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In this paper, the author examined the influence of Indo-ASEAN import on the ASEAN trade and financial integration during 1994-95 to 2017-18 using cointegration test, vector error correction model and Wald Test taking foreign direct investment inflows, real effective exchange rate, openness, Indo-ASEAN import, intra import share, GDP growth rate of ASEAN, the import concentration and diversification index of ASEAN as variables. The paper concludes that there are four co-integrating equations. There are short run causalities from Indo-ASEAN import, intra import share and FDI inflows of ASEAN to growth rate of ASEAN. Long run causalities were found from ASEAN growth rate of GDP to intra import share of ASEAN, from Indo-ASEAN import to growth rate of ASEAN, from FDI inflows of ASEAN and GDP growth of ASEAN to intra-ASEAN import share, from Indo-ASEAN import to import diversification index of ASEAN respectively. Lastly, there are short run causalities from indo-ASEAN import and import concentration index of ASEAN to import diversification index of ASEAN respectively during 1994-2017.
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In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 2252
SSRN
In: IMF working paper 05/19
In: Journal of international economics, Band 69, Heft 1, S. 176-202
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Caucasus analytical digest: CAD, Heft 111, S. 3-9
ISSN: 1867-9323
The lack of connectivity is one of the impediments to progress for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - the countries of the South Caucasus (SC) region. Due to open conflicts and political tensions, cooperation between the three has been extremely difficult. However, there are examples of positive bilateral cooperation, mostly in infrastructure-related projects, as all three countries are trying to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and cargo, to enhance trade relations and to diversify their trading partners. Thus, it is no surprise that countries in the SC have expressed interest in participating in China's Belt and Road Initiative. The initiative may lead to improved cross-country coordination, and the countries in the SC may eventually be able to harmonize their trade policies under one umbrella. Achieving both of these goals involves the development of soft infrastructure tools and building and improving a hard infrastructure. Soft infrastructure tools, such as well-established legal and regulatory frameworks, as well as a good hard infrastructure are much needed in the SC.
SSRN
Working paper
In: Caucasus analytical digest: CAD, Band 111, S. 3-9
ISSN: 1867-9323
World Affairs Online
2018 Spring. ; Includes bibliographical references. ; This dissertation is composed of three essays which examine the impact of financial integration and trade liberalization. Chapter I investigates the effect of financial openness on labor share of income by using four measures of the labor share of income: one unadjusted and three adjusted measures of income share which account for earnings from the self-employed workers. The author also uses both measures of capital account openness: de jure and de facto indicators. The empirical work is applied for a panel dataset of 30 countries during the period of 1970 – 2013. Despite using different measurement methods of the labor share of income and financial openness, the results from all specifications support the hypothesis that financial integration leads to a decline in the labor share of income for the all countries sample. Chapter II examines the macro-economic performance of Vietnam through the six phases of Doi Moi reform, and analyzes the impact of external liberalization on economic growth, aggregate demand, employment and income distribution. The decomposition of aggregate demand suggests that private investment was the most important determinant of Vietnamese economic growth during the period of 1994 – 2011, while government expenditure has become more significant since 2005, and the external sector together with government expenditure are the important driving factors of Vietnamese economic growth since 2012. The decomposition of overall labor productivity highlighted the fact that sectoral productivity growth of the service sector plays an important role in the improvement of overall labor productivity in Vietnam. Chapter III aims to investigate the impacts of external liberalization on Vietnamese economic growth and industrial performance at both regional and provincial levels. To this end, the author reviews regional and provincial economic and industrial performance in Vietnam during the period of vigorous reforms of the Doi Moi and external liberalization (1995-2015). The paper employs the fixed effect regression to test the relation of economic growth, industrial performance and trade liberalization at both regional and provincial levels. The estimation results suggest that FDI has positive and strongly significant impact on economic growth of five economic regions: The Red River Delta, Northern midlands and mountain areas, North Central area and Central Coastal area, South East and Mekong River Delta. The study suggests that FDI inflows and trade openness play very important role in accelerating economic growth and industrial performance at both the regional and provincial levels in Vietnam. Regions and provinces with better infrastructure seem to get more benefit from FDI and trade openness, which suggests that provincial authorities should invest in building new and more modern infrastructure and also formulating rules and regulations governing FDI inflows.
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In: Research Collection School Of Economics
We embed financial frictions and sector-specific minimum investment requirements (MIR) in a two-factor, two-sector, overlapping-generation model and showthat whether trade integration leads to convergence of the income levels among member states depends on their level of financial development. It helps reconcilethe mixed empirical evidence on trade integration and income dynamics in differentgroups of countries from the institutional perspective. In the recent decades, trade globalization has allowed developed countries to specialize towards the high-MIR, high-return production stages and tasks through international fragmentation of production and global sourcing. In our model, the "sectors" can be interpreted broadly as production stages and tasks. Free trade mayinduce the more financially developed countries to specializefully in the high-MIR,high-return "sector", which fundamentally changes the credit market condition and the way the interest rate is determined. In this case, free trade may amplify rather than eliminate the global imbalances (a phenomenon of the large capital flows from developing to developed countries observed in the recent years), opposite to the findings of Antras and Caballero (2009, Journal of Political Economy). This way, we argue that trade and financial integration should be analyzed jointly and trade-driven structural changes may reshape our understanding of capital flows.
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Die zunehmende Globalisierung der Märkte, unter anderem durch ansteigenden Handel von Güter und Dienstleisungen und damit einhergehenden Zunahme von ausländischen Investitionen ist eine der größten Triebkräfte der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Dies gilt für Industrieländer als auch für Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer. Diese voranschreitenden integrativen Entwicklungen bergen jedoch neben zahlreichen positiven Effekten Risiken für die beteiligten Länder. Erhöhte Arbeitsteilung und Konkurrenz sowie Verbreitung von ökonomischen Schocks über Ländergrenzen hinweg, können zu erhöhter Unsicherheit und veränderten Marktbedingungen führen. Diese Risiken können wiederum durch die zusätzlichen Instrumente der liberalisierten Kapitalmärkte zur Risikostreuung und -minderung abgefedert und vermindert werden. ; Globalisation consists of many small components and every component entails different effects. The main part of globalisation is international integration of goods, service, financial and factor markets. This integration is accompanied by international trade in goods, services and finance. According to the WTO Trade Report (2008), the increase in international trade exceeded the growth in global output in the year 2007 by 2 percentage points. A further prominent aspect of globalisation is the increase and composition of international capital flows. Foreign direct investment increased during the 1990s by more than 20 % and thereby exceeded international portfolio flows (WTO 2008). Both integration processes have lead to more efficient allocation of economic resources and greater levels of output. However, an additional result of the international trade integration is higher uncertainty due to intensified production specialization, increased competition and economic cross-country spillovers. Various groups of individuals such as workers, firm owners and political leaders are differently affected by these risks. Yet, financial integration offers the possibility to diversify these new arising risks. Again, the affected groups benefit differently from these diversification possibilities. Generally, the present work analyses the diverse impact of international integration on workers, firm owners and on country patterns. In particular, the consequences of proceeding international integration on risk sharing for the respective groups are emphasized.
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In: European research studies, Band XVIII, Heft 2, S. 97-106
ISSN: 1108-2976
In: Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS 2018/63
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Working paper
In: Asian Security Studies; China, the United States, and South-East Asia, S. 56-69