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How do voters react to politicians who switch parties? Using the 2014 gubernatorial election in the swing state of Florida as a case study M. V. (Trey) Hood III and Seth C. McKee find that despite his positioning of himself as a moderate, when the state's former Republican Governor Charlie Crist chose to run as a Democrat, most voters saw the switch as politically opportunistic rather than principled. This view then translated into a much lower likelihood that people would vote for the former Republican.

The 1990 London local elections provided a unique opportunity to examine the sensitivity of voters to two local taxes: domestic rates and poll tax. Both taxes were found to have had an important influence on voting but in unequal proportions according to party incumbency prior to 1990. In Conservative boroughs swing was sensitive to poll tax level but this was not true in Labour boroughs. In both, swing was sensitive to the change in average local tax level in the switch from domestic rates to poll tax in 1990. Rate increases between 1986 and 1989 had a substantial effect in Labour boroughs. Other variables, such as service levels and some borough-level issues, also contributed to the high levels of explanation achieved.

In spite of being considered an example of failure of the radical right, Spain has seen for the first time since the restoration of democracy how some extreme parties got representation in the last 2003 and 2007 local elections. This article focuses on the most successful among these
parties, namely the Plataforma per Catalunya. We suggest that partisan conversion of socialist voters and mobilization of former abstainers are the main origin of radical votes. By contrast, new cohorts of voters and swings from right-wing voters or nationalist voters do not have an
influence. The results are triangulated with two methods of ecological inference that allow us to estimate the proportion of individuals who changed their vote in one direction or the other across two consecutive elections.

This article interprets data gathered from a voting population on integration with the EMU in Denmark & how campaigning influenced the voters. After discussing factors that influenced Denmark's reluctance to accept the referendum, the article analyzes the strategies used in the successful campaign to swing the voters from the yes to the no side. After drawing on information obtained from top party politicians in Denmark & their advisers, the article concludes with opinions on the future of the relationship between Denmark & the EU & its position as an example to other nations outside the EU. 2 Tables. E. Miller

Defending the former Pope's legacy may only swing a relatively small number of voters, but in a closely fought election this could be decisive in helping the right-wing ruling party to secure another outright parliamentary majority. Abuse cover-up claims and counterclaims Last month, a documentary aired by the US-owned TVN24 news channel claimed to show […]

Since unification, eastern Germany's swing vote has influenced the outcome of federal elections, & the 2002 reelection of Gerhard Schroder stands as a prime example. The Social Democrats (SPD) were able to siphon Christian Democrats (CDU) votes from eastern Germany through two unique issues: Schroder's handling of the flood recovery & his promise not to send German soldiers to the second war with Iraq. The CDU won 40.9% of the votes in western Germany, as opposed to the SPD's 38.1%. However, the SPD won 39.7% vs the CDU's 28.3% in eastern Germany. Eastern Germany's votes are more volatile & sensitive to current issues, & their votes & the SPD coalition with the Greens saved the day for Schroder. 3 Tables, 1 Figure, 4 References. L. A. Hoffman

Shipping list no.: 2012-0318-P. ; Includes bibliographical references. ; Election protection 2008: helping voters today, modernizing the systems for tomorrow -- Uniformity in election administration: a 2008 survey of swing state county clerks -- Vote it's your right: a guide to the voting rights of people with mental disabilities -- 2008 OVF post election uocava survey report and analysis -- no time to vote. ; Mode of access: Internet.

"Standout syndicated columnist and CNN contributor Salena Zito, with veteran Republican strategist Brad Todd, reports across five swing states and over 27,000 miles to answer the pressing question: Was Donald Trump's election a fluke, or did it represent a fundamental shift in the electorate that will have repercussions--for Republicans and Democrats--for years to come? The history of the American electorate is not a litany of flukes; instead it is a pattern of tectonic plate-grinding, punctuated by a landscape-altering earthquake every generation or so. Donald Trump's electoral coalition is smashing both American political parties and its previously impenetrable political news media.The political experts wrongly called the 2016 election and they keep blowing it--constantly predicting the coming demise of President Trump without pausing to consider the durability of the winds that swept him into office. The Great Revolt delves deep into the minds and hearts of the voters that make up this coalition. What emerges is a group of citizens who cannot be described by terms like "angry," "male," "rural," or the often-used "racist." They span job descriptions, income brackets, education levels, and party allegiances. What unites them is their desire to be part of a movement larger than themselves that puts pragmatism before ideology, localism before globalism, and demands the respect it deserve from Washington. Zito and Todd have traveled on over 27,000 miles of country roads to interview more than 300 Trump voters in 10 swing counties. What they have discovered is that these voters were hiding in plain sight--ignored by both parties, the media, and the political experts all at once, ready to unite into the movement that spawned the greatest upset in recent electoral history. Deeply rooted in the culture of these Midwestern swing states, Zito and Todd reframe the discussion of the "Trump voter" to answer the question: What's next?"--

Popular accounts of the labor movement often suggest that unions are in decline. While there have been sharp declines in union membership as a percentage of the workforce, this study presents evidence that organized labor's influence in the U.S. elections remains significant. Using data from the American National Election Study and the National Election Pool, the results in this study demonstrate: (1) union households, despite drops in union membership as a percentage of the workforce, have remained a sizeable percentage of the U.S electorate, especially in regions outside of the South; (2) unions boost voter turnout, including among those from traditionally underrepresented demographics; and (3) unions continue to produce a strong Democratic vote in presidential and congressional elections, and boost the Democratic vote among middle-income whites – a critical "swing" constituency. In total, these results suggest that the future strength or weakness of the labor movement is likely to have significant implications for upcoming election outcomes, the party coalitions that ultimately form for future Democratic and Republican candidates, and how representative the electorate will be relative to the population in years to come.

Election statistics from the US & western Europe show continuity & smoothness in a time series. There is a serial-r, one side of this is the appearance of tides of swings. 2 explanations are discussed (1) a stimulus, & (2) a response, theory. According to (1), aggregate response (the vote) forms a smooth curve because stimulus strength, like business conditions, forms a similar curve. In (2), a degree of inertia is assumed & response follows stimulus changes with some delay. By means of a growth (or decay) function, simple catalytic growth, & a series of 500 simulated election results with a stimulus balance which varies (within certain limits) in a random manner, it is shown that continuity & tides result. A slowly reacting system will respond to ramdom shocks in a seemingly cyclical way. The implications of this are discussed against the back-ground of current thinking on pol'al sociol & attitude theory. The need for an inductive study of speed & time concumption of soc processes is stressed, & for model parameters that remain constant, or are predictable, form one res situation to the next. AA.

How did poverty, race, population density, & other demographic characteristics affect disenfranchisement in the 2004 presidential election? I argue that there are two types of disenfranchisement: partisan disenfranchisement, which targets Democrats, & structural disenfranchisement, which targets members of low-status groups. Drawing demographic data from the United States census in 2000, & voting data from the secretaries of state websites, I use a negative binomial regression to correlate these variables with the incidence of voter disenfranchisement as collected by the Election Incident Reporting System, for the three "swing" states of Florida, Ohio, & Pennsylvania, with the "safe" states of California & Texas as controls. The results of this analysis indicate that disenfranchisement increases with population density, Black population, Democratic loyalty, & as the margin of victory decreases. Income & education also correlate with an increase in reported incidents of disenfranchisement, but that likely reflects the failings of self-report data. Tables, References. Adapted from the source document.

THE AUTHOR EVALUATES THE SUCCESS WITH WHICH LABOR AND THE LIBERAL-NATIONAL COALITION IDENTIFIED WITH PARTICULAR CATEGORIES OF VOTERS IN SUCCESSIVE STATE ELECTIONS IN NEW SOUTH WALES IN THE 1980'S. RESULTS INDICATE THAT CLASS AND PRIMARY-VS.-SECONDARY ECONOMIC CLEAVAGES DOMINATED VOTER BEHAVIOR, WITH THE BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO LARGELY REFLECTING A DECADE OF DIFFERENTIAL SWINGS TOWARD LABOR AND THE COALITION AND BETWEEN METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN ELECTORATES.