Suchergebnisse

Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Dedication -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Explanations of Turnout -- 3 Restricting Access to the Ballot Box: The Impact of Registration Laws on Turnout -- 4 Placing the United States in Context: A Comparative Look at Electoral Systems -- 5 Winner-Take-All Elections, Part I: The Electoral College: Strategy, Mobilization, and Turnout -- 6 Winner-Take-All Elections, Part II: Competition, Spending, and Turnout in U. S. House Elections -- 7 The Separation of Powers: Divided Government, Responsiveness, Accountability, and Turnout -- 8 Conclusion: The Future of Electoral Reform in the United States -- Appendix A -- Appendix B -- Appendix C -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Index

An election outcome reflects institutional, behavioural and attitudinal influences. We set out a model showing it is a function of the electoral system, the offices at stake and the number of parties competing as well as the choices of voters and the level of turnout. Therefore, any attempt to estimate the impact of increased turnout on an election outcome must go beyond a comparison of the party preferences of voters and non-voters. This paper presents a model which integrates six different types of influences that collectively determine election outcomes. It demonstrates empirically that maximum turnout falls well short of 100 percent turnout. It also shows the effect of proportional representation and multiple parties in reducing the net benefit that any one party could expect from increased turnout and the inadequacy of using shares of the popular vote to predict increased turnout effects in the United States. It leaves open the normative debate between advocates of civic participation and the libertarian value of being free not to vote.

Front Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Information -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- Introduction: Why Voter Mobilization Matters -- Evidence versus Received Wisdom -- Door-to-Door Canvassing -- Leaflets and Signage -- Direct Mail -- Commercial Phone Banks, Volunteer Phone Banks, and Robocalls -- Electronic Mail, Social Media, and Text Messaging -- Using Events to Draw Voters to the Polls -- Using Mass Media to Mobilize Voters -- Voter Registration and Voter Turnout -- Strategies for Effective Messaging -- What Works, What Doesn't, and What's Next -- Appendix A: Meta-Analysis of Door-to-Door Canvassing Experiments -- Appendix B: Meta-Analysis of Direct Mail Experiments -- Appendix C: Meta-Analysis of Phone-Call Experiments -- Notes -- Index -- Back Cover.

Although there is a widespread belief that uneven voter turnout leads to biased outcomes in American democracy, existing empirical tests have found few effects. By offering a systematic account of how and where turnout matters in local politics, this book challenges much of what we know about turnout in America today. It demonstrates that low and uneven turnout, a factor at play in most American cities, leads to sub-optimal outcomes for racial and ethnic minorities. Low turnout results in losses in mayoral elections, less equitable racial and ethnic representation on city councils, and skewed spending policies. The importance of turnout confirms long held suspicions about the under-representation of minorities and raises normative concerns about local democracy. Fortunately, this book offers a solution. Analysis of local participation indicates that a small change to local election timing - a reform that is cost effective and relatively easy to enact - could dramatically expand local voter turnout