at a standstill, or worse. At the local level, resources are not available. But because problems are deep, apparent, and threatening to local authorities, local political movements have grown more successful; both community organizations and city halls have turned seriously to the task of dealing with poverty. As they well know, on their own they cannot succeed; but through cooperation, through state and national coalitions, and by means of other influences on national politics, these progressive local political movements can move toward success. New policies should be directed toward strengthening such possibilities. In Chapter One, after a cursory review of theories of poverty, we lay out our major thesis and preview the various arguments and findings of the book. In Chapter Two we document the appalling conditions of poor and minority people in central cities, explaining why persistent, concentrated, urban poverty ought to be seen in relation to the separations that result from inequalities in the entire distribution of income and wealth. In Chapter Three we analyze the connections between the structure and movement of the new global economy and the dilemmas of the poorest Americans. There we examine widely dispersed, globalized markets and production arrangements that are managed by the tightly centralized control systems of major corporations. In Chapter Four we extend the arguments and see how changing industrial patterns have worsened the structure of opportunities facing most American cities and workers. Simultaneous dispersal of jobs and centralization of management have removed good jobs from cities and left behind minorities and women, and their children. With limited social contact outside their embattled neighborhoods and with weakened social contracts tying them to the larger community, these people have settled into a persistent poverty that leaves few routes for escape. In Chapter Five we first see how economic changes have led to a new, conservative politics. We then examine policies of the federal government, local government, and community-based organizations, finding what is innovative about them and what constrains them. There we argue that only through local reconstruction and a new organization of politics, involving grass-roots and neighborhood groups in new ways, will pressure build up for the required transformation in national politics that will rechannel funds toward domestic needs. In the end, democratic participation and politics will have to take control of the economy, or else poverty will indeed persist. The sources for new change are to be found in coalitions formed from below. Finally, in Chapter Six we propose specific ways that new energy and attention can be refocused in improved policies at all levels of government. There is a tension throughout this study. We are faced with a conflict between two findings. On the one hand, powerful global economic forces play a major role in determining the life chances of American citizens. On the other hand, the situation of the poor can be radically improved through a staged process of local empowerment, the formation of new political coalitions, and the consequent reformulation of a national agenda. The reader may find, concerning the first view, that the arguments in Chapters Three and Four appear to be top-down and accepting of the force of structural arrangements like competitive markets, and too despairing of the potential good influence of human agency, through social movements, political action, and the like. The arguments in these chapters display our deep concern that global economic forces be better understood by the nation's policymakers, so that global contributions to severe poverty in American cities can be traced through to corporate behavior in a newly expanded, more competitive, and highly integrated world market. At the other extreme, the reader may find that the tasks we set in Chapters Five and Six for changed local governments and coalitions of local forces are too demanding; chances for challenging and improving federal policy may seem remote. We acknowledge this risk of asking the reader to examine both sides of the question, but do so because the problems of urban poverty in the United States today are immense, and their resolution will require complex solutions and far-reaching changes. This study began in 1989 for a report to the Rockefeller Foundation on the current state of research on persistent and severe urban poverty. The idea grew our of the authors' discussion with James Gibson and Erol Ricketts, who were concerned with the relationships among economic structure, local institutions, and persistent poverty. The Foundation's Equal Opportunity Division provided generous financial support. Our survey of research and analysis was done together with a team of graduate students at Cornell University and the University of California at Berkeley; Lisa Bornstein, David Campt, and Elizabeth Mueller researched and drafted chapters; Robert Letcher, Sharon Lord, Susan Sullivan, and George Washington assisted. The work was done mainly under the auspices of the University of California's Institute of Urban and Regional Development. We thank Marie Floyd, David Van Arnam, and Demetra Dentes (at Cornell) for editing and typing; and Cathy Girardeau and Arleda Martinez, who efficiently helped with typing.

Crowded and isolated Black and Latino neighborhoods are marked by economic deprivation and social depression. Many residents of these neighborhoods are disconnected from the larger society, no longer able to share in the values or social norms of majority America. The study of this concentrated poverty has become a new mini-industry. There has been a spate of books, reports, and articls on the phenomenon, which is variously known as "persistent poverty,", the underclass," or the "new poor." The authors of this book reject the label "underclass" because it is demeaning and "new poor" because it is inaccurate. We find it more profitable to focus on the problem of separation. Poverty has always afflicted America, and even long-term poverty has been an issue during other periods of the nation's development. Today, American society faces a period of growing social and economic separation, caused by worsened opportunities for the poor and resulting in more destructive long-term consequences for them and the society as a whole. We begin with the idea that global economic restructuring has since about 1975 altered the way political and social institutions work at every level in America. Until politics and economics are again reshaped, the problems of urban poverty will remain severe. Reshaping may begin as the pressures from urban separation force community-level institutions should be strengthened, restructured, and redirected. Multi-local coalitions should be formed to press for re-allocation of federal resources in favor of domestic needs and for re-regulation of the national economy in favor of workers and common citizens. Only then can a successful attack begin on the problems of persistent poverty. To set the stage for directing the reader's attention to the conditions under which neighborhood organizations and municipal governments can mount a successful attack that will modify the structure and management of the national political economy, we have collected props from a wide-ranging survey. We begin by looking at such broad concerns as the behavior of the global economy, and we conclude with a focus on such narrow questions as the viability of particular municipal programs to alleviate poverty. In the middle sections, our survey shows in detail how persistent poverty in American cities is connected to various influential structures and processes: the global economy, the U.S. industrial structure, federal social policy metropolitan labor markets, and finally, local politics and policy. We imagine a network of connections. At each of five nodes some of these processes are going through changes, being "restructured" or reorganized. Until quite recently it was assumed that basic needs -- such as housing, education, health care, neighborhood safety, and jobs -- could be made available to nearly all Americans. Programs to provide these necessities had been expanding for over 50 years, the guarantee becoming over time more accepted as a social responsibility; but suddenly this basic commitment to a social contract has been changed. American society now promises little and delivers less to people or communities who cannot provide for themselves. In the process of transformation, the world's richest nation is creating a third-world sub-society within its own borders. Policymakers have adopted three ways of thinking about these emerging problems. Some hold to the notion that poverty is increasing because a lax welfare state has generated a large group of "non-participants," "marginal people," bums. Probably a larger group of policymakers think the rising problems of the poor are caused simply by cutbacks in resources devoted to social equity. A third group sees poverty as an almost inevitable consequence of the vagaries of the market, made worse in recent years by globalization of the economy and lack of a national economic plan. Our argument is that the recent upsurge in persistent urban poverty has been generated by a particular set of American political responses to transformations in structure of the global and domestic economies, exacerbated considerably by a long process of highly subsidized suburbanization and by racism. The purpose of this book is to support this argument by reviewing and interpreting research on the global economy, industrial change, and public policy. In doing this we are able to estimate their combined effects on cities, neighborhoods, and residents. Since the late 1970s the global economy has become increasingly integrated, and American corporations have moved world-wide in search of cheaper ways to produce to meet stiff competition. As a result, American workers have felt a steady erosion of their power and a persistent reduction in their standard of living. There is a trickle-down effect in reverse, a backwash that swamps American labor. Unskilled workers have been marginalized by widespread plant shut-downs and blue-collar lay-offs, and they have found a paucity of good career ladders, stuck instead in low-wage, dead-end, service jobs. At the same time, many poorly prepared immigrants have arrived; many women have come to head families, finding themselves unable to support households on their own;) and discrimination against minorities has continued. While some Americans have benefited financially from the post 1970 changes, the poorest have been pushed down or cut adrift. The federal government, preoccupied with global-economy issues, and careful to be responsive to the growing demands of its new, upper-middle-class, suburban constituencies, has sacrificed the urban poor. State and local governments have also retrenched, adding to the crisis, by responding to demands for austerity from business, tax-paying voters and public officials alike. When the squeeze came from the global economy, public institutions were unprepared to relieve the inevitable difficulties the poor would encounter. Corporate redeployment and government economizing insured that city labor markets would turn sour, especially for basic jobs. Federal funds for cities and poor people were cut and guarantees for benefits and services were reduced. The tax revolt was managed by new politics that coalesced after 35 years of white, middle-class suburbanization; the budget reductions hit hardest of all on public jobs and services in central cities. In the scramble to survive from shutdowns, contractions, layoffs, and budget cuts, everyone with any power tried to get out and get ahead, and those with less power got left farther and farther behind, increasingly separated from the main society. The majority of Black Americans and Latinos already were subjected to relatively low wages, bad housing, and poor schools. Most women supporting children by themselves already had great difficulties. New immigrants from Latin America and South East Asia were already near the bottom. In earlier years, economic growth and the development of a more liberal society had allowed some in such situations to escape the poverty of the ghetto and the bad barrios, and because many believed in this promise, some communities had an aura of hopefulness. But with the job losses and the program cuts replacing around economic growth, and the new self-interest replacing community and collective interests, the situation worsened for those left behind; their expectations plummeted, and their communities became isolated. We find that cities and even neighborhoods have had to turn more and more to their own energies and resources. It is true that they are strapped tightly to small budgets, have made little dent so far on the most serious problems, and will ultimately have to depend on private-sector job growth and re-established, well-funded, federal transfer programs. But local governments and community-based organizations are close to problems, and they have both the opportunity to become involved and the need to revitalize these poor communities. Their role in solving community problems has escalated over the last two decades, along with rising expectations for them to intervene. City halls and community organizations are therefore forced to innovate, press demands, and represent neighborhoods. From this pessimistic dilemma arises the main line of our optimism, our principle recommendation for policy. At the national level, action to reduce poverty is at a standstill, or worse. At the local level, resources are not available. But because problems are deep, apparent, and threatening to local authorities, local political movements have grown more successful; both community organizations and city halls have turned seriously to the task of dealing with poverty. As they well know, on their own they cannot succeed; but through cooperation, through state and national coalitions, and by means of other influences on national politics, these progressive local political movements can move toward success. New policies should be directed toward strengthening such possibilities. In Chapter One, after a cursory review of theories of poverty, we lay out our major thesis and preview the various arguments and findings of the book. In Chapter Two we document the appalling conditions of poor and minority people in central cities, explaining why persistent, concentrated, urban poverty ought to be seen in relation to the separations that result from inequalities in the entire distribution of income and wealth. In Chapter Three we analyze the connections between the structure and movement of the new global economy and the dilemma of the poorest Americans. There we examine widely dispersed, globalized markets and production arrangements that are managed by the tightly centralized control systems of major corporations. In Chapter Four we extend the arguments and see how changing industrial patterns have worsened the structure of opportunities facing most American cities and workers. Simultaneous dispersal of jobs and centralization of management have removed good jobs from cities and left behind minorities and women, and their children. With limited social contact outside their embattled neighborhoods and with weakened social contracts tying them to the larger community, these people have settled into a persistent poverty that leaves few routes for escape. In Chapter Five we first see how economic changes have led to a new, conservative politics. We then examine policies of the federal government, local government, and community-based organizations, finding what is innovative about them and what constrains them. There we argue that only through local reconstruction and a new organization of politics, involving grass-roots and neighborhood groups in new ways, will pressure build up for the required transformation in national politics that will rechannel funds toward domestic needs. In the end, democratic participation and politics will have to take control of the economy, or else poverty will indeed persist. The sources for new change are to be found in coalitions formed from below. Finally, in Chapter Six we propose specific ways that new energy and attention can be refocused in improved policies at all levels of government. There is a tension throughout this study. We are faced with a conflict between two findings. On the one hand, powerful global economic forces play a major role in determining the life chances of American citizens. On the other hand, the situation of the poor can be radically improved through a staged process of local empowerment, the formation of new political coalitions, and the consequent reformation of a national agenda. The reader may find, concerning the first view, that the arguments in Chapters Three and Four appear to be top-down and accepting of the force of structural arrangements like competitive markets, and too despairing of the potential good influence of human agency, through social movements, political action, and the like. The arguments in these chapters display our deep concern that global economic forces be better understood by the nation's policymakers, so that global contributions to severe poverty in American cities can be traced through to corporate behavior in a newly expanded, more competitive, and highly integrated world market. At the other extreme, the reader may find that the tasks we set in Chapters Five and Six for changed local governments and coalitions of local forces are too demanding; chances for challenging and improving federal policy may seem remote. We acknowledge this risk of asking the reader to examine both sides of the question, but do so because the problems of urban poverty in the United States today are immense, and their resolution will require complex solutions and far-reaching changes. This study began in 1989 for a report to the Rockefeller Foundation on the current state of research on persistent and severe urban poverty. The idea grew out of the authors' discussion with James Gibson and Erol Ricketta, who were concerned with the relationships among economic structure, local institutions, and persistent poverty. The Foundation's Equal Opportunity Division provided generous financial support. Our survey of research and analysis was done together with a team of graduate students at Cornell University and the University of California at Berkeley; Lisa Bornstein, David Campt, and Elizabeth Mueller researched and drafted chapters; Robert Letcher, Sharon Lord, Susan Sullivan, and George Washington assisted. The work was done mainly under the auspices of the University of California's Institute of Urban and Regional Development. We thank Marie Floyd, David Van Arnam, and Demetra Dentes (et Cornell) for editing and typing; and Cathy Girardeau and Arieda Martinez, who efficiently helped with typing.

En el Capítulo 1 se provee el marco teórico y los objetivos planteados en este estudio. En elCapítulo 2 se presentan las grillas de precipitación y temperatura hechas a partir de unarecopilación de datos mensuales en la región. Se compilaron 218 y 114 registros deprecipitaciónytemperaturarespectivamente,provenientesdeinstitucionesgubernamentales y privadas de la región. Estos datos fueron interpolados mediante latécnica de co-kriging para obtener grillas de precipitación y temperatura de 20 km x 20 kmcubriendo el norte de la Patagonia desde 63° a 75° longitud Oeste y 35° a 45° latitud Sur.Estas nuevas grillas (Grillado Climático para Patagonia Norte, o GCPN) representan lasvariaciones de los rasgos espaciales en los campos medios de temperatura y precipitaciónde una manera más realista que las grillas climáticas globales disponibles en la actualidad.También se comparó el desempeño de estas grillas con otras grillas climáticas globales deuso común en la región. A partir del trabajo realizado en este capítulo se ha publicado unartículo científico en una revista indexada (DOI:10.1007/s13351-015-5058-y).En el capítulo 3 se analizó la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la precipitación y latemperatura (utilizando las grillas presentadas en el capítulo 2) y su relación con fenómenosclimáticos de gran escala. La variabilidad espacio-temporal de los campos de precipitacióny temperatura a escala regional fue establecida aplicando un Análisis de ComponentesPrincipales (ACP) a los datos grillados. Una vez determinados los patrones dominantes, seexploraron los forzantes del sistema climático a escala hemisférica y global asociados a lavariabilidad en la temperatura y precipitación en el norte de la Patagonia. A grandes rasgos,el análisis de componentes principales aplicado a las series de precipitación y temperaturaidentificó cuatro grandes patrones de variabilidad temporal en la región. El patrón asociadoal sector noroeste de la región presenta un clima tipo mediterráneo. El patrón asociado alsector Este y Noreste coincide con el clima frio semiárido. El patrón asociado al sector Sury Sudeste coincide con el clima árido frio, mientras que el patrón asociado a la región Sur ySudoeste coincide con la región de clima oceánico. La comparación de estos patrones dominantes de variabilidad en la temperatura y laprecipitación sobre el norte de la Patagonia con índices de circulación océano/atmosferaarrojó algunas relaciones de interés. Por ejemplo, existe una relación negativa entre laprecipitación en el Oeste de la región de estudio (clima tipo Mediterráneo) durante laprimavera, el verano y el otoño y la Oscilación Antártica (AAO). El fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) está relacionado, en su fase cálida, a un aumento deprecipitación sobre la Cordillera de los Andes, particularmente al Oeste de esta durante laprimavera. En el invierno, los eventos cálidos ENOS están asociados a mayoresprecipitaciones en el sector Este de la región. Los índices del Océano Atlántico (SAODI yTSA) solo muestran una relación negativa con la precipitación en el Este de la regióndurante el invierno. La AAO resulta ser el principal forzante de las variaciones en latemperatura en el norte de la Patagonia. Muestra relaciones positivas con esta variable en elSur de la región durante el verano, el otoño y la primavera; y en el Este de la región duranteel invierno.En el capítulo 4 se analiza la variabilidad espacial y temporal del Índice de VegetaciónNormalizado (IVN) mediante el análisis de componentes principales, y se comparan lasregiones que resultan de este análisis con clasificaciones previas de la vegetación en laregión que tienen en cuenta atributos estructurales o funcionales de la misma. Lavariabilidad espacio-temporal del IVN derivado de sensores remotos fue analizada tanto anivel de Región Ecológica Homogénea o Tipo Forestal , como a escala regional aplicandoel Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP). La variabilidad temporal se analizó a nivelintra-anual e interanual, filtrando el ciclo anual mediante el cálculo de los desvíosestandarizados. Se pudieron reconocer, a grandes rasgos, cuatro regiones donde lavariabilidad temporal del IVN se comporta de manera relativamente homogénea: 1) Regiónde Clima Mediterráneo, que se corresponde con los Tipos Forestales Araucaria, Coihue ?Raulí ? Roble, las Regiones Ecológicas de Pastizales Subandinos y de Sierras y Mesetas(en transición con el clima Frio Semiárido), y el Tipo Forestal Lenga, en transición con elclima Templado Oceánico; 2) Región de clima Semiárido Frío y Árido Frío, quecomprende a las Regiones Ecológicas de Sierras y Mesetas, Distrito central de Chubut yDistrito del Golfo (que a su vez conforman la Provincia Fitogeográfica Patagónica); 3) Región de climas Templado Oceánico y Subpolar Oceánico, que comprende a los TiposForestales Alerce, Siempreverde Valdiviano y Lenga adyacentes; 4) Región de Clima Friosemiárido, representada principalmente por la Provincia Fitogeográfica del Monte (MonteAustral y Monte Oriental). A grandes rasgos, se puede observar que el ciclo anual es elrasgo predominante de la variabilidad del IVN hacia el Noroeste de la región (zona declima mediterráneo). El ciclo anual pierde su amplitud hacia el Sur y hacia el Este, amedida que adquieren mayor importancia los ciclos intra- e inter-anuales.En el capítulo 5 se analiza la relación entre la variabilidad en el IVN y las variaciones en lasprecipitaciones y la temperatura, considerando diferentes escalas temporales en las que sepueden manifestar estas relaciones. La temperatura, particularmente al comienzo de laestación de crecimiento, parece ser el factor climático determinante del crecimiento de losBosques Templados y de algunas regiones ecológicas pertenecientes a la ProvinciaFitogeográfica de la Patagonia (Distritos del Golfo y Central de Chubut). Para la regiónecológica del Monte Oriental, la precipitación de verano es el factor determinante de ladinámica del IVN a escala intra-anual. Este acoplamiento entre la precipitación y el IVN enesta región no ha sido reportado en trabajos anteriores. Esta relación pareciera estarasociada a la mayor abundancia relativa de especies C4 en esta región. Las especies C4 sonparticularmente eficientes para aprovechar los eventos esporádicos de lluvia durante elverano. Este acoplamiento entre el IVN y la precipitación es evidente a diferentesfrecuencias temporales, particularmente en la escala interanual.En el capítulo 6 se abordó el estudio de la relación entre la variabilidad del IVN y lasvariaciones climáticas de gran escala. Los índices muestran diferentes asociaciones con lospatrones de IVN según la región y la época del año. En líneas generales, la AAO influenciatodos los patrones de IVN. Esto probablemente se deba a que su influencia en laprecipitación y la temperatura abarcan casi la totalidad de la región estudiada. El fenómenoEl Niño-Oscilación del Sur también muestra asociaciones con tres patrones, pero surelación más notoria con el IVN se observa en los Bosques Siempreverde y de Alercedurante la primavera y el verano. Por su parte, tanto los índices asociados a la circulacióndel Océano Atlántico, así como las TSM del Atlántico tropical, influyen las variaciones en los patrones que corresponden a las Regiones Ecológicas del Monte Austral y MonteOriental y la Provincia Fitogeográfica de la Patagonia. ; This doctoral dissertation is organized in seven chapters. Chapter 1 provides the theoretical framework and the main goals of this thesis. In Chapter 2, 218 and 114 precipitation and temperature records, respectively, were compiled from different governmental and private institutions to develop a gridded climatic data base across northern Patagonia. Based on a co-kriging methodology, these precipitation and temperature records were interpolated into 20 x 20 km-resolution grids covering northern Patagonia from 63º to 75º W longitude (from Atlantic to Pacific coast) and from 35º to 45º S latitude. These new grids (Northern Patagonia Climate Grids, NPCG) represent spatial variations of both temperature and precipitation fields in a more realistic manner than other global climate grids currently available for the region. The performance of NPCG was contrasted with other global climate grids commonly used in northern Patagonia. This work has already been published in an international, indexed journal (DOI:10.1007/s13351-015-5058-y). In Chapter 3, spatial and temporal variations in temperature and precipitation, based on NPCG (chapter 2) were analyzed, along with their relationships with large-scale climate forcings. The dominant modes of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation were determined by applying a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the gridded data sets. Once that the main patterns of temperature and precipitation variability were identified, they were compared with large-scale (continental, hemispheric to global) climatic drivers. Overall, the PCA analyses of the temperature and precipitation grids identified four different patterns of spatio-temporal variability in northern Patagonia. The northwestern Patagonia pattern shows the classical features related to the Mediterranean climate across Central Chile and the adjacent Cordillera de los Andes. The pattern associated with the cold semiarid climate prevails in the eastern and northeastern sectors of northern Patagonia. The spatial pattern related to the south-southeastern region in northern Patagonia encompass the dominant cold arid climate, whereas the southern and southwestern sectors in the study region coincides with the Pacific oceanic climate. The dominant patterns of variability in temperature and precipitation showed interesting links with several atmosphere/ocean circulation indexes. For example, negative relationships were recorded between precipitation in the Mediterranean sector during spring, summer and fall and the Antarctic Oscillation index (AAO). In contrast, the warm events of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are associated with positive rainfall anomalies west of the Andes range during spring. In winter, warm ENSO events are related to above-mean rainfalls anomalies in the Eastern sector of the study area. The indices associated with the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean (SAODI and TSA) are negatively related to precipitation in the Eastern sector during winter. The AAO seems to be the main driver of temperature variability in northern Patagonia. The AAO shows positive relationships with temperature in the southern sector of northern Patagonia during summer, autumn and spring, and in the eastern sector during winter. The establishment of the spatio-temporal variations in the Normalized-Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on Principal Component Analysis, was the main goal of Chapter 4. The NDVI-based regions identified were compared with vegetation classifications based on structural or functional features of vegetation across northern Patagonia. The spatio-temporal variability in NDVI was estimated based on previously established ecosystems (from forests to dry steppe) and similarities in NDVI according to PCA analysis). Temporal variations were analyzed in both intra and inter-annual scales. The annual cycle in NDVI was removed from the original time series by computing the standard deviations in relations to the period 2001-2010. Four regions with relativehomogeneous temporal behaviors were identified: 1) The Mediterranean climate region, which shows similarities with the Coihue – Rauli – Roble, Lenga and Araucaria forest types, and the Pastizales Subandinos and Sierras y Mesetas grassland-upper steppe types; 2) The region with cold semiarid and arid climate, which spatially overlaps with the Sierras y Mesetas, Distrito Central de Chubut and Distrito del Golfo steppe regions; 3) The region of temperate and subantartic oceanic climates, which is associated with the Alerce, Siempreverde Valdiviano and Lenga forest types; and 4) The region of cold semiarid climate related to the Monte Austral and Monte Oriental ecological regions. Overall, a dominant annual cycle is the main feature of the temporal evolution of the NDVI in the Mediterranean climate zone. The amplitude of the annual cycle diminishes towards the south and the east where intra- and inter-annual cycles gain importance. In Chapter 5, the relationships between the variability of NDVI and temperature and precipitation are documented, taking into consideration the different temporal scales in which interactions between these variables occur. Temperature, mainly at the beginning of the growing season, seems to be the determinant factor for the growth of the temperate forests and the Distritos del Golfo and Central de Chubut grassland-steppe regions. For the Monte Oriental ecological region, summer rainfall is the most important factor related to the inter-annual dynamic in the NDVI. This strong temporal coupling between summer rainfall and NDVI in the Monte oriental has not been previously reported. This relationship seems to be associated with the abundance of C4 species in this ecological region. C4 species take advantages of the sporadic summer rainfalls more efficiently than C3 plants. This coupling between rainfall and NDVI is present at different timescales, particularly at the inter-annual scale. Relationships between NDVI variability and large-scale climate forcings were documented in Chapter 6. Linkages between NDVI and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices vary according to the seasons and different vegetation regions across northern Patagonia. Overall, the AAO influences most patterns of NDVI variability, in response to the pervasive influences of the AAO on temperature and precipitation regimens over most northern Patagonia. ENSO shows linkages with the Siempreverde Valdiviano and Alerce forest types during spring and summer. Finally, the indices associated with variations in the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) across the tropical Atlantic Ocean are related to NDVI patterns in the Monte Austral and Monte Oriental ecological regions. Finally, Chapter 7 discuss the results and provides directions for further research. ; Fil: Bianchi, Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina

Aging may be one of the most far-reaching processes defining the economic, fiscal, and social changes societies are likely to experience over the next 40 years. The demographic consequences of aging will have a dramatic impact on labor markets, economic growth, social structures--and government budgets. These issues have gained urgency after the second largest global recession in the past 100 years. Based on a broad comparative analysis of countries that include the EU and non-EU European and Central Asian countries, as well as several case studies and model simulations, the paper seeks to provide broad answers--tailored in part to distinct groups of countries according to their aging-fiscal profiles--to major questions facing governments budgets in aging societies: What are the fiscal-aging profiles of Western European, emerging European, and Central Asian countries? In other words, how good or bad is their fiscal situation--"initial conditions"--in view of their emerging aging-related problems? What kind of public spending pressures are likely to emerge in the coming decades, and what will be their relative importance? How do countries compare in terms of the possible impacts of aging on growth and long-term debt sustainability? What can be learned from in-depth and comparative case studies of aging, fiscal sustainability, and fiscal reform? Are there good-practice examples--countries doing things right at the right time--that may offer lessons for the others? And, perhaps most important, given the need for long-term fiscal consolidation for many countries, what kind of revenue and expenditure policy agendas are likely to emerge to mitigate the effects of aging? A key policy conclusion is that countries should aim for early rather than delayed reforms dealing with long-term aging pressures. The urgency is accentuated by the debt situations and/or adverse debt and demographic dynamics in almost all countries but also by the evolving voter preferences. As societies age and voting preferences increasingly reflect the political will of the older population, it will become more difficult to enact the necessary reforms ensuring social and fiscal sustainability.

Over the review period covered by this report (2003-2012), the budget allocated to agriculture increased noticeably more than the sector's contribution to GDP. This reflects a notable effort by the Chad authorities to increase the budget to boost this sector's development in recent years. In this proactive context, Chad signed its CAADP compact in December 2013 to continue supporting agriculture's revival. The CAADP is being implemented in Chad even as the terms of the National Rural Sector Investment Program (PNISR, 2014-2020) are being finalized. Within the context of the CAADP, the Government of Chad (GOC) wished to undertake a review of public agriculture expenditures to learn from past budgetary implementation in this sector with a view to improving future program performance. Following a request by the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MoAI), the NEPAD planning and coordination agency gave Chad it's backing for this review. This process was undertaken by the Program for Strengthening National Comprehensive Agricultural Public Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa, co-financed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the CAADP Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This program, implemented by the World Bank, aims to improve the impact of the still-limited public resources available to governments in Sub-Saharan Africa to foster agricultural development and reduce poverty in rural areas, where most of the poor in these countries, notably Chad, live. This study follows and builds upon a number of similar studies conducted in recent years on public expenditure management, in particular in Chad the Action Plan for the Modernization of Public Finances (PAMFIP). However, these studies have focused on budget management as a whole, and none to date has looked at the agricultural sector specifically.

The Indonesia economic quarterly reports on and synthesizes the past three months' key developments in Indonesia's economy. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for Indonesia's economic and social welfare. Indonesia's economic growth has so far remained resilient to the weakness in the global economy. Amidst a still uncertain outlook, Indonesia will need to prepare itself for the potential consequences of China's slowdown and additional falls in commodity prices, and for the possibility of renewed turbulence in financial and commodity markets. Continuing to strengthen the policy framework to deal with shocks and building economic resilience through improvements in the quality of spending and in the regulatory environment will be key to maintaining, and improving further, Indonesia's strong recent growth performance. Progress towards these goals could be tested as the 2014 election year approaches. Indonesia's economy maintained its robust pace of growth in the second quarter of 2012, expanding by 6.4 percent year-on-year, up slightly from 6.3 percent in the first quarter. Buoyant private consumption continued to lift domestic demand, and investment spending also increased strongly. Despite the rapid pace of economic activity, consumer price inflation has remained moderate to date. Headline CPI inflation fell back to 4.3 percent year-on-year in September after edging up to 4.6 percent in August, when it was pulled higher temporarily by the Idul Fitri holidays. Core inflation has remained stable, just above 4 percent. Indonesia's current account moved further into deficit in the second quarter of 2012. Structurally, the trend towards current account deficits reflects consistently strong domestic investment relative to the level of domestic savings. The slowdown in exports over 2012, alongside generally strong import demand, has seen the large goods trade balance surpluses of recent years narrow and this, coupled with consistent net outflows in the income and services sub-accounts, moved the overall current account into a deficit of 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2012.

The Public Investment Management (PIM) efficiency review is intended to support the Government of Zimbabwe, and in particular the Ministry of Finance, in its efforts to strengthen the efficiency of the public investment system, with the goal of improving the creation, operation and maintenance of public sector capital assets that support service delivery and economic growth. The problems of public investment management are not merely financial but systemic. Budget execution deficit remains a major bottleneck. Due to large backlogs across sectors, capital budget allocation has prioritized completion and rehabilitation of on-going and stalled projects and programs. Currently, public investment projects are mainly financed by the national budget. Regulatory frameworks for public-private partnerships are in place, but sluggish recovery from the private sector has not made it a notable source of financing for capital projects. Foreign loans and grants, and humanitarian aid from donors are not channeled through the official budget. This report is intended to provide the basis for a follow-on discussion with government on possible options and approaches to addressing the identified problems, focusing on those which are the most critical to Zimbabwe's economic recovery and long term development. It is complementary to the action plan, also developed by the team for consideration by the Government of Zimbabwe, which suggests a list of reform actions over the immediate to medium-term to strengthen the regulatory framework and build capacity across central and implementing agencies. The objective of the policy note is to support the Government of Zimbabwe to strengthen the efficiency of PIM system, with an ultimate goal of contributing to improved governance, service delivery, and economic growth. The study will inform a reform and capacity strengthening action plan with the Government as well as subsequent Bank's proposed technical assistance program to strengthen the PIM.

This report is structured as follows. Chapter one analyzes the performance of Kazakhstan s trade. Chapter two presents an overview of recent developments in Kazakhstan regional and international trade integration. Chapter three examines in detail key issues related to market access, focusing on non-tariff measures and trade facilitation and logistics. Chapter four examines the services sector and offers a roadmap for actions to enhance its competitiveness. Chapter five addresses building institutional capacity for the trade and competitiveness agenda. The report s recommendations are summarized in the following table. In order of the four main messages of the report, they cover balancing regional and international integration efforts, measures to improve access to inputs and export markets by reducing non-tariff barriers and through trade facilitation measures, raising the quality and efficiency of the services sector, and strengthening institutional capacity to implement an effective trade policy and competitiveness agenda.