Urban Unemployment Drives Urban Crime
In: Urban affairs quarterly, Band 24, Heft 2, S. 215-241
Burglary and robbery rates in St. Louis, Missouri, are investigated as functions of census unemployment levels taken in 1970 and 1980 for twelve yearly cross sections of crime rates, with all rates aggregated to the level of census tracts for analyses. The relationship of burglary and robbery rates to unemployment is found to be positive, and the interactive (logged) model is found to be the one most consistent with theory as well as the best predictive model. The magnitude of unemployment effects is large, and the policy implication is that urban areas fighting crime would benefit substantially from successfully targeted employment programs.