In this article Dr Pribicevic analyzes reasons for difficult and slow transition in Serbia. Twelve years after the breaking down of authoritarian regime the Serbian population is completely disappointed. New authorities was promising higher standard, lower unemployment, quicker enter in to the EU, tough fight with corruption and organized crime. When it didn't happen even after the ten years big expectations were changed with disappointment and dissatisfaction directed against the parties which ruled the country after the 2000. On the elections hold in May 2012 Democratic party and its leader Boris Tadic lost elections and new government was created by Serbian Progressive Party, Socialist party of Serbia and United Regions of Serbia. Three main political reasons caused difficult and slow transition in Serbia. First, complete preoccupation with Kosovo problem and constant conditioning of Serbian European road with so called normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina slower down reforms and dealing with all other problems in society, Second, constant conflicts between so- called democratic parties which ran Serbia after 2000 and Third, slow transformation of the parties which ruled the Serbia during the 90' produced situation in which ruling parties after 2000 didn't have normal incentive and corrective coming from opposition. Only after the Serbian Progressive Party, created after the split of extreme nationalistic Serbian Radical Party, adopted main postulates of democracy and main elements of Tadic's foreign policy, first real change occurred in Serbia, twelve years after the breaking down of previous authoritarian regime. Quicker approach to EU and solvation of Kosovo issue remains the main challenge for the new government. Better life of Serbian citizens is mainly related to the solvation of these issues.
The text is re-examining the previously established dilemma related to whether Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija) is the country of second demographic transition, i.e.: has the transition been de-blocked, under the assumption that this is a worldwide historical process of transformation of industrialized countries. The last thesis, around which there exists a lot of controversy in the contemporary population theory, is however not dealt with in detail; to the contrary, it is used as the general theoretical framework for the exploration of the most recent tendencies in the transformation of nuptiality and fertility regime in Serbia, as well as in the western and countries in post-socialist transformation. Special attention is given to the ideational changes, more precisely to the specific features of the value profile of the Serbian population, which is one of the most important determinants of the societal framework, that acts in the back of the afore mentioned aggregate demographic indicators. Finally, the hypothesis is posed (which should be further investigated by means of in-depth research and complementary approach) that the speeding-up of the second demographic transition and intensification of the individualisation not only of the partnership but of the parenthood as well, accompanied with the rise of living standard and social support to balancing work and family, would have produced important emancipating and, concomitantly, positive socioeconomic and demographic effects.
This paper will assess the results of transition in the Yugoslav successor states using objective and subjective criteria. Four objective criteria related to economic growth will be used to compare economic performance in Yugoslavia and its successor states; 1. Speed of recovery after war/change in system, 2. Absolute growth rates, 3. Relative growth rates, 4. Place in world development. This will be supplemented by a survey of public opinion conducted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.All the four objective criteria show that the Yugoslav economy performed much better than the economies of its successor states. The survey shows that only 20 percent of population are happy with the results of transition in South Eastern European countries, while 64 percent are unhappy and 16 percent are undecided. In the former Yugoslavia much less than 20 percent of population are happy with the changes brought by the transition.
Od 1990. godine, čitav region Istočne i Jugoistočne Evrope počeo je sa transformacijom svojih ekonomija iz centralno planskog sistema u tržišni, što se označava pojmom tranzicija. Postavka istraživačke studije je sagledavanje stanja sektora poljoprivrede Republike Srbije i Bosne i Hercegovine, koji su prošli kroz proces ekonomske tranzicije. Ideja tranzicije privrede, odnosno poljoprivrede je rast proizvodnje i BDP, povećanje efikasnosti i ostvarivanje boljih proizvodno-ekonomskih performansi. Cilj istraživanja je utvrditi da li je i u kojoj meri tranzicija poljoprivrede dovela do njenog razvoja, koji su propusti napravljeni i kakve mere agrarne politike kreirati u funkciji daljeg razvoja poljoprivrede i ruralnih područja. U izvođenju vrednosnih sudova i kritičkih zapažanja celokupnog procesa tranzicije agrosektora korišćene su određene naučne metode poput naučnog studiranja, indikatori, grafički metod, statistički metod, deskriptivna analiza i sinteza, komparatvini metod i drugi naučni metodi. Strategija poljoprivredne tranzicije u bivšim socijalističkim zemljama imala je za cilj poboljšanje efikasnosti i produktivnosti poljoprivrede zamenom institucionalnih i organizacionih karakteristika komandne ekonomije sa atributima pozajmljenim iz prakse tržišne ekonomije. Transformacija od kolektivne do efikasnije individualizovane poljoprivrede (privatizacija), koja će ostvarivati veći nivo prihoda je krajnji cilj. Tranziciju poljoprivrede prati nepovoljna vlasnička struktura i niska produktivnost, neefikasnost agrarne politike, spor razvoj institucija podrške, neadekvatan zakonodavni okvir i neuspešna privatizacija. Proces privatizacije obeležen je sa mnogo kontroverzi i zloupotreba, pa je i to imalo negativan odraz na ukupne efekte. Pored nabrojanog, efekti tranzicije poljoprivrede se ogledaju i u smanjenom obimu investicija, padu stočarske proizvodnje, spoljnotrgovinska razmena uglavnom sirovina i proizvoda niskog stepena finalizacije, depopulaciji sela, nepovoljnoj agrarnoj strukturi, malim pomacima na planu podiznja konkurentnosti i produktivnosti i nekonzistentnoj agrarnoj politici. Ni poljoprivredno zadrugarstvo nije revitalizovano, a kamoli ostvarilo neki značajan uspeh, tim pre, jer nije vraćeno poljuljano poverenje u zadružni oblik organizovanja, niti su zadružni principi usvojeni. Prelazak na tržišnu ekonomiju ostavio je Srbiju i Bosnu i Hercegovinu daleko iza najuspešnijih zemalja Centralne i Istočne Evrope. BiH zaostaje po mnogim pitanjima vezanim za strukturne reforme, koje su pratile ekonomsku tranziciju zemalja u regionu. U Republici Srbiji je stanje nešto bolje, ali svakako ispod očekivanja i s velikim kašnjenjima, pa su samim tim pozitivni efekti značajno slabiji. Stanje u BiH u posttranzicionom periodu je takvo da nedostaje institucionalna podrška i podsticajne mere agrarne politike na svim nivoima, počev od države preko kantona i opština, a tržišne reforme poljoprivrednog sektora nailaze na probleme i zastoje. Tranzicija poljoprivrede u BiH nije donela očekivane efekte, s obzirom da nije modernizovana, niti je zasnovana na efikasnosti, konkurentnosti, intenzivnosti i tržišnosti. Nešto bolja situacija je u Republici Srbiji, ali svakako nije razvijen sektor poljoprivrede, niti su u potpunosti ostvareni zacrtani ciljevi tranzicije. ; Since 1990, the entire region of Eastern and Southeastern Europe has begun to transform its economies from the central planning system to the marketplace, which is referred to as the concept of transition. The research study setting is to look at the state of the agriculture sector of the Republic of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which went through the process of economic transition. The idea of a transition of the economy, that is agriculture, is the growth of production and GDP, increasing efficiency and achieving better productioneconomic performance. The aim of the research is to determine whether and to what extent the transition of agriculture has led to its development, what omissions have been made and what measures of agrarian policy are to be created in the function of further development of agriculture and rural areas. Certain scientific methods such as scientific study, indicators, graphic method, statistical method, descriptive analysis and synthesis, comparative methods and other scientific methods have been used in performing value judgments and critical observations of the whole process of transition of agrosectors. The agricultural transition strategy in the former socialist countries aimed to improve the efficiency and productivity of agriculture by replacing the institutional and organizational characteristics of the command economy with attributes borrowed from the practice of a market economy. Transformation from collective to more efficient individualized agriculture (privatization), which will achieve higher level of income is the ultimate goal. The transition to agriculture is accompanied by an unfavorable ownership structure and low productivity, inefficiency of agrarian policy, slow development of support institutions, inadequate legislative framework and unsuccessful privatization. The privatization process was marked with a lot of controversy and abuse, which also had a negative impact on the overall effects. In addition to the above, the effects of agriculture transition are reflected in the reduced volume of investments, the decline in livestock production, the foreign trade of mostly raw materials and products of low level of finalization, depopulation of the village, unfavorable agrarian structure, small shifts in raising competitiveness and productivity and inconsistent agricultural policy. Even agricultural cooperatives were not revitalized, let alone achieved some significant success, the sooner because no shattered confidence in the cooperative form of organization was returned, nor cooperative principles were adopted. The transition to the market economy left Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina far behind the most successful countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Bosnia and Herzegovina lags behind many issues related to structural reforms, which have followed the economic transition of countries in the region. In the Republic of Serbia, the situation is somewhat better, but certainly below expectations and with big delays, so the positive effects are significantly weaker. The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the post-transition period is such that institutional support and incentive measures of agrarian policy at all levels, starting from the state through cantons and municipalities, are lacking, and market reforms of the agricultural sector are facing problems and delays. The transit of agriculture in Bosnia and Herzegovina did not produce the expected effects, as it was not modernized nor based on efficiency, competitiveness, intensity and marketability. There is a somewhat better situation in the Republic of Serbia, but the agriculture sector is certainly not developed, and the goals of transition have not been fully met.
The author argues that in the debates about "democratic transition" of post- socialist societies the importance of development of state of law for the formation of democracy has not been sufficiently accounted for. The absence of state of law results in the formation of authoritarian structures of politi power which in the long run obstruct the process of democratization. Those structures include the concentration of political power in the hands of charismatic leaders, the transformation of political into economic power, the formation of clientelist structures, the development of a system of privileges and corruption, and the break-down of the state monopoly of the means of violence, resulting in the "refeudalization" of political power. In conclusion the author describes two developmental options for the post-socialist societies: the formation of a "Latin American" type of authoritarian-populist regimes or the gradual transformation towards a Western type of state of law and liberal democracy, initiated by the pressures from the international environment and internal forces. (SOI : PM: S. 85)
Постсоцијалистичка трансформација у Србији је, као носилац многобројних и разноврсних промена и новина, утицала и на појаву посебних категорија губитника и добитника транзиције. Параметри на основу којих су ове категорије препознате пружају могућност идентификације припадника овог друштва са једном од њих. У овом раду се представљају аналитички појмови који су погодни за разматрање дате идентификације, као и проблеми који се том приликом могу јавити, а који указују на комплексност овог феномена. Категорије губитника и добитника транзиције постоје онолико дуго колико траје и сам процес друштвене трансформације, што значи да су ефемерне. Ипак, то не значи и да су ирелевантне, с обзиром на то да представљају свест о себи, као и о другоме, у једном временском периоду који карактеришу важна социјална, економска, политичка и културна превирања. ; Post-socialist transformation in Serbia has introduced various changes and novelties including a formation of special categories of losers and winners of transition. The parameters defining these categories allow a possibility of identification with either one within the society. This paper presents analytical terms appropriate for discussing the given identification, as well as problems associated with it, further pointing out to the complexity of this issue. The categories of losers and winners of transition are ever-lasting, accompanying a process of social transformation itself. This however does not imply they are irrelevant considering they represent a sense of self and others in time characterized by important economic, political and cultural turbulences.
Postsocijalističke privrede su početkom devedesetih godina dvadesetog veka započele tranziciju u kapitalistički sistem i intenzivnije uključivanje u procese globalizacije. Region Zapadnog Balkana je u tom periodu bio zahvaćen političkom i društvenom nestabilnošću koja se nepovoljno odrazila na ekonomske reforme i međunarodnu poziciju zemalja regiona. Glavni problem sa kojim su se zemlje regiona Zapadnog Balkana suočile bio je tehnološko zaostajanje i nedostatak domaće akumulacije. Preovladao je stav da će priliv stranih direktnih investicija pokrenuti ekonomski rast i tehnološku modernizaciju proizvodnje i omogućiti uspešno uključivanje u procese globalizacije. Kako bi se unapredila međunarodna konkurentnost zemalja Zapadnog Balkana, završetak tranzicionih reformi je označen kao prioritetan korak. Predmet istraživanja disertacije je teorijsko razmatranje i empirijsko utvrđivanje efekata tranzicije i globalizacije na konkurentnost zemalja Zapadnog Balkana tokom prve dve decenije XXI veka. U sprovedenom istraživanju, jedanaest privreda Centralne i Istočne Evrope je iskorišćeno kao osnov za poređenje i tumačenje rezultata za pet zemalja Zapadnog Balkana. Empirijski rezultati u disertaciji pokazuju statistički značajan pozitivan uticaj tranzicije i globalizacije na unapređenje konkurentnosti zemalja regiona Zapadnog Balkana. ; Post-socialist states began the transition process to a capitalism and more intensive integration in the processes of globalization in the early 1990s. During that period, the Western Balkans region was affected by political and social instability, which adversely reflected to economic reforms and the international position of the countries in the region. The main problem the countries of the Western Balkans region faced was technological stagnancy and a lack of domestic accumulation. The prevailing view is that foreign direct investment inflows will drive economic growth and technological modernization of production and enable successfully integration this group of countries in the processes of globalization. In order to improve the international competitiveness of the Western Balkan countries, the finishing of transition reforms has been identified as a priority step. The subject of the PhD thesis is theoretical consideration and empirical determination of the effects of transition and globalization on the competitiveness of the Western Balkan countries during the first two decades of the 21st century. In the research that carried out, eleven economies of Central and Eastern Europe were used as a base for comparing and interpreting the results of the Western Balkans countries. Empirical results obtained in the researching part of the doctoral dissertation show a statistically significant positive impact of transition and globalization on improving the competitiveness of the states of the Western Balkans region.
Predmet istraživanja doktorske disertacije odnosi se na analizu značaja i mehanizama na koji institucionalna obeležja utiču na efikasnost nacionalnih ekonomija. Pritom, cilj je da se istraživanjem identifikuju relevantne normativne i pozitivne pozicije u pogledu uloge koju institucije imaju u ekonomskim procesima, kao i njihov međusobni odnos i relativna važnost pri uticaju na ekonomske performanse, sa posebnim osvrtom na iskustva privrednih sistema zemalja u tranziciji. Iz tog razloga, analizirane su osobenosti institucija kao jedinica ekonomske analize, raznovrsnost elemenata institucionalne strukture, kroz, naročit, osvrt na interakciju koja se pojavljuje između formalnih i neformalnih institucionalnih pravila. Uslovljenost ekonomskih performansi institucionalnim svojstvima analizirana je iz perspektive teorije transakcionih troškova, kao i teorije vlasničkih prava i mehanizmima kojima oni ostvaruju uticaj na ekonomske performanse. Iz razloga što značajan deo institucionalne strukture nastaje, ali se i menja, u okviru političkog sistema, efekti na ekonomsku aktivnost posmatrani su kroz uticaje koji nastaju kao posledica specifičnosti političkih institucija, odnosno, njihove stabilnosti, forme i centralizovanosti, kao i kvaliteta javnog upravljanja, uticaja rent-seeking-a i političkih konjunkturnih ciklusa. S obzirom da su postojanost i dinamika integralna svojstva svakog segmenta institucionalne strukture, deo istraživanja je orijentisan na analizu osnovnih elemenata, tipova i teorija institucionalnih promena, zavisnost promene institucija od istorijskog institucionalnog, formalnog i neformalnog, nasleđa, kontroverzi u pogledu transplantacije institucija, kao i uzroka institucionalne histereze i neuspeha. Na osnovu empirijskog istraživanja odnosa ekonomskih performansi i institucionalnog kvaliteta, utvrđeno je da nivo per capita dohotka odlučujuće zavisi od kvaliteta institucionalne strukture, efikasne zaštite vlasničkih prava, usklađenosti između formalnih i neformalnih pravila, čime institucionalne promene u pravcu unapređenja svih institucionalnih segmenata predstavljaju neophodnu pretpostavku efikasnijoj ekonomskoj aktivnosti. ; This paper refers to the analysis of the importance of the institutions and the mechanisms through which the institutional characteristics influence the efficiency of national economies. In this context, the main goals of the research are to identify and explain relevant normative and positive aspects of institutional theory, the way in which institutions affect economic processes, as well as the interrelation and relative importance of different institutional units in their influence on economic performance, with special emphasis on the experience of transition countries. For this purpose, the author has reviewed the uniqueness of institutions as units of economic analysis, the diversity of the elements of institutional structure, with the particular accent on interaction between formal and informal institutional rules. Dependence of economic performance upon the institutional characteristics has been analyzed from the perspective of transaction-cost theory, as well as the theory of property rights. Special attention is paid to the mechanism through which the property rights exercise their influence upon the efficient operation of economic system. Bearing in mind the fact that the important part of institutional structure is made within a political process, the effects of institutions are observed through the influences derived from political stability, political regime and the level of administrative and fiscal centralization. The quality of governance, the impact of rent-seeking activities and the influence coming from political and business cycles are additional important features in this regard. Since the institutions display the persistence and changeability at the same time, the important part of the research is dedicated to the analysis of different types and theories of institutional changes, the dependency of changes on the past formal and informal institutional development, the issues related to the transplantation of institutions and the causes of institutional hysteresis. Based on the empirical part of the thesis, we have reached the conclusion that the level of per capita income largely depends on the quality of institutions, especially the protection of property rights, as well as the harmonization between formal and informal institutions. This makes good institutions a decisive and long-lasting factor of the success and efficiency of national economies.
The paper offers a critical analysis of the strategic framework for long-term economic development of Serbia, of the role of strategic development in the success of the transition process, and the consequences of the lack of a development strategy. The strategy of long-term economic development of Serbia, as a programe intended to designate the economic and development policy of the state, is analysed with the aim of finding an acceptable formulation of development strategy. The authors consider various approaches and propose a strategy for Serbia in the period of transition towards market economy. They also point out that, in the period of transition from a government-planned towards a market economy, strategy should be given greater importance in period that do not represent turning points, because of the greater possibility of incorrect policy making, potential conflicts of interest groups, reaching sustainable development, and maximizing prosperity. The authors take into account the advantages and disadvantages of the radical and of the gradualist approach to transition and propose formulating a development strategy that would contain combined elements of plan and market mechanism. They believe that the process of transition lacks a clear development strategy, and that the quality of the existing development strategy of Serbia until 2010 is such it cannot be understood as a serious approach to the transition issue. The authors stress the consequences of underground transition without a development strategy, that include inappropriate dynamic and sequence of reforms< a lack of coordination between development policy, macroeconomic policy, market reforms, and spatial planning policy< higher costs of transition, insufficient rate of economic growth, etc. They offer proposals for a comprehensive development framework (CDF) and for strategic planning of territorial industrial development. ; Urednici: Nada Milašin, Nenad Spasić, Miodrag Vujošević, Mila Pucar ; Ev.br.projekta 1383 "'Planiranje i upravljanje razvojem u uslovima prelaska na tržišnu privredu privredu- institucionalno prilagođavanje praksi i standardima EU", Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu i Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2002-2005. ; Posebna izdanja 44
Social reforms had an important position in the process of transition changes in Serbia in the previous decade. Their strategic framework and aims have been defined in the first years after the 'democratic changes' of 2000 and their realization followed by a series of problems. The transition from the 'socialist welfare state' to the concept of 'active social policy' has been in compliance with the accepted model of (liberal) reforms and changes in the institutional sphere. Analysis of effects and achievements have pointed to an inadeaqucy of the accepted model and deficiencies in the practice. From the point of view of the current situation and expected changes in the future, there is an obvious need for a comprehensive evaluation of cause of (un)success of social reforms. The reason for that lies in the elimination of insufficiencies and creation of a basis for the construction of a system in compliance with the national objectives, the European standards and global challenges.
