Suchergebnisse

Budući da postoje različiti načini otkrivanja namjera središnjih banaka, pojavljuje se jednostavno istraživačko pitanje, koje se razmatra u ovoj studiji. Je li komponenta očekivanja potrošača usmjerena na budućnost povezana s načinom na koji središnje banke otkrivaju i koriste prognoze? Istraživanje obuhvaća šest zemalja: Češku, Mađarsku, Rumunjsku, Poljsku, Švedsku i Veliku Britaniju, u razdoblju od 2001. do 2016. godine. Naša metodologija sastoji se od kvantifikacije očekivanja, testova racionalnosti očekivanja, procjene stupnja njihove usmjerenosti na budućnost, indeksne procjene prognoziranja centralnih banaka o transparentnosti i važnosti prognoze u monetarnoj politici, kao i korelacijskog ispitivanja dalekovidnosti monetarne politike i pogreške očekivanja. Na temelju dovršenog istraživanja povezujemo rezultate analize usmjerenosti na budućnost s indeksnom procjenom ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije. Rezultati su različiti. Najviši stupanj usmjerenosti očekivanja na budućnost nalazi se u Velikoj Britaniji i Švedskoj. Očekivanja čeških potrošača su manje usmjerena na budućnost, dok je uključenost centralnih banaka u ciljano prognoziranje inflacije usporediva sa švedskim slučajem. Dvije zemlje nemaju komponentu usmjerenu na buduća očekivanja potrošača. Studija daje vrijedan doprinos postojećoj literaturi jer predstavlja novi pristup analizi odnosa između prognoze i ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije i očekivanja usmjerenih na budućnost. ; Since there are different ways of revealing central banks' intentions, a simple research question, which we address in this study, arises. Is the forward-looking (FL) component of consumers' expectations related to the way in which the forecast is revealed and used by central banks? The research covers six countries: The Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, over the period of 2001-2016. Our methodology consists of the quantification of expectations, tests for rationality of expectations, estimation of the degree of their FL, the index-based assessment of central banks' forecasting transparency and importance of forecasts in monetary policy, as well as correlation examination of forward-lookingness of monetary policy and expectation errors. Based on the completed research, we link the results of the FL analysis to the index-based assessment of inflation forecasts targeting. The results are varied. The highest degree of expectations' FL is found for the UK and Sweden. Czech consumers' expectations are less FL, whereas central banks' involvement in inflation forecast targeting is comparable to the Swedish case. For two countries we found no forward-looking component in consumers' expectations. The study makes a valid contribution to the existing literature as it presents a novel approach to analysing the relation between forecasts and inflation forecast targeting and expectations.

Created in 1994, the Partnership for Peace (PfP) is an ambitious initiative launched by NATO to promote cooperation between this organization & nonmember states. The cooperation principles on which the PfP program is based are outlined, & the Southeast Europe Initiatives & Membership Action Plan, launched in 1997 within PfP, is described. PfP objectives & the basic elements of its program are presented. Croatia became a member of PfP in 2000, & the question of what the country can & should expect from cooperating with NATO within PfP is addressed, investigating the possible convergence of interests between the two parties. It is pointed out that the ultimate goal of Croatia's presence in PfP is the country's acceptance as a NATO member, & the government needs to develop strategies targeting this objective. Z. Dubiel

This paper considers the role of money, particularly the role of monetary analysis in monetary policy-making. During the last three decades, many central banks changed their monetary policy considerably. In the late 1970s, money & the long-run effects of its movements on inflation were in the center-stage of economic policy. Given the breakdown of the relationship between monetary aggregates & goal variables such as inflation, many countries in the world have recently adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy regime. The direct control of money supply lost importance. Central bankers operate in an environment of high uncertainty regarding the functioning of the economy. In such a complex environment, a single model or a limited set of indicators is not a sufficient guide for monetary policy. Monetary aggregates continue to be an important indicator variable, concludes the author. References. Adapted from the source document.

Hrvatska narodna banka ne temelji monetarnu politiku na ciljanju inflacije te devizni tečaj služi kao intermedijarni cilj i temelj vođenja monetarne politike u Republici Hrvatskoj. Inflacija u Republici Hrvatskoj dominantno je određena stopama inflacije u inozemstvu. Na uzorku mjesečnih podataka o indeksu potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj od siječnja 1997. do studenog 2015., prilagođen je ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model koji opisuje dinamiku kretanja indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Procijenjeni model se može koristiti za pouzdano prognoziranje kretanja potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Nadalje, kako bi se istražile karakteristike promjenjivosti indeksa potrošačkih cijena testirano je nekoliko ARCH modela. Provedeni testovi su pokazali da ARCH (1) model najbolje objašnjava promjenjivost indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. ; Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted as the one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

The paper is analysing the influence of international institutions on social policy creation in Bosnia and Herzegovina since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008. The first section gives an overview of the relevant literature, followed by a presentation of socio – economic factors that led to international credit agreement, reform agenda and actual implementation of social protection reforms. Through the analysis of proclaimed social protection objectives and their implementation by local institutions in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, an assessment of the achieved results is done in the light of realised savings and better targeting of social transfers. The paper sheds some light on inconsistent policy of both international institutions and government actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Hence, despite the proclaimed reform objectives, the system of social protection based on status rights which is fiscally unsustainable, and poorly targeted towards the poor still remains largely unchanged. ; Rad se bavi analizom utjecaja međunarodnih institucija na socijalnu politiku u Bosni i Hercegovini od početka ekonomske krize 2008. godine. U prvom se dijelu rada daje pregled relevantne literature, zatim se prezentiraju socio-ekonomski čimbenici koji su doveli do sklapanja međunarodnog kreditnog aranžmana, reformski ciljevi i način implementacije reformi sustava socijalne zaštite. Kroz analizu proklamiranih ciljeva reforme socijalne zaštite te njihovu implementaciju od strane lokalnih institucija u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine analiziraju se stvarni učinci s aspekta ostvarenih ušteda i bolje ciljanosti socijalnih transfera. Rad ukazuje na nedosljednost politike kako međunarodnih institucija u Bosni i Hercegovini tako i vladinih aktera. Unatoč proklamiranim ciljevima reforme, sustav socijalne zaštite temeljen na statusnim pravima fiskalno je neodrživ te loše ciljan prema siromašnima, ali i dalje ostaje nepromijenjen.

Važnost stabilnosti financijskog sustava najbolje je pokazala nedavna globalna financijska kriza. Slom financijskih tržišta i poremećaji u radu institucija ozbiljno su zaprijetili financijskim sustavima širom svijeta i doveli u pitanje njihovu ulogu u posredovanju pri razmjeni viškova kapitala i njihova usmjeravanja prema deficitarnim subjektima. Mnoge financijske institucije našle su se na rubu propasti, a države širom svijeta pokrenule su ekspanzivne mjere i uložile golema sredstva u spašavanje svojih tržišta. Kako financijske i bankarske krize uvijek uzrokuju fiskalne presije, važnost nadogradnje financijskog sustava preventivnim mjerama koje će očuvati povjerenje javnosti u njegovu sigurnost i zaštititi gospodarstvo od velikih gubitaka u interesu je vlada širom svijeta. Cilj ovih mjera, koje se nazivaju sigurnosne mreže financijskog sustava, je stvoriti kontrolirane uvjete za slabije informirane sudionike tržišta i zaštititi ih od gubitka. Sustavi osiguranja depozita prepoznati su kao jedan od ključnih elemenata preventivnih sigurnosnih mreža financijskog sustava. Najvažniji cilj organiziranog sustava osiguranja depozita je zaštita sredstava tzv. malih štediša odnosno potrošača koji nisu u mogućnosti samostalno procijeniti rizik institucije u koju polažu svoje viškove sredstava. Cilj ovoga rada je obrazložiti ulogu organiziranog sustava osiguranja depozita s posebnim osvrtom na sustav u Republici Hrvatskoj. ; The importance of financial system stability is best demonstrated by the recent global financial crisis. The slump in the financial markets and institutional disturbances have threatened seriously the financial systems around the world and questioned their role in mediating the exchange of capital surplus and their targeting to deficit entities. Many financial institutions have found themselves on the verge of collapse, and countries around the world have launched expansionary measures and invested huge resources in rescuing their markets. As financial and banking crises always cause fiscal pressure, the importance of upgrading the financial system through preventive measures that will preserve public confidence in its security and protect the economy from major losses is surely in the interest of governments worldwide. The goal of these measures, referred to as the financial system security grids, is to create controlled conditions for less informed market participants and protect them from loss. Deposit insurance systems have been recognized as one of the key elements of the financial system preventive security grids. The most important goal of the organized deposit insurance system is to protect the assets of so-called "small savers" or consumers unable to independently assess the risk of the institution in which they relocate their surplus funds. The aim of this paper is to explain the role of an organized deposit insurance system with special attention to the system in the Republic of Croatia.

Slovenia makes a compelling case for care policy analysis since it is marked by extreme dichotomy in care. Therefore, placing Slovenia on a continuum of care regimes ranging from defamilialised to familialised with respect to care is difficult, with care for children being highly defamilialised, and care for older people highly familialised. The country's childcare policies build on a historically well-developed system of public childcare provision and generous leave policies, together with a well-developed social protection system targeting families. These have been retained and, in some cases, were expanded, still following the 2009 economic crisis, certain austerity measures were introduced. On the other hand, care policies for older people started to develop later and after the initial growth they relatively stagnated (especially the social home-care system). A comprehensive long-term care system has yet to be developed and become a subject of ongoing political debates. Further, unlike in childcare, the increasing role of private actors can be observed in this sector. In the article, we discuss these care policy developments in Slovenia in terms of the role of relevant actors (state, family, private actors) with an emphasis on the views of people regarding care, based on data gathered within an innovative method of democratic forums. The article reveals that the dichotomy of care policies, as well as the differing recent trends in family policies for children and care for older people, is not present in people's attitudes and their preferences for the arrangement of such policies. ; Slovenija pruža dobre argumente za analizu politike skrbi jer je obilježava izrazita dihotomija u području skrbi. Stoga je teško smjestiti Sloveniju u kontinuum režima skrbi koji se proteže od defamilijaliziranog do familijaliziranog, gdje je skrb za djecu izrazito defamilijalizirana, a skrb za starije osobe izrazito familijalizirana. Mjere skrbi za djecu u zemlji oslanjaju se na povijesno dobro razvijeni sustav javne skrbi za djecu i izdašne politike o dopustu, zajedno s dobro razvijenim sustavom socijalne zaštite usmjerenom na obitelji. Te su mjere zadržane i, u nekim slučajevima, proširene, no uslijed ekonomske krize iz 2009. godine uvedene su određene mjere štednje. S druge strane, politike skrbi za starije osobe počele su se razvijati kasnije i nakon početnog rasta relativno su stagnirale (posebice sustav socijalne usluge pomoći u kući). Sveobuhvatni sustav dugoročne skrbi tek se treba razviti i postati tema kontinuiranih političkih debata. Nadalje, za razliku od skrbi za djecu, u ovom se sektoru može uočiti povećana uloga privatnih aktera. U radu raspravljamo o razvitku tih politika skrbi u Sloveniji u odnosu na ulogu relevantnih aktera (država, obitelj, privatni akteri), s naglaskom na stavove ljudi o skrbi na temelju podataka prikupljenih u sklopu inovativne metode demokratskih foruma. Rad ukazuje na to da dihotomija politika skrbi, kao i različiti noviji trendovi u obiteljskim politikama za djecu i u skrbi za starije osobe, nisu prisutni u stavovima ljudi i u njihovim preferencijama za uvođenje takvih politika.